Weekdays Thread (23rd to 26th of January 2023)

[Mojoguy]

27 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

STRANGE WORLD dropped 96% from last week. 😱

$10 per theater average. So about 1 ticket sold for each theater. Why is it still around?🤔

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Alexdube]

$599.99M oh come on 😆

[upriser7]

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

[Sophia Jane]

30 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

if the movie always follow this way it will beating TGM,what i worried is that Antman's coming

But,they both disney's film ,so I think for the yearly champion,disney gonna do something

[The GOAT]

35 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

46 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

 

dont think itll be able to continue outperforming nwh after titanic, heres hoping the positive headlines from the past few days help a lot and it wont have to rely on late february gross to pass IW and maybe approach 700 

Edited January 24, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[The Dark Alfred]

A2 is borderline unwatchable in 2D standard screens. Most of its business is 3D driven. Its doing amazingly in IMAX and PLF screens and once it loses those, it will drop harder than NWH. The 700m dream is over with its first run.

Edited January 24, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[upriser7]

18 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

if the movie always follow this way it will beating TGM,what i worried is that Antman's coming

But,they both disney's film ,so I think for the yearly champion,disney gonna do something

If A2 outperforms NWH by 40% for rest of it's run, then it will fall slightly short of TGM by < $5M. I just hope it can touch $700M mark

[upriser7]

3 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

A2 is borderline unwatchable in 2D standard screens. Most of its business is 3D driven. Its doing amazingly in IMAX and PLF screens and once it loses those, it will drop harder than NWH. The 700m dream is over with its first run.

it's too early and premature to say that 700M dream is over.

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

Remember that NWH got a re release so that skews the numbers a bit.

[Godzilla]

Hopefully the BP nom means a lighter drop for A2 for this upcoming weekend to keep $700M+ alive.

[upriser7]

22 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Remember that NWH got a re release so that skews the numbers a bit.

this is without the re-release numbers. NWH was at 721M as of 6th Monday and it ended it's initial run at 804M. Re-release added another 9M.

 

NWH's weekly numbers and drops - 

 

 

Bit surprised that it didn't have a big drop in the week of Batman's release

Edited January 25, 2023 by upriser7
d

[Elessar]

2 hours ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

 

True but for the next 8(!) weeks NWH is not dropping more than 22%, a streak A2 probably won't match due to competition and loss of PLFs.

[kayumanggi]

By the way, PUSS IN BOOTS: TLW is going to dethrone BLACK ADAM for the 10th spot of 2022, right? 😂

[Cheddar Please]

1/20	20,133,106	598,409,459	-38.66%
1/24	6,100,000	604,509,459	-55.31%
1/27	15,200,000	619,709,459	-24.50%
1/31	4,500,000	624,209,459	-26.23%
2/03	11,400,000	635,609,459	-25.00%
2/07	3,200,000	638,809,459	-28.89%
2/10	8,000,000	646,809,459	-29.82%	Titanic Rerelease
2/14	2,500,000	649,309,459	-21.88%	Valentine's Day
2/17	5,500,000	654,809,459	-31.25%	Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd
2/21	2,325,000	657,134,459	-7.00%	President's Day
2/24	3,500,000	660,634,459	-36.36%	TGM crosses here (662.4)
2/28	1,200,000	661,834,459	-48.39%
TOTAL	18,700,000	680,534,459		Assumes constant 25% holds from here on out

Bringing back the drop prediction chart just to say that expecting it to stay anywhere close to 40% ahead of NWH for the rest of its run is pretty naive given that it has sub-20% holds from here on out. Even mid 20s drops for the rest of its run + less of an impact from Ant-Man and Titanic than expected (which in itself is quite optimistic) still only gets you to 680m

Edited January 25, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[Flip]

The goal for Avatar should be to drop around the level of NWH until Ant-Man, because after February 17th it's going to crater

[M37]

6 hours ago, upriser7 said:

A2 vs NWH comparison in post-holiday period so far -

 

Weekends:

4th weekend: A2 was 40% higher than NWH

5th weekend: A2 was 61% higher than NWH

6th weekend: A2 was 44% higher than NWH

 

I considered 4-day weekend for 5th weekend (MLK weekend )

 

Weekdays:

4th week: A2 was 48% higher than NWH

5th week: A2 was 53% higher than NWH

6th week: A2  is  62% higher than NWH (only Monday)

 

Atleast so far, A2 has been consistently outperforming by atleast 40% in every weekend, weekdays in the post-holidays period. NWH did $80M+ from here on for rest of the run. 

December opening films grossing more than 3x their MLK week gross for the rest of their runs, 2009 - 2020:

• Greatest Showman = 3.54x
• Avatar = 3.51x

The next highest in my data set is Jumanji TNL at 2.82x (nearly 25% lower), just to show how much an outlier Showman & Avatar are ... or at least were before last year

• Sing 2 = 3.45x
• NWH = 3.38x

And that's the issue: 2021 holidays into 2022 Jan and Feb were such anomaly, with COVID/Omicron concerns and even closures over the holidays into January delaying demand until later, plus an extremely weak release calendar. Showman and Avatar both dropped just ~15% over the MLK weekend, indicating the were already holding monsters, while Sing 2 and NWH were -31% and -38% respectively, only later playing catch-up and posting a lot of sub-20% starting 2 weeks later. There is absolutely no reason to expect Avatwo to follow that kind of nearly flat line trajectory for no particular reason starting in week 7, and the -38.7% drop this past weekend suggests it may not even get to 2x MLK week, much less 3x

 

Best to just remove any December 2021 movie from comp lists, because they won't be useful for mapping out future January/February late legs

[Joyous Legion]

TNL would have gone past 3 without covid tbf, and Puss looks set for over 3x (thinking 140 cume on sun for bit over 13M 7day, would need to add 41 or ~3.1x so 24% drops).   
 

But yeah the 2021 comps are about to get seriously messed up by Canadia