Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[Ronin46]

32 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol at studio Sunday hold for A2. Anyways, it’s still got a decent lead on TGM with a higher grossing equivalent weekend. People claiming 700 is out just isn’t true. It has to not crumble over AM weekend, but we’ll see. 

 

Just looking up Top Gun Maverick 7th weekend that Avatar 2 looks like beating by a little bit.

 

Thor 144M

Minions 46M

Top Gun 15.50M

Elvis 11.2M

Jurassic 8.6M

Black Phone 7.8M 

 

Overall Weekend 238M

 

Projection for this weekend 72M

 

Even taking out Thors openings it would be 94M

 

Avatar 2 has done very well domestically. its done great overseas. Its a well made and well recieved movie. But the lack of competition has really helped it. That will come to an end once ANT3 starts but it has 2 more weekends before that. 

[M37]

53 minutes ago, todos said:

There’s been so many can’ts, won’ts, impossibles with this movie on BOT (& everywhere) that’s it’s like a sweet song of irony every time you see one repeated. JC man. 

Or I dunno, we've reached the part of the run where the above average performance is already baked in, and with each passing week and reducing gross the potential variance is getting smaller and smaller?  Last couple of weeks the "naysayers" have been pretty much spot on with forecasts, no?

 

We're looking at $20M+ week here, probably a $15-$16M total the following week, and the difference between a 2x/3x or 3x/4x from that point is .... only $15M. Here's why NWH is a not a good comp from this point forward

 

[Sophia Jane]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Just looking up Top Gun Maverick 7th weekend that Avatar 2 looks like beating by a little bit.

 

Thor 144M

Minions 46M

Top Gun 15.50M

Elvis 11.2M

Jurassic 8.6M

Black Phone 7.8M 

 

Overall Weekend 238M

 

Projection for this weekend 72M

 

Even taking out Thors openings it would be 94M

 

Avatar 2 has done very well domestically. its done great overseas. Its a well made and well recieved movie. But the lack of competition has really helped it. That will come to an end once ANT3 starts but it has 2 more weekends before that. 

If JC can focus on story in Avatar 3 and make another masterpiece like Terminator 2 and make WW audience burst into tears,$3.5B is not even a problem for him ,China will give it $800m

Edited January 29, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[The Dark Alfred]

680m is where A2 is headed, it's very clear at this point. Once its loses PLF and IMAX, the drops will be heavier. TGM talk is nonsense, dreamland fantasy. I'm not ruling out 700m with a future re-release, but not reaching it during its first run.

[Sophia Jane]

I think James Cameron lost his power of making audience burst into tears in Avatar 2

Jake Sully’s son dead in Avatar :The Way of Water make me no crying and not even drop a single tear,but when I saw Arnold dead in Terminator 2,and Jack dead in Titanic,I really sad and depression for a real long time…I remeber when I first saw Titanic as a kid ,I even want Titanic become  a sci-fi movie and let Jack back to life in Titanic 2:The Return of Jack….That’s the fool thinking in my childhood but that’s speaking cameron’s power of emotion buliding…but I saw his power lost in Avatar 2

If Jake Sully really dead in Avatar 3,I really hope he can do same thing like he used to do…

[Ronin46]

48 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol at studio Sunday hold for A2. Anyways, it’s still got a decent lead on TGM with a higher grossing equivalent weekend. People claiming 700 is out just isn’t true. It has to not crumble over AM weekend, but we’ll see. 

 

Agreed. Its now 1% of 1% of 1%. Next weekend it will be 1% of 1% of 1% of 1%. It "beat" by a tiny amount on 7th weekend despite TGM having Thor opening against it. It will drop like a rock once ANT3 opens and it loses PLF screens (which TGM had to give way to much earlier). 

[M37]

44 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol at studio Sunday hold for A2. Anyways, it’s still got a decent lead on TGM with a higher grossing equivalent weekend. People claiming 700 is out just isn’t true. It has to not crumble over AM weekend, but we’ll see. 

It has to do more than just "not crumble": the competition and loss of premium screens would have to have no effect, to maintain the same -22% hold it had this weekend despite losing Dolby's next week (Cabin), some 3D screens the following week (Titanic), and all remaining PLFs the week after (Ant-Man). Basically sell an equivalent number of tickets for each of the next 3 weekends to compensate for loss of higher ATP shows, and with losing show volume overall. It's not impossible, but very very improbable given the current grossing level and trajectory

 

And even then, that -22% rate of decline for the entire rest of the run doesn't quite get all the way to $700M (close - $698).

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

I think James Cameron lost his power of making audience burst into tears in Avatar 2

Jake Sully’s son dead in Avatar :The Way of Water make me no crying and not even drop a single tear,but when I saw Arnold dead in Terminator 2,and Jack dead in Titanic,I really sad and depression for a real long time…I remeber when I first saw Titanic as a kid ,I even want Titanic become  a sci-fi movie and let Jack back to life in Titanic 2:The Return of Jack….That’s the fool thinking in my childhood but that’s speaking cameron’s power of emotion buliding…but I saw his power lost in Avatar 2

If Jake Sully really dead in Avatar 3,I really hope he can do same thing like he used to do…

opposite for me, t2 scene didn't make me cry

[Elessar]

10 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

I think James Cameron lost his power of making audience burst into tears in Avatar 2

Jake Sully’s son dead in Avatar :The Way of Water make me no crying and not even drop a single tear,but when I saw Arnold dead in Terminator 2,and Jack dead in Titanic,I really sad and depression for a real long time…I remeber when I first saw Titanic as a kid ,I even want Titanic become  a sci-fi movie and let Jack back to life in Titanic 2:The Return of Jack….That’s the fool thinking in my childhood but that’s speaking cameron’s power of emotion buliding…but I saw his power lost in Avatar 2

If Jake Sully really dead in Avatar 3,I really hope he can do same thing like he used to do…

 

I shed a tear (on my 2nd watch) as did many others based on accounts. No, it's no Titanic but Cameron still has the power.

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Elessar

[Sophia Jane]

10 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

I shed a tear (on my 2nd watch) as did many others based on accounts. No, it's no Titanic but Cameron still has the power.

 

Yeah he has…..I mean,Sully son’s dead doesn’t make me depression for a long time,like when I first saw Titanic as a kid,I saw Jack dead and it really made my whole day full of dark,I even don’t want to have lunch after saw Jack’s dead,and the emotion last at least one week and I moved on….For Sully’s son dead,I maybe a bit sad when I saw the scene,but I forget it after going out the theater and have a great dinner…so…that’s the difference

 I think it again and I thought maybe is the music’s power,My heart will go on is really emotional song but Avatar 2 don’t have same feeling’s background music

Edited January 29, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[MovieMan89]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

It has to do more than just "not crumble": the competition and loss of premium screens would have to have no effect, to maintain the same -22% hold it had this weekend despite losing Dolby's next week (Cabin), some 3D screens the following week (Titanic), and all remaining PLFs the week after (Ant-Man). Basically sell an equivalent number of tickets for each of the next 3 weekends to compensate for loss of higher ATP shows, and with losing show volume overall. It's not impossible, but very very improbable given the current grossing level and trajectory

 

And even then, that -22% rate of decline for the entire rest of the run doesn't quite get all the way to $700M (close - $698).

This is a very static way to look at box office. It can fall significantly worse than those holds during AM OW, but still make up for it with fantastic late leg holds. Everything about the performance of the film so far points to such late legs for it (just look at every other film above 4x on the list that was posted here of best blockbuster multis for proof of that). And I don’t know that losing PLF is a viable argument when TGM had just as much of a rep for being a PLF film and still did fantastic without it. 
 

It can fall 45% or a little worse against AM and still get to 700, depending on how the rest of these weekends shake out. It’s far from put a fork in 700 yet. Over TGM, yeah I said that was prob out last weekend. Two weeks from now may be a different story, but not right now. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

And of course the movie is bound to have a major re-expansion at some point, like  every other movie on this scale of gross gets. Not sure why some are completely ignoring the inevitable boost from that too. 

[MikeQ]

43 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Just looking up Top Gun Maverick 7th weekend that Avatar 2 looks like beating by a little bit.

 

Thor 144M

Minions 46M

Top Gun 15.50M

Elvis 11.2M

Jurassic 8.6M

Black Phone 7.8M 

 

Overall Weekend 238M

 

Projection for this weekend 72M

 

Even taking out Thors openings it would be 94M

 

Avatar 2 has done very well domestically. its done great overseas. Its a well made and well recieved movie. But the lack of competition has really helped it. That will come to an end once ANT3 starts but it has 2 more weekends before that. 

 

All good points. At the same time, it's worth remembering that this is the trade off that is made for big films that open during the winter holidays instead of the summer. There's a reason the summer is filled with blockbuster films every year - because even with the competition, the summer is an incredibly lucrative time of year. The market expands, as college students and kids get out for the summer, drive-in cinemas open, folks take time off work and enjoy summer holidays, etc.

 

Likewise, films benefit from the December holiday period, which is significantly boosted for about a 2-week period, and then rely on a quiet January to continue to leg out from there despite lack of summer weekdays, with good WOM or riding awards attention, etc.

 

They are different periods of the year that bring with them different advantages/disadvantages.

 

Peace,

Mike

[MovieMan89]

Earth Day weekend is the perfect spot for a big re-expansion back into a bunch of PLF/3D as well. Perfect marketing tie-in synergy. Couple weeks after Mario and a few weeks before summer onslaught. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

All good points. At the same time, it's worth remembering that this is the trade off that is made for big films that open during the winter holidays instead of the summer. There's a reason the summer is filled with blockbuster films every year - because even with the competition, the summer is an incredibly lucrative time of year. The market expands, as college students and kids get out for the summer, drive-in cinemas open, folks take time off work and enjoy summer holidays, etc.

 

Likewise, films benefit from the December holiday period, which is significantly boosted for about a 2-week period, and then rely on a quiet January to continue to leg out from there despite lack of summer weekdays, with good WOM or riding awards attention, etc.

 

They are different periods of the year that bring with them different advantages/disadvantages.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

My point was fairly simple. Imagine ANT3 opened this weekend and AV2 lost all its IMAX and PLF screens. What would the weekend be? Well Top Gun Maverick had that same scenario on its equivalent 7th weekend with Thor opening and held to 15M.

Summer v Christmas etc is a point but lack of competition is another even bigger point. That lack of competition is coming to an end in the next few weeks. We will see how the legs continue when no PLF screens are available.

[MikeQ]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

My point was fairly simple. Imagine ANT3 opened this weekend and AV2 lost all its IMAX and PLF screens. What would the weekend be? Well Top Gun Maverick had that same scenario on its equivalent 7th weekend with Thor opening and held to 15M.

Summer v Christmas etc is a point but lack of competition is another even bigger point. That lack of competition is coming to an end in the next few weeks. We will see how the legs continue when no PLF screens are available.

 

I suppose you could make that isolated comparison from weekend to weekend. The problem that arises when we do this is that  we ignore all context of time of year, the various factors that influence a films run and legs, why studios release films when they do, etc. This is why I spoke to the differences in summer films vs December holiday films, and more specifically, what blockbuster films capitalize on in those different periods.

 

To put it simply, to evaluate a run and how it will do moving forward, I'd much rather compare to similar films that opened in the same period, not a film that opened in a very different time of year. That's just my perspective.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

31 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Earth Day weekend is the perfect spot for a big re-expansion back into a bunch of PLF/3D as well. Perfect marketing tie-in synergy. Couple weeks after Mario and a few weeks before summer onslaught. 

 

late april?

way too late for a big re-expanson at that point, unless its a 2 million or so away from 700

they should just try a special edition in september instead of wasting time with that

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Sophia Jane said:

I think James Cameron lost his power of making audience burst into tears in Avatar 2

Jake Sully’s son dead in Avatar :The Way of Water make me no crying and not even drop a single tear,but when I saw Arnold dead in Terminator 2,and Jack dead in Titanic,I really sad and depression for a real long time…I remeber when I first saw Titanic as a kid ,I even want Titanic become  a sci-fi movie and let Jack back to life in Titanic 2:The Return of Jack….That’s the fool thinking in my childhood but that’s speaking cameron’s power of emotion buliding…but I saw his power lost in Avatar 2

If Jake Sully really dead in Avatar 3,I really hope he can do same thing like he used to do…

 

Didnt come close to crying during titanic or terminator 2,  but Tuk's "sully's stick together" got me teary-eyed

Edited January 29, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[titanic2187]

PIB is developing a monster-leg and I must say $200m is total possible. Glad to see a film achieve monster-legs run on Titanic's 25 years anniversary. TGS had similar run back in 2017, when Titanic was on its 20th anniversary.

 

The trend is now clear. A monster leg run is gonna happen whenever Titanic celebrate a major anniversary!   

 

[TwoMisfits]

Eagles have started great in this game.  Getting the ball 1st and scoring was always the way they needed to start this game to have a chance...