February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

40 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$12.5m for 80 For Brady, not the breakout some tracking suggested unfortunately, but still not bad. 

This is a weekend where you really wish the US market also published ticket sales figures. Knock at the Cabin has a Dolby screenings push, while 80 for Brady is selling a bunch of senior matinee tickets. That's $6.60 with tax at my local Cinemark (it's maybe $1-2 higher at the other big chains around here). Knock at the Cabin can make more with lower ticket sales. It would be interesting to know how close the two are in attendance.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[druv10]

Avatar 2

Friday 2.35M (+134%)
Saturday 5.398M (+130%)😲

Sunday 3.052M (-43%)

8th Weekend 10.8M (-32%)

 

Saturday jumps for Avatar have been absolutely crazy and then Disney with the usual low ball Sunday. I'm expecting 11-11.5M Weekend.

[GOGODanca]

That Sunday drop seems ridiculous considering no nfl games

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Avatar 2

Friday 2.35M (+134%)
Saturday 5.398M (+130%)😲

Sunday 3.052M (-43%)

8th Weekend 10.8M (-32%)

 

Saturday jumps for Avatar have been absolutely crazy and then Disney with the usual low ball Sunday. I'm expecting 11-11.5M Weekend.

 

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

That Sunday drop seems ridiculous considering no nfl games

Agreed. Should come up another $400-$500K, maybe even a bit more

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

It looked like it could go the way of TTP higher teens, but really was more a smaller scale Downton

 

Still a solid result for what is really a fairly niche release, certainly more than I was expecting 2 weeks ago 

Yes same here. I wonder if it’ll have a good hold next weekend with the Super Bowl. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Indians taking down Avatar 🙃

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[M37]

22 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

This is a weekend where you really wish the US market also published ticket sales figures. Knock at the Cabin has a Dolby screenings push, while 80 for Brady is selling a bunch of senior matinee tickets. That's $6.60 with tax at my local Cinemark (it's maybe $1-2 higher at the other big chains around here). Knock at the Cabin can make more with lower ticket sales. It would be interesting to know how close the two are in attendance.

 

 

Cabin also selling the majority of its tickets at the standard evening adult rate, so admit rate is probably very close, and Brady may have edged it out. EDIT - at $12.5M vs $14.2M, Brady almost certainly out-sold when you include all the EA shows

 

With that said, the amount spent on concession is very strongly correlated to ATP*, so from a profitability/health of theaters perspective, that Cabin will report a gross [edit] 13% higher is largely reflective of their relative impact on the theatrical market

 

*Exception for families/kids tickets, but the groups are on average larger - in that kids don't go to movies by themselves - so from a total ticket spend the correlation holds

Edited February 5, 2023 by M37
updated estimates

[Cooper Legion]

Brady should be pretty comfortably ahead on admits

[Dragoncaine]

Knock at the Cabin deserves better. Good movie, upper-tier Shyamalan

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Indians taking down Avatar 🙃

It was a bit crazy over the past month when all the articles were like "Why can't Bollywood movies do the business that Avatar 2 did in India"

 

SRK upon hearing that

 

12 days to overtake Avatar 2 lifetime and become the biggest Bollywood movie ever.

[M37]

Really our first dull/disappointing weekend of the new year (quite possibly hindered by weather)

 

AMWQ will carry February, but its fairly bleak beyond that top title until the release schedule gets charged in March, with four potential $40M openings in a row (all sequels: Creed, Scream, Shazam, Wick)

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Mr Roark]

40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Indians taking down Avatar 🙃

$2.174B WW and counting, not bad for a 2/10 flick. 🙃😅

[Issac Newton]

Weekend Breakdown

 

1.) Knock at the Cabin (Uni) 3,643 theaters, Fri $5.42M, Sat $5.47M Sun $3.3M 3-day $14.2M/Wk 1

 

2.) 80 for Brady (Par) 3,912 theaters, Fri $4.7M, Sat $4.55M, Sun $3.25M 3-day $12.5M/Wk 1

 

3.) Avatar: The Way of Water (Dis) 3,310 theaters (-290), Fri $2.4M (-35%), Sat $5.4M Sun $3M 3-day $10.8M (-32%), Total $636.4M /Wk 8

 

4.) Puss in Boots: Last Wish (Uni) 3,290 theaters (-162), Fri $1.69M (-31%), Sat $3.7M Sun $2.46M 3-day $7.95M (-24%) , Total $151.2M/Wk 7

 

5.) BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas (Tra) 1,125 theaters, Fri $1.68M, Sat $2.7M Sun $1.9M 3-day $6.3M, Total $9.1M/Wk 1

 

6.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,407 (-550) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-43%), Sat $1.9M Sun $1.1M 3-day $4.1M (-37%) Total $53M/Wk 6

 

7.) M3GAN (Uni) 2,835 theaters (-581), Fri $950K (-43%), Sat $1.8M Sun $1M 3-day $3.8M (-39%), Total $87.5M/Wk 5

 

8.) Missing (Sony) 2,565 (-460) theaters, Fri $945K Sat $1.79M Sun $990K 3-day $3.7M (-34%) Total $23M/Wk 3

 

9.) Chosen Season 3 (Fath) 1,546 theaters, Fri $2.27M, Sat $783K Sun $587K 3-day $3.64M, Total $5.3M/Wk 1

 

10.) Pathaan (YSR) 700 (+5) theaters, Fri $686K, Sat $1.1M Sun $841K, 3-day $2.7M (-61%), Total $14.2M/Wk 2

[Spidey Freak]

11 hours ago, Chaz said:

Am I going senile? 2003 was a landmark year for gays in mainstream media. Queer Eye was a hit. Bravo premiered that gay dating show. Metrosexual became a thing. Ellen was an out lesbian and premiered a hit talk show. Christina Aguilera had a gay couple kissing and a trans woman in the video for her hit single “Beautiful.” 
 

I was in high school and clearly felt a shift.

 

TBF all of your examples are reality television (except for Xtina in which case you need to summon @Claire of Themyscira every time she's brought up). Reality TV was miles ahead of the rest of media in terms of rep. The Real World, Survivor and The Amazing Race always had gay contestants right from the start in every season, with Richard Hatch winning Survivor Season 1 in 2000 and Reichen & Chip winning TAR Season 4 in 2003 (speaking of the year). But since the reality tv format allowed for multiple contestants/castmates, it created room for "minority tokens" and not come across as off-putting to straight, white people.

 

Queer Eye originally being Queer Eye for the Straight Guy highlights the point Webslinger was making that LGBT representation in the 90s/00s could only exist if its prime function was to cater to straight audiences.

[Issac Newton]

Better news? The fifth weekend of February for all films grossed $81M. That’s +103% ahead of the same frame in 2019 ($73.4M), even with 2020 ($80.7M) and +36% from last year ($59.7M).