THE LITTLE MERMAID | 271.5M overseas | 569.6M worldwide

[Issac Newton]

Indonesia OD ~ $350K+ at 1.5K shows

[Issac Newton]

Paris 14th - 1.900 (24 sites)

[Bob Train]

If Variety's 80 million is true...Then internationally, Fast X will probably repeat #1

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

If Variety's 80 million is true...Then internationally, Fast X will probably repeat #1

That was always expected. Fast movies are monster overseas. F9 was impacted by COVID more so overseas than domestic. 

[thajdikt]

Deadline saying 100M

[keysersoze123]

All these projections suck. Let us see what @charlie Jatinder comes up with. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

All these projections suck. Let us see what @charlie Jatinder comes up with. 

Too small and bad to really not bother. I could see something like 80-100 happen.

 

8 hours ago, Bob Train said:

If Variety's 80 million is true...Then internationally, Fast X will probably repeat #1

Is that just INT or worldwide? because most likely TLM DOM be enough to beat Fast X WW. Just eyeballing the numbers, something like 80-90M 2nd weekend for Fast X is likely INT, possibly lower.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Too small and bad to really not bother. I could see something like 80-100 happen.

 

Is that just INT or worldwide? because most likely TLM DOM be enough to beat Fast X WW. Just eyeballing the numbers, something like 80-90M 2nd weekend for Fast X is likely INT, possibly lower.

80m for fast would be high 60s % drop for the movie. That would be rough for sure. But its not shocking either. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

80m for fast would be high 60s % drop for the movie. That would be rough for sure. But its not shocking either. 

Yeah. The biggest drop should basically be China dropping by 80%, 1) its a 3 days 2nd weekend vs 5 days 1st & 2) 1st weekend had 520 day on SAT.

 

Asia should be dropping 65-70% as well and Europe probably in 50s. That would give $85M ish

[Godzilla]

$300M is a good target.

[The Dark Alfred]

I can see FAST X dropping really hard. Disney always underestimates, LM will start better than projected. Its legs will be questionable though, WoM will be mixed.

[charlie Jatinder]

I suppose since US is opening to 100M+ weekend, Europe & ANZ could pull something like 60M. From that 100M should be doable given Mexico & LATAM will be quite ok as well.

 

It sucks that we don’t have presales data in two of its biggest markets, UK & FR

[charlie Jatinder]

So thought of paying some attention. Europe & ANZ looks like $40M or so. Asia probably $20-25M range & $15-17M ish LATAM

 

$80M or so.

Edited May 25, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

This could end with sub $250M. LMAO.

[Issac Newton]

¥8672 Chinese PS for Previews - $1226

[KP1025]

I do hope Disney and other studios don't take the wrong message from this and only go with safe casting choices from now on.

[JustLurking]

8 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I do hope Disney and other studios don't take the wrong message from this and only go with safe casting choices from now on.

I mean...granted I am not sold on this going that low yet, but I'm not sure what other lesson there is to take. In a fantasy world racism isn't real, people don't pay much thought to the color of someone's skin and it's all nice and dandy. But we don't live in that world and black-led films really struggle internationally. I was disputed on this point a week ago but I'd say it's pretty clear now. The film wasn't any worse-reviewed or worse-marketed than the other remake efforts really. These films are usually beasts internationally..

[Liiviig 1998]

Sub 250m seems rush for me. Will see how the weekend goes . But even with 80M+ can see it getting to 300m+ with Japan contributing hopefully 60m+

Expect a solid enough performance in Europe too. 

Also think it can play well enough with families . 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, Liiviig 1998 said:

with Japan contributing hopefully 60m+

 

$30M-$40M max - can't see more than that unless it's not a Disney Film 

[GipJo]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

I do hope Disney and other studios don't take the wrong message from this and only go with safe casting choices from now on.

Safe choices or wrong choices? If it's an entirely original black princess story it wouldn't have faced so much backlash. Look at Brave and Encanto, they're not monstrous but still pull decent numbers. It's Disney fault that they can't write an actual original diverse story with diverse casts. If they really are diverse like they're trying to do, the lesbian queerbait of Frozen should have been fully realized and we could have a gay princess already. I don't think we should blame the viewers for Disney checking the boxes only.