MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING | 395.4M overseas | 567.5M worldwide

[The Dark Alfred]

The US and China disappointment overshadows the otherwise terrific overseas run.

[Brian Miller]

1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:

The US and China disappointment overshadows the otherwise terrific overseas run.

Korea disappointed too which I can't figure out since Barbie is flopping and Oppenheimer is yet to be released.

 

It's not like it recived mediocre reviews online, still the run has been disappointing.

 

[Borobudur]

17 minutes ago, Brian Miller said:

Korea disappointed too which I can't figure out since Barbie is flopping and Oppenheimer is yet to be released.

 

It's not like it received mediocre reviews online, still the run has been disappointing.

 

US numbers tend to exert influence to overseas gross. Overseas numbers would do even better if US perform better. 

[keysersoze123]

Its been tough year for this movie. Even in markets like Germany where 10% hold should make you thrilled, it has the worst hold among all holdovers and that is not just Barbenheimer. At least its going to end up with good OS gross(400m+) and most likely 600m+ WW. So its not pulling a Indy/Flash kind of disastrous run. 

[The Dark Alfred]

Everything is relative. It is outgrossing  ELEMENTAL, TRANSFORMERS, JOHN WICK 4, ANT-MAN 3, possibly LITTLE MERMAID, too. It's clear that a better release date would have resulted a different story. The main thing is quality. The film delivered in that respect, so DR2 is in good shape.

[Sophia Jane]

17 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Everything is relative. It is outgrossing  ELEMENTAL, TRANSFORMERS, JOHN WICK 4, ANT-MAN 3, possibly LITTLE MERMAID, too. It's clear that a better release date would have resulted a different story. The main thing is quality. The film delivered in that respect, so DR2 is in good shape.

DR2 performance is bad ,it won’t even cover its $290m budget

[The Dark Alfred]

Yes, but we know that DR2 will cost way less. To use an NFL analogy, the way I see it the game hasn't finished yet, it's only half time. DR might have thrown a couple interceptions (China and US) but DR2 can still come back winning with Cruise as QB and McQ calling plays.

Edited July 30, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Sophia Jane]

3 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Yes, but we know that DR2 will cost way less. To use an NFL analogy, the way I see it the game hasn't finished yet, it's only half time. DR might have thrown a couple interceptions (China and US) but DR2 can still come back winning with Cruise as QB and McQ calling plays.

The movie had really big failed in China,I was confident for the movie doing $200m or at least $150m at the beginning since the series is really popular for 20 years across generations,and the movie is not so bad,so this is really black swan event 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[The Dark Alfred]

Well it had a limited release there for some reason. Played in 17x times less theatres than TF or even FLASH. Not a great time for Hollywood in that market atm.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah Part 2 has had far less complications and some of it was filmed during the production of Part 1 so hopefully the budget isn't as inflated. Then again McQ did say Part 2 is of a higher scale to Part 1 so who knows.

 

Assuming it can hit the 2024 release date there's far less competition so it should have more room but unfortunately there's a clear ceiling for this franchise it seems.

[Sophia Jane]

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part I 976m

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part 2 1341m(+37.3%)

Avengers Infinity War 2040m

Avengers Endgame 2780m(+36%)

MI7: 580m projected

Hope MI8 do $800m(+38%)

[WorkingonaName]

3 hours ago, Sophia Jane said:

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part I 976m

Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part 2 1341m(+37.3%)

Avengers Infinity War 2040m

Avengers Endgame 2780m(+36%)

MI7: 580m projected

Hope MI8 do $800m(+38%)

If they put it out in December it has a shot. 

[Brian Miller]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its been tough year for this movie. Even in markets like Germany where 10% hold should make you thrilled, it has the worst hold among all holdovers and that is not just Barbenheimer. At least its going to end up with good OS gross(400m+) and most likely 600m+ WW. So its not pulling a Indy/Flash kind of disastrous run. 

Doesn't look like $600M WW is in the play 

[RamblinRed]

4 hours ago, Brian Miller said:

Doesn't look like $600M WW is in the play 

Seems like $550M is a more likely target at this point. Probably another $30M or so DOM, $75-85M International. Another $100-110 total.

 

The underperformance in DOM and Asia is what is making the huge difference.

Since 2011 the top 6 markets for MI movies have been DOM, China, South Korea, Japan, UK, and France. They consistently account for close to 70% of its total take. So far in this run those 6 markets are accounting for 61%. Some other markets have grown to help its take, but they hardly offset the underperformance in its largest markets. 

 

This movie is going to be on par for UK - where it is amazingly consistent. An MI movie in UK is basically going to be $30M +-2.  France will be close to its historical norms. But the other markets, ouch.

The DOM and Asian markets are a mess for this movie and Barbieheimer really only affects the DOM market. 

 

DOM probably has about another $30M in the tank. Get it to around $170 million. It will finish behind both Indy 5 and Sound of Freedom in the DOM market. Barbieheimer hurt it alot, but so did Sound of Freedom. $170 would be about $40M below the avg for the previous 3 movies and $50M below Fallout.

 

China was poor, but that should not be a surprise. China is no longer a big market for US movies an probably will not be for some time, getting to $100M in the market would be a huge win for any Hollywood movie. It's take in China is down $135M from Fallout and $94M from the 3 previous MI movie avg.

 

South Korea and Japan have had pretty similar numbers for MI movies and are 3rd and 4th overall behind DOM and China. 

We will have to see what happens in Japan where it is really just getting started, but it is getting close to the end of its run in SK where it is likely to end up between $30-35M overall. Probably end up about $15M below the avg and $17M below fallout. Barbieheimer is not a factor here as Barbie is not doing well in SK and Oppenheimer isn't even released yet.

 

So where does that put the prospects for DR2. Let's say it performs closer to the top Hollywood movies in China and grosses closer to $100M. That would be $50M more than DR1. DOM could probably end up closer to its avg of $210M which would be $40M additional. Maybe SK recovers to its normal and adds another $15M. So that would be $105M more than DR1, so maybe $660-670. 

That looks like a good benchmark to see if DR2 can hit. Somewhere close to GP and RN WW. 

 

[KP1025]

17 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Seems like $550M is a more likely target at this point. Probably another $30M or so DOM, $75-85M International. Another $100-110 total.

 

 

So potentially lower than TLM WW but with a much lower domestic gross and a higher budget. Really did not see this coming at all.

[kayumanggi]

On 7/26/2023 at 3:47 PM, kayumanggi said:

 

252.1M overseas | 373.1M worldwide

 

309.3M overseas | 451.5M worldwide

[kayumanggi]

 

[The Dark Alfred]

At least ANT MAN overtaken.

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]