THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[TheFlatLannister]

The last time a film kept on beating projections OW was TGM and that went on to have monster legs 

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

It won’t be 4-quad the way Mario is. Unless the marketing shifts, I can’t see many people over 35 or so being really hyped to watch it. Mario has kids begging their parents to bring them, which Barbie won’t have. A kid who wants to see Mario, that’s 3-4 tickets sold right there. A 15-25 year old who wants to see Barbie, that’s 1 ticket.

 

Not the most sound logic, but I don’t think the potential is quite there yet to break into Uber-blockbuster territory. LEGO movie seems like a fair bar.

 

 

EDIT: plus the Barbie brand isn’t as relevant today as Mario is (at least from a marketing and branding perspective).

I think you can bump up that range from 25 to just over 40 actually. Millennials will be all in... It's being made by a Millennial and a Gen Xer. I think based on the trailer Gerwig/Baumbach are targeting 15 to 45 age range very much. To be honest, the cast is kinda old too for a Barbie movie unless you're targeting the older a bit. Gosling is comfortably into his 40s now and Robbie comfortably into her 30s... Issa Rae is pushing 40 too. Hey, Issa is my age... I'm not complaining, but you think who can play Barbies and Kens I'm not sure many think thirty somethings and middle aged dudes. So very much think the target audience pushes into the 40s in age. It's a smart move to draw in a little older crowd than just 15 to 25...

[Flamengo81]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Agreed kids won’t be huge for it, but I just don’t think that’s a necessity for something like 400+ DOM. 

I can see 400M+ WW.

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Spiderverse could also muck up my Barbie wins summer predictions. I really don’t know what to do with that movie bc half of me thinks we have a Batman Begins to TDK situation where the first has just gained too much prestige over the years for the sequel to not explode, and the other half of me thinks it’s still more of a “niche” cult following situation. 

I'm betting Across the Spiderverse explodes. The Miles Morales game was widely successful and the first movie introduced the sub IP to the general mass. 

 

Would not be shocked with an $100M OW and a $600M+ WW finish 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

I can see 400M+ WW.

Don’t have much of a pulse on what it can do OS. I’d imagine it pulls a TGM and basically 50/50s the DOM share. 

[AdrianL]

I think Barbie is gonna predominantly kill it when it comes to women. Young adult women are gonna see it in droves and its a demographic that hardly ever is the target audience.

[DisposedData]

45 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The thing with Barbie is isnt it something more for girls and women?. I mean i dont have kids and dont know how kids think these days, but in my day a male kid wouldnt be seen dead going to see Barbie lol.

It's 1980 anymore 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm betting Across the Spiderverse explodes. The Miles Morales game was widely successful and the first movie introduced the sub IP to the general mass. 

 

Would not be shocked with an $100M OW and a $600M+ WW finish 

Ah well I was thinking far bigger than that if it explodes. It’s animated, so if it explodes with adults it will probably be that way for kids too. But I’m not willing to make predictions on that movie, feels too volatile. 

[TheFlatLannister]

I'm not seeing barbie breakout tbh

 

It could do some business but nothing near Mario

 

Probably $200M DOM $250M OS 

 

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think you can bump up that range from 25 to just over 40 actually. Millennials will be all in... It's being made by a Millennial and a Gen Xer. I think based on the trailer Gerwig/Baumbach are targeting 15 to 45 age range very much. To be honest, the cast is kinda old too for a Barbie movie unless you're targeting the older a bit. Gosling is comfortably into his 40s now and Robbie comfortably into her 30s... Issa Rae is pushing 40 too. Hey, Issa is my age... I'm not complaining, but you think who can play Barbies and Kens I'm not sure many think thirty somethings and middle aged dudes. So very much think the target audience pushes into the 40s in age. It's a smart move to draw in a little older crowd than just 15 to 25...

Totally, it's going to mostly play to the 15-40 crowd (I said hardly anyone above 35, but can bump that to 40 sure). Was just giving an example of how "older kids wanting to see a movie" doesn't pull out the whole family the way a 7-year-old does. 

 

I really think this is going to be more of a LEGO Movie box office wise than a Mario. I'm also expecting the quality to be there, so legs could be okay. But yea, hesitant to predict a massive breakout until I see this thing really start to pull beyond the memes.

 

As far as summer breakouts go TGM-style, I'm thinking its either Flash or Indy. 

[Brainbug]

No one should forget that Margot Robbie is playing Barbie. It would actually stun me to see more women than men on OW for it.

 

And while yes, that is intended as a joke, its only 80% a joke. Count me in as one guy who will see it not only because a female friend of mine wants to see it, but because Margot Robbie is playing Barbie.

[keysersoze123]

Grrrrr why does this weekend thread have to turn into a barbie thread. That movie has enough threads/clubs to discuss. Its nothing to do with Mario as well. 

 

Anyway let me be cautious. Mario at this point is driven a lot by walkups. This 59m estimate was provided really early. While its possible to go higher, it can go lower as well. I would not call this a conservative projection. hopefully @charlie Jatinder or he who must not be named will provide an estimate in the evening hours which would be closer to actual. I wonder if @RthMav could come in for this. It has been ages since he was last seen. 

[TwoMisfits]

Barbie will do well, BUT...

 

Competition going into, during, and out of Barbie weekend is fierce.  To go big, you need big starting presale sets, clear outs for the opening weekend with all PLF, and some open space to run.

 

The Marvels moving helps...but Oppenheimer staying put and sharing opening weekend is a big NON-help.  Theaters just can't set enough for either movie, and barring a miracle horrid OW, MI 7 may also still get some PLF love that weekend.  And then movies keep opening through mid-August.  And some of them will draw to the same crowds...

 

I think $200M DOM would be a big win.  I hope it goes higher - I can see it go lower (especially if it's poorly reviewed).  But I think that a bigger number will take family buy in for the big weekdays that Minions 2 got.  It wasn't just the teens and college students pushing that - it was families, swim teams, and summer camps, too.

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

Yeah that's where "not a record" came from.

And  'not an event'

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Grrrrr why does this weekend thread have to turn into a barbie thread. That movie has enough threads/clubs to discuss. Its nothing to do with Mario as well. 

 

Anyway let me be cautious. Mario at this point is driven a lot by walkups. This 59m estimate was provided really early. While its possible to go higher, it can go lower as well. I would not call this a conservative projection. hopefully @charlie Jatinder or he who must not be named will provide an estimate in the evening hours which would be closer to actual. I wonder if @RthMav could come in for this. It has been ages since he was last seen. 

It's weekend thread for a breakout... Let's get it to 100+ pages. There is and will be plenty of Mario talk... Don't worry!

[Maggie]

Barbie will do well enough, no problem, but what about Oppenheimer? That one only has the Nolan name, Oppenheimer is not really a big name, although the event he created was indeed well known.

[thedude11]

37 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm not seeing barbie breakout tbh

 

It could do some business but nothing near Mario

 

Probably $200M DOM $250M OS 

 

no one said it’s doing mario numbers. and what don’t people understand about having a movie for 18-45 year old women? they will bring their boyfriends and husbands. this is so obviously a male dominated site lmao

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Barbie will do well enough, no problem, but what about Oppenheimer? That one only has the Nolan name, Oppenheimer is not really a big name, although the event he created was indeed well known.

I expect that to do pretty well. Nolan doesn't disappoint. It's great counter programming for a summer release. It's hard to imagine it won't get at least good reviews probably better than good. I think many are actually underestimating it a bit.

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Grrrrr why does this weekend thread have to turn into a barbie thread. That movie has enough threads/clubs to discuss. Its nothing to do with Mario as well. 

 

Anyway let me be cautious. Mario at this point is driven a lot by walkups. This 59m estimate was provided really early. While its possible to go higher, it can go lower as well. I would not call this a conservative projection. hopefully @charlie Jatinder or he who must not be named will provide an estimate in the evening hours which would be closer to actual. I wonder if @RthMav could come in for this. It has been ages since he was last seen. 

We need shirtless men sacrifices for RTH to come:

[keysersoze123]

On a serious note I am not seeing 59m friday for now. That seems too high.  Let us see where it lands later this evening.