Weekdays Thread | April 10 - 13 | Thursday Numbers | 9.87M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.04M JOHN WICK IV | 1.02M AIR | 0.96M D&D

[screambaby]

Jmo but I seriously think u guys  are seriously overestimating a 3 hour movie about scientists making a bomb.

 

Even with the director and cast...

 

Maybe a big opening but then what?

Edited April 12, 2023 by screambaby

[MrPink]

9 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Does Oppenheimer get all the PLF´s or does Barbie get some aswell?

 

Barbie is getting a Dolby Cinema release. I would guess it might split some of those with Oppenheimer while Oppenheimer gets all IMAX.

 

As for Interstellar, I think it was a slight underperformer domestically but did really well OS. WB being the OS distributor though meant they were probably really happy with the performance. It's now over 500m OS and trends pretty closely with Inception.

[MrPink]

5 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Jmo but I seriously think u guys  are seriously overestimating a 3 hour movie about scientists making a bomb.

 

Even with the director and cast...

 

Maybe a big opening but themnwhat?

 

I think you're getting it wrong, drama fare like this is usually not going to have a major rush. Nolan's films usually leg it out, almost all have 3x or more with the exception of the Dark Knight Rises. So if it's going to underperform, then it's gonna come down to being a disappointment quality wise or opening low in the first place. But with the latter scenario, I just think the brand name and inflated ticket prices is probably gonna be enough to carry it to a solid opening as long as it's good. 

 

Stuff like a Man Called Otto and Air make me more confident that despite dry subject matters, Oppenheimer can do fairly well. And sure it's long but audiences won't care so much if the movie's good, really. Hasn't stopped Nolan's other films from being long and still succeeding, plus the exact runtime is not locked down yet, so we're not entirely sure how close to 3hr it actually is.

Edited April 12, 2023 by MrPink

[screambaby]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I think you're getting it wrong, drama fare like this is usually not going to have a major rush. Nolan's films usually leg it out, almost all have 3x or more with the exception of the Dark Knight Rises. So if it's going to underperform, then it's gonna come down to being a disappointment quality wise or opening low in the first place. But with the latter scenario, I just think the brand name and inflated ticket prices is probably gonna be enough to carry it to a solid opening as long as it's good. 

 

Stuff like a Man Called Otto and Air make me more confident that despite dry subject matters, Oppenheimer can do fairly well.

I.mean I'm not insulting the subject matter. It's probably  gonna be an Oscar winner for all I know...buts  ts stil a 100 million dollar budget for a 3 hour drama

Edited April 12, 2023 by screambaby

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Jmo but I seriously think u guys  are seriously overestimating a 3 hour movie about scientists making a bomb.

 

Even with the director and cast...

 

Maybe a big opening but then what?

If it has a big opening then it will definitely do well. I can't imagine legs not being there for it especially if it's well received like pretty much every other Nolan movie. Legs shouldn't be a problem. It's the only big budget movie of this type being released all summer I think, no?

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, screambaby said:

I.mean I'm not insulting the subject matter. It's probably  gonna be an Oscar winner for all I know...buts  ts stil a 100 million dollar budget for a 3 hour drama

I imagine the testing of the bomb, etc. will extremely cinematic. Expecting insane sound mixing/design as usual from Nolan too. This is coming from someone that admires his talent more than enjoys his movies too. Even Tenet did 300M+ WW when the pandemic was roaring. There's not reason to think this one can't and won't do well. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Expected somewhat hefty drop from Monday. What's the expectation now of how far it'll dip from Wednesday's number from Tuesday's 15M~?

[screambaby]

Mario is crumbling

 Maybe it can get to 2x?

 

Edited April 12, 2023 by screambaby

[Mojoguy]

Weds 12

Thurs 11

 

Weekend 24-36-24

 

Maybe.

 

Mario will be a big weekend movie for the rest of April. Zero family competition for the rest of the month until GOTG3.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Mojoguy

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Weds 12

Thurs 11

 

Weekend 24-36-24

 

Maybe.

 

Mario will be a big weekend movie for the rest of April. Zero family competition for the rest of the month.

Staying at 8 figures the rest of the week should be the goal, IMO. $10M Thursday would basically lock up a $75M second weekend. $11M puts $85M in play.

[grey ghost]

So if Mario is at 330m by Sunday what's its range for its final domestic gross?

[kayumanggi]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So if Mario is at 330m by Sunday what's its range for its final domestic gross?

 

Maybe 550M - 600M?

[DisposedData]

53 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Jmo but I seriously think u guys  are seriously overestimating a 3 hour movie about scientists making a bomb.

 

Even with the director and cast...

 

Maybe a big opening but then what?

Agreed. Today's climate doesn't want to see a film like this imo.

[DisposedData]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So if Mario is at 330m by Sunday what's its range for its final domestic gross?

Well Incredibles was around 370m by day 12. So Mario is looking to be in good shape for 550m

[cooldude97]

yeah incredible 2 domestic record looks to be safe but baring any disastrous drops Mario should end up in the top 3 highest grossing animated films domestically 

[wildphantom]

Speaking of Elemental’s prospects….

 

The fact AM3 isn’t going on D+ next week, and instead digital retail and physical way before - just like A:TWOW - would suggest they’re done with free on D+ in 6-7 weeks. 
 

This is great news for theatrical and Disney already changing their ways and people noticing. 

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Speaking of Elemental’s prospects….

 

The fact AM3 isn’t going on D+ next week, and instead digital retail and physical way before - just like A:TWOW - would suggest they’re done with free on D+ in 6-7 weeks. 
 

This is great news for theatrical and Disney already changing their ways and people noticing. 

Just need to wait and see proof of people actually taking notice of it. GOTG3 might benefit from it, but we’ll have to wait and see. 

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Just need to wait and see proof of people actually taking notice of it. GOTG3 might benefit from it, but we’ll have to wait and see. 

yep. The penny will drop for a ton of people when AM3 doesn’t show up next week, and all they’ll see are promos to buy it on digital.  Some speculated A2’s move was a one off. I suspected it was the start of a shift back to normal windows and it would seem so. 
 

The Mouse has had to sit by and watch rival studios rake in PVOD money whilst they’re handing their films out with a pretty bow. It’s over now, and not a moment too soon. 

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

yep. The penny will drop for a ton of people when AM3 doesn’t show up next week, and all they’ll see are promos to buy it on digital.  Some speculated A2’s move was a one off. I suspected it was the start of a shift back to normal windows and it would seem so. 
 

The Mouse has had to sit by and watch rival studios rake in PVOD money whilst they’re handing their films out with a pretty bow. It’s over now, and not a moment too soon. 

 

I hope so too. The Disney+ window was absolutely crippling their animated films in particular. As a subscriber, I wouldn't even be opposed to 6 months or more before a theatrical release is available for free on Disney+. Gives some time for the digital and physical copies to sell.