Weekdays Thread | April 10 - 13 | Thursday Numbers | 9.87M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.04M JOHN WICK IV | 1.02M AIR | 0.96M D&D

[MattW]

9.6 is solid, low 70s I think is a good bet for this weekend. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by MattW
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[BadOlCatSylvester]

Looks like this will indeed be fairly frontloaded since it's such a fan-driven property like Sonic. It'll pass $500M but I don't really see it making much past that as of now.

[Starrow5722]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Looks like this will indeed be fairly frontloaded since it's such a fan-driven property like Sonic. It'll pass $500M but I don't really see it making much past that as of now.

No, it's still on track for 550m-600m

[thajdikt]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Looks like this will indeed be fairly frontloaded since it's such a fan-driven property like Sonic. It'll pass $500M but I don't really see it making much past that as of now.

You also disregarded 1B after the reviews

[stripe]

4 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Looks like this will indeed be fairly frontloaded since it's such a fan-driven property like Sonic. It'll pass $500M but I don't really see it making much past that as of now.

 

SMB will be around 340M after 2nd weekend. It should avoid 50% drop despite opening in an inflated Easter holiday weekend. No new competition and strong rewatchability will help with legs from now on. 

 

Compare this 340M with other movies' gross after 2nd weekend. It's 20M higher than BatB and only 10M less than Incredibles 2.

 

It should reach 550M.

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by stripe

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

SMB will be around 340M after 2nd weekend. It should avoid 50% drop despite opening in an inflated Easter holiday weekend. No new competition and strong rewatchability will help with legs from now on. 

 

Compare this 340M with other movies' gross after 2nd weekend. It's 20M higher than BatB and only 10M less than Incredibles 2.

 

It should reach 550M.

 

It probably needs more than that for 550 tbh. BatB has easter and spring break after its 2nd weekend, Incredibles 2 has summer weekdays, those will eat into that gap in regards to legs since Mario doesn't have anything left.

Edited April 14, 2023 by JustLurking

[JustLurking]

Also 340 needs a 90M second weekend, with 9.6 thu (if that comes close anyway, assuming it will since keyser's numbers have been pretty spot on) that seems a bit tough to me, 80M -> 330 seems safer which sort of furthers the point that 550 seems a bit tough from here to me

Edited April 14, 2023 by JustLurking

[stripe]

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

It probably needs more than that for 550 tbh. BatB has easter and spring break after its 2nd weekend, Incredibles 2 has summer weekdays, those will eat into that gap in regards to legs since Mario doesn't have anything left.

 

You have to look also to competition. BatB faced huge competition in 3rd and 5th weekend (Boss Baby, Fast8) and SMB wont. The gap with that movie should slowly increase.

Incredibles 2 faced Jurassic World 2, Ant Man 2 and Hotel Transilvania 3.

 

Puss in Boots delivered huge legs due to lack of competition. SMB could do something similar, but in a smaller scale.

 

[Borobudur]

Amazon has some super early actual BO.

-

(2)

AIR

Amazon Studios

$982,597

-16%

-60%

3,507

$280

$25,525,805

9

[stripe]

8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Also 340 needs a 90M second weekend, with 9.6 thu (if that comes close anyway, assuming it will since keyser's numbers have been pretty spot on) that seems a bit tough to me, 80M -> 330 seems safer which sort of furthers the point that 550 seems a bit tough from here to me

 

No, it just needs 80M second weekend to reach 340M. After 9.6M Thursday SMB will be at 260M

[Nate]

4 hours ago, stripe said:

 

SMB will be around 340M after 2nd weekend. It should avoid 50% drop despite opening in an inflated Easter holiday weekend. No new competition and strong rewatchability will help with legs from now on. 

 

Compare this 340M with other movies' gross after 2nd weekend. It's 20M higher than BatB and only 10M less than Incredibles 2.

 

It should reach 550M.

 

Incredibles 2 is going to really expand its lead with summer weekdays, so you can expect that 10m lead to only increase with each M-T. That’s on top of very solid weekends, so I have a hard time seeing Mario do anything but continue to lose ground on it. 
 

BATB will be a good one to watch, I think we’re still looking at a final total close to it, assuming BATB claws back 10-20m over this weekend.
 

We’ll know a lot more after this weekend- IMO Mario needs ~80 to keep 550 dream alive.

[superduperm]

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Also 340 needs a 90M second weekend, with 9.6 thu (if that comes close anyway, assuming it will since keyser's numbers have been pretty spot on) that seems a bit tough to me, 80M -> 330 seems safer which sort of furthers the point that 550 seems a bit tough from here to me

It only needs 80M for 340. 250 isn’t counting Thursday yet.

[Shawn Robbins]

900k for Renfield

[JustLurking]

51 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

You have to look also to competition. BatB faced huge competition in 3rd and 5th weekend (Boss Baby, Fast8) and SMB wont. The gap with that movie should slowly increase.

Incredibles 2 faced Jurassic World 2, Ant Man 2 and Hotel Transilvania 3.

 

Puss in Boots delivered huge legs due to lack of competition. SMB could do something similar, but in a smaller scale.

 

Ehhh, lack of competition doesn't necessarily guarantee big legs. It could develop them, sure, but that's far from a guarantee. And as meh as tracking for it is looking, if we're counting Fast8 and AM2 surely GOTG3 is also competition...

42 minutes ago, superduperm said:

It only needs 80M for 340. 250 isn’t counting Thursday yet.

Woops, big brainfart on my side here.

[Borobudur]

Super Mario Bros grossed $9.4M yesterday at 4,343 locations, -13% from Wednesday’s $10.7M.

[Shawn Robbins]

31 minutes ago, Shawn said:

900k for Renfield

850 Pope

680 Suzume

[CJohn]

Pope's Exorcist is gonna be this weekend's biggest opener.

[CJohn]

34 minutes ago, Shawn said:

900k for Renfield

This includes Wednesday EA shows?

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

850 Pope

680 Suzume

 

I was expecting a 25 million domestic final

just checked your name and it apparently only made 5 million domestically, dont know why, but I thought it had made around 30

 

[Lurrrrk]

Why is deadline saying this weekend won't even clear 60m? Are they lowballing again?

 

https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office-super-mario-bros-renfield-popes-exorcist-1235325394/