April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[Starphanluke]

Whoa... international weekend ended up over $100m?? Goddamn

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

700M today then!

[MovieMan89]

Just gonna take another brief bow and remind that I called 7th biggest second weekend before any Friday estimates came in. Mario bends to my will muahahaha

[kayumanggi]

 

[screambaby]

22 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'm not sure we could've expected much more from Creed III and Wick Chapter 4. Both as well or better than expected and are the high water mark DOM wise for each series. Dungeons & Dragons could've done more but going into it's release many were expecting what Shazam did or worse and it overachieved. The big disappointment has to be Shazam and, of course, Ant-Man not holding well at all into March. I honestly don't think we could've asked more from Scream 6 either... Highest admissions since Scream and Scream 2.

Scream 6 dealing with no neve and idiots leaking the killers 3 weeks ahead of time increased its take over 5 which barely came out   a year r ago. Fantastic resutls.

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by screambaby

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

I’m iffy on 700 yet because of May/June but I’m sold on $600m+.

It’s not a lock and a crowded summer could stop it, but idk I can feel 700 for it in my bones at this point 

[JohnnyGossamer]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

This movie really is going to be a decent comp to Spidey 02. Obviously not admissions wise, but adjusted it won’t even land that far away. We know how that changed the industry regarding CBMs. Would be silly to think Mario isn’t going to have that effect for VGMs. 

I'd say there is a difference though... Difference being that Superman 1978 and Batman 1989 had enormous admissions even before Spider-man 2002 exploded. So three different properties all had huge admissions for superhero movies. The similarity to Spider-man being Spider-man 2002 was the first proper Spider-man movie so it had novelty and, of course, was a well received crowd pleaser. I should also mention X-Men doing 158M DOM in 2000. While not as big as the others, still pretty impressive admissions for the time. I imagine even X-Men 2000 has higher admissions DOM than video game movie not named Super Mario 2023 to date. So... There was always a bit more precedent that superhero movies could do well or extremely well at the box office starting back in 1978 with Donner's Superman.

 

Prior to Spider-man blowing up in 2002 there were probably (honestly by a lot) fewer superhero movies released than there have been video game movies prior to Super Mario 2023. That's the one caveat. Maybe even a big caveat. Oh, while we had seen other superhero movies gross huge dollars prior to Spider-man 2002, we have not seen any video of the dozens of video game movies prior to Super Mario 2023 do the same.

 

So, the question is, it is a video game thing? Or, is it more of a Super Mario thing?

Edited April 17, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[spizzer]

@charlie Jatinder What kind of gross does this need to be highest attended US film since Endgame?  Strength of matinee shows and children tickets has to mean that ATP is materially lower than recent mega blockbusters (WOW 3D/PLF, TGM PLF, NWH probably more balanced and harder to reach).

[screambaby]

7 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Whoa... international weekend ended up over $100m?? Goddamn

Guess that mario under 900  ww club isn't  looking too good?

[titanic2187]

Assuming Mario coming at $600m+, this is the 3rd non-superhero mega hit in just one year after TGM and A2. We may need more data but the sign of superhero genre fatigue is getting real and real, at least among casual moviegoers. 

[filmnerdjamie]

Shit.

 

We talking $60M+ next weekend for the Bros. Mario?

 

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, spizzer said:

@charlie Jatinder What kind of gross does this need to be highest attended US film since Endgame?  Strength of matinee shows and children tickets has to mean that ATP is materially lower than recent mega blockbusters (WOW 3D/PLF, TGM PLF, NWH probably more balanced and harder to reach).

Even with a lower price skew, it would still need to break $700 million to be on par with NWH attendance.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd say there is a different though... Difference being that Superman 1978 and Batman 1989 had enormous admissions even before Spider-man 2002 exploded. So three different properties all had huge admissions for superhero movies. The similarity to Spider-man being Spider-man 2002 was the first proper Spider-man movie so it had novelty and, of course, was a well received crowd pleaser.

 

Prior to Spider-man blowing up in 2002 there were probably (honestly by a lot) fewer superhero movies released than there have been video game movies prior to Super Mario 2023. That's the one caveat. Maybe even a big caveat. Oh, while we had seen other superhero movies gross huge dollars prior to Spider-man 2002, we have not seen any video of the dozens of video game movies prior to Super Mario 2023 do the same.

 

So, the question is, it is a video game thing? Or, is it more of a Super Mario thing?

I think there are a lot of decent parallels. The biggest difference is you had supes and Batman before spidey like you said, and there is no pre Mario game equivalent. But I absolutely see this movie (and the last of us) massive success as the harbingers of a video game craze in Hollywood.

 

ESPECIALLY with superhero fatigue being real, the execs are probably foaming at the mouth right now at VGM prospects since I’m sure the realization of the golden goose that has been CBMs for so long not laying eggs anymore has been sending them into a full blown panic. It’s a perfect storm for VG adaptions exploding. Hopefully they don’t mostly suck though and kill it. 

[superduperm]

7 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Shit.

 

We talking $60M+ next weekend for the Bros. Mario?

 

I’m going to go with $55M. But I predicted $75M for the second weekend as recently as Friday afternoon so what do I know?

[wildphantom]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

93

W U T

 

Yeah, 700 is happening people. RIP to all the naysayers who have been trying their damndest to struggle against this phenomenon, I hope your argument’s deaths came without much suffering. 

I got laughed at a couple of weeks ago for saying Mario is Star Wars levels of love from generations.  Yet here we are. 

 

The mistake people make with Mario, and anything Nintendo for that matter, is that adults have not only grown up with it since the early 80’s but still play it. Who believes the no doubt monster sales of the new Zelda next month are kids? Nintendo done right on the big screen was always an untapped juggernaut if they got it right. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by wildphantom

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think there are a lot of decent parallels. The biggest difference is you had supes and Batman before spidey like you said, and there is no pre Mario game equivalent. But I absolutely see this movie (and the last of us) massive success as the harbingers of a video game craze in Hollywood.

 

ESPECIALLY with superhero fatigue being real, the execs are probably foaming at the mouth right now at VGM prospects since I’m sure the realization of the golden goose that has been CBMs for so long not laying eggs anymore has been sending them into a full blown panic. It’s a perfect storm for VG adaptions exploding. Hopefully they don’t mostly suck though and kill it. 

Oh, I agree... I guess I'm just curious outside of Super Mario and whichever spinoffs Illumination does for Super Mario, which will actually gross more than Guardians Vol. 3, The Flash, the sequel to The Batman, the sequel to Joker, the next Avengers, Superman Legacy, the next Black Panther, etc. 

 

Superhero is fatigue is absolutely real and Super Mario is absolutely exploding but are studios certain that sinking big chunks of money into budgeted riskier video game properties than Super Mario will actually better returns than the diminished returns of the recent superhero movies? We literally just had an Uncharted and a Sonic movie last year that grossed less than the most recent... Shang Chi, Thor, Doctor Strange, Spider-man, Black Panther, Venom, Ant-Man, Batman, etc. movies. 

 

Last of Us I don't include because we have no idea how that would've done as a 2.5+ hour piece of cinema in theaters. It's certainly done great as a series on HBO though.

[screambaby]

Is it comic book movie fatigue or mediocre comic book movie fatigue combined with lack luster marketing?

 

If we learned Avengers 17 or whatever it would  be is coming out next may do we think it would flop?

Edited April 17, 2023 by screambaby

[thajdikt]

4 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Is it comic book movie fatigue or mediocre comic book movie fatigue combined with lack luster marketing?

 

If we learned Avengers 17 or whatever it woild be is coming out next may do we think it woild flop?

Avengers movies will probably always do well like a Spider-Man and Batman, but the general genre is in a meh patch right now. I do think personally that the quality is the biggest issue but we have to see how the remaining cbm movies does this year. I´m particular interested to see how Vol 3, Flash and Across The Spide-Verse does. If they are well received and still struggles then its´hard to argue against it. Vol 3 is not looking good at the moment so we will see.

Edited April 17, 2023 by thajdikt

[spizzer]

17 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

Even with a lower price skew, it would still need to break $700 million to be on par with NWH attendance.

 

Yup and I expect it to be right around that in the end, which is why I'm curious.

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, spizzer said:

@charlie Jatinder What kind of gross does this need to be highest attended US film since Endgame?  Strength of matinee shows and children tickets has to mean that ATP is materially lower than recent mega blockbusters (WOW 3D/PLF, TGM PLF, NWH probably more balanced and harder to reach).

hmm. probably like 725m+