WGA/SAGAFTRA Strike Discussion Thread | SAG Ratifies Contract

[grim22]

22 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2023-07-10/la-et-ct-sag-aftra-strike-analysis
 

 

And then that guy became President and decided unions can take a hike and destroyed the US middle class thanks to policies which are still hurting people to this day.

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, grim22 said:

And then that guy became President and decided unions can take a hike and destroyed the US middle class thanks to policies which are still hurting people to this day.

Yep. Reagan is a fucking a-hole. It’s known.

[Cap]

40 minutes ago, grim22 said:

And then that guy became President and decided unions can take a hike and destroyed the US middle class thanks to policies which are still hurting people to this day.

I was literally hitting the reply on @ZattMurdock with this. 

[Claudio]

WAG strike : no scripts

SAG AFRA strike: no actors and live promotions

 

See you watching NatGeo documentaries at the cinema next year guysss.

 

[Unfitclock]

Is there a possibility the sag strike doesn’t happen this Wednesday because that would be really bad for the industry 

[filmlover]

The backlash towards Drescher putting all this aside as we quickly approach the deadline to get cozy with celebrities at lavish events in Italy is just too funny to me. It's totally something her The Nanny character would do. 

 

If a SAG strike does ultimately actually happen, I imagine that there will be a rather quick resolution to avoid an industry wide shutdown on par with the early days of COVID for too long (if at all). Have a feeling most of the actors we'd be seeing outside the studio striking will be of the lower profile variety vs. the types who are very much familiar with awards show red carpets.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

9 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Is there a possibility the sag strike doesn’t happen this Wednesday because that would be really bad for the industry 

If they still Haven’t gotten one with the extension, they probably aren’t by Wednesday.

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Is there a possibility the sag strike doesn’t happen this Wednesday because that would be really bad for the industry 

At this point i think it´s unlikely, strike should happen 

 

That doesn´t mean it will be a long one and that´s impossible to predict. But while the industry can keep working without writers (not necessarily doing a good work but still), they will nearly shut down completely without actors so the pressure to solve this quickly will be way bigger especially because it will impact even the movies dropping now, i really doubt there´ll be a tons of delays at least in the beginning since it can be solved quite quickly once it starts

 

But honestly, a month of strike is enough to create a huge problem especially for projects filming now , Hollywood is fucked no matter what 

Edited July 11, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Porthos]

In case people are curious about overseas productions they would absolutely be shut down if SAG-AFTRA members were part of the cast (as they should, BTW).

 

"Global Rule One" as it is known:

 

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However, if the actors walk, there would be more casualties. A large number of U.S. series are shooting abroad, particularly in the UK and Europe, and those also would shut down, largely having been out of the glare of picket signs up to now.

 

These include House of the Dragon, Andor and Industry, and a strike could affect new titles such as HBO’s Kate Winslet drama The Palace and Peacock’s Day of the Jackal remake. Sharon Horgan’s Bad Sisters was expected to start shooting shortly, while British series with U.S. involvement such as the now-Disney+ co-production Doctor Who all likely would be hit. Apple TV+’s Gary Oldman-starring Slow Horses is understood to have completed filming SAG-member Oldman’s scenes prior to the strike potentially being called.

 

The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power, which recently moved to the UK, is thought to have just finished shooting, so fans of Middle-earth can breathe slightly easier.

 

As SAG-AFTRA’s Global Rule One, which is more restrictive than WGA rules, says, “No member shall render any services or make an agreement to perform services for any employer who has not executed a basic minimum agreement with the union, which is in full force and effect, in any jurisdiction in which there is a SAG-AFTRA national collective bargaining agreement in place.”

 

That section from and article from Deadline was about TV but it also applies to film and other productions.

 

All press junkets and Comic Con and other things get axed as well:

 

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With less than 48 hours to go until the negotiation deadline, SAG-AFTRA has held a meeting with Hollywood publicists to discuss how a potential strike, which may be called on Wednesday night, will affect them and their clients who are members of the actors guild.

 

Two individuals with knowledge of the talks tell TheWrap that some key elements of SAG-AFTRA’s forthcoming strike rules were discussed. Along with stepping away from all film and television productions worldwide, actors will not be permitted to take part in promotional work of any kind, including press junkets, film premieres, and fan events like San Diego Comic-Con.

 

Actors are permitted to attend the pop culture convention as long as they don’t take part in any panels that promote a specific film or television show or discuss any current or future work. While attendance is allowed, individuals with knowledge of the publicist meeting tell TheWrap that SAG-AFTRA would prefer that its members completely skip the event later this month.

 

Sources also say that SAG-AFTRA has informed publicists that any scheduled press or acting work after a strike is ordered must be cancelled. SAG-AFTRA members are also not permitted to promote any work on social media, as that is considered publicity.

 

Hollywood studios have already held press junkets ahead of the strike deadline for several films coming out in July and August, such as Warner Bros.’ “Barbie” and Sony Pictures’ “Gran Turismo.” SAG-AFTRA is asking publicists to include a disclaimer on any pre-deadline junkets that they were recorded beforehand, and the union will be reaching out to those who are possibly breaching these rules.

 

Exceptions may be given to independent productions that agree to terms with SAG-AFTRA on an interim basis, but these productions must be truly independent, meaning that they do not have a studio or streamer that is a member of the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) attached as producers or distributors.

Not saying we're entering Nuclear War stage of Hollywood Labor Talks has there have been actor strikes before.  Will say that since it hasn't happened (for a real length of time — not counting strikes against commercial productions) in over 40 years, lots of folks here really aren't prepared for the disruption to the entertainment ecosystem it will cause to things even out of immediate production.

 

[ZattMurdock]

https://deadline.com/2023/07/actors-strike-ai-kim-kardashian-fran-drescher-contract-deadline-1235432142/
 

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EXCLUSIVE: The computers are taking over.

As talks between the actors union and the studios come to down to the final days before the extension of SAG-AFTRA's current contract expires, artificial intelligence has become a significant obstacle to any deal.

 

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"There seems to be no real negotiations here," a SAG-AFTRA member close to talks tells Deadline on AI talks with the AMPTP. "Actors see Black Mirror's 'Joan Is Awful' as a documentary of the future, with their likenesses sold off and used any way producers and studios want." The union member is referring to the opening episode of the latest season of the Charlie Brooker-created satire starring Salma Hayek and Annie Murphy. "We want a solid pathway. The studios countered with 'trust us' – we don't."

 

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Just like the striking WGA before it, the Fran Drescher-led 160,000-strong union wants heavy duty assurances and guarantees in terms of the deployment, reach and scope of AI in the industry for its members. Having just put a new set of proposals on the negotiating table, the AMPTP allegedly doesn't want to discuss the potentially game-changing matter in any substantial way, various sources tell me.

"The agreement with the DGA is a good basis for discussion," a streamer exec said of the deal for AI "consultation" the guild made with the AMPTP and overwhelmingly ratified last month. "This is a town [built] on relationships. Only the whackjobs want to blow this up; they're the ones stopping a deal," he asserted.

"This is a power grab, pure and simple," a well-established actress said of the AMPTP's stance on AI. "We see what's coming. They can't pretend we won't be used digitally or become the source of new, cheap, AI-created content for the studios."

 

 

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Cognizant to the perils of AI, one insider also sees the emphasis on the technology in the labor talks as a red herring of sorts.

"What AI does is in these talks is allow the Meryl Streeps of the world and other high-profile union members to focus their attention on the fact of an underlying transformational change," he warned. "It's a straightforward-enough concept that people who ordinarily don't get involved in labor relations can see this whole business model and where the business is going is bad. Bad for me, bad for everyone. And it becomes a rallying cry, but the issues run deeper than that."

 

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Originally set to lapse at midnight on June 30, the current contract was extended by both sides at the end of last month with less than six hours to go. Now the contract will expire at midnight PT on July 12.

https://deadline.com/2023/07/actors-strike-ai-kim-kardashian-fran-drescher-contract-deadline-1235432142/

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Expect the release schedule for the next few months to get shifted too. If actors can’t promote the movies that’s gonna hurt.

[ZattMurdock]

Gary Whitta on Threads:

 

https://www.threads.net/t/CuivtUjL7Fr/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Edited July 11, 2023 by ZattMurdock

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If a SAG strike does ultimately actually happen, I imagine that there will be a rather quick resolution to avoid an industry wide shutdown on par with the early days of COVID for too long (if at all).

 

I'm in the complete opposite camp.  Past isn't always prelude, but the last major SAG strike lasted three months and that was over Major Economic Issues at the heart of Hollywood.  The major one before that lasted six weeks and the one before that one lasted two and a half months.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hollywood_strikes

 

This just seems to me to be a fundamental structure on an industry battle, and those are usually pretty squirrely. 

 

If a strike does occur and it lasts longer than 48 or so hours, then the earliest I personally see it getting resolved is a month to six weeks.  And I wouldn't give it great odds at that, either.

 

My personal over/under line is somewhere in October or November, which is on the long side of a strike of this nature, yes.  At the same time the 2000 commercial strike lasted six months, so maybe not.

 

This is a case where I hope I'm wrong but as the saying goes, "I have a bad feeling about this."

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Expect the release schedule for the next few months to get shifted too. If actors can’t promote the movies that’s gonna hurt.

Unlikely since 1) the chances of a SAG strike lasting until the early fall festivals are set to arrive is...let's just say slim and 2) once Barbie/Oppenheimer are released in less than two weeks, there's nothing much that's looking to really move the needle in terms of generating interest (it's possible, if not likely, after TMNT/Meg 2 the first weekend of August we don't have another $20M+ opener until Equalizer 3 on Labor Day weekend), so the studios aren't sweating in terms of promotion. Yet. Fortunate timing this is happening right as the summer movie season is beginning to wind down.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I'm in the complete opposite camp.  Past isn't always prelude, but the last major SAG strike lasted three months and that was over Major Economic Issues at the heart of Hollywood.  The major one before that lasted six weeks and the one before that one lasted two and a half months.

 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hollywood_strikes

 

This just seems to me to be a fundamental structure on an industry battle, and those are usually pretty squirrely. 

 

If a strike does occur and it lasts longer than 48 or so hours, then the earliest I personally see it getting resolved is a month to six weeks.  And I wouldn't give it great odds at that, either.

 

My personal over/under line is somewhere in October or November, which is on the long side of a strike of this nature, yes.  At the same time the 2000 commercial strike lasted six months, so maybe not.

 

This is a case where I hope I'm wrong but as the saying goes, "I have a bad feeling about this."

I think the fundamental differences that streaming and modernity overall brings to how people consume art will be a key factor here. 

 

Unlike any other decade, we have a massive and nearly unsustainable amount of productions now and that was way smaller back then. And this isn´t even factoring that even TV Shows now have movie-type productions. The money losses will be way bigger than ever in a daily basis.

 

I think a month of strike in today´s world could be just as impactful or even more impactful than 3-4 months of strike decades ago, since now everything happens too fast, audiences are bored as hell and could find new shiny things to care about way quickier and there´s way more volume of productions hapenning. 

 

Of course we´re all just making predictions out of something unpredictable at this point, but i feel the rush of today´s world could make things with the strike move faster as well, even if the negative impact of it could be bigger even if it´s quicker.

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think the fundamental differences that streaming and modernity overall brings to how people consume art will be a key factor here. 

 

Unlike any other decade, we have a massive and nearly unsustainable amount of productions now and that was way smaller back then. And this isn´t even factoring that even TV Shows now have movie-type productions. The money losses will be way bigger than ever in a daily basis.

 

I think a month of strike in today´s world could be just as impactful or even more impactful than 3-4 months of strike decades ago, since now everything happens too fast, audiences are bored as hell and could find new shiny things to care about way quickier and there´s way more volume of productions hapenning. 

 

Of course we´re all just making predictions out of something unpredictable at this point, but i feel the rush of today´s world could make things with the strike move faster as well, even if the negative impact of it could be bigger even if it´s quicker.

Never mind the fact that in a globalized world, I’d not put behind studios to get just a bunch of Dark wannabes from other parts of the world into production, and I’m looking specifically at Netflix here. 
 

Otherwise yeah, you both are making good points. One month now is a lot worse than it was back then, and while I could see it going for a long time like Porthos is saying, you do have a point that the catastrophic effects of something like this to the industry could be felt faster than back then, so who knows.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think the fundamental differences that streaming and modernity overall brings to how people consume art will be a key factor here. 

 

Unlike any other decade, we have a massive and nearly unsustainable amount of productions now and that was way smaller back then. And this isn´t even factoring that even TV Shows now have movie-type productions. The money losses will be way bigger than ever in a daily basis.

 

I think a month of strike in today´s world could be just as impactful or even more impactful than 3-4 months of strike decades ago, since now everything happens too fast, audiences are bored as hell and could find new shiny things to care about way quickier and there´s way more volume of productions hapenning. 

 

Of course we´re all just making predictions out of something unpredictable at this point, but i feel the rush of today´s world could make things with the strike move faster as well, even if the negative impact of it could be bigger even if it´s quicker.

 

It's that very glut though, as well as the amorphous like nature of no-longer-having-broadcast-TV-seasons-be-the-anchor-of-Hollywood which helps put me on the pessimistic side.  Production companies can start to space out already in the can/being worked on in post products.  They (and I'm looking directly at Netflix here) can get non-SAG produced content from other countries as a stop gap. 

 

Films are fairly screwed though, yes.  But TV?  Man, I dunno.  Hope I'm wrong like I said, but I ain't particularly hopeful at a quick resolution.

 

(and considering the last month to six weeks of the production of S2 of Andor is gonna be directly in the crosshairs of a SAG strike, you'd think I'd want to be optimistic.  Alas and alack...)

[grim22]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Unlikely since 1) the chances of a SAG strike lasting until the early fall festivals are set to arrive is...let's just say slim and 2) once Barbie/Oppenheimer are released in less than two weeks, there's nothing much that's looking to really move the needle in terms of generating interest (it's possible, if not likely, after TMNT/Meg 2 the first weekend of August we don't have another $20M+ opener until Equalizer 3 on Labor Day weekend), so the studios aren't sweating in terms of promotion. Yet. Fortunate timing this is happening right as the summer movie season is beginning to wind down.

 

Which conversely means it is happening as Fall TV season promotions are starting in August. And not being able to promote TV shows might hurt studios a lot more than promotions for movies. There are some big ticket shows which won't be able to be promoted like Ahsoka.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Which conversely means it is happening as Fall TV season promotions are starting in August. And not being able to promote TV shows might hurt studios a lot more than promotions for movies. There are some big ticket shows which won't be able to be promoted like Ahsoka.

Good point. Which is a shame since that’s clearly a Dave Filoni’s pet project and it has been a long ass run for him to get there.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Which conversely means it is happening as Fall TV season promotions are starting in August. And not being able to promote TV shows might hurt studios a lot more than promotions for movies. There are some big ticket shows which won't be able to be promoted like Ahsoka.

What is the fall TV season even going to look like? Most (all?) shows have been caught in the crosshairs of the strike.