Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[cookie]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Argo, which is similar in depicting an historical event but with a not super serious tone, grossed $100M in 2012 before Christmas & Awards seasons boosted it over $130M. Monuments men made $80M too 

Argo had life-or-death stakes. That movie even turns into a thriller in its last act. Monument's Men was a war movie. None of that can be applied to Air.

[grey ghost]

I wonder if the Spider-verse trilogy can get 3 out of 3 oscars for best animation.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

makes me wonder how much disney could have made from Prey if they didn't keep it a Hulu original

 

30/80

[screambaby]

18 minutes ago, cookie said:

Rio opened to like 1/5th of what Mario did and had next to no audience overlap with Scre4m. Competition wasn't really the problem.

It's not t a huge problem but one of many. I get the argument that it wasn't the time for a scream movie due to the other remakes at the time (2010's nightmare on elm  Street pretty much killed everything dead) but scream has always been a beast onto its own. The weinsteins interfered with production and didn't bother to market a 40 million dollar movie.

Edited April 22, 2023 by screambaby

[kayumanggi]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

4th biggest non-December.

 

Biggest for an animated film.

[screambaby]

14 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Wonder what EDR Saturday is looking like

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by screambaby

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, screambaby said:

It's not t a huge problem but one of many. I get the argument that it wasn't the time for a scream movie due to the other remakes at the time (2010's nightmare on elm  Street pretty much killed everything dead) but scream has always been a beast onto its own. The weinsteins interfered with production and didn't bother to market a 40 million dollar movie.

I don't think people loved Scream 3 either. That one marinated with people in the time before Scream 4. Likely didn't help either. Think the general consensus is that people prefer 1 and 2 to 3.

[kayumanggi]

21 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Technically anything that's not a comedy is 'drama' but how drama's used now is basically a movie without any Sci-Fi, Fantasy, or Horror elements really. Like just straight up real life stuff such as say movies like Moonlight, Boyhood etc

 

Going by that, then we can say dramas have been big in the past, some even breaking records like TITANIC. But yes, times have changed. The genre has rebounded a tiny bit from how it performed during the pandemic, though.

[Austin]

27 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I wonder if the Spider-verse trilogy can get 3 out of 3 oscars for best animation.

No, Mario is obviously winning it this year.

[JohnnyGossamer]

23 minutes ago, Austin said:

No, Mario is obviously winning it this year.

Are you being sarcastic? That would be more shocking than it's box office run. Highest grossing animated movies don't automatically get that award. For instance, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (110K WW) won it last year. Rise of Gru (940M WW) wasn't even nominated last year for Best Animated Feature last year... Nominees were Pinocchio, Puss In Boots, Marcel the Shell, Sea Beast and Turning Red. 

 

I imagine the favorites this year are likely Elemental and Spider-verse. Potentially Suzume might sneak in there too. And, I'm probably unaware of a few other animated movies that'll be in contention.

 

I do think Super Mario will be nominated for and maybe even win Best Original Song with Jack Black's Peaches though.

Edited April 22, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[kayumanggi]

11 minutes ago, Austin said:

No, Mario is obviously winning it this year.

 

It might not even be nominated.

[cookie]

21 minutes ago, Eric Williams said:

I mean obviously I wasn't expecting Air to make 200M, but I think 70M+ wasn't out of reach pre-pandemic for an easy crowdpleaser with a big ensemble cast and an easy hook. 10 years ago, you had American Hustle, Lone Survivor, The Butler, and Captain Phillips all making 100M. And between 70-100M, you had 42, Saving Mr. Banks, Safe Haven. Even Great Gatsby can be thrown in there, though that of course is based off an iconic book. And 5 years ago, even if you take out stuff like A Star is Born or BoRap, there was The Mule, Green Book, and I Can Only Imagine (and I guess also Creed 2/Fifty Shades 3, though of course iconic franchises). All these movies, if they dropped today, would have only grossed 55M at best, and more likely just 25-30M. That's what I'm getting at here.

I don't see how they're really comparable to Air, though?

 

American Hustle and The Mule are about crime. Lone Survivor and Captain Philips are about real people trapped in life-or-death situations. Safe Haven is a love story based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, which was a steady brand at the time. 42 is a sports drama about the athlete himself. Green Book is about race relations and panders to white people fantasies. I Can Only Imagine falls in the same category as Elvis and BoRap in that it's essentially a music biopic, only for a religious audience.

 

Compared to that, what's Air about? If you're not into basketball or business dealings, what's supposed to sell you on it other than the cast? The only one I can think of that directly compares is Saving Mr. Banks, but it was also about Disney and a big nostalgic property in Mary Poppins.

 

I think people are overstating Air having an "easy hook". I think the only thing that changed to its detriment is that star power alone doesn't sell people on movies anymore.

[PrinceRico]

32 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It might not even be nominated.

It definitely won’t be nominated. No illumination film has ever been nominated and Mario definitely won’t change that. Right now it’s Spider vs elementals. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by PrinceRico

[keysersoze123]

What's the minimum increase that keeps 60m in play. I would say around 87% increase for ~26.3 and around 25% drop tomorrow. Last Sunday drop was crazy but that should have had significant spillover effect considering how crazy Saturday was. Not sure this weekend it will be able to replicate that. For 30% Sunday drop, it needs ~ 92% to hit 27.05m to keep 60m in play.  

 

That said high 50s 3rd weekend is still uber strong. 

[cookie]

25 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

It definitely won’t be nominated. No illumination film has ever been nominated and Mario definitely won’t change that. Right now it’s Spider vs elementals. 

Despicable Me 2 was nominated. The first film probably would've snatched a nom too if the category wasn't limited to three that year.

 

Not that Mario is likely at all to be nominated given there's bound to be plenty of animated films out this year with stronger reviews than it.

Edited April 22, 2023 by cookie

[superduperm]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What's the minimum increase that keeps 60m in play. I would say around 87% increase for ~26.3 and around 25% drop tomorrow. Last Sunday drop was crazy but that should have had significant spillover effect considering how crazy Saturday was. Not sure this weekend it will be able to replicate that. For 30% Sunday drop, it needs ~ 92% to hit 27.05m to keep 60m in play.  

 

That said high 50s 3rd weekend is still uber strong. 

Any idea what the number for today could be? Or are you simply just trying to figure out what gets the weekend to 60?

 

To answer your question, though, I think $27.5M should be the target.

Edited April 22, 2023 by superduperm

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

40 minutes ago, cookie said:

I don't see how they're really comparable to Air, though?

 

American Hustle and The Mule are about crime. Lone Survivor and Captain Philips are about real people trapped in life-or-death situations. Safe Haven is a love story based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, which was a steady brand at the time. 42 is a sports drama about the athlete himself. Green Book is about race relations and panders to white people fantasies. I Can Only Imagine falls in the same category as Elvis and BoRap in that it's essentially a music biopic, only for a religious audience.

 

Compared to that, what's Air about? If you're not into basketball or business dealings, what's supposed to sell you on it other than the cast? The only one I can think of that directly compares is Saving Mr. Banks, but it was also about Disney and a big nostalgic property in Mary Poppins.

 

I think people are overstating Air having an "easy hook". I think the only thing that changed to its detriment is that star power alone doesn't sell people on movies anymore.

Air is somewhat comparable to The Big Short and Moneyball in being process movies, and it's true both ended up in the $70-75 million domestic range (though with inflation, their ticket sales would get them closer to the century mark). So maybe it's true that it wouldn't have been huge, before. IMO, Air is more of a comedy than a drama, or at least equal parts. It competing in the Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes would be justifiable.

 

 

More $100+ million pre-pandemic dramas (domestic totals):

 

The Upside, $108m

Hustlers, $104m

The Mule, $103m

Wonder, $132m

Sully, $125m

Hidden Figures, $169m 

Edited April 22, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

45 minutes ago, cookie said:

I don't see how they're really comparable to Air, though?

 

American Hustle and The Mule are about crime. Lone Survivor and Captain Philips are about real people trapped in life-or-death situations. Safe Haven is a love story based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, which was a steady brand at the time. 42 is a sports drama about the athlete himself. Green Book is about race relations and panders to white people fantasies. I Can Only Imagine falls in the same category as Elvis and BoRap in that it's essentially a music biopic, only for a religious audience.

 

Compared to that, what's Air about? If you're not into basketball or business dealings, what's supposed to sell you on it other than the cast? The only one I can think of that directly compares is Saving Mr. Banks, but it was also about Disney and a big nostalgic property in Mary Poppins.

 

I think people are overstating Air having an "easy hook". I think the only thing that changed to its detriment is that star power alone doesn't sell people on movies anymore.

Moneyball (an equally accurate comparison for Air) also didn't come close to $100M less than a dozen years ago either (and but was definitely viewed as a hit back in the day too). Air has done pretty well, all things considered.

[Fanboy]

I'm still a 60M believer for Mario this weekend. Great hold, but the success story of this weekend is Evil Dead Rise. Considering this was going to go to streaming, this opening number justifies its theatrical release given I think this will have much better legs than the 2013 film (and a B CinemaScore for an Evil Dead film is very good). It's also great to see something from Warner Bros. do well, even if it's on a smaller scale. 

[cookie]

5 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Air is somewhat comparable to The Big Short and Moneyball in being process movies, and it's true both ended up in the $70-75 million domestic range (though with inflation, their ticket sales would get them closer to the century mark). So maybe it's true that it wouldn't have been huge, before. IMO, Air is more of a comedy than a drama, or at least equal parts. It competing in the Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes would be justifiable.

 

 

More $100+ million pre-pandemic dramas (domestic totals):

 

The Upside, $108m

Hustlers, $104m

The Mule, $103m

Wonder, $132m

Sully, $125m

Hidden Figures, $169m 

I incidentally think Big Short/Moneyball DOM is the highest Air could've gone, and it's going to end maybe $10-$15m below that threshold, so not too far off.