Weekend Thread | Friday #s: Mario 14.1, Evil Dead 10.3, Covenant 2.25, John Wick 1.6, Air 1.4

[John Marston]

sucks that Scream 6 won't be able to reach 110m or more now, It's theater losses the last two weeks have been ugly

[TigerPaw]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

sucks that Scream 6 won't be able to reach 110m or more now, It's theater losses the last two weeks have been ugly

So many horror releases in the last few weeks.. feels almost like Halloween season.

[Felandria]

15 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Finally some good legs for some of these. Maybe a bit too late for DnD to hit $100m DOM tho right? Looks more like $95ish total. Should be another good drop next weekend but then GOTG will knock it out, even if that underperforms

Theater drop should be minimal, Renfield and Pope will bleed more.

[TigerPaw]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I expect D&D to have better saturday increase than other 2 considering its more family friendly. That said JW4 should finish 3rd. It could be close between Air and D&D. 

Based on the last couple of weeks; JW4's sat jump is almost on par (perhaps due to the long run time; people cant really watch a 3hr film after a full day of work).

 

But D&D has advantage of theater counts. JW4 losing theaters faster despite beating D&D the last 2 weekends.

[M37]

So I said previously that $600M wasn't on the table unless Mario was able to get to $60M this weekend, and since it looks like we're in that range, here are some possible extrapolations based on comp mulitpliers, using a $60M weekend and $75M week

 

Beauty & Beast (Week 3, 3/31) = $573-$582M

Jungle Book (Week 3, 4/29) = $588-$592M

Sonic 2 (Week 3, 4/22) = $607-$614M

 

I've been mostly eyeing the JB comp for a variety of reasons, which still doesn't project to $600+, but the Sonic 2 comp raised my eyebrows. After a big drop from OW to week 3, starting from a much lower value, where it theoretically would shed theaters and gross faster, Sonic actually had very solid holding run from late April into June, thanks in large part due to the lack of family alternatives (see also Bad Guys, Puss in Boots). Mario similarly has a fairly open runway until Little Mermaid and Spider-Verse in back to back weeks should mostly knock it down

 

tl;dr - $600M is very much in play, but absolutely not locked, going to have continue to watch and see. If next week can manage a sub-30% drop, then its got a very good shot of crossing that threshold, though catching all the way up to Incredibles 2 ($608M) might be a stretch

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Lionsgate lowballing the weekend per Deadline's chart. I doubt it will gross lower than Air or D&D this weekend.

 

What is their logic behind a -34% weekend from a -25% Friday?

[screambaby]

51 minutes ago, John Marston said:

sucks that Scream 6 won't be able to reach 110m or more now, It's theater losses the last two weeks have been ugly

Coming to streaming  this week. Not sure why paramount  hasn't announced a bluray/DVD release yet

[Cmasterclay]

I'm as liberal as it gets but the 2013 Evil Dead movie made me sound like Pat Robertson after I saw it. Just found it so vile, and thought the same of this one's trailer. THAT SAID, I'm very happy to see such a great number for it and continue to add depth to our box office. I thought it was much more niche than this.

 

Sad to see Air and Dungeons, my two favorites of the year thus far, continue to have meh numbers.

[Ryan Reynolds]

24 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Coming to streaming  this week. Not sure why paramount  hasn't announced a bluray/DVD release yet

Paramount cares more about P+, definitely at least 2 months away from a disc release , its just what they do now

[Eric Lasagna]

22 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Sad to see Air and Dungeons, my two favorites of the year thus far, continue to have meh numbers.

I know this is kind of sad to say, but Air's in a new box office world where House of Gucci numbers are the ceiling for movies like these. So close to that film and over the 50M threshold is just a victory we have to accept now. 🤷‍♂️

[MovieMan89]

Good for Mario. Would have preferred more like 16 for my 61-64 prediction I’ve had all week, but it could maybe still scratch 60. Still insane for a 3rd weekend that’s not even James Cameron. 
 

Still fully on board over I2, but the insane family film slate from late May to late June does have me just a tiny bit concerned. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

sucks that Scream 6 won't be able to reach 110m or more now, It's theater losses the last two weeks have been ugly

Honestly this is a franchise that really has no business being this successful in 2023 when they tried to revive it back when the nostalgia actually made sense in the early 10s and it failed miserably. The fact that this is the highest grossing Scream is in and of itself incredible. 

[Bob Train]

Spider-Verse is being overestimated tbh. The first one only made 380m. I could see this new one being a little higher if WOM is on par with the first, but it could be lower due to multiverse fatigue and extremely heavy and direct-genre competition (Elemental, TLM, etc.)

 

It's not winning the summer though. Flash, MI:DR, and IJ are more likely.

[Ledmonkey96]

1 hour ago, Eric Williams said:

I know this is kind of sad to say, but Air's in a new box office world where House of Gucci numbers are the ceiling for movies like these. So close to that film and over the 50M threshold is just a victory we have to accept now. 🤷‍♂️

Didn't Elvis come out after House of Gucchi?

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Didn't Elvis come out after House of Gucchi?

I don’t think Elvis was R rated?

[Whydidyoudoit]

4 hours ago, OceanBlvd said:

Hitting a billion next week .

Main Pop Girl Peaches is winning the year I fear  

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly this is a franchise that really has no business being this successful in 2023 when they tried to revive it back when the nostalgia actually made sense in the early 10s and it failed miserably. The fact that this is the highest grossing Scream is in and of itself incredible. 

Scream 4 failed cause the weimstein pervs didn't market it and released it against rio. Went against what worked for the other 3 screams  (and the 2 that have followed it)

[M37]

41 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Didn't Elvis come out after House of Gucchi?

Yes, but Elvis had the brand of both the subject and director, which aided in the perception it was made for theatrical release, banking nearly $50M in the first week 

 

Air and Gucci are much more in the could have been a straight to streaming flick, and audiences largely treat them as such, waiting for home viewing, lowering the ceiling on BO$

[kayumanggi]

 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly this is a franchise that really has no business being this successful in 2023 when they tried to revive it back when the nostalgia actually made sense in the early 10s and it failed miserably. The fact that this is the highest grossing Scream is in and of itself incredible. 

 

Slasher genre was dead in 2011. Early 2010s were peak PARANORMAL ACTIVITY. SCREAM can thank HALLOWEEN 11 for revitalizing the slasher genre like SCREAM did in the 90s and which H20 benefited from. It's all circular!