GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[thedude11]

who would’ve though the word “okay” could derail the thread for 5 pages

[upriser7]

 

[thedude11]

17 minutes ago, Barbie said:

that piranka woman is just  commercial poison

 

i wonder if ari aster predicted beau would bomb like this and didnt care?

her PR team works double overtime to make her seem like a big deal but really no one cares about her

[WorkingonaName]

3 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

 

This is the first time I'm happy to lose money. 

[JohnCarterofEarth]

I think $850M is possible if Fast X outright flops. 

[MovieMan89]

I don’t doubt Sunday is pretty underestimated, based on all WOM reports we’ve seen. But I also doubt a second sequel superhero/mcu film opening in the summer can go over 2.6x or so. It’s going to take like the peak of the very peak of MCU WOM for that. And there’s been some damn high WOM peaks in that franchise. 

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Terrible for GotG under the context of what the first two did and how good WOM seems to be. Was this headed to sub 100 OW if the WOM hadn’t been there? Probably. If anyone needed true proof of MCU being hurt, this is definitely it. I think higher than 2.5-2.6x would be extremely hard given the nature of the movie and the calendar, but we’ll see.  
 

Bad for Mario. Hope it gets a bit closer to -50% for actuals at least. Otherwise I’m worried about I2 for the first time. Still think 600 is more likely than not. I’ve never seen a movie breakout like this in its first month and then fall off a cliff, so there’s no reason to not think this isn’t a big anomaly in its run. Definitely expect course correcting the next two weekends. 

**cough** The Force Awakens **cough**

It has happened before. I personally had hoped it would stay under 50% and over the 20m mark, but many of us have tried to warn you over the past month that this was coming. 🤷‍♂️

[DisposedData]

5 minutes ago, JohnCarterofEarth said:

I think $850M is possible if Fast X outright flops. 

It's going to flop in the states, but I doubt it will flop overseas.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, narniadis said:

**cough** The Force Awakens **cough**

It has happened before. I personally had hoped it would stay under 50% and over the 20m mark, but many of us have tried to warn you over the past month that this was coming. 🤷‍♂️

I’ve mentioned TFA before though as a very different case that shouldn’t count. For one thing holidays, for another most anticipated fan driven movie of all time… 

 

I was always prepared for a 50% drop as a possibility this weekend (not worse than that though). That’s always been a factor in me saying 600 is happening all this time. 

[ringedmortality]

So why is Guardians 3 doing better overseas this time around? Does the darker tone just work better in other places?

[narniadis]

I'd love to be wrong about Gv3, but give me what Charlie is smoking. The performance of Mario this weekend should if nothing else, highlight just how much on some levels Fast and TLM will hurt before the June death march. 300m should be the goal. This whole thing is reminding me of Pirates 3, minus the bad wom.... it was dicey to get to 300m for a bit with that one and it opened way larger. 

[ThomasNicole]

20 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Empire thinks it is only dropping 15% on Sunday 

That is way more reasonable than 32% drop and he probably have some data to say that 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

So why is Guardians 3 doing better overseas this time around? Does the darker tone just work better in other places?

 

I mean look at how well Batman does in many OS countries. In the UK, The Batman beat every MCU film that year apart from Doctor Strange and even then the difference was minimal. 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I'd love to be wrong about Gv3, but give me what Charlie is smoking. The performance of Mario this weekend should if nothing else, highlight just how much on some levels Fast and TLM will hurt before the June death march. 300m should be the goal. This whole thing is reminding me of Pirates 3, minus the bad wom.... it was dicey to get to 300m for a bit with that one and it opened way larger. 

Yeah, really the only precedent for this movie to come anywhere near touching 3x as a third installment in a superhero franchise is No Way Home. Massively major differences there though in a)holiday release w an empty cal for months b) movie that brought people “back” from covid c) tons of buzz from people on all the “rumors” being true. GotG has none of those things going for it. 

[ringedmortality]

Jat on Reddit:

 

So let me get this straight.

You have no data with you but you are gonna pass personal mean comments on someone who actually has data & shared his insights, because…?

Its a BO sub, so react to the information in hand i.e. GoTG 3 is gonna have sub-20% SUN drop.

And even if it don’t, EC owes you ungrateful arrogant fools nothing to get those comments.

[DisposedData]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

That is way more reasonable than 32% drop and he probably have some data to say that 

Maybe so but sub 20% drop seems extremely optimistic. I guess we shall see.

[MovieMan89]

If it actually goes as high as 120, I’ll say 300 just barely happens. See it having to scrape and fight to that though. 

[TwoMisfits]

With no big opener for 3 weeks after open (Top Gun Maverick being the 1st), Dr Strange MoM got just under a 2.2x, keeping PLFS for 3 full weekends.

 

In pure dollar form, MoM got $224M more BO after OW.

 

I have to think for best case, somewhere between 2.2X and +$224M is the absolute range we'll see for GOTG 3.  So, 2.2x* 120 to 120+224 if we believe Empire's +$6M today for $264M to $344M at best...so even then, I can't get to Charlie's $350M...

[John Marston]

Sub 20 Sunday for a non holiday Sunday doesn’t seem possible. Has it ever happened?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

With no big opener for 3 weeks after open (Top Gun Maverick being the 1st), Dr Strange MoM got just under a 2.2x, keeping PLFS for 3 full weekends.

 

In pure dollar form, MoM got $224M more BO after OW.

 

I have to think for best case, somewhere between 2.2X and +$224M is the absolute range we'll see for GOTG 3.  So, 2.2x* 120 to 120+224 if we believe Empire's +$6M today for $264M to $344M at best...so even then, I can't get to Charlie's $350M...

Yeah and MoM had it infinitely easier for competition overall. GotG is good to get slammed harder than just about any early May movie ever starting Memorial onwards.

 

Still not sure what studios are thinking with that June slate this year, it’s incredibly stupid. Especially now in a writer’s strike. Paramount deserves Transformers to be an epic fail if they’re really that stupid to not at least see how they’ve sentenced that to a massacre with that release.