2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Bob Train]

 Why does Disney take so long to make Frozen sequels, It's their biggest animated franchise bar none but for some reason, it takes them 7 years to make a sequel. Dreamworks used to be able to pump out Shrek sequels every 2-4 years, and the same with Kung Fu Panda and HTTYD. 

 

I'd assume the mouse would want them to fast-track sequels given not only it is extremely lucrative at the box office, but toy sales, merch, streaming, and rentals are colossal.

 

Maybe it's good for the health of the animators though lol.

 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by Bob Train

[AniNate]

15 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Maybe it's good for the health of the animators though lol.

 

This is how I prefer to read it, yes.

 

I know they're a business but the reason they've built up such a fanbase is because they're seen as "a step above" the average mainstream animation studios. Their reputation is they don't just make sequels to make money, and it's only been in the last decade that they've really been open to doing them on a regular basis at all. Doing them too often risks diluting the brand which is what eventually happened with all those Shrek sequels, and even Disney themselves have learned that the hard way through their aborted Star Wars spinoff ventures. Frozen 3 is already the first threequel WDA has ever done in their history as it is, and I think a certain distance from the mediocre second movie is going to help it feel like an event again. 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2023 by AniNate

[Flip]

21 hours ago, poweranimals said:

So what do we think will be the biggest flop of the next year? I don't think anyone is expecting Kraven the Hunter to do well but it doesn't look all that expensive either. I'm kind of getting Flash vibes from Madame Web though. A huge multiverse type of movie which could easily go south with Sony's track record. Other than that, I'm not really sure. Maybe Ghostbusters? I really enjoyed Afterlife but I don't see a lot of demand for a sequel.

Elio, opening in a crowded March and the budget will be at least 200m.

[Flip]

I really believe that Inside Out 2 is primed for a Finding Dory performance, we've seen with Dory, Incredibles 2, and even Toy Story 3 how Pixar sequels with around a decade wait outperform the originals by significant margins. 

[CJohn]

Theaters finally accept defeat and close doors.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Theaters finally accept defeat and close doors.

Doing your pessimistic doom and gloom thing I see. 

[Bob Train]

With the Taylor Swift thing about to do huge numbers, maybe that guy who said theaters would become roadside attractions, with nothing succeeding except for "event movies" was right. Cinema loses.

[AniNate]

4 hours ago, Flip said:

I really believe that Inside Out 2 is primed for a Finding Dory performance, we've seen with Dory, Incredibles 2, and even Toy Story 3 how Pixar sequels with around a decade wait outperform the originals by significant margins. 

 

Difference is Stanton and Bird came back for their respective sequels, and Unkrich on TS3 was still an original braintrust member. Kelsey Mann is no Pete Docter. Everything I've heard about Inside Out 2 so far does not inspire confidence between Docter not directing and Kaling and Hader not returning.

 

If it's got good reviews, sure, I can see it being a big hit, but I'm not really willing to give it as much benefit of the doubt as Elio personally.

 

 

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by AniNate

[WorkingonaName]

8 hours ago, Bob Train said:

With the Taylor Swift thing about to do huge numbers, maybe that guy who said theaters would become roadside attractions, with nothing succeeding except for "event movies" was right. Cinema loses.

The movie musical comeback is upon us. 

[Liiviig 1998]

10 hours ago, Flip said:

I really believe that Inside Out 2 is primed for a Finding Dory performance, we've seen with Dory, Incredibles 2, and even Toy Story 3 how Pixar sequels with around a decade wait outperform the originals by significant margins. 

Yeah pre covid I would agree . But now the climate has changed for Pixar and Disney overall.

 

Doubt it's even gonna top the original.

 

700-800m would be good for this. 

 

[The GOAT]

10 hours ago, Bob Train said:

With the Taylor Swift thing about to do huge numbers, maybe that guy who said theaters would become roadside attractions, with nothing succeeding except for "event movies" was right. Cinema loses.

If the theaters were still offering $5 tickets like they did in 2000s, I would wager the business would reach all time peak ticket sales. 

 

[poweranimals]

On 9/10/2023 at 3:23 PM, Flip said:

Elio, opening in a crowded March and the budget will be at least 200m.

These budgets are getting out of control.

[JustLurking]

On 9/10/2023 at 10:53 PM, AniNate said:

 

Difference is Stanton and Bird came back for their respective sequels, and Unkrich on TS3 was still an original braintrust member. Kelsey Mann is no Pete Docter. Everything I've heard about Inside Out 2 so far does not inspire confidence between Docter not directing and Kaling and Hader not returning.

 

If it's got good reviews, sure, I can see it being a big hit, but I'm not really willing to give it as much benefit of the doubt as Elio personally.

 

 

 

IO2 will easily outdo Elio.

[AniNate]

Quite the convincing rebuttal there.

 

I may very well be wrong and underestimating Pixar and Kelsey Mann, but Lightyear, the Cars sequels, and to a certain extent Monsters University are evidence that their sequels aren't always the kinds of audience draws their original movies are. In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not much of a fan of the original Inside Out, but I would be more ready to accept a sequel as another big blockbuster if Docter were directing it, and frankly I'm rooting for the original movie to be more of a success because I think that's a much healthier creative model for Pixar long-term. 

Edited September 12, 2023 by AniNate

[JustLurking]

On 9/12/2023 at 3:17 PM, AniNate said:

Quite the convincing rebuttal there.

 

I may very well be wrong and underestimating Pixar and Kelsey Mann, but Lightyear, the Cars sequels, and to a certain extent Monsters University are evidence that their sequels aren't always the kinds of audience draws their original movies are. In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not much of a fan of the original Inside Out, but I would be more ready to accept a sequel as another big blockbuster if Docter were directing it, and frankly I'm rooting for the original movie to be more of a success because I think that's a much healthier creative model for Pixar long-term. 

I'm not sure why you're even bringing out Cars here considering it isn't even that beloved a film and yet its sequel still posted an increase over the original! I would take IO2 over Elio even if this had a decrease.

 

This prediction has nothing to do with what I'm rooting for (fwiw, I am not personally particularly excited for IO2 as while I loved the first film that felt like a complete affair to me and I don't have much of a need for this sequel whatsoever), it's just what I believe the far more likely outcome to be - animated sci-fi is BO poison and honestly even with the great legs Elemental displayed it unfortunately still showed that the Pixar brand alone is struggling to carry a film through with its opening, and that might be even more of an issue next year with a (potentially?) fuller calendar in terms of animated releases

 

Especially given that IO wasn't even a very china-reliant film I honestly don't really see a decline scenario where the film tanks as hard as you're anticipating, and I don't think the potential for Elio is high enough to be able to touch IO2 even on a mediocre outlook

[AniNate]

To be clear, I was only talking about domestic here. I'm not expecting IO to do worse globally, sequels are a much easier sell abroad than original sci Fi animated movies. But I can see a scenario where IO2 does sub 200 domestic if it sucks and Elio does 200+ with Wall-E level reviews.

[stripe]

Biggest dissapointment: Joker 2 (under 200M)

Biggest surprise: Twisters (+300M)

Biggest DOM: Deadpool 3 (475M)

Biggest WW: Mufasa (1.3b)

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

Biggest dissapointment: Joker 2 (under 200M)

Biggest surprise: Twisters (+300M)

Biggest DOM: Deadpool 3 (475M)

Biggest WW: Mufasa (1.3b)

If Twisters even comes out next year. It was in the middle of shooting when the actors went out. Being a vfx heavy movie does not help. For sure I doubt it makes it's summer date. Same with DP 3 and not sure about Mufassa. 

[Torontofan]

Inside out was one of pixar biggest original films apart from Coco and was widely liked. 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2023 by Torontofan

[Flip]

On 9/15/2023 at 8:37 AM, stripe said:

Biggest dissapointment: Joker 2 (under 200M)

Biggest surprise: Twisters (+300M)

Biggest DOM: Deadpool 3 (475M)

Biggest WW: Mufasa (1.3b)

Joker 2 WW OW will beat 200m