Asyulus Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 (edited) On 5/14/2024 at 9:48 PM, Asyulus said: My summer 2024 predictions: Rank. Title | DOM | WW 1. Inside Out 2 | $580M DOM | $1.225B WW 2. Deadpool & Wolverine | $510M DOM | $1.13B WW 3. Despicable Me 4 | $230M DOM | $840M WW 4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die | $180M DOM | $455M WW 5. The Garfield Movie | $130M DOM | $370M WW 6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | $150M DOM | $365M WW 7. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | $130M DOM | $340M WW 8. IF | $110M DOM | $310M WW 9. A Quiet Place: Day One | $125M DOM | $280M WW 10. Trap | $80M DOM | $190M WW 11. Twisters | $70M DOM | $185M WW 12. The Fall Guy | $70M DOM | $150M WW 13. Alien: Romulus | $55M DOM | $135M WW 14. Fly Me to the Moon | $60M DOM | $120M WW 15. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 | $60M DOM | $105M WW 16. Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 2 | $55M DOM | $90M WW 17. It Ends with Us | $40M DOM | $85M WW 18. MaXXXine | $60M DOM | $80M WW 19. Borderlands | $35M DOM | $75M WW 20. The Crow | $30M DOM | $65M WW Some of my tidbits: Inside Out 2 could pull an Incredibles 2 given its huge TikTok buzz and marketing, in addition to having a shot at #1 worldwide 2024. Even if its OW isn’t groundbreaker, legs and WOM will pull it way up similar to already divisive Elemental. I can see Despicable Me 4 dropping from Minions 2 given the latter had “Gentleminions” trend written over it and it is one of the franchises where the spin-offs gross more than main franchise installments. Also it will have a more restrained China box office which DM3 had benefited greatly. As much as its entertaining to watch, the franchise clearly has run through its course in terms of quality. I think Kevin Costner’s Horizon saga is getting massively over predicted here big time, especially because a 3-hour rated R western drama film with a more limited/niche demographic is an extremely tough sell for general audiences. Each installment will be lucky to hit a hundred million dollars worldwide. The reviews aren’t helping either. Edited May 20 by Asyulus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 Two more movies from Lionsgate have been given a date. 09.13 THE KILLER'S GAME 10.18 FLIGHT RISK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 2 hours ago, kayumanggi said: Two more movies from Lionsgate have been given a date. 09.13 THE KILLER'S GAME 10.18 FLIGHT RISK And maybe one of these will actually crack 20 m DM if they even put at least the barest minimum of marketing towards them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 @Asyulus you're one of the most accurate users on this entire forum but there is literally 0% chance IO2 comes anywhere close to your $580M DOM prediction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 “In today’s modern theatrical marketplace, the emphasis should shift from the short-term gain to the long-term playability, since this is now a game of yards instead of inches,” Dergarabedian says. “And the analysis of what constitutes a hit or a flop must be reevaluated.” Good luck convincing reddit and this forum of that 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 6 hours ago, AniNate said: “In today’s modern theatrical marketplace, the emphasis should shift from the short-term gain to the long-term playability, since this is now a game of yards instead of inches,” Dergarabedian says. “And the analysis of what constitutes a hit or a flop must be reevaluated.” Good luck convincing reddit and this forum of that That box office Reddit is like a meetup for people with brain damage. Literally the only sage advice people there can offer is “just make movies cheaper” and “just make them good.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 I mean really the game has always been long term, it just doesn't make for as dramatic conversation as short term, easily quantified data like box office receipts on opening weekend. People fancy each box office run as like a sports match against its production budget (or in some cases, past franchise entries) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 15 hours ago, Speedorito said: That box office Reddit is like a meetup for people with brain damage. Literally the only sage advice people there can offer is “just make movies cheaper” and “just make them good.” This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 I don’t think theaters are going to back to how they were 30, 20 or even 10 years ago anytime soon. The pandemic and the rise of streaming were a game changer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnumbers Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 (edited) 15 hours ago, JimmyB said: This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit. The Beekeeper, Mean Girls, Bob Marley, Dune: Part 2, Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters, Godzilla X Kong, Civil War, Challengers, Kingdom Apes, and probably Garfield are all movies performing at the least solidly even if with some Asia problems. People are coming to the theaters if there's something they want to see. And don't even come with 55M budget for Challengers. Who gives. That movie doing over 80M is good. People were nice to Air for doing 90M on a 90M budget so...Please. Obviously there's a Over budget issue too and there is a bigger issue in bringing audiences in for sure. Movies have a harder time being hits. But honestly...there hasn't been a Flop this year yet that has me "That doesn't make sense". May be disappointing but still. Even if Furiosa came in with +40M 4-day. Even if The Fall Guy came at 35M. They're extremely overbudgeted movies put on pedestals for the release dates they're in. Shame that Disney got scared and moved Apes out. And shame that Deadpool 3 had to move. But it is what it is. I'm glad all of this is happening now, in 2024. I had a bad feeling about 2024, specially 1st Half and it is panning out. I feel like all of these existential questions will be heavily neutered soon. Edited May 25 by justnumbers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 18 hours ago, JimmyB said: This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit. Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said: Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing Are you sponsored by Reddit? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said: Reddit is the best social media website of all time a) Talk about damming with faint praise. That’s like saying you’re an incredibly smart student because you got a D+ and the kid next to you got an F. b) Lol no. Maybe if you’re a cringy teen I can see the massive appeal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 On 5/24/2024 at 4:27 PM, JimmyB said: This forum is no different. No one has any answers of how to get people back to theaters. I see the same comments here as Reddit. There's no one solution but the theatrical windows needs to be like six months minimum. And they also need to stop charging an arm and a leg for movie tickets and concessions. The monthly subscriptions are a step in the right direction but they could probably make them more appealing or advertise them better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 17 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said: Reddit is the best social media website of all time by a pretty significant margin so that's not a bad thing I was 15 once too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 (edited) Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days? Edited May 26 by HummingLemon496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said: Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days? To be brutally frank, you are not someone who makes a very good case for them 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontofan Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 23 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said: Man, why is Box Office Theory so anti-Reddit these days? I more hate reddit for its political bubbles lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyJPHer Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 Inside Out 2 THURSDAY PREVIEWS - Previous Update: 774 tickets New Update: 787 tickets Growth: 13 tickets (or 1.6% increase) Some growth, not bad but I expect sales to increase steadily as we get closer to release day. I’m of the opinion that this won’t be presale heavy whatsoever. The presales are good enough to not be a disaster like Garfield, but not big enough to guarantee a 100m opening. I still like what I’m seeing though. As my local theater has finally shown some signs of life with this film. 5 tickets sold. Way better than Garfield at the same point. FRIDAY - I think some of these seats are just blocked off so the numbers might not be completely accurate, but it’s looking extremely strong for Friday. 900 tickets for the five theaters I track. Maybe even 1,286 tickets if my numbers are accurate. That tells me this is not front loaded whatsoever. Or at the very least not preview heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...