2024 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Speedorito]

25 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Yeah

 

- People love the first Inside Out, it’s 9 years out putting it in a good time space for a big nostalgia boost

- Pixar nostalgia direct sequels kinda have a perfect track record as of late (Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4)

- The Pixar brand is still very strong theatrically (they launched an original fantasy romcom to global numbers bigger than 6/8 superhero movies last year, one dud with a whole host of unique handicaps is not emblematic of an entire brand’s strength)

- I expect it to at least get very good audience reception with its touching on mental health and anxiety likely resonating big time with audiences and crucially with Gen Z and the 18-24 demographic, a major fueler of recent young skewing breakouts (Mario, The Rise of Gru, Barbie)

- It’s in a wide open June with no other strong 4 quadrant blockbusters, and I expect it to have good legs

- The anticipation and hype is very big, it launched to the biggest 24hr trailer views for a Disney animated film ever 

 

 

So yeah, all those factors combined are why I’m pencilling in a prediction of $135M OW / $540M DOM (4x legs) / $1.175B WW and by a significant margin the biggest movie of 2024

Inside Out is one of my favorite films ever. I won’t get my hopes up (that number seems pretty high for it for multiple reasons) but I’m manifesting this. Elemental being an original film and legging out to 500M, even with everything going against it, gives me a sliver of hope.

 

How do you think Despicable Me 4 coming out three weeks later will affect it? Despicable Me/Minions is a juggernaut franchise.

[Bob Train]

I think Inside Out 2 will do similar numbers to the other nostalgic sequel to a 2015 animated blockbuster. 

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

How do you think Despicable Me 4 coming out three weeks later will affect it? Despicable Me/Minions is a juggernaut franchise.

 

I think they will both co-exist and thrive, just like Inside Out did with Minions. Like those films, IO2 should win domestically but DM4 will win OS. 

[M37]

21 hours ago, Relevation said:

Yeah

 

- People love the first Inside Out, it’s 9 years out putting it in a good time space for a big nostalgia boost

- Pixar nostalgia direct sequels kinda have a perfect track record as of late (Toy Story 3, Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4)

I'm finishing up my list, and Inside Out 2 is a film I'm struggling with in particular

 

One thing I'll quibble with a bit is that 9 years is good spacing for a nostalgia sequel for a family film. With the caveat that grossing potential does not necessarily grow uniformly over a similar range of years:

 

Incredibles 1 --> 2 = 14 years (+133% change in domestic gross)

Toy Story 2 --> 3 = 11 years [also 15 from original] (+69%)

Finding Nemo --> Dory = 13 years (+43%)

Monsters Inc --> University = 12 years (+5%)

Interestingly, Monsters U is the only one that doesn't catch-up with characters later in life (aging up with the audience), but goes back in time (basically a prequel)

 

What makes them nostalgic is that enough time has passed for people who saw it as kids to come back as young adults (and perhaps even with kids of their own), often with their parents who remember the original fondly. As well as having grown a whole new audience of kids/families from home viewing. That's what makes them true 4-quad films with high demand

However:

 

Toy Story 3 -->4 = 9 years (+5% gross)

Cars --> Cars 2 = 6 years (-22% gross)

And not Pixar, but

Wreck It Ralph --> Internet = 6 years (+6% gross)

 

It's difficult to untangle how much of that effect is driven by uneven change in ticket price/audience behavior over the respective periods, the quality of the individual films, and the gap in years (plus competition, etc). But IMO there's something there

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

What makes them nostalgic is that enough time has passed for people who saw it as kids to come back as young adults (and perhaps even with kids of their own), often with their parents who remember the original fondly. As well as having grown a whole new audience of kids/families from home viewing. That's what makes them true 4-quad films with high demand

Well, I do think that you’re right in that 9 years is on the shorter end of what would be ideal for a nostalgia sequel, but I think Inside Out 2 has unique advantages here that potentially shore up what could’ve been lost with more recency

 

- I think the 9 year gap could have a potentially beneficial impact for Inside Out 2 specifically, in the sense that the child audience for the first film was probably in the 5-9 age range, so a 9 year gap and those kids watching the first in theaters are now like 14-18…. right in the range where they’d likely resonate more with the sequel’s focus on mid-teenage anxiety and mental health, therein potentially getting them more inclined to see it and opening up a whole new demographic for IO2 that the first would’ve had a harder time clicking with- teenagers. So the effect of slight recency here in my opinion is a boon for this, as it makes it much easier for the film to click in marketing with nostalgic teenagers and get more people out to the theater.

 

- and the second reason is unique to Inside Out 2 in relation to the first, in that it has Disney+. Now, in most cases the service has not helped any of Disney’s recent output, but in this case I think it could really help it construct a new audience who might not have watched the first in theaters but saw the first on Disney+ and fell in love with it, now excited to see the second in theaters. Almost like a mini Spider-Verse effect, I think this is a case of streaming organically building a new audience of those who love Inside Out, allowing the sequel to reap theatrical benefits that otherwise wouldn’t have been there, and were not there for other Pixar legacy sequels. 
 

Spacing between sequels is a finicky balancing act, but I think 9 years for IO2 is helpful to both establish a large nostalgic legion of teenagers who are uniquely positioned to really resonate with IO2’s messaging, and it has the extra advantage of much more new fans being created by the proliferation of Disney+ in a way that the confluence of those two incoming fanbases alongside all the factors I elaborated on could explode into some mighty impressive box office figures.

[MovieMan89]

I can’t imagine why DM4 wouldn’t have a healthy drop off. The nostalgia card has been fully played for the franchise with Minions 2, there’s no way to play it a second time so soon after. And it’s also pretty unprecedented for a third sequel to not drop off by this point, especially when 3 already did significantly.

 

There’s Toy Story, but Toy Story is Toy Story and has proven normal franchise rules don’t apply to it. 225ish DOM, 175ish if WOM is meh. Idk about OS, those movies are big there but still see a drop from Minions 2.  

[YM!]

Having seen the DM4 leaks it’s very much what you’d expect from a fourth film and that makes me lower my predictions for it. Though a superhero spoof seems interesting enough that I think it’ll at least do the same as DM3.

[DAJK]

Yea I'm not expecting Minions 2 numbers for DM4, but DM3 numbers is totally achievable. What Minions 2 showed is that there is still life in this franchise (heck, it's technically the highest grossing unadjusted domestically). 

 

Thinking 275/900 for it.

[M37]

2024 Predictions

Starting with the caveat that pre-release forecasts are not really my forte, as I rely more on data, and a lot of “buzz” tends to happen outside of my radar [I rely a fair amount on what y’all say on these boards tbh]. But with that said here are my predictions for 2024 releases (domestic only)

$400M+ Chart Toppers

Spoiler

Ummm...

Yeah, I don’t see a single release that I’m confident enough to project to reach that mark. Now of course, would also not have predicted TGM, Mario or Barbie to do so either, so there very well could be [at least] one surprise in store.  But IMO, it plays out more like 2014,

where only 2 releases topped $260M (Sniper was really a 2015 film), a lull at the top of the charts, as the market transitioned from YA series (Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games) to the MCU, Jurassic World, and big action franchises

Also some data for the last two years (2023 / 2022)

• $300M+ Films = 5 / 8
• $200M+ Films = 8 / 8
• $150M+ Films = 17 / 12
• $100M+ Films = 25 / 18

 

$300M Club

Spoiler

Alright here we go:

1. Despicable Me 4 $95 ($150 5-day)/$350 – probably the safest choice for a top level film if not year winner, as 3 of the last 4 films in the DM franchise have pulled in at least $330M. But without a Gentleminions bump, will there be a drop from Rise of Gru?

2. Deadpool 3 – $145/$340 – I know CBMs have struggled of late, and this is the first Disney-helmed take on the character, but the success of DP has always been its anti-hero tone, and I think that still holds even as the heroic comic fascination crumbles like Limbo from Inception

3. Inside Out 2 - $90/$300 – Very torn here, despite some of the chatter I’ve seen, as my gut is telling me this isn’t a $325M+ breakout. Disney continues to face headwinds in the domestic market with their family product, we're a bit early for true nostalgia sequel territory, and its squeezed between Garfield and DM4, the latter arriving on only day 19. The end result is a compromise (aka chickening out) and putting IO2 in the Mermaid Zone (the only film post-pandemic to gross between $225M and $325M), rather than a lower total I’m actually expecting.

I will also predict there will be at least one more film that vaults up into this range, but none that I’m confident enough to call for at present

 

$200M Range

Spoiler

As you (should hopefully) know by now, I'm been citing the lack of mid-class ($225-$325M) films for a while now.  And while I won't be surprised if in a weaker year that one or even a few of these films bump into that gap to fill the overall void in the market, won't explicitly call for it.

More accurately, this is the $175M and over club: films that I think can at least approach $200M, not necessarily that they all will go above that threshold

4. Joker Folie a Duex $100/$215 – think it goes the way of IT Chapter 2 following the massive success of IT; difficult to replicate the social amplifying effect of that moment

5. Beetlejuice 2 $85/$200 – OK fine, I’ll bite on the hype, but this is a high as I’m willing to go (for now) because of the limiting factor of the release date

6. Dune Part II - $80/$190 – A sizeable jump from Part 1, but not on ATSV level. John Wick 4 numbers seem more likely to me than The Batman

7. Mufasa - $45/$180 – Yeah, so … I’m having a difficult time envisioning this brand name – taking into consideration the TLK poor WOM and spin-off nature - opening lower than Wonka, and even with weaker legs, the holidays would help push it to a similar total

 

$150M Performers

Spoiler

Same as above, a soft threshold (more like $135M+), but in the range of $150M

8. Sonic 3 $40/$170 – weak legs on last one has me skeptical its due for another increase, but could be missing the hype on this one

9. Venom 3 $70/$165 – Joker is both grabbing the October release spot, bumping Venom out of spooky season, and IMO taking the wind out of its sails more broadly by opening first. Drops off to around Black Adam level

10. Bad Boys 4 $60/$160 – BB4L was a $200M grosser (even losing some late legs to pandemic) in 2020, but is there the same appetite for one more? Should be a decent popcorn action flick regardless

11. Fall Guy $50/$155 – While definitely think there is potential here, not quite sure where to place this one, but riding a post-Barbie Gosling wave (and weak May) to a pretty solid domestic total at minimum to Free Guy level is where I'm starting

12. Furiosa $55/$150 – Sure? I’m not the person to ask about this one, as part of the 5% who didn’t enjoy Fury Road, but in same ballpark as the original seems fair

13. Quiet Place Day 1 $50/$140 – Even with an anticipated franchise fatigue drop-off, P2 making $160M during semi-pandemic times should leave a solid floor around Nope range

14. Twisters $55/$135 – As much as I’m a fan of the original, really starting to get ID4: Resurgence vibes here, and DP3 swoops in for week 2 to cut off legs, even if WOM is good

Some of you may have noticed a few high profile films absent so far …

 

$100M+ Solid Performers (or Disappointments)

Spoiler

15. Godzilla X Kong $60/$130 – Along with Dune 2 as the only big action flicks of the first 4-5 months (well, maybe a 3^rd😉), could lead to a big opening but perhaps not much beyond that

16. Kung Fu Panda 4 $40/$120 – Franchise grosses have gone $215 --> $165 --> $143, so what am I missing here? Also isn’t much of a mid-tier these for animated films post-pandemic, with only Elemental getting over $120M among the smaller releases (and only by long legs), most clustered around $100M

17. IF $40/$115 – won’t be surprised IF this goes higher, IF it manages to strike the right tone and not come off too campy/childish

18. Ghostbusters Frozen Empire $35/$115 – feels like Afterlife scratched a nostalgia itch more than opened a franchise door, and the frozen theme seems out of place for Spring

19. Gladiator 2 $40/$110 – another sequel essentially in name only, and I fear yet also an historical/action film way overvalued by the demo skew of this community; goes more of the way of Napoleon

20. Madame Web $35 ($55 6-day)/$105 – Yeah, I’ve seen the reactions to the trailer, and that’s the only reason I have it down here and not even higher. The 6-day Valentine’s to Presidents Day opening has a lot of potential for what will be a pretty starved market by then, even if legs collapse after

21. Garfield $30/$100 – a totally fine animated film that gives families and option and doesn’t bother anyone, much like Trolls 3 or Super Pets

22. Imaginary $30/$100 – think this one has potential to be yet another horror hit, has a run similar to M3GAN or maybe even Smile

23. Planet of the Apes $35/$100 – Last offering only managed $148M, down from over $200M, and also get the sense Disney has already given up on this one (not securing PLFs nor moving release date, same behavior we saw with Marvels…). In running for biggest bomb of the year

SUB-$100 (or are they?)

Spoiler

Notable films I won’t project to reach $100M, but something on this list is going to pop and shoot past that threshold

Smile 2 $90M – should open higher than the first, but with weaker legs and finish around the same range

Transformers One $80M – I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one closer to release

Karate Kid $75M – down here almost entirely based on poor release date, but could have some potential

Wicked Part 1 $70M - Hmm, could have sworn so many people lamented that having "part 1" in the title was a death sentence for a release? [In all seriousness, think this is being way overestimated, and Rent where its for fans mostly, less GA, but I could be missing the boat]

Project Artemis [working title] $65M – are we going to see a rom-com resurgence?

Ballerina $65M – sure, I guess?

Argylle $60M – Pre-Super Bowl weekend is almost a cursed release date at this point, and I suspect a lot of disappointment when it opens

Alto Knights $55M - don't think gangster films have the same theatrical appeal as they used to

Alien Romulus $50M – another Fox property Disney seems to be dumping, now in August

Trap $45M – next M. Night offering, little details, but starting with Old range for now

I look forward to the totally rational discourse that will follow

[HummingLemon496]

There is absolutely no way Madame Web does $100M+ domestic if The Marvels couldn't do it

Edited January 6 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

On 12/29/2023 at 3:19 PM, Bob Train said:

-Mean Girls makes 100m+ DOM

 

-Madame Web bombs

 

-Dune 2 puts up Spider-Verse 2 numbers WW, 200m or so DOM

 

-Mickey 17 is a hit, $200m-$300m WW

 

-Frozen Empire makes Afterlife numbers

 

-Fall Guy makes Bullet Train numbers

 

-Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes makes TBOSAS numbers WW, but fails to crack 100m DOM

 

-Inside Out 2 has $130m OW, $400m+ DOM

 

-Bad Boys 4 flops

 

-The Horizon duology are massive hit, both grossing around Sound of Freedom numbers

 

-Deadpool 3 opens huge but collapsed due to WOM

 

-Beetlejuice 2 opens big but collapses due to WOM

 

-Joker 2 claims the yearly crown WW, $1.1b or so

 

-FNAF 2 will release in Q4 2024, makes similar numbers or more to the first

 

-VEN3M makes V2NOM numbers WW, but less from DOM

 

-Mufasa bombs hard, making Aquaman 2 numbers

 

-Sonic 3 grosses 200m+ DOM, 500m WW

 

-LOTR makes Smurfs: Lost Village numbers

Unless the budget goes out of control that will actually be more like a flop than a straight up bomb. December will help it purely by raising the floor, basically like box office life support. Mufasa needs those two weeks of December prime holiday business where people are off of work to avoid becoming a flat out bomb with <$300M WW.

 

 

Edited January 6 by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

I don't know if it's going to affect predictions much but Francis Coppola recently confirmed that Megalopolis is expected to be out sometime this year, and I imagine it'll be a pretty high profile awards contender. I can see it being a massive bomb as much as a big hit of course.

[AniNate]

Re Deadpool 3, I'm as tired of superheroes as anyone but I see it being a pretty solid hit. It has a good hook w Wolverine and the character still has youth appeal. Shawn Levy may not be the greatest filmmaker but he has a pretty good idea at this point what audiences like, and I'm honestly inclined to believe him when he says it'll be as R rated as the prior two were.

[MattW]

Continuing with the month by month predictions I'll say

Jan - $400m

Feb - $350m

Mar - $550m

 

Looking at the year as a whole I think it's an open question if it can match 2022's total. In fact if China does as well this year as it did last year then 2024 could be the year that China passes the Domestic market.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

DP3 feels strangely difficult to pin down because of the uncertainty surrounding the genre at the moment. I have no doubt in my mind it will have a big opening but its total gross feels like something that is gonna boil down to response after that opening weekend. 
 

But the hype is there, So I’ll say for now a $115-125M DOM opening for that.

[AniNate]

Honestly the fall season looks pretty stacked this year, that's the big advantage it appears to have over 2022 and 2023. And I'm sure a lot of currently unknown festival darlings will help to fill in the gaps. Worth repeating that indies were able to continue filming through the SAG strike for the most part.

 

 

Edited January 6 by AniNate

[filmlover]

Considering the holidays alone have helped Aquaman manage to avoid the absolute worst case scenario and hit quite a bit over $100M, I have to imagine The Lion King 2 should have no problem finding a respectable enough crowd in a similar frame, or at least avoid the humiliation of not even coming close to $100M ala Alice Through the Looking Glass and The Marvels.

[MovieMan89]

12 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

There is absolutely no way Madame Web does $100M+ domestic if The Marvels couldn't do it

I am seriously considering Madame Web under Jonah Hex DOM (10m), and I’m fine with someone quoting me here if I’m dead wrong bc I fully believe it’s gonna fail that badly 

[Maggie]

On first sight, the battle for #1 this year is between Deadpool and Joker, but both have issues. Deadpool has to fight the diminishing relevamce of CBMs and Joker is supposedly a musical. Maybe a third contender could emerge, but what?

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am seriously considering Madame Web under Jonah Hex DOM (10m), and I’m fine with someone quoting me here if I’m dead wrong bc I fully believe it’s gonna fail that badly 

 

Spoiler

I’m not on the Madame Web $100M+ DOM train by any stretch but come on lmao

 

$15-20M OW ($27-35M 6-day) / $30-40M DOM / $70-100M WW