Weekend Thread | May 12 - 14 | Weekend Actuals | 62.01M GOTG III | 12.61M MARIO | 6.68M BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER

[ZattMurdock]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s wild you think over 3x could actually happen looking at the summer slate but ok then. Even if it had a barren wasteland for its run, 3.3x for a CBM sequel would be INSANE. No way. 
 

But even if I am totally wrong there, no way nothing does 400 between Spidey, Mermaid, Mission, Barbie, even Indy in a best case scenario. Unless all of them are big turds 

This seems delusional. I don’t see Spidey, Mission or Barbie going for $400m. Possible sure, but incredibly unlikely. I agree that other than Guardians and Mermaid, Indy is the outlier.

[stripe]

Only Indy and Mermaid are viable contenders to Guardians3 for biggest film of the summer.

 

Anyways, it's totally fine if Guardians3 ends winning. I prefer a healthy Summer with 5-6 300M+ (Guardians, Flash, Across SV, Indy, Mermaid, MI7), 3-4 possible 200M (Barbie, Meg2, Elemental, Oppenheimer) and strong potential for FastX, No Hard Feelings, Boogeyman, Roby Gillman, Haunted Mansion and TMNT. Most of them could hit 100M+.

Last year we had Maverick, but only 15 Summer movies grossed more than 30M. This has to change.
 

[stripe]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

It’s wild you think over 3x could actually happen looking at the summer slate but ok then. Even if it had a barren wasteland for its run, 3.3x for a CBM sequel would be INSANE. No way. 
 

But even if I am totally wrong there, no way nothing does 400 between Spidey, Mermaid, Mission, Barbie, even Indy in a best case scenario. Unless all of them are big turds 

 

Not every CBM follows the same pattern.

Unless something very strange occurs, 3x will happen. If a film connects emotionally with GA like Guardians3 is doing, it's time to forget about the conventional CBM boxoffice rules.

I wouldn't be surprised if Guardians3 manages to drop 40% next weekend or even less, despite the loss of PLF to FastX.

[druv10]

Edited May 15, 2023 by druv10

[JohnnyGossamer]

I think people are overlooking Flash a bit. I could see that winning the summer. Keatonman... His power. Otherwise, Little Mermaid, Indy and Spider-Verse have a shot. Barbie will break out but I'm not seeing 350M+ for it and would likely need that to have a shot. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I think people are overlooking Flash a bit. I could see that winning the summer. Keatonman... His power. Otherwise, Little Mermaid, Indy and Spider-Verse have a shot. Barbie will break out but I'm not seeing 350M+ for it and would likely need that to have a shot. 

I think Flash is very reviews and GA based. The CinemaCon reactions are a good start but we have to see how pre-sales are, how the film ends up reviewing, and then the final WOM imo. It's one where if things go right for it, it could be huge but if things go wrong for it...it could go very wrong.

[Jonwo]

I think Universal may have a not so good summer. Fast should be fine but Oppenheimer may end up not doing all that well although I'm sure it'll be good, I'm not sure how it'll do with the mass audience.

 

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think Universal may have a not so good summer. Fast should be fine but Oppenheimer may end up not doing all that well although I'm sure it'll be good, I'm not sure how it'll do with the mass audience.

 

 

I agree. The only reason I might go to see Oppenheimer at the cinema is because of that 100 day window. It's the kind of movie I wouldn't go outside for post-pandemic.

[JohnnyGossamer]

20 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I think Universal may have a not so good summer. Fast should be fine but Oppenheimer may end up not doing all that well although I'm sure it'll be good, I'm not sure how it'll do with the mass audience.

 

What are expectations for Oppenheimer? I'm thinking 125M+ DOM is happening. Nolan generally does well OS so I'll say an additional 225M+ OS. So, give or take, I'm thinking 350M~. I'm actually thinking it goes higher than that but being conversative with it... Wasn't the budget around 100M? If so, should at the very least break even and likely make a profit. I imagine Universal will be happy with that. Fast will likely disappoint but should do well OS. At least they have Super Mario being a box office juggernaut to save their bacon a bit.

Edited May 15, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

What are expectations for Oppenheimer? I'm thinking 125M+ DOM is happening. Nolan generally does well OS so I'll say an additional 225M+ OS. So, give or take, I'm thinking 350M~. I'm actually thinking it goes higher than that but being conversative with it... Wasn't the budget around 100M? If so, should at the very least break even and likely make a profit. I imagine Universal will be happy with that. Transformer they won't be happy with. Fast will likely disappoint too. At least they have Super Mario being a box office juggernaut to save their bacon a bit.

Transformers is Paramount.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Transformers is Paramount.

Whoops. I'll edit my post. So what does Universal have this summer other than Fast and Oppenheimer?

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

What are expectations for Oppenheimer? I'm thinking 125M+ DOM is happening. Nolan generally does well OS so I'll say an additional 225M+ OS. So, give or take, I'm thinking 350M~. I'm actually thinking it goes higher than that but being conversative with it... Wasn't the budget around 100M? If so, should at the very least break even and likely make a profit. I imagine Universal will be happy with that. Transformer they won't be happy with. Fast will likely disappoint too. At least they have Super Mario being a box office juggernaut to save their bacon a bit.

Universal will probably end up losing some money on Oppenheimer given Nolan has a 20% of the gross type deal but I think they'll take the hit if it means Nolan does his next film with them rather than go back to WB.

 

 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Whoops. I'll edit my post. So what does Universal have this summer other than Fast and Oppenheimer?

It's those two, Ruby Gillman (Dreamworks), Last Voyage of The Demeter, and Strays. Feel like Uni won't have an amazing summer but their biggest issue will be Fast X doing just ok at best, I still think Oppenheimer'll make Dunkirk numbers personally and the other 3 should do fine enough.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

It's those two, Ruby Gillman (Dreamworks), Last Voyage of The Demeter, and Strays. Feel like Uni won't have an amazing summer but their biggest issue will be Fast X doing just ok at best, I still think Oppenheimer'll make Dunkirk numbers personally and the other 3 should do fine enough.

Was Ruby's budget low? I expect that to outright flop. I'll have to look into Last Voyage and Strays. Not familiar with either.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Universal will probably end up losing some money on Oppenheimer given Nolan has a 20% of the gross type deal but I think they'll take the hit if it means Nolan does his next film with them rather than go back to WB.

 

 

I actually think even with that deal which is a heck of a sweet deal for Nolan, it'll still at least break even for Universal. I think many are underestimating Oppenheimer a bit. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Was Ruby's budget low? I expect that to outright flop. I'll have to look into Last Voyage and Strays. Not familiar with either.

There's no budget info on it but judging by where they're putting it, it has the vibes of one of the lower budget Dreamworks films.

[ringedmortality]

So Guardians is likely staying the highest grossing CBM of the year right?

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[eXtacy]

17 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Guardians is likely staying the highest grossing CBM of the year right?

 

Good chance of it but its really hard to say.

 

Hard to see either of DC's films Aquaman 2 or Flash making over 800m needed.

Into the Spider-Verse 2 would need to more then double its predecessor.

The Marvels will likely see a huge drop from Captain Marvel. 

 

I mean theres potential for any of these films to do it but they would need strong WOM I feel to get it done.

[grey ghost]

33 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So Guardians is likely staying the highest grossing CBM of the year right?

 

The only realistic challenger is Spider-verse 2. And it will need better legs than GotG3.

 

Difficult but not impossible.