THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I don’t even know how Avatar 2 scenes are because I never even saw it lol. Waiting until it gets into Disney+.

In theater, they were an experience.

 

 

[Kon]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

I've understood American Studios receive 50% from American theatres.

 

It's the biggest share, that's why the domestic market is the most important

 

 

PS: OS-China being 40% is an average. Each country has its own percentage.

 

That said, I've understood there are some benefits in Overseas markets for Studios.

 

For example: I've understood Studios don't pay for the marketing in overseas countries

[WorkingonaName]

18 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I don’t even know how Avatar 2 scenes are because I never even saw it lol. Waiting until it gets into Disney+.

The one person in the world.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

That said, I've understood there are some benefits in Overseas markets for Studios.

 

For example: I've understood Studios don't pay for the marketing in overseas countries

It’s about 55% of domestic, roughly. Can be more on opening weekend of course. 
 

The big studios will pay for their own overseas marketing, the small studios usually sell international distribution to local studios. 

[Brainbug]

The DOM OW is pretty good. However, it would be seen much better by many here i think if this movie would perform similarly to other live action remakes internationally. The fact that it flops hard in most OS countrys and that the budget is so high, means that the DOM performance matters that much more. And from that perspective, opening under 100M for the 3-Day Weekend is - while not bad at all on its own - not ideal.

 

TLM needs really good legs from now on. I do think thats entirely possible since WOM seems very good and June - while packed on paper - doesnt have that one giant movie which will kill its legs (Spider-Verse can coexist with this i think).

 

Btw, why did no one mention The Meg 2 as the biggest movie of the summer? Im an box office expert, i know what im talking about and that movie will gross shark-sized levels of money!

 

Also, Barbie will be a massive hit (at least 250M+ DOM, probably 300M+).

[ZattMurdock]

16 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

The one person in the world.

Lmao. Sure.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The DOM OW is pretty good. However, it would be seen much better by many here i think if this movie would perform similarly to other live action remakes internationally. The fact that it flops hard in most OS countrys and that the budget is so high, means that the DOM performance matters that much more. And from that perspective, opening under 100M for the 3-Day Weekend is - while not bad at all on its own - not ideal.

 

TLM needs really good legs from now on. I do think thats entirely possible since WOM seems very good and June - while packed on paper - doesnt have that one giant movie which will kill its legs (Spider-Verse can coexist with this i think).

 

Btw, why did no one mention The Meg 2 as the biggest movie of the summer? Im an box office expert, i know what im talking about and that movie will gross shark-sized levels of money!

 

Also, Barbie will be a massive hit (at least 250M+ DOM, probably 300M+).

I love it how we all have different opinions. I can see Barbie doing $130-150m total and the Meg 2 opening under $40m. 
 

This seems like one of the most unpredictable summers in years. 

[WorkingonaName]

Meg 2 should be big in china.

[Noctis]

BOM is reporting a $48.3m Friday? 

[Valonqar]

I just want to caution about Verified RT. The number matters less than who votes. If it's many demos (eg. Vol3) than it's a good news. If it's just one demo (eg. Woman King) than it's a bad news. Woman King had unnaturally high Verified of 99% so one had to wonder what was up. And what was up was that only AA women over 25 were voting and practically no one else. No wonder the movie had mediocre dom legs once its core demo was exhausted without attracting other demos, it predictably completely tanked OS, and in the end couldn't recoup 50M budget. TLM should attract several demos but like any franchise, there's OW rush and if the score is fandom-heavier than casual audience than amazing legs aren't assured. But that's the risk any franchise carries.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Valonqar

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, Noctis said:

BOM is reporting a $48.3m Friday? 

Friday? I've understood the Friday $38 million.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Kon said:

Friday? I've understood the Friday $38 million.

Probably $10.3M OS through out FRI

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

UnIronically Avatar has basically created a headache for future Underwater based movies in a way, you either step up in your visual department or you go down.

 

You don't need to match Avatar, but you still need to give a satisfactory experience to audience.

 

No one expect this or Aquaman to match Avatar 2, but they gotta do better. I went into the movie expecting for Sebastian and Flounder to be pure nightmare fuel based on the pics I had seen and they looked fine. The real uncanny valley stuff was the human characters blended in that underwater snapchat filter. Made the movie look way cheaper than it is.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Probably $10.3M OS through out FRI

 

Yeah BOM tends to be wonky like that. rememner when it was shrinking Gucci numbers every week? A movie that didn't gain but lost the more markets it opened in. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Valonqar

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I love it how we all have different opinions. I can see Barbie doing $130-150m total and the Meg 2 opening under $40m. 
 

This seems like one of the most unpredictable summers in years. 

 

To be fair, im joking about Meg 2 ( i just have to support anything that has big teeth in it), i think it will be lucky to even reach 100M DOM. But OS should be very good for it.

 

As for Barbie, i believe it will be a big hit for 2 main reasons: It appeals to many demographics and especially to MANY people who are 30 years old or younger (yes, a lot of men as well) and the casting. Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling were really smart choices for the lead roles and while Barbie on the surface looks like something only for girls/women to enjoy, these girls/women will drag their men along in the cinemas (as a dating movie, this seems perfect) and many men will go voluntarily since Margot Robbie plays Barbie.

 

Barbie is also a case i believe that offers something new on the summer movie plate. Its different from the usual blockbuster fare and it and Oppenheimer (which i think will also be huge) could very well generate one of the biggest weekends of the year.

[KP1025]

$30 million Saturday for TLM according to Deadline.

 

Quote

SUNDAY AM: According to industry estimates, The Little Mermaid pulled in a $30m Saturday, which was the same amount of money Disney’s Aladdin pulled in on its Saturday over Memorial Day weekend; with revised outlook for the Rob Marshall directed musical at $97M-$98M over three days and $121M-$123M over four.

 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Saturday stayed flat in the Uk with a reported 1.7M punds. It won't match Aladdin's 3 day weekend. This is particularly bad if you consider that Aladdin had a 5 day opening, so the previews/first day rush impacted wednesday rather than friday.

 

So far, it's playing way lower than Aladdin in every and each market with the exception of USA (though it looks like I was right and that deadline's prediction was way too high) France and, maybe, Brazil.

 

In Italy it's about 25% down compared to Aladdin, 15% down compared to Maleficent and 10%down compared to Dumbo. Basically DOA.

[Bob Train]

There is more overlap between Spider-Verse and TLM than people like to think

 

Both have black leads so naturally there will be some overlap

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Saturday stayed flat in the Uk with a reported 1.7M punds. It won't match Aladdin's 3 day weekend. This is particularly bad if you consider that Aladdin had a 5 day opening, so the previews/first day rush impacted wednesday rather than friday.

 

So far, it's playing way lower than Aladdin in every and each market with the exception of USA (though it looks like I was right and that deadline's prediction was way too high) France and, maybe, Brazil.

 

In Italy it's about 25% down compared to Aladdin, 15% down compared to Maleficent and 10%down compared to Dumbo. Basically DOA.

Nope, you can't use the UK as an example, movies can't compete with the first really nice weather of the year. It's consistent every year, once the weather improves the box office suffers across northern Europe. 

[Valonqar]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

Nope, you can't use the UK as an example, movies can't compete with the first really nice weather of the year. It's consistent every year, once the weather improves the box office suffers across northern Europe. 

 

I think the point they are making is that if a movie misses the weekend due to nice weather, next weekend is going to have another opener so people may rush to see that instead of catch up with the holdover.