THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Torontofan]

3 minutes ago, Kalo said:

$117m 4-Opening is fine. you people need to chill. sure it didn't make that coveted $100m+ 3-day opening, but there is alot in play for that. it's much more female friendly than most Disney films, it's reviews and WoM, while not awful, is not great either and people seem pretty mixed on weather they like it or not. And how many great Disney live action re-makes have there been? 2 maybe? they are tired of what is being perceived as laziness. I don't think swapping Ariel's race had much impact tbh. and Hailey was great so.

 

Issue it not making much overseas though

[jedijake]

4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

$117m 4-Opening is fine. you people need to chill. sure it didn't make that coveted $100m+ 3-day opening, but there is alot in play for that. it's much more female friendly than most Disney films, it's reviews and WoM, while not awful, is not great either and people seem pretty mixed on weather they like it or not. And how many great Disney live action re-makes have there been? 2 maybe? they are tired of what is being perceived as laziness. I don't think swapping Ariel's race had much impact tbh. and Hailey was great so.

 

WOM not great? It has a solid 95% audience rating. How is that "not great"?

 

As far as creativity, what motivation is there? Anything that any studio does that is "new" fails miserably and has done so since the first Avatar. That's a LONG stretch of time without a successful new IP. Then along comes streaming which is the official home of new IP's.

 

Disney's problem is that they are also not making new IP's for D+. Get some of the creative animated writers to come up with a new live action story or a popular book series (like Keepers of the Lost Cities) for a movie or series on D+. Then, IF it becomes popular (like Stranger Things), use it as a launch pad for a movie event in the theater.

 

Or have an interesting series and have the finale of each season go exclusively to theaters for a while. Then a grand finale for the entire series also in the theaters but perhaps in trilogy form, with a bigger budget. 

 

I'm really shocked that executives haven't utilized the popularity of streaming to fuse their streaming services with major theatrical opportunities. At least Disney is trying to do that to revitalize SW (or so we're told) with Filoni's work. 

Edited May 29, 2023 by jedijake

[Issac Newton]

Disney always have been struggling in Japan since re-opening of theatres. Mermaid is their last hope/try as MCU can't produce numbers like Star War/Jurassic World or even Fast Numbers.

[Kalo]

Just now, jedijake said:

WOM not great? It has a solid 95% audience rating. How is that "not great"?

 

ON Rotten Tomatoes?  that's not an audience score, that's a micro sampling of the real world. and some of the reviews are probably being sifted through right now. also I saw the movie. aside from the two leads the movie as a lot of issues and just isn't as great as it should be. 

[jedijake]

12 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

ON Rotten Tomatoes?  that's not an audience score, that's a micro sampling of the real world. and some of the reviews are probably being sifted through right now. also I saw the movie. aside from the two leads the movie as a lot of issues and just isn't as great as it should be. 

So you're saying that the 95% is fake and most of those verified reviews are fake? And cinemascore is fake? Is that what you are implying?

[Austin]

49 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Miss when this place was a hidden gem. Almost everyone who's a regular here who's great, but all these new people with letter avatars and like under 500 posts (at best).....lol

Me being noobie lurker... 🤪

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Austin said:

Me being noobie lurker... 🤪

You're safe since you have an avatar and don't act obnoxious lol

[ringedmortality]

I have an avatar and act obnoxious

 

[screambaby]

I got 456 posts no avatar but I try to avoid drama.

 

And if we want to talk obnoxious there's nothing more obnoxious then looking in this thread for numbers last night and having to read 6 pages of political bickering...and that's not even counting  things that we're deleted

Edited May 29, 2023 by screambaby

[Ozymandias]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So you're saying that the 95% is fake and most of those verified reviews are fake? And cinemascore is fake? Is that what you are implying?

 

I wouldn't really pay attention to any online ratings for movies/IPs that get mired in the culture wars where there is a lot bots, review bombing, & counter-review inflating.

[Kalo]

17 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So you're saying that the 95% is fake and most of those verified reviews are fake? And cinemascore is fake? Is that what you are implying?

 

I think some of the lower ratings are being taking down to bring it's ratings up yes. they basically already admitted to doing that to anything that could be the target of review bombing. which some of them maybe are. but not all. and I am saying that that is a tiny sample of people who see the movie. most people don't go to rotten tomatoes to rate a film right after seeing it, I don't. Letterboxd is a better place imo. and to a lessor extent IMDB. to see what people actaully think of it that and just asking people what they thought of it in public. 

[TMP]

Speaking of memorial day events, perfect ending for Succession

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

I think some of the lower ratings are being taking down to bring it's ratings up yes. they basically already admitted to doing that to anything that could be the target of review bombing. which some of them maybe are. but not all. and I am saying that that is a tiny sample of people who see the movie. most people don't go to rotten tomatoes to rate a film right after seeing it, I don't. Letterboxd is a better place imo. and to a lessor extent IMDB. to see what people actaully think of it that and just asking people what they thought of it in public. 

Okay, so you're saying it's all one big conspiracy. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

LOLOLOLOL@ all the people arguing about which CEO is better, as if that has anything to do with a money's box office numbers. That's funny stuff.

 

Someone said it best (can't find the post now). The overseas box office is SO low that the reason must be very simple. Just not sure what that simple explanation is. But I highly doubt that Asian markets give a rats ass about Disney or Florida politics.

 

 

Yeah, that's the tricky thing about a pat answer citing Florida conflicts for various Disney films. proof really would implicitly revolve around under-indexing in US (or at least subsections of US) once all factors are taken into account. Has anyone actually set out to test that for previous films like Lightyear/Strange World?

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Cocaine Bear ended up not being another Snakes on a Plane because Cocaine Bear over-performed. 
 

I thought it would be too, but it ended up hitting. 
 

Tracking at one point suggested $35m+ OW for Snakes on a Plane. 

On that point, there was a really interesting interview by thequorum people talking pre-release about how getting people to assume good/bad reviews for Don't Worry Darling swung from amplifying "controversy' word of mouth to a significant box office boost to basically eliminating it as a positive marketing effect.  Seems like something similar would have happened to cocaine-snakes

[harrisonisdead]

9 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

I think some of the lower ratings are being taking down to bring it's ratings up yes. they basically already admitted to doing that to anything that could be the target of review bombing. which some of them maybe are. but not all. and I am saying that that is a tiny sample of people who see the movie. most people don't go to rotten tomatoes to rate a film right after seeing it, I don't. Letterboxd is a better place imo. and to a lessor extent IMDB. to see what people actaully think of it that and just asking people what they thought of it in public. 

The RT audience score is pretty much right in line with the Cinemascore and PostTrak score. And it's funny to say IMDb and Letterboxd are somehow better when neither have any form of verification system and both are still perfectly vulnerable to the same self-selection biases that RT audience scores have. 

 

Regardless, RT audience score has tended to line up pretty closely with the less biased metrics of Cinemascore and PostTrak, so as far as a way to measure general audience reception, it's more useful than IMDb or Letterboxd. You may find your opinions tend to line up more with the latter two, but one person's opinion doesn't say much about the box office.

[Kon]

29 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So you're saying that the 95% is fake and most of those verified reviews are fake? And cinemascore is fake? Is that what you are implying?

I wouldn't call it as fake, but it doesn't seem reliable to use RT Audience Score as a proof of good WOM.

 

It's just a small sample of people.

 

Also, the early reviews are likely people who have a lot of interest in the movie, so the results will tend to be more positive.

[Kon]

4 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

The RT audience score is pretty much right in line with the Cinemascore and PostTrak score. And it's funny to say IMDb and Letterboxd are somehow better when neither have any form of verification system and both are still perfectly vulnerable to the same self-selection biases that RT audience scores have. 

 

Regardless, RT audience score has tended to line up pretty closely with the less biased metrics of Cinemascore and PostTrak, so as far as a way to measure general audience reception, it's more useful than IMDb or Letterboxd. You may find your opinions tend to line up more with the latter two, but one person's opinion doesn't say much about the box office.

 

If the RT Audience Score were so reliable to predict good WOM, we wouldn't have movies with poor legs like Woman King and D&D that have pretty good RT Audience Score.

[PlatnumRoyce]

5 hours ago, Prince Eric said:

 

 

 

Caucasian shares have actually been down across the board post-COVID, to the point where most big movies typically have their shares in the 30% range.

 

Using this year's top 10 biggest openings (which I know, it's still early, blah blah blah)

 

The farther you go back, the harder it is to find race OW demos, but Sonic 1 had 42%, Black Panther had 35%, Ant-Man 2 was 51%, Creed 2 was 38%. I'm sure Beauty and the Beast was 40s, probably even more 50s. There is definitely a huge chunk of Caucasian audiences that just never show up for the movies anymore, which means that any gains from OS from casting a white Ariel, where Disney gets less money from, is offset by a lower DOM total.

I just find this hard to believe/it just doesn't make conceptual sense. When you poll people in general, you get ~57-63% of tickets going to white audiences but posttrak's 2 week average in 2021 pegged it at 45%. Those are just radically different numbers that I just doubt can be conceptually reconciled by non-polled films/week 3+ data. I still use this demo data but I suspect there's some self-ID weirdness/sampling problems messing with data.

you can see both in MPA's "theme reports" (though weirdly not this year as their new cinema foundation produced different reports).

For "2 week posttrak demos" of top 10 films of the year 2013-2021, the raw average % caucasian is 50.2%you ranged from ~65% white (hunger games, 1917) to 

The old pro-POC outlier was Transformers AoE at 38% Caucasian., bested only by black panther pre-pandemic and opposite end was at ~65% (1917 and Hunger Games) 

Edited May 29, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Kalo]

9 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Okay, so you're saying it's all one big conspiracy. 

 

You seem to be taking my opinion a bit too seriously.  why do you feel so defensive about this? it's fine that you like the movie. I liked the movie to an extant. I am soo beyond tired of everyone putting everyone in a box conspiracy theorist  bull shit.  I am not saying that at all, brother, I'm saying it's not universally loved, its WoM is probably not even nearly as good as SUPER MARIO BROS. it is getting fine passable mixed to positive WoM, that is what I am saying, and I believe that it is not positive enough to drawl huge crowds and massive return visits. I honestly don't know why you feel like I am attacking you or something. can people just have a difference of opinion for once?