THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

You could probably do interviews on the street with 100 regular diversified people and I'll bet you 75% of them don't know who Bradley Cooper is. There's a lot of us that go to the movies but not everybody knows who movie stars are. And I agree with you about the Ezra Miller thing. Nobody knows who the hell that guy is LOL

The people who go to the movies are disproportionately the type of people who know who Ezra Miller and Bradley Cooper are though. 

[MovieMan89]

I legitimately keep forgetting Flash is out in a few weeks. That movie needs lots of WOM behind it. 

[jedijake]

Any estimates for TLM's true Friday?

[Bob Train]

55 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Eh, I feel like the domestic skew will be worth it because of that sweet Black Panther money, which Disney will actually get to keep more of than overseas revenue. Just food for thought.

It's doing similar numbers as Aladdin domestically, but with like 1/3 of the international gross that Aladdin made, and on a budget $50m higher. No idea why Disney would be happy with that result. That's a colossal drop-off internationally for the same numbers domestically on a much higher budget.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

That Guardians drop is outstanding

 

It's caught up to GOTG2's dailies which did $20.9/$27.19m

 

May 26, 2017

$5,375,096

+124%

-38%

3,871

$1,389

$318,691,023

22

[ogkalu]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

It's doing similar numbers as Aladdin domestically, but with like 1/3 of the international gross that Aladdin made, and on a budget $50m higher. No idea why Disney would be happy with that result. That's a colossal drop-off internationally for the same numbers domestically on a much higher budget.

It's going to open at least 20m higher than aladdin, probably more domestically. Internationally it's opening about on par in most markets with notable exceptions. at any rate 75-80m is a far cry from being just a third of 120m (what aladdin opened to)

Edited May 26, 2023 by ogkalu

[jedijake]

GOTG3 could end up very well north of $350 m. Could it possibly scratch its way to $400 m?

[grey ghost]

What's everyone's top 3 WDAS soundtracks.

 

1) Aladdin

2) Moana

3) Jungle Book (1967)

 

[Bob Train]

This is gonna be by far the biggest DOM/INT skew for a 100m+ opener ever, right? Probably going to have a 60/40 split or so right out of the gate. I think by the end of the run it will be closer to 58/42. Crazy considering other remakes have been closer to 32/68 splits the other way.

[JohnCarterofEarth]

The WOM seems to be great for Little Mermaid but I don’t know if it’ll have Aladdin type of legs considering from here on out we might have $50M+ openers for like a month straight. 

[Eric Lasagna]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What's everyone's top 3 WDAS soundtracks.

 

1) Aladdin

2) Moana

3) Jungle Book (1967)

 

1. Cinderella

2. The Little Mermaid

3. The Jungle Book

 

A Dream is a Wish Your Heart Makes is my favorite Disney song period, and all the other tunes are supremely underrated, especially Sing Sweet Nightingale and So This is Love. Just an amazing film in general really...now I want to watch Cinderella again lol

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What's everyone's top 3 WDAS soundtracks.

 

1) Aladdin

2) Moana

3) Jungle Book (1967)

 

 

1. Beauty & The Beast
2. Aladdin
3. The Little Mermaid/ Moana (The Crab Duo)

[grey ghost]

47 minutes ago, ogkalu said:

I'm not saying representation can't boost titles.

 

If most of the white audience in the US who were going to see the little mermaid decided not to because of the race swap then the weekend would be nowhere near what it is shaping up to currently. Is the black population in the US sizable ? Sure. Is it big enough to charge this kind of opening if most white people said "No thanks" ? Not even close. 

 

The problem now is that what i've just said about the US, I can't say about a big chunk of international territories(not all). In some territories, the majority of people who would have gone if she were white are not showing up. and you can't really pile this on just over/under indexing either. Why would territories that don't have notable white or black populations under index strongly (compared to white leads) ?

 

What percentage of the US audience is typically white?

 

Minorities make up a significant share. So theorically if certain whites avoided a movie it could still thrive.

[Last Man Standing]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What's everyone's top 3 WDAS soundtracks.

 

1) Aladdin

2) Moana

3) Jungle Book (1967)

 

1) The Lion King

 

2) Hunchback of Notre Dame

 

3) Mulan

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, ogkalu said:

It's going to open at least 20m higher than aladdin, probably more domestically. Internationally it's opening about on par in most markets with notable exceptions. at any rate 75-80m is a far cry from being just a third of 120m (what aladdin opened to)

It's not gonna be as backloaded as Aladdin with all the competition coming up. Aladdin faced KOTM, a men in black movie that underwhelmed, Dark Phoenix that bombed hard, SLOP 2 which massively underperformed the first. Hardly tough competition until TS4 came out. Nothing made more than 450m until that.

 

Meanwhile TLM is facing Spider-Man with great presales domestically and abroad, Transformers & The Flash even if they underwhelm should still make more than MIB or Dark Phoenix.

 

Although the surface-level take would be "Aladdin faced lots of competition and only had PLFs for a week so it was in the same position as TLM" the details show a much different story. Expecting it to be backloaded would be setting expectations too high.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

GOTG3 could end up very well north of $350 m. Could it possibly scratch its way to $400 m?

 

Might be a bit much.

[MovieMan89]

1. TLK

2. Moana/Encanto (too close to call)

3. Mermaid 

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

It's not gonna be as backloaded as Aladdin with all the competition coming up. Aladdin faced KOTM, a men in black movie that underwhelmed, Dark Phoenix that bombed hard, SLOP 2 which massively underperformed the first. Hardly tough competition until TS4 came out. Nothing made more than 450m until that.

 

Meanwhile TLM is facing Spider-Man with great presales domestically and abroad, Transformers & The Flash even if they underwhelm should still make more than MIB or Dark Phoenix.

 

Although the surface-level take would be "Aladdin faced lots of competition and only had PLFs for a week so it was in the same position as TLM" the details show a much different story. Expecting it to be backloaded would be setting expectations too high.

 

Well maybe yes and maybe no. Elementals will be a fraction of what TS4 was. Transformers will be a disaster. So will Indy I fear. So the two biggest will be Spideyverse and Flash. If it can continue to pull in females and families, it will have strong legs. Maybe not a 3.9X multi but it could get a 3.4-3.5 multi.

[Deathlife]

35 minutes ago, baumer said:

You could probably do interviews on the street with 100 regular diversified people and I'll bet you 75% of them don't know who Bradley Cooper is. There's a lot of us that go to the movies but not everybody knows who movie stars are. And I agree with you about the Ezra Miller thing. Nobody knows who the hell that guy is LOL

Exactly.

 

When we watched the Flash trailer, my wife was asking if we're going to see it when it comes out.

 

We watch a ton of movies but she doesn't know anything about Ezra Miller or his misdeeds. I'm using my wife as a barometer because she loves watching geek stuff with me but isn't into it as much as people like us.

 

Heck, most people don't know about the drama around the movie at all. 

Edited May 26, 2023 by Deathlife

[Bob Train]

16 minutes ago, jedijake said:

GOTG3 could end up very well north of $350 m. Could it possibly scratch its way to $400 m?

It could if Spider-Verse wasn't coming out.