THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[baumer]

Maybe this has been discussed before but I'm obviously not here nearly as much as I used to be, but I'm curious as to why Disney chose to open the Little mermaid on Memorial Day weekend as opposed to Indiana jones. The last two Indiana Jones movies were both released at the end of May. I think, at least in my opinion, it would have been a perfect weekend to release Indiana jones.  It just feels like a memorial weekend release.

[Deathlife]

28 minutes ago, ogkalu said:

 

First of all, your numbers are wrong anyway. It's 34% B/ 31% W / 21% L / 15% A/O according to HW

 

2nd it's not about only one demographic showing up. Think about it like this,

for WF, Caucasian turnout was 57% of the average. If all other demographics had those kind of turnouts then that's a much lower opening.

 

The numbers are different because I got mine from Post Trak but I will go back and check what exactly I was quoting. But I do stand by original point because these numbers still support my point but to a lesser degree.

 

I think we are arguing past ourselves a bit. I understand what you're saying, my point is that it can't happen with the larger blockbusters. Obviously if a movie doesn't pull in a diverse crowd, it might not make as much (there are exceptions like Top Gun Maverick and The Batman which had very large white audiences) but broadly speaking the larger movies bring everyone in.

 

Most movies can't open big without a mixture of all ethnicities in the US.

Edited May 27, 2023 by Deathlife

[Bob Train]

44 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

You ever see the demographic breakdown for movies where the white audience is anywhere close to 60%?

 

I'm talking about tent poles. They're typically under 45%.

 

Also I don't think Black Panther was popular with the Fox News crowd. Still made 700m domestic. 

This is true. Even Top Gun 2 was only 53% white.

 

However, I don't know how accurate PostTrak is. I'm curious about their methodology.

[baumer]

By the way, for those keeping track, Hypnotic fell 62% on Thursday LMFAO

[Deathlife]

10 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Top Gun: Maverick, at least on OW. Sometimes they do  opening day demo breakdowns and they're different from the overall weekend. Anyway, here's the report about Maverick's opening last year (Deadline) :

 

 

I think A Man Called Otto was like 70% Caucasian when it went wide, but you'd kind of expect it from a movie like that.

 

The US population skews less white the younger you go, and regular moviegoers tend to be younger people, so the audience percentages won't align to the population in general.

 

Good point.

 

Top Gun Maverick had an unusually white skewing opening. 

 

Besides the excellent word of mouth, that could be due to the nostalgia elements.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

Maybe this has been discussed before but I'm obviously not here nearly as much as I used to be, but I'm curious as to why Disney chose to open the Little mermaid on Memorial Day weekend as opposed to Indiana jones. The last two Indiana Jones movies were both released at the end of May. I think, at least in my opinion, it would have been a perfect weekend to release Indiana jones.  It just feels like a memorial weekend release.

Honestly, that late June slot this year is pretty crappy considering all the comp. My guess is they knew TLM had more box office potential out of the two, and gave it the better date. Right choice imo, especially with the early Indy reviews and since Indy is not some OS juggernaut either. 

Edited May 27, 2023 by MovieMan89

[cahramel]

By the way, I feel like the Snow White movie might flop in LATAM. At least in my country the reactions haven't been good at all to the casting of Zegler.

[Boxx93]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly, that late June slot this year is pretty crappy considering all the comp. My guess is they knew TLM had more box office potential out of the two, and gave it the better date. Right choice imo, especially with the early Indy reviews and since Indy is not some OS juggernaut either. 

 

 

Both The Last Crusaide and Cristal Skull has a 40/60 DOM/OS ratio. That's pretty good for an aging franchise as this. (not a fan of Cristal Skull though)

Edited May 27, 2023 by Boxx93

[baumer]

Well since there's not a lot going on in this thread how about if I just do some random thoughts for you guys. 

 

1) I've always enjoyed Shailene Woodley's work. I think she is a terrific actress and I remember years ago when I first read The fault in our Stars it brought me to tears. And then i saw the movie and it again brought me to tears. I recently watched it again for the first time and probably 5 years and it again brought me to tears LOL it's such an amazing film and if you guys haven't seen it in a while I highly recommend it.

 

2) since we are resetting 1989 let's just remind everybody, even though I know everyone knows this, that in 1989 the opening weekend record was set three times in a matter of 5 weeks. Indiana Jones and the last crusade did it first, then Ghostbusters part 2 did it a few weeks later and then of course Batman came on the scene and obliterated everything in its site.

 

3) a lot of people noticed Allan Ritchson in FX. He was the gigantic CIA operative who flipped Allegiance and then flipped again at the end of the film. For those of you who haven't seen Reacher, the series on Paramount, I would highly suggest you do so. The first season was riveting an absolutely fantastic in my opinion and the second season from what I've been reading is supposed to be even better.

 

4) I WATCHED THIS IS THE END AGAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS AND IT STILL MADE ME LAUGH UNCONTROLLABLY. THERE'S SEVERAL SCENES IN THE FILM THAT ARE SO AUDACIOUS THAT I DON'T KNOW HOW THEY GOT THROUGH FILMING THEM WITHOUT DYING OF LAUGHTER. (Sorry don't know why cops were on in that post).

 

5) I love Sebastian Maniscalco, he's a fantastic stand up comedian and I'm actually really looking forward to seeing about my father. The stand up comedian doesnt always translate well into the big screen but I think this one looks pretty funny.

 

6) even though I'm not here as much anymore I have to say that I love that this place is still going strong. It's definitely changed over the years and it's not the same place it was when I was posting 300 or 400 times a day LOL but a version of baumers summer game is still going strong, you got a thriving community, incredibly knowledgeable posters who can dissect the minutia film with anybody and I love popping in from time to time just to chat with most of you. It's great seeing guys like Lilmac, Grey Ghost, Mike Q and so many of the other older posters, so to speak. And it's fascinating reading some of the newer posters as well. So keep it going and these forums are 20 plus years strong. And I love it.

[M37]

Oh, we're talking demographics? Why didn't someone tag me lol

 

From the 2021 MPAA Theme report (the first year of recovery, so likely skewed somewhat, but still useful). In terms of tickets sold vs population, its pretty close, which only Hispanic/Latino audiences really outperforming population share (as they have been for a while)

 

But its more nuanced than that, in part because a lot of the smaller movies draw an overwhelmingly white audience [for a variety of reasons], and frequent moviegoers, who only account for like 3% of total audience (surely over-represented on these boards) buy a like a third of all of the tickets (subscription services help a lot with that)

 

Better data is the relative rate by age and race

 

 

The way a move makes a lot of money is by drawing in occasional moviegoers, of any age, race, gender or social/political status. That's why big openings rarely breakdown like the top chart, but are usually more evenly spread across the top 3 racial groupings

[baumer]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly, that late June slot this year is pretty crappy considering all the comp. My guess is they knew TLM had more box office potential out of the two, and gave it the better date. Right choice imo, especially with the early Indy reviews and since Indy is not some OS juggernaut either. 

Well I'd have to look at Crystal skull again, but if I'm not mistaken that film did around 60% of its total from an international markets. Indy definitely has a strong international following.

[Bob Train]

https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1662263566165213184?cxt=HHwWgIDQhYH6xZEuAAAA

Edited May 27, 2023 by Bob Train
Stuff

[TwoMisfits]

So, I just had a great week in (North) Myrtle Beach and arrived back home.  So, is I'm reading this right, Little Mermaid is looking at an almost certain $200M+ total DOM (but probably petering out before $300M), and an okay overseas?

 

So, exactly where expected?

 

I noticed Deadline gave no audience demos for previews, so I guess we're waiting for that tomorrow...

[ban1o]

18 minutes ago, cahramel said:

By the way, I feel like the Snow White movie might flop in LATAM. At least in my country the reactions haven't been good at all to the casting of Zegler.

Latin Americans seems to have strong opinion on Disney live action casting choices. 

[ringedmortality]

Maniscalco is one of the best comedians working today. Perhaps the last of his kind, real old school.

 

Also, somehow, stacking a great filmography having bit parts in a Best Picture Winner and a Scorsese.

[grey ghost]

39 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Top Gun: Maverick, at least on OW. Sometimes they do  opening day demo breakdowns and they're different from the overall weekend. Anyway, here's the report about Maverick's opening last year (Deadline) :

 

 

I think A Man Called Otto was like 70% Caucasian when it went wide, but you'd kind of expect it from a movie like that.

 

The US population skews less white the younger you go, and regular moviegoers tend to be younger people, so the audience percentages won't align to the population in general.

 

Yeah everyone knows TGM is the exception because it was megapopular in red counties .

 

It wasn't the typical tent pole. The demographics made it an outlier.

[John Marston]

40 minutes ago, baumer said:

Maybe this has been discussed before but I'm obviously not here nearly as much as I used to be, but I'm curious as to why Disney chose to open the Little mermaid on Memorial Day weekend as opposed to Indiana jones. The last two Indiana Jones movies were both released at the end of May. I think, at least in my opinion, it would have been a perfect weekend to release Indiana jones.  It just feels like a memorial weekend release.

 

who would have been a good idea since it could have taken advantage of not just Memorial Day but Father's Day

[John Marston]

35 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly, that late June slot this year is pretty crappy considering all the comp. My guess is they knew TLM had more box office potential out of the two, and gave it the better date. Right choice imo, especially with the early Indy reviews and since Indy is not some OS juggernaut either. 

 

 

Last Crusade made nearly 300 million overseas in 1989 and made 470m overseas in 2008. 

[jedijake]

13 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1662263566165213184?cxt=HHwWgIDQhYH6xZEuAAAA

Not sure if their numbers match up. I think it's likely that Saturday will be about the same as Thurs+Fri, maybe a bit higher. And Sunday will probably drop no more than 5%.

Thur+Fri=$38 million

Saturday=$38 million

Sunday=$36 million

3-day weekend: $112 million

Monday=$28 million

4-say weekend: $140 million

[grey ghost]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, I just had a great week in (North) Myrtle Beach and arrived back home.  So, is I'm reading this right, Little Mermaid is looking at an almost certain $200M+ total DOM (but probably petering out before $300M), and an okay overseas?

 

So, exactly where expected?

 

I noticed Deadline gave no audience demos for previews, so I guess we're waiting for that tomorrow...

 

Myrtle Beach is awesome.

 

I actually got married there. A beach wedding during sunrise.