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Issac Newton

Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

By Issac Newton, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Gopher,

Maybe this is just me following this stuff for 15 years (christ) but I've never seen the climate both on these boards and in general trade reporting so concerned with using whatever statistics we have access to in proving what's doing "well" or not-- while at the same time, these statistics have never been less transparent to independent observers. The budgets reported for these tentpoles are always lies, all of these movies were mega-inflated by covid shutdowns over the past few years. At the s

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

Posted
Posted

This is the 16th time we've had a weekend with two $50M+ grossers. It does occur the most in June (9 out of 16). 

 

It's interesting to me that we've never seen it happen in July. But maybe that's only surprising to me because I'm Canadian, and schools here don't even get out until July (and go back until September).

 

Weekends with 2 films 50M+

 

80M+

 

June 22-24, 2018

  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 148.0M
  • Incredibles 2 — 80.3M

June 19-21, 2015

  • Jurassic World — 106.6M
  • Inside Out — 90.4M

60M+

 

June 21-23, 2013 (both openers)

  • Monsters University — 82.4M
  • World War Z — 66.4M

Nov 29-December 1, 2013

  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M
  • Frozen — 67.4M

May 28-30, 2004

  • Shrek 2 — 72.2M
  • The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M

December 25-27, 2009

  • Avatar — 75.6M
  • Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M

50M+

 

June 10-12, 2022

  • Jurassic World: Dominion — 145.1M
  • Top Gun: Maverick — 51.9M

May 25-27, 2007

  • Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M
  • Shrek the Third — 53.0M

May 10-12, 2013

  • Iron Man 3 — 72.5M
  • The Great Gatsby — 50.1M

May 10-12, 2019

  • Avengers: Endgame — 63.3M
  • Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 54.4M

June 9-11, 2023

  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts — 60.5M
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 55.4M

June 27-29, 2008 (both openers)

  • Wall-E — 63.1
  • Wanted — 50.9M

June 8-10, 2012 (both openers)

  • Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M
  • Prometheus — 51.1M

June 17-19, 2022

  • Jurassic World: Dominion — 59.2M
  • Lightyear — 50.6M

June 26-28, 2015

  • Jurassic World — 54.5M
  • Inside Out — 52.3M

December 29-31, 2017

  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 52.5M
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle — 50.1M

Peace,

Mike

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, M37 said:

GOTG3 is the 5th highest grossing title out right now, holding well, no reason to pull it. Probably drops only to 6th, ahead of Boogey, for next weekend 

 

I actually disagree.  I think GOTG 3 faces the big drop based on how my theaters set this week.  New supers movie tends to drop old supers movie b/c it is total overlap...and I think given the choice, Disney will protect Mermaid at all costs...

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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JohnnyGossamer Global Phenomenon

JohnnyGossamer

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, M37 said:

ATSV isn’t really drawing families with younger kids, and while the combined competition effect of Flash & Elemental is stronger than just TF, don’t think it’s on the level where you start with -50% for week 3

 

GOTG3 dropped 47% vs Fast X while losing PLFs

Yes. FX opened to 67M. Flash and Elemental will clear 100M+ combined. Which is why instead of 47% drop GotGV3 has I'm thinking more like 50%~ drop for AtSV next weekend.

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Johnny Tran Box Office Gold

Johnny Tran

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

To be fair, they did try but the result has not been good, just look at how the Northman, The last Duel and Moonfall flopped, although you can argue the reception to these movies is also to blame. 

 

This kind of auteur's hit has becoming rare and rarer even before Covid. I would say Nolan,  Spielberg, Peele and James Cameron are the last surviving auteur that can still command sizeable budget and BO for their movies.  

 

You're not wrong in your assessment but Jordan Peele only came onto the scene less than a decade ago, it seems like there was more room for other directors to get their shine.  While I love Dune,  I'd be even more interested in seeing Denis do more mid-tier budget films. 

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interiorgatordecorator Box Office Gold

interiorgatordecorator

Posted
Posted

so transformers only opened in 3.6 k theaters right?

is there any common factor amongst the 500+ theaters it didn't open in?

was any specific group of people barred from seeing the movie because of that? 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yes. FX opened to 67M. Flash and Elemental will clear 100M+ combined. Which is why instead of 47% drop GotGV3 has I'm thinking more like 50%~ drop for AtSV next weekend.

Difference is the PLF pull, which ATSV already (mostly) had, while GOTG3 lost them that week. That a ~5% reduction all on its own 

 

So maybe start with -45% rather than -40%, but still think it should clear $30M, not mid to high $20s

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

To be fair, they did try but the result has not been good, just look at how the Northman, The last Duel and Moonfall flopped, although you can argue the reception to these movies is also to blame. 

 

 

And Knock at the cabin 

 

 

 

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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

This is the 16th time we've had a weekend with two $50M+ grossers. It does occur the most in June (9 out of 16). 

 

It's interesting to me that we've never seen it happen in July. But maybe that's only surprising to me because I'm Canadian, and schools here don't even get out until July (and go back until September).

 

Weekends with 2 films 50M+

 

80M+

 

June 22-24, 2018

  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — 148.0M
  • Incredibles 2 — 80.3M

June 19-21, 2015

  • Jurassic World — 106.6M
  • Inside Out — 90.4M

60M+

 

June 21-23, 2013 (both openers)

  • Monsters University — 82.4M
  • World War Z — 66.4M

Nov 29-December 1, 2013

  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M
  • Frozen — 67.4M

May 28-30, 2004

  • Shrek 2 — 72.2M
  • The Day After Tomorrow — 68.7M

December 25-27, 2009

  • Avatar — 75.6M
  • Sherlock Holmes — 62.3M

50M+

 

June 10-12, 2022

  • Jurassic World: Dominion — 145.1M
  • Top Gun: Maverick — 51.9M

May 25-27, 2007

  • Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End — 114.7M
  • Shrek the Third — 53.0M

May 10-12, 2013

  • Iron Man 3 — 72.5M
  • The Great Gatsby — 50.1M

May 10-12, 2019

  • Avengers: Endgame — 63.3M
  • Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 54.4M

June 9-11, 2023

  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts — 60.5M
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse — 55.4M

June 27-29, 2008 (both openers)

  • Wall-E — 63.1
  • Wanted — 50.9M

June 8-10, 2012 (both openers)

  • Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted — 60.3M
  • Prometheus — 51.1M

June 17-19, 2022

  • Jurassic World: Dominion — 59.2M
  • Lightyear — 50.6M

June 26-28, 2015

  • Jurassic World — 54.5M
  • Inside Out — 52.3M

December 29-31, 2017

  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi — 52.5M
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle — 50.1M

Peace,

Mike

Hopefully it will happen again with Oppenheimer+Barbie 

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ringedmortality Box Office Gold

ringedmortality

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

To be fair, they did try but the result has not been good, just look at how the Northman, The last Duel and Moonfall flopped, although you can argue the reception to these movies is also to blame. 

 

James Grey said that studios are gonna be losing money on these types of movies but in the long run it'll be better since it can force back the audience.

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harrisonisdead Indie Sensation

harrisonisdead

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

And Knock at the cabin 

 

 

 

Knock at the Cabin cost like $20M. I don't think studios will have any reservations giving auteur-types that kind of budget going forward. Especially for horror, it's not especially a risk.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Nov 29-December 1, 2013

  • The Hunger Games: Catching Fire — 74.2M
  • Frozen — 67.4M

You should have seen the look on my teenagers’ faces last night when I told them Frozen came out 10 years ago 😱

Edited by M37
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Austin Sleeper Hit

Austin

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

China is next to worthless for any US film that isn't Fast or Avatar at this point. Get used to it.

Mission Impossible? Monsterverse? Transformers? CBMs?

Edited by Austin
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Kon Box Office Gold

Kon

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

THE LITTLE MERMAID might miss 600M worldwide.

 

Do you think TLM has locked 550 M worldwide?

 

It lacks a goos amount for that number, but the legs seem to be pretty decent.

 

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