Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Damn that must be some killer WOM for Elemental.

It's a good movie, but I think Mario proved that you don't need to be Citizen Kane to get great holds when you're the only animated feature available to the family demographic. Theatres won't drop this until at least TMNT in early August so the holds should be stellar until then. 

[AniNate]

Just now, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It's a good movie, but I think Mario proved that you don't need to be Citizen Kane to get great holds when you're the only animated feature available to the family demographic. Theatres won't drop this until at least TMNT in early August so the holds should be stellar until then. 

 

I don't think it should be discounted that it is facing competition from Spiderverse and Ruby Gillman, which are both now dropping a lot faster than Elemental is. Quite ironic though that now the narrative is a lack of competition when it was an "overcrowded June" for so long.

[Eric is Quiet]

23 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

I love Pixar to death but outside of their teasers (which are generally very good, including Elemental's) their trailers do tend to be very hit or miss. They are aiming at kids with the trailers, tbf, so it's likely that I'm just not the target audience, but they have had a history of hiding a lot more then most other studios in an attempt to appeal to a wider audiences. Coco's trailers did the same.

This is true for every animated movie's marketing. They almost always emphasize the groaner gags and awkwardly edit them to be as annoying as possible and avoid the actual emotion and pathos and heart the best of these movies have. Which I mean...it clearly works a lot of the time, but animated movies are always something that's an "I'll wait for reviews" before I judge prematurely. The Spider-Verse trailers are the only times I saw advertising for an animated movie that got me legit excited.

[harry713]

I wonder how many days above 1m the #ElementalSweep can achieve.  

 

[TwoMisfits]

Neither of my Cinemarks have even set schedules for tomorrow yet (outside of what they had set as presales)...this is gonna be an interesting week for holdover choosing...

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

I don't think it should be discounted that it is facing competition from Spiderverse and Ruby Gillman, which are both now dropping a lot faster than Elemental is. Quite ironic though that now the narrative is a lack of competition when it was an "overcrowded June" for so long.

IMO Spiderverse skews a bit older to the tweens and up crowd so has to compete with all the PG13 movies but you're right that Ruby Gillman proved that WOM is still important, even if that movie dropped over the xmas holidays by itself it would still be a bomb.

[harry713]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

It's a good movie, but I think Mario proved that you don't need to be Citizen Kane to get great holds when you're the only animated feature available to the family demographic. Theatres won't drop this until at least TMNT in early August so the holds should be stellar until then. 

Once the dust settles I don't think SMB's 3.9x multiplier is going to be all that comparable to Elemental's 5.5-6x.

[SchumacherFTW]

31 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Insidious The Red Door up to $33m with actuals, nice. 
 

Insidious 5 had the biggest horror opening of all time in the Philippines. They had to add extra midnight screenings to meet the demand (from the OS thread). 

My second home country loves being a quirky place 😅 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

1 minute ago, harry713 said:

Once the dust settles I don't think SMB's 3.9x multiplier is going to be all that comparable to Elemental's 5.5-6x.

If you look at the raw multiplier, sure, but a 3.92x multiplier after opening to $146m is one of the highest ever for a $100m+ opener, I think only Avatar 2, TGM and Wonder Woman have done better. 

 

I'm not trying to discredit Elemental's legs here, just making an observation that we've seen twice already in the last year that a lack of competition on the kids animated front can be extremely helpful to your shelf life. Puss 2 did 15x over the winter because it had like 4 months to itself until Mario came along lol. 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

One argument against ELEMENTAL I never understood was its trailers.

 

There hasn't been a single Pixar film that had amazing trailers. Some even had downright terrible trailers. And I've been a Pixar diehard since 1995.

The Pixar brand alone isn’t enough anymore. They need to up their trailer game. 

[baumer]

21 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Neither of my Cinemarks have even set schedules for tomorrow yet (outside of what they had set as presales)...this is gonna be an interesting week for holdover choosing...

 That definitely seems kind of odd.

[harry713]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

If you look at the raw multiplier, sure, but a 3.92x multiplier after opening to $146m is one of the highest ever for a $100m+ opener, I think only Avatar 2, TGM and Wonder Woman have done better. 

 

I'm not trying to discredit Elemental's legs here, just making an observation that we've seen twice already in the last year that a lack of competition on the kids animated front can be extremely helpful to your shelf life. Puss 2 did 15x over the winter because it had like 4 months to itself until Mario came along lol. 

I agree about the marketplace being open. I guess what I mean't is SMB exploded out the gate with crazy demand and then was carried to a nice multi with great legs due to lack of competition. Elemental was DOA and is now carrying itself to a respectable total thanks to WOM and lack of competition. So while they both have some of the summer seasons best legs, they came about them in different ways. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by harry713

[baumer]

@TwoMisfits are you and your hubby doing date night tonight and seeing SOF

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

@TwoMisfits are you and your hubby doing date night tonight and seeing SOF

 

Hoping to - he's still working, so it's gonna be tight timewise, but I'm optimistic!

[baumer]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Hoping to - he's still working, so it's gonna be tight timewise, but I'm optimistic!

 

Thoughts and prayers 🙏🍀

[MightyDargon]

SMB didn't get what it got because of "lack of competition". What actually happened was a substantial teen/adult audience got cannibalized from other movies by it.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

So, a double SAG-AFTRA/WGA strike seems likely.

 

What's gonna happen with MI:7,Barbie, and Oppenheimer?

[harry713]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

SMB didn't get what it got because of "lack of competition". What actually happened was a substantial teen/adult audience got cannibalized from other movies by it.

Of course SMB didn't succeed because of lack of competition. It exploded out the gate with incredible demand. It was already a success after its first week.

However, it was able to achieve a near 4x multi after such a high opening thanks in part to it being the only option for certain crowds for an entire month. When competition did hit in May it saw its first steep dip.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

So, a double SAG-AFTRA/WGA strike seems likely.

 

What's gonna happen with MI:7,Barbie, and Oppenheimer?

MI won't be affected as it will be playing in most of the world by the time the strike begins.

 

Everything else is fucked.

[LegionWrex]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

So, a double SAG-AFTRA/WGA strike seems likely.

 

What's gonna happen with MI:7,Barbie, and Oppenheimer?

Not much outside of a lack of promotion from the actors. Those movies are probably safe. I'd be more concerned for films from August onward as they will suffer for lack of promotion/red carpet stuff across the board if it continues. Also films will be delayed 100%, there is a reason why studios are trying to get some of their films for next year done as quickly as possible.

Edited July 10, 2023 by LegionWrex