C’MON BARBIE LET'S GO PARTY...AT LOS ALAMOS | BARBENHEIMER WEEKEND THREAD | We’re Thriving in our Plastic Fantastic Era | Mother Mothered with 162M | Daddy Exploded with 82.4M

[excel1]

6 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Now for Nolan to Tenet Hartnett back to 2003 so he can take the Superman role.

 

Pretty clear from this movie that...if he lost a few pounds and got some chisel back to his face...he could, without question, still play Superman. Hartnett was a KID when he blew up in the early 2000s. I think he wasn't even 21 when Pearl Harbor was being filmed.

 

6 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Normally I'd remind everyone - myself included - how Batman Begins - while a certified blockbuster at $205M - was a slow but steady commercial burn that left people starving for a sequel.

 

But general audiences are now quite adept at the concept of reboots. Hence The Batman grosses a pretty-damn-great $370M coming off two very divise and commercially-rejected films headlined by "Batfleck."

 

Superman: Legacy needs to be good, plain and simple. Warner Bros are still the best in the business when it comes to marketing. If Gunn gives them a commercially-viable four-quad Superman movie that people have been wanting for years, they'll work their magic.

 

Time will tell. But me... I think this is the moment.

Batman Begins legs were in the "very good" bucket, but hardly in the "OMG!" great bucket. In summer of 2005 alone, Charlie and Chocolate Factory, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and course Wedding Crashers had better legs than Batman Begins did. No doubt they don't even compare to Pirates 1 legs (which had nearly identical opening weekend and 5 day gross)  which opens 2 years earlier.

 

As for Superman: Legacy, funny enough, I think Superman Returns being this retro, action-less film and Man of Steel being this soulless, emo Superman has created a true thirst for basic, traditional Superman. Rare case where people do not want reinvention, they want back to the basics. Gunn is one of the absolute best directors for this property as well, so that will drive hype. But no doubt, at the end of the day the quality has to unquestionably be there.  

 

6 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Yeah people don’t say Christian Bale is box office poison yet Robbie’s last 10 years has been better than his

 

Bale's box office pull is often overstated. He can open the right concept on his own, and is a thrilling choice for something like a villain role, but he's never been Tom Cruise. His Terminator film being DOA just 1 year after TDK was telling.

 

6 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

I wonder what might have been if Singer had decided to dive into the Superman Returns sequel instead of doing Valkyrie. WB weren't sure they went to make it but if Singer was willing to push forward instead of taking on Valkyrie, it would have been made due to a lack of other options. Superman Returns, while not liked as widely as Batman Begins, didn't start being completely disliked till it didn't get a sequel. At that moment, it began to be viewed as a failure. If there was a sequel, and it was good, with the rumored Brainiac and killing off the irritating kid plot, maybe it could have gone on for a good trilogy.

 

WB botched release date screwed this film just about has hard as release botching screwed MAN OF STEEL.

 

Superman Returns was just a take on Superman the nobody wanted. Routh 100% hard the potential to be an iconic Superman and does well what he is given, but the retro, gloomy look, and fight-free script were just a disaster. Throw in a terrible release strategy? In 2006, WB threw Poseidon in the 2nd weekend of May - 1 week after MI3, 1 week before Da Vinci code, and 2 weeks before X3 on Memorial Day. Opening it 1 week before Pirates 2, and during the World Cup, just DESTROYED its box office legs everywhere. WB wouldn't start their run of mid-July blow ups until the following year in 2007. But had they released SUPERMAN RETURNS on July 21st or July 26th (Wednesday, these were popular back then), they probably get a domestic total closer to $250m and global around $500m, and a sequel comes into 2009 like clockwork. 

 

Of course...what WB REALLY should have done is left JJ Abrams direct the 2nd draft of his FLYBY script and tell Josh Hartnett they'll bankroll every indie film he can imagine for the next the years in return for a Superman trilogy.

 

Abrams SUPERMAN was Independence Day meeting Superman and would have been released Christmas 2004. Starring Josh Hartnett as Superman along with those they actually signed - Robert Downey Jr as Luthor , Anthony Hopkins as Jo-el, ScarJo as Lois Lane, and Shia LaBuff as Jimmy Olsen, that would be a GIGANTIC box office hit. Hell, Hartnett might well still be playing Superman to this day!

[MovieMan89]

If you go back to shortly before release, we had most predictions here in the 750-1b (yes 1b) DOM range for TLK bc people knew it was touching 200 OW and know how a movie like TLK is supposed to work. They didn’t factor in the toxic WOM (like I anticipated for months). 

[TMP]

44 minutes ago, 21C said:

I really am convinced that the success of Super Mario Bros invalidates whatever "auteur directors are important for blockbusters" takes you could get from Barbie. Autership might be important in some situations like maybe CBMs (and even then only until very recently) but for unexploited mega-popular IP is really is a stretch to think it is. 

So if Wonka's a hit it's purely because of IP and NOT because of the Paddington guy? So they might as well get Jon Watts/Muschietti types for everything? lol

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think you touched upon something that I've been trying to put into words probably a month now. To me End Game was the end of an era. It started in 2008 and then of course ended with endgame. Over the course of that time we invested ourselves in the MCU and the box office is the proof in the pudding. We invested our time, our energy and of course our money. It doesn't matter if some of the movies in the MCU in my opinion aren't that great. Most of them are and what Infinity wars and endgame did is something I don't think we're ever going to see again. Every MCU character was represented at least one of those two movies.

 

And then Disney and Marvel tell us wait, there's more and I don't think a lot of us have the energy to reinvest ourselves into new characters new stories and so on.

 

Obviously it was never going to happen where they just leave it alone after end game but in my opinion there was no better way to end the Marvel cinematic universe. I haven't been interested in any of the new Marvel movies and I haven't even been interested in any DCU movies.

 

We all gave the MCU and Disney 12 years of our lives. We invest in ourselves in dozens of characters that we all loved and seeing some of them die kind of just felt like that was the finality of it.

 

Now they want us to reinvest ourselves in new characters a new stories like I said and for me personally I just don't have it in me. I don't think the MCU is ever going to reach the heights that it did between 2008 and 2019. 

 

It kind of feels like as if you run the Boston marathon, you give it everything you have, you get over the finish line you're drenched and sweat your legs are exhausted your lungs are begging for air and yet when you finish it you feel a sense of accomplishment and a finale to the whole thing.

 

Then youre told that in a week's time you got to start a new 26 mile marathon. I just don't think you'd have it in you to give it your all this time.

 

I hope this doesn't come across as just one big giant incoherent ramble. I know what I'm trying to say and I just hope you get the gist of it.

 

What if felt and feel exactly.

 

Pre-Endgame, the MCU felt fresh, exciting and it was always building up to something (IW/EG).

 

After Endgame, the MCU feels tired, overstuffed and like homework.

 

Endgame was literally the perfect ending for the whole MCU in my opinion.

[Nate]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ok, but where does that address how I’m saying 3x should have been worst case scenario for a movie with the level of family/everyone appeal of TLK in the summer? 

I don’t agree with 3x multi being a worst-case scenario, especially when you open to almost 200 million on opening weekend. But that’s fine, we don’t have to agree. 
 

I just don’t think any studio is seeing 3x multi off 191 million as a “worst case scenario”, even for a 4-quad family movie in summer. Now Lightyear on the other hand… that’s what I’d call “horrific” 😬
 

 

[MovieMan89]

TLK was very easily our most over predicted DOM film I’ve ever seen here. So many predictions falling short by 250+m. 

[Jonwo]

As funny as Dunka would be, there's no chance WB will want to compete with itself for screens plus how would Timmy do press for both films assuming the strikes are resolved by then?

[ringedmortality]

Is the general consensus not that Dune is moving?

[Valonqar]

49 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I think (and hope, because she is a very good director and writer, really creative) Gerwig might get a huge boost in recognition after Barbie. I think this film will resonate big time with her target audience and give her pull. Sort of a Peele-Get Out/Nolan-TDK situation. Not that she wasn't successful before regardless albeit to a different scale.

 

I don't think she was a big draw for this film but I think she can very well be one after barbie. I hope she can get out of Narnia bs. The first book is good but she is wasted on the project.

 

Gerwig is more comparable to Nolan than Peele because of Barbie's tremendous OS boxoffice. Something that Peele simply doesn't have nor needs if he keeps the budget in check. he's a domestic wonder. He isn't global unlike Nolan. Gerwig will be. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

As funny as Dunka would be, there's no chance WB will want to compete with itself for screens plus how would Timmy do press for both films assuming the strikes are resolved by then?

 

WB literally scheduled Wonka and Color Purple a week apart. And we are talking about the same genre (musical) not counterprogramming. Dunka would be a better combo but I think that Dune II should stay in Noevember and take advantage of 2 holidays. 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLK was very easily our most over predicted DOM film I’ve ever seen here. So many predictions falling short by 250+m. 

 

I can only assume you're talking about the lion king?

[MovieMan89]

I was kidding when I brought it up, but  actually, Dunka probably is the best chance around to get a lightning strike twice Barbenheimer effect lol. The problem is the strike makes it impossible to orchestrate the marketing like they’d need to. Chalamet would definitely need to be involved to maximize the meme/TikTok potential. 

[redfirebird2008]

44 minutes ago, Nate said:

These could be a fun few movies to track Barbie against. Gives a good min/max final range of 380-580. Pretty unrealistic that it hits the top or bottom of that range, but at least it’s a good comparison point. And tbh, right in the middle of that range at 480 does feel pretty solid as a guess right now. That’s essentially a 3x multiplier, assuming actuals come up slightly.

 

 

The dark knight: late July release, almost identical opening weekend, strong legs (3.34)

 

The dark knight rises: late July release, almost identical opening weekend, average-decent legs (2.8)

 

The lion king: late July release, +30ish opening, average-decent legs (2.84)

 

Deathly hallows part 2: late July release, +10 opening, weak legs (2.24)

Mario: 2023 champ, comparing more for fun/ to establish the upper bounds. Non-summer release, very strong legs (3.94)

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Barbie-(2023)/Dark-Knight-The/Dark-Knight-Rises-The/Harry-Potter-and-the-Deathly-Hallows-Part-II/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)/Lion-King-The-(Live-Action)-(2019)#tab=week_comparison

 

 

It will be hard to compare the daily numbers with Super Mario because of the release date difference. Mario's weekdays are deflated, while its weekends are probably inflated compared to any Late July release such as Barbie.

 

The other 4 movies are great comparison points, all of them released in Late July. So we have the low end with heavy frontloading in Deathly Hallows Part 2, and we have the higher end with stronger legs such as TDK. More likely scenario is probably in between, so maybe it will look more similar to TDKR or Lion King. 

[MovieMan89]

Dunka would be even better if WB shifts Aquabro to 2024 amidst the strike and all the endless reshoots of it… 

[WorkingonaName]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLK was very easily our most over predicted DOM film I’ve ever seen here. So many predictions falling short by 250+m. 

The one time America has had good taste.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, WorkingonaName said:

The one time America has had good taste.

Again, people expected it to behave like a massive 4 quad film with respectable WOM, not trash WOM.

[Valonqar]

@Nate

 

These could be a fun few movies to track Barbie against. Gives a good min/max final range of 380-580. Pretty unrealistic that it hits the top or bottom of that range, but at least it’s a good comparison point. And tbh, right in the middle of that range at 480 does feel pretty solid as a guess right now. That’s essentially a 3x multiplier, assuming actuals come up slightly.

 

 

The dark knight: late July release, almost identical opening weekend, strong legs (3.34)

 

The dark knight rises: late July release, almost identical opening weekend, average-decent legs (2.8)

 

The lion king: late July release, +30ish opening, average-decent legs (2.84)

 

Deathly hallows part 2: late July release, +10 opening, weak legs (2.24)

 

I would void TDKR because that had a very unique situation where Aurora shooting hurt the boxoffice at least initially. So it didn't behave how it was supposed to behave.

 

the other 3 are good comparisons though HP boxoffice (380M) is too low. There's no sign that Barbie will collapse below 400M minimum. 

[TMP]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Again, people expected it to behave like a massive 4 quad film with respectable WOM, not trash WOM.

Maybe they shouldn't have made a trash movie then lol

[Robertron]

You know the box office was good when non-box office people are talking about it. 
 

My boyfriend - someone who knows literally nothing about box office - just text me saying “Barbie has already made $155m!!!!”.

 

Then I told him that was just US/Canada and he replied “oh god”.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Robertron said:

You know the box office was good when non-box office people are talking about it. 
 

My boyfriend - someone who knows literally nothing about box office - just text me saying “Barbie has already made $155m!!!!”.

 

Then I told him that was just US/Canada and he replied “oh god”.

I can so see this where a ton of casuals who saw Barbie will think 150m+ OW is unheard of. You should blow his mind by telling him it’s 200m+ from the record lol.