The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Bob Train]

57 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Orlando isn't Miami

Maybe not, but it’s still 10% more Hispanic than US average.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/5/2023 at 8:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-3	Jax	2	2	4	12	841	1.43%
	T-4	Jax	5	7	13	114	960	11.88%
		Phx	1	1	12	78	208	37.50%
		Ral	1	1	6	38	261	14.56%
	Total		7	9	31	230	1,429	16.10%
Last Voyage	T-5	Jax	5	12	6	27	1,387	1.95%
		Phx	6	17	7	24	1,699	1.41%
		Ral	6	15	0	17	1,361	1.25%
	Total		17	44	13	68	4,447	1.53%

 

Last Voyage T-5 comps

 - Black Phone - .433x (1.13m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .489x (709k)

 - Northman - missed

 - Green Knight - 1.259x (944k)

 - Talk to Me - .919x (1.14m)

 - Beast - 1.172x (1.08m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.02m

 

Staying pretty steady around 1m.

 

GT EA sales are looking solid.  It might help that if people don't see it now they have to wait a couple weeks

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	0	12	841	1.43%
	T-3	Jax	5	7	12	126	960	13.13%
		Phx	1	1	4	82	208	39.42%
		Ral	1	1	3	41	261	15.71%
	Total		7	9	19	249	1,429	17.42%
Last Voyage	T-4	Jax	5	12	7	34	1,387	2.45%
		Phx	6	17	10	34	1,699	2.00%
		Ral	6	15	4	21	1,361	1.54%
	Total		17	44	21	89	4,447	2.00%

 

Last Voyage T-4 comps

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - .614x (890k)

 - Northman - missed

 - Green Knight - 1.259x (1.04m)

 - Talk to Me - 1.023x (1.27m)

 - Beast - 1.391x (1.29m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.09m

[M37]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

its just a suggestion. Feel free to ignore it. Its just that you can extrapolate the end number from pace rather than total. 

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

My question was around how many tickets those movies sold on that day you checked. Opening day sales for those movies would be way higher as they target bigger group for various reasons. Indy/Fast are sequels to popular franchises and Flash was more than just a flash movie. But the trending will be better seen with actual pace seen on T-12 and where it ended up and relative pace for this movie. 

 

Example is your T-12 update for Indy. It just sold 65 tickets. So Blue Beetle is actually trending better. 

Flash T-12 also sold just 90 tickets. Fast X T-12 sold just 36 tickets. 

Always happy to welcome more people onto the pace (growth rate) bandwagon, but ... would not recommend using pace from day 4 of presales to directly extrapolate vs comps much later in their presale window. The sales volume and especially growth rate are going to be inflated, not having had time to bank all of those early buys and hit the bottom of the u-curve (particularly for this market sample, which is a little presale heavy in general)

 

What really matters for comp values is the pace from T-7 to T-0, and it's not necessarily true that a higher pace on T-12 - again on just day 4 of presales - is going to be predictive of maintaining that higher pace down the home stretch. The current comp values are likely too low, but I wouldn't be confident in saying "trending towards 4m+ previews for sure" either; more that $3M+ is more likely than not, but just need more data

 

@TheFlatLannister - would recommend adding Transformers ROTB to your comp set for Blue Beetle though, as the shorter sales window could create a similar higher pace finish by nature of compressed time frame. That should be at least in mid-$3M range right now, and can then see how those high and low end comps move towards each other in coming days

Edited August 6, 2023 by M37

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/5/2023 at 8:38 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-12	Jax	5	42	5	47	6,627	0.71%
		Phx	6	43	5	49	8,909	0.55%
		Ral	6	19	4	47	3,260	1.44%
	Total		17	104	14	143	18,796	0.76%
Strays	T-12	Jax	6	15	0	14	1,897	0.74%
		Phx	6	23	2	17	3,053	0.56%
		Ral	6	18	0	22	2,703	0.81%
	Total		18	56	2	53	7,653	0.69%
Strays (EA)	T-11	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	0	1	403	0.25%
		Ral	4	4	1	3	506	0.59%
	Total		10	10	1	7	1,261	0.56%

 

Strays (Total) T-12 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.33x (1.67m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.224x (1.35m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - .462x (923k)

 - Violent Night - 1.176x (1.29m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .11x (607k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.19m

 

Blue Beetle T-12 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.1x (2.2m)

 - Bullet Train - .769x (2.58m)

 - Turtles - .656x (2.53m)

 - Suicide Squad - .511x (2.09m)

 - Shazam 2 - .335x (1.14m)

 - Morbius - .259x (1.47m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.59m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-11	Jax	5	42	6	53	6,627	0.80%
		Phx	6	43	9	58	8,909	0.65%
		Ral	6	19	9	56	3,260	1.72%
	Total		17	104	24	167	18,796	0.89%
Strays	T-11	Jax	6	15	1	15	1,897	0.79%
		Phx	6	23	0	17	3,053	0.56%
		Ral	6	18	-2	20	2,703	0.74%
	Total		18	56	-1	52	7,653	0.68%
Strays (EA)	T-10	Jax	3	3	0	3	352	0.85%
		Phx	3	3	0	1	403	0.25%
		Ral	4	4	0	3	506	0.59%
	Total		10	10	0	7	1,261	0.56%

 

Strays (Total) T-11 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.27x (1.13m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.204x (1.32m)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Violent Night - 1.054x (1.16m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .106x (584k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.08m

 

Blue Beetle T-11 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Bullet Train - .788x (2.64m)

 - Turtles - .756x (2.91m)

 - Suicide Squad - .568x (2.33m)

 - Shazam 2 - .373x (1.27m)

 - Flash - .141x (1.37m)

 - Morbius - .291x (1.66m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.86m

 

Still getting its footing.  Without an initial rush, it's gonna be all about keeping steady growth for the next week.  I don't think I'd say 4m yet, but it's definitely possible.

[TheFlatLannister]

14 hours ago, DisposedData said:

Orlando isn't Miami

I also track Kissimmee which has a big Hispanic population (estimated 69%) 

[vafrow]

On 8/5/2023 at 6:17 AM, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-13, southern Ontario

 

I noticed my local theatre started to perk up on sales, so I did another sweep of the region. Ticket sales went from 75 to 142 in the last two days. It gives it a lot more hope than my initial impressions. I think it's taken a few days for people to realize that it was available for sale.

 

At my local theater (Milton, ON), it's at 6 tickets sold, which is

0.375x Flash for $3.6M

0.545x T:ROTB for $4.8M

 

 

 

Blue Beetle, T-12, southern Ontario

 

Quick update. Checked over lunch, and southern Ontario radius is at 163, so a 15% bump from yesterday morning.

 

This is a long weekend around here where most people go out of town, or attend the Caribana festival in downtown Toronto. It's a weekend where I wouldn't expect people to be buying tickets for next week, so, 15% growth is pretty impressive.

 

There's still lots of empty showings, but the continued growth is very encouraging. But , to put it into context, with this film getting into context of other trackers, with this film getting a lot of larger auditoriums and PLF screens, with those 163 tickets across the 129 showtimes, it's at about 0.5% capacity.

[divesyn]

2 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-12, southern Ontario

 

Quick update. Checked over lunch, and southern Ontario radius is at 163, so a 15% bump from yesterday morning.

 

This is a long weekend around here where most people go out of town, or attend the Caribana festival in downtown Toronto. It's a weekend where I wouldn't expect people to be buying tickets for next week, so, 15% growth is pretty impressive.

 

There's still lots of empty showings, but the continued growth is very encouraging. But , to put it into context, with this film getting into context of other trackers, with this film getting a lot of larger auditoriums and PLF screens, with those 163 tickets across the 129 showtimes, it's at about 0.5% capacity.

Have any comps?

[TwoMisfits]

17 hours ago, TMP said:

Beetle opening to $30m would be a Barbie level breakout for me lol, which is why i’m still kind of doubting previews that high

 

Shazam 2 did open to that number.

 

With the likely Hispanic heavy audience, getting to a Shazam 2 open seems possible and reasonable (as I say this without checking any presale data yet)...

 

Edit to Add: And somehow this post made me a Global Phenomenon on this board (and I have no idea what that is:), but maybe it's an omen!

Edited August 6, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, divesyn said:

Have any comps?

 

Nothing too relevant. I only started checking the broader radius for a few films that were underperforming so badly, I wanted to check the whole area.

 

I did so Haunted Mansion, with the closest date being T-11, which had sales of 53 for this radius.

 

On the T-13 post, I do have comps for my local theatre against Flash and Transformers.

[TheFlatLannister]

I would like to point out Blue beetle will probably overindex by a bit in any urban samples. Rural areas may see below avg attendance. Hopefully a tracker can look into the urban-rural sales volume 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would like to point out Blue beetle will probably overindex by a bit in any urban samples. Rural areas may see below avg attendance. Hopefully a tracker can look into the urban-rural sales volume 

You mean it might not do well in those parts of the country.You don't say. 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I would like to point out Blue beetle will probably overindex by a bit in any urban samples. Rural areas may see below avg attendance. Hopefully a tracker can look into the urban-rural sales volume 

For a small opener urban BO is almost most of it. That in itself should not matter. That is why I am expecting MTC1 to over index as it did for Shazam and Flash earlier this year. 

 

Only thing is Latino crowd is normally more walkup friendly. If I am not wrong they did show up for Black Adam whose OW did go up relative to projections at similar point. 

 

Anyway

Blue Beetle MTC1 Previews (T -12) - 15234/456862 269691.74 2180 shows

 

Data is as of yesterday night. Its actually ahead of Shazam here. Let us see how it does next week. I am not sure if reactions/reviews will be out early. They should also do limited fan events in big markets say next weekend to increase awareness but I am not hearing anything and so its not happening. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	347	24786	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.225x) of Oppenheimer 

~$2.36M THUR Previews 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	356	24786	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.221x) of Oppenheimer 

~$2.32M THUR Previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	635	26422	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.260x) of The Flash

~$2.53M THUR Previews 

 

(0.308x) of Indy 5

~$2.22M THUR Previews

 

(0.434x) of Fast X

~$3.25M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.67M previews 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
150	850	26422	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

215

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(0.337x) of The Flash

~$3.27M THUR Previews 

 

(0.404x) of Indy 5

~$2.90M THUR Previews

 

(0.570x) of Fast X

~$4.28M THUR Previews

 

(0.580x) of RoTB (New comp courtesy of @M37) 

~$5.10M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.89M previews 

 

This was a very great day 

 

BB pace vs Flash $4.93m

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

For a small opener urban BO is almost most of it. That in itself should not matter. That is why I am expecting MTC1 to over index as it did for Shazam and Flash earlier this year. 

 

Only thing is Latino crowd is normally more walkup friendly. If I am not wrong they did show up for Black Adam whose OW did go up relative to projections at similar point. 

 

Anyway

Blue Beetle MTC1 Previews (T -12) - 15234/456862 269691.74 2180 shows

 

Data is as of yesterday night. Its actually ahead of Shazam here. Let us see how it does next week. I am not sure if reactions/reviews will be out early. They should also do limited fan events in big markets say next weekend to increase awareness but I am not hearing anything and so its not happening. 

 

There's a fan event in downtown Toronto on August 10th with the director. I'm not sure if they're rolling that out in other markets.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Back with some numbers.

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	34	60	60	3137	1.91

 

Comps:

0.79x Talk to Me: $982k

0.35x Insidious Red Door: $1.74 Million

1.21x Beast:$1.12 Million

 

Average: $1.28 Million

 

Blue Beetle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	48	125	125	9225	1.36

 

Don't really have any good comps for this, since it's the first CBM I'm tracking. I'll have a singular TMNT comp at T-7 I guess. Mostly interested in growth rate and keeping the numbers for the future.

 

Strays (T-11):

Day: T-11,T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	41	22	22	4180	0.53
Wednesday EA: 12 theaters	12	9	9	1280	0.7
TOTALS:	53	31	31	5460	0.57

 

Comp (Total):

0.66x Joy Ride w/ EA: $725k

 

[keysersoze123]

I am wondering if @Shawn tracking will also go up from initial numbers for Blue Beetle? Its is in uber bomb territory for now. 

[Cmasterclay]

I am in Miami area and Blue Beetle is getting heavy marketing directly at Latinos down here. That's the ticket - it should only acknowledge being a DC movie to talk about it being a historic movie and nothing else. If it pivots completely away from DC film to Latino action blockbuster, it has a shot at 30m OW tbh.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Back on the Strip T-11: 20.91% Awareness

Golda T-18: 15.22% Awareness

The Equalizer 3 T-25: 48.03% Awareness

Expend4bles T-46: 31.97% Awareness

Next Goal Wins T-102: 9.41% Awareness

The Book of Clarence T-158: 13.74% Awareness

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-4: 29.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

 

Blue Beetle T-11: 36.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-32: 35.09% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-39: 19.29% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Sequel Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

[dallas]

12 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

Quorum Updates

Back on the Strip T-11: 20.91% Awareness

Golda T-18: 15.22% Awareness

The Equalizer 3 T-25: 48.03% Awareness

Expend4bles T-46: 31.97% Awareness

Next Goal Wins T-102: 9.41% Awareness

The Book of Clarence T-158: 13.74% Awareness

 

The Last Voyage of the Demeter T-4: 29.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

 

Blue Beetle T-11: 36.06% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-32: 35.09% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-39: 19.29% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Sequel Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Not to be cynical or anything but didn't The Quorum also put Barbie at like a $60M opening based off of "awareness"? I don't think they're a very reliable source when it comes to tracking one's box office.