The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXR & Friends]

10 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

What IM to do guys think Blue Beetle will have (opening weekend divided by Thursday previews)?

6-7

[DAJK]

The Toopy and Binoo movie has presold more than Blue Beetle at 3 of the major locations I track. And it's not even close.

[kayumanggi]

 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/10/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
8/18/2023	Back on the Strip						Luminosity Entertainment
8/18/2023	Blue Beetle	$20,000,000 – $27,000,000	+50%		$45,000,000 – $87,000,000	+50%	Warner Bros. Pictures
8/18/2023	The Hill						Briarcliff Entertainment
8/18/2023	Strays	$14,000,000 – $21,000,000	-29%		$35,500,000 – $59,600,000	-29%	Universal Pictures
8/25/2023	Golda						Fathom Events
8/25/2023	Gran Turismo (Sneaks on 8/11 and 8/18 weekends)	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000			$40,000,000 – $61,000,000		Sony Pictures
8/25/2023	The Hill						Briarcliff Entertainment
8/25/2023	Retribution						Roadside Attractions
9/1/2023	The Equalizer 3	$25,000,000 – $32,000,000			$65,000,000 – $88,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
9/8/2023	My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000			$24,000,000 – $43,000,000		Focus Features
9/8/2023	The Nun 2	$30,000,000 – $45,000,000			$70,000,000 – $97,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3 and THE NUN 2 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[el sid]

The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 59 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 129 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 258.

Up modest 19% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday and in 7 theaters; in 7 theaters the Demeter would have up to 300 sold tickets): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 164 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 218,
Barbarian (850k) had 289
Renfield (900k) had 315 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters (and 393 in 7 theaters),
The Boogeyman (1.1M) had 173 sold tickets
and The Pope's Exorcist (850k) had 257 sold tickets. In guess the Demeter will have a little bit better walk-ups.

A pretty big range: 750k-1.5M+. But most of the comps had better jumps than the Demeter. So I say 1M from previews.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 59 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 191 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 290. Not frontloaded.

Up modest to mediocre 25% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday; with the exception of The Night House always counted in 7 theaters → with 7 theaters the Demeter would have up to 350 sold tickets today): Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 264 sold tickets (a bit similar behavior – it jumped only 17% and 27% till Thursday but wasn't frontloaded),
The Invitation (6.8M) had 204,
Barbarian (10.5M) had 249,

Old (16.9M) had 500,
The Night House (2.9M) had 90 in 6 theaters (the AMC in Texas was missing),
Renfield (8M) had 285 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters (and 357 in 7 theaters)
and The Boogeyman (12.4M) had 193 sold tickets.

From Friday presales it looks good for 10M OW but the jumps since Tuesday were not the best. It's pretty much on par with Renfield in the same 6 theaters which also had mediocre reviews and a R-Rating. I could imagine that the Demeter has the better walk-ups but I'm biased because I'm interested in this film. By the way, in Germany it has not many reviews so far but those are pretty good (6-8/10).
It could very well happen that the preview number is disappointing but the Friday sales are (way) better. So I say 9M OW and hope for 10M.

Edited August 10, 2023 by el sid

[richyboycaldo]

43 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 59 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 129 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 258.

Up modest 19% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday and in 7 theaters; in 7 theaters the Demeter would have up to 300 sold tickets): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 164 sold tickets,
The Invitation (775k) had 218,
Barbarian (850k) had 289
Renfield (900k) had 315 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters (and 393 in 7 theaters),
The Boogeyman (1.1M) had 173 sold tickets
and The Pope's Exorcist (850k) had 257 sold tickets. In guess the Demeter will have a little bit better walk-ups.

A pretty big range: 750k-1.5M+. But most of the comps had better jumps than the Demeter. So I say 1M from previews.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 59 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 191 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 290. Not frontloaded.

Up modest to mediocre 25% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday; with the exception of The Night House always counted in 7 theaters → with 7 theaters the Demeter would have up to 350 sold tickets today): Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 264 sold tickets (a bit similar behavior – it jumped only 17% and 27% till Thursday but wasn't frontloaded),
The Invitation (6.8M) had 204,
Barbarian (10.5M) had 249,

Old (16.9M) had 500,
The Night House (2.9M) had 90 in 6 theaters (the AMC in Texas was missing),
Renfield (8M) had 285 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters (and 357 in 7 theaters)
and The Boogeyman (12.4M) had 193 sold tickets.

From Friday presales it looks good for 10M OW but the jumps since Tuesday were not the best. It's pretty much on par with Renfield in the same 6 theaters which also had mediocre reviews and a R-Rating. I could imagine that the Demeter has the better walk-ups but I'm biased because I'm interested in this film. By the way, in Germany it has not many reviews so far but those are pretty good (6-8/10).
It could very well happen that the preview number is disappointing but the Friday sales are (way) better. So I say 9M OW and hope for 10M.

You said you are biased for this movie, so it is safe to say that your 9M OW prediction translates to a safe and unbiased 8M OW?

[Eric S'ennui]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

The Toopy and Binoo movie has presold more than Blue Beetle at 3 of the major locations I track. And it's not even close.

You just made those names up lmao. What even is that?

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, Eric the Turtle said:

You just made those names up lmao. What even is that?

 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-3):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	49	35	138	4361	3.16

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	33.98
3-Day:	130

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.77x Talk to Me: $960k (145%)

0.33x Insidious Red Door: $1.65 Million (152%)

0.84x Beast: $780k (135%)

1.28x The Invitation: $993k (N/A)

0.91x Barbarian: $773k (N/A)

 

Lost ground against every comp, and its 3-day growth rate is unimpressive, definitely under a million. I'll be able to pull T-1 hour numbers tomorrow, so I'll put in my final prediction then.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	49	74	212	4361	4.86

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	53.62
3-Day:	207.25

 

Comps (1 and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $878k (1-day: 189%, 3-day: 520%)

 

I only have a T-1 hour comp for Insidious unfortunately, but a 53% last day growth rate is not good for horror. I'm gonna put in my prediction at $800k, +/-50k.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Last Voyage 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	425	24836	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.253x) of Talk to me

~$1.56M THUR Previews

 

(1.054x) of Boogeyman

~$1.16M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.36M

 

Still decreasing against comps...Looks like $1M-$1.5M previews 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Last Voyage 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update 5:00pm

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	474	24836	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:30PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.748x) of Talk to me

~$932k THUR Previews

 

(1.028x) of Boogeyman

~$1.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.03M

 

Incredibly soft finish for a horror film. 

 

I'll go with $900k-$1.05M previews 

Edited August 10, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/9/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	935	28836	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.332x) of The Flash

~$3.22M THUR Previews 

 

(0.405x) of Indy 5

~$2.92M THUR Previews

 

(0.549x) of Fast X

~$4.11M THUR Previews

 

(0.584x) of RoTB 

~$5.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.85M previews 

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Blue Beetle

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
164	953	28836	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.324x) of The Flash

~$3.14M THUR Previews 

 

(0.399x) of Indy 5

~$2.87M THUR Previews

 

(0.536x) of Fast X

~$4.02M THUR Previews

 

(0.560x) of RoTB 

~$5.13M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.79M previews 

 

Trending downwards and RoTB comp will continue to fall because it had strong late growth. 

Edited August 11, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/9/2023 at 6:19 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	376	24786	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.230x) of Haunted Mansion

~$713k THUR Previews

Orlando-Melbourne-Gainesville greater region 

 

Strays 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
138	386	24786	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.226x) of Haunted Mansion

~$699k THUR Previews

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/6/2023 at 6:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Back with some numbers.

 

Last Voyage of the Demeter (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	34	60	60	3137	1.91

 

Comps:

0.79x Talk to Me: $982k

0.35x Insidious Red Door: $1.74 Million

1.21x Beast:$1.12 Million

 

Average: $1.28 Million

 

Blue Beetle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	48	125	125	9225	1.36

 

Don't really have any good comps for this, since it's the first CBM I'm tracking. I'll have a singular TMNT comp at T-7 I guess. Mostly interested in growth rate and keeping the numbers for the future.

 

Strays (T-11):

Day: T-11,T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	41	22	22	4180	0.53
Wednesday EA: 12 theaters	12	9	9	1280	0.7
TOTALS:	53	31	31	5460	0.57

 

Comp (Total):

0.66x Joy Ride w/ EA: $725k

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Blue Beetle (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	56	66	191	10782	1.77

 

Comp:

0.88x Turtles (Just Tuesday): $3.4 Million

 

Strays (T-7):

Day: T-7,T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	42	6	28	4290	0.65
Wednesday EA: 13 theaters	13	13	22	1359	1.62
TOTALS:	55	19	50	5649	0.89

 

Comp (Total):

0.68x Joy Ride w/ EA: $753k

[misterpepp]

Retribution goes on sale this Monday

[romeross]

4 hours ago, el sid said:

So I say 9M OW and hope for 10M.

I hope on 10M. Thanx

Edited August 11, 2023 by romeross

[vafrow]

7 hours ago, DAJK said:

The Toopy and Binoo movie has presold more than Blue Beetle at 3 of the major locations I track. And it's not even close.

 

For reference, Toopy and Binoo are playing in 35 theatres in my southern Ontario radius this Friday. That compares to 48 theatres playing Blue Beetle the following week for previews.

 

I have 283 tickets sold for opening Friday right now. That compares to 338 tickets sold at T-1 for Thursday previews of Haunted Mansion across the same radius.

 

So yeah, pretty good showing for a Toopy and Binoo movie, that will likely do better on the weekend.

[misterpepp]

Equalizer 3 on sale this Tuesday

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews (T-8) - 19343/462275 340879.45 2208 shows 

Friday - 11791/620668 200515.81 2898 shows

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews (T-7) - 20556/463484 361310.50 2224 shows

Friday - 12535/621484 213340.07 2906 shows

 

Still the pace is just bleh. Let us see if social media reactions tomorrow have any effect.