The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	594	31768	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

75

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.200x) of Fast X

~$1.50M THUR Previews

 

(0.259x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.81M THUR Previews

 

(0.391x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.29M THUR Previews

 

(0.891x) of Meg 2

~$2.85M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.87M

 

Comps pointing to $1.8M Thursdays previews + whatever it made during EA. Going with $1.5M-$2M for now. 

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	790	31768	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

196

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.205x) of Fast X

~$1.54M THUR Previews

 

(0.174x) of RoTB

~$1.53M THUR Previews

 

(0.414x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.37M THUR Previews

 

(0.734x) of Meg 2

~$2.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.70M

 

Officially going with $1.7M Thursdays previews. My range would be $1.5M-$1.7M 

[Tinalera]

Equalizer 3

THurs Aug 31 Fri Sept 1

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

			#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	21	10	5796	5806	0.0017
	Fri	4	15	12	5595	5607	0.0021
	1		6
Montreal		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	2	13	19	3765	3784	0.0050
	Fri	2	11	22	2932	2954	0.0074

[el sid]

I was late today so I decided to count only the Friday. My preview guess judging from my Wednesday numbers is that it stays a bit under 1.5M. So pretty much in line with other reports here.
 

Gran Turismo counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 96 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 52 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 70 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 47 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 301.

Up decent 48% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Uncharted (44M OW) had 1.180 sold tickets,
BT (30M) had 1.250 sold tickets,
Creed III (58.4M) had 1.652 sold tickets
and Ford v Ferrari (8.8M true Friday/31.5M OW) had 1.125 sold tickets.

 

The jump till today was good but overall the number of sold tickets is just small. It seems to do a bit worse in my theaters than in others but my prediction is 15M OW. Maybe I underestimate the walk-ups.

[TwoMisfits]

22 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Variety looks so pessimistic...for everyone not just GT. Wonder why they expect so little for the Cinema Day?

 

I think it's b/c the deal just isn't as good, nor as well timed.  A Saturday of Labor Day weekend for $3 with $3 medium popcorn and sodas (and ICees) just moves the needle much more than a Sunday of a non-holiday weekend in the midst of back to school madness at $4 a ticket and only a $1 off snack items.

 

At least, this is Cinemark.  And for Cinemark, that only saves the average family of 4 buying 2 medium popcorn and 1 medium soda $7 total over cheap Tuesday...

 

Last year - family total above was $21

This year - family total above is $16 for tickets and $15 for concessions (medium pop is $6.75 reg and medium soda is $4.75 reg) for $31.25 or $10.25 more on a worse day (and a 50% jump from last year).

 

It's still very low, but cheap Tuesday would only be another $7 for $38.25...so, it's not the same big deal as last year, unless you're watching PLFs...and few want Gran Turismo in PLF...

[VanillaSkies]

DUNE 2 officially moves to March 2024;

 

https://deadline.com/2023/08/dune-2-delayed-march-2024-warner-bros-movies-1235527300/

Likely lots more shifts coming. Going to be a wild 6 months coming up.

Edited August 24, 2023 by VanillaSkies

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	400	30629	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.318x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.22M THUR Previews

 

(0.235x) of Fast X

~$1.76M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.99M

 

No increase in comps today 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	411	30629	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.268x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$1.88M THUR Previews

 

(0.231x) of Fast X

~$1.74M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.81M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
126	105	22395	0.47%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.488x) of Strays

~$402k THUR Previews

 

(0.275x) of TMNT

~$1.06M THUR Previews

 

(0.205x) of Blue Beetle

~$678k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $713k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	131	22768	0.58%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.577x) of Strays

~$476k THUR Previews

 

(0.322x) of TMNT

~$1.24M THUR Previews

 

(0.248x) of Blue Beetle

~$819k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $845k

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

DUNE 2 officially moves to March 2024;

 

https://deadline.com/2023/08/dune-2-delayed-march-2024-warner-bros-movies-1235527300/

Likely lots more shifts coming. Going to be a wild 6 months coming up.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

11 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Golda	T-0	Jax	3	9	4	33	435	7.59%
		Phx	2	5	5	10	275	3.64%
		Ral	4	12	9	22	930	2.37%
	Total		9	26	18	65	1,640	3.96%
Gran Turismo	T-0	Jax	5	54	16	95	8,586	1.11%
		Phx	6	45	15	100	8,230	1.22%
		Ral	8	30	21	117	4,305	2.72%
	Total		19	129	52	312	21,121	1.48%
Jurassic 3D	T-0	Jax	5	14	9	33	1,133	2.91%
		Phx	4	9	-1	30	1,154	2.60%
	Total		10	24	8	63	2,287	2.75%
Retribution	T-0	Jax	5	10	5	15	704	2.13%
		Phx	5	11	4	9	838	1.07%
		Ral	7	14	8	20	1,072	1.87%
	Total		17	35	17	44	2,614	1.68%
The Hill	T-0	Jax	4	8	0	11	508	2.17%
		Phx	3	7	0	2	495	0.40%
		Ral	5	10	5	12	770	1.56%
	Total		12	25	5	25	1,773	1.41%

 

GT T-0 comps

 - F9 - .102x (725k)

 - MI:7 - .138x (882k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .312x (904k)

 - Turtles - .274x (1.06m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .457x (1.24m)

 - Lost City - .455x (1.14m)

 - Free Guy - .545x (1.2m)

 - Meg 2 - .463x (1.48m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.55m

Growth model forecast - 927k

 

GT pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Gran Turismo	95.00%	35.00%	81.73%	20.00%
F9: The Fast Saga	111.12%	28.04%	17.08%	40.17%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Haunted Mansion	101.41%	33.00%	22.22%	33.82%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Jungle Cruise	185.36%	28.03%	29.07%	47.62%
Lost City	151.28%	25.64%	12.81%	42.03%
Free Guy	87.87%	33.44%	51.23%	41.83%
Meg 2	202.24%	52.91%		47.16%

 

Very bad day.  There's really no good reason to pay full price for this movie when you can get the discount on Sunday.   I'm thinking under 1m but rounded up so it doesn't look awful.  Or they could just report 4m and not mention the EA... that will grab the headlines...

 

Golda (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Respect (Thu) - .433x (Only have combined preview $)

 - Downton (Thu) - .109x (114k)

These two comps were really EA heavy as well so this is a likely outcome.

 - House of Gucci - .143x (186k)

 - Fabelmans - .823x (328k)

 - Spencer - .903x

 - Mrs. Harris - 1.102x

 

Growth model forecast - 233k (excluding Wednesday)

 

The Hill T-0 comps

 - The Outfit - .735x

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .521x

 - She Said - .641x (103k)

 - Stillwater - .373x (104k)

 

Retribution T-0 comps

 - Blacklight - .815x (183k)

 - Copshop - 1.375x (172k)

 - Memory - 1.222x

 - The Protege - .629x

 

Actually had a good day respectively.  Growth model has 211k

 

Jurassic Park T-0 comps

 - Titanic - .25x

 - Return of the King - .048x (56k)

 - ET - .851x

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Golda	1-Hr	Jax	3	9	6	39	435	8.97%
		Phx	2	5	1	11	275	4.00%
		Ral	4	12	7	29	930	3.12%
	Total		9	26	14	79	1,640	4.82%
Gran Turismo	1-Hr	Jax	5	54	49	144	8,586	1.68%
		Phx	6	45	18	118	8,230	1.43%
		Ral	8	30	68	185	4,305	4.30%
	Total		19	129	135	447	21,121	2.12%
Jurassic 3D	1-Hr	Jax	5	14	20	53	1,133	4.68%
		Phx	4	9	0	30	1,154	2.60%
	Total		10	24	20	83	2,287	3.63%
The Hill	1-Hr	Jax	4	8	1	12	508	2.36%
		Phx	3	7	0	2	495	0.40%
		Ral	5	10	3	15	770	1.95%
	Total		12	25	4	29	1,773	1.64%

 

GT T-1 hr comps

 - F9 - .117x (837k)

 - MI:7 - .142x (906k)

 - Haunted Mansion - .319x (925k)

 - Turtles - .285x (1.1m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .406x (1.1m)

 - Lost City - .446x (1.11m)

 - Free Guy - .514x (1.13m)

 - Meg 2 - .387x (1.24m)

All action - 868k

All PG-13 - 925k

All 2pm - 962k

All movies - 957k

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.34m

Growth model forecast - 902k

 

So these numbers are pretty spread out, but there's a pretty big convergence on the 1.1m number so I'm planting my flag there.

 

Golda (Thu) T-1 hr comps

 - Respect (Thu) - .325x (Only have combined preview $)

 - Downton (Thu) - .111x (117k)

These two comps were really EA heavy as well so this is a likely outcome.

 - House of Gucci - .118x (153k)

 - Fabelmans - missed

 - Spencer - missed

 - Mrs. Harris - 1.179x

All dramas - 145k

All movies - 169k

 

Growth model forecast - 185k (excluding Wednesday)

 

If it wasn't for EA, I wouldn't expect a number.  Since those shows did well we'll probably get a 400k or something.

 

The Hill T-1 hr comps

 - The Outfit - .509x

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - missed

 - She Said - .426x (68k)

 - Stillwater - .216x (61k)

 

Not getting anything for this

 

Jurassic Park T-1 hr comps

 - Titanic - .305x

 - Return of the King - missed

 - ET - 1.025x

 

I missed grabbing Retribution unfortunately.  Glad to drop these from tracking...

[misterpepp]

Haunting in Venice on sale this Monday, Aug 28. There will be an early access showing on Sep 13.

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

DUNE 2 officially moves to March 2024;

 

https://deadline.com/2023/08/dune-2-delayed-march-2024-warner-bros-movies-1235527300/

Likely lots more shifts coming. Going to be a wild 6 months coming up.

 

You know it's barren when Amazon got a weekly deal to release their premiering tv shows this fall and Prime members can get free tickets - whoopee!

[vafrow]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You know it's barren when Amazon got a weekly deal to release their premiering tv shows this fall and Prime members can get free tickets - whoopee!

 

Speaking of Amazon, I've wondered if Red One will get a theatrical release as other films move off. Filming was finished ages ago, and, getting it in theatres for 2-3 weeks and then still get it on Prime before Christmas seems like a solid move. 

[DAJK]

Not sure why Gran Turismo seems to be over performing here (tracking 5 different theaters and they all seem to be showing the same thing) but if it weren’t for everyone else’s data in this chat, I’d be confidently predicting 2M+ Thursday, if not 2.5.

[JD Asencio]

On 8/17/2023 at 6:10 PM, datpepper said:

Additional re-expansions/re-releases coming for the weekend of National Cinema Day (Aug 25-27):

 

-Asteroid City, Dungeons & Dragons, Super Mario Bros., and Transformers: RotB will all be returning/re-expanding (will vary by location)

 

-The Little Mermaid '23 returns with a Sing-Along version

What happened with D&D and TF7: ROTB, won't they return this weekend? is that The Numbers I think did not put them in the theater count

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Speaking of Amazon, I've wondered if Red One will get a theatrical release as other films move off. Filming was finished ages ago, and, getting it in theatres for 2-3 weeks and then still get it on Prime before Christmas seems like a solid move. 

 

Of the movies already getting a release (with free tickets), Sitting in Bars with Cake is Sept 6 (and on Prime Sept 8), A Million Miles away is Sept 13 (and on Prime Sept 15), and the Burial is Oct 11 (and on Prime Oct 13).  They also have a 2 part tv episode release of Gen V on Sept 27 (and on Prime Sept 29).

 

Amazon has done one-off free showings for their new movies and series here and there over the last 2 years, but nothing planned like this in a back-to-back-to-back way...

[misterpepp]

From what I've heard:

The Nun 2 on sale Aug 30
Paw Patrol 2 on sale Sep 7
Expendables 4 on sale Sep 13
Saw X on sale Sep 20

My source says some of these are tentative, this is what he says is set for now.

Edited August 25, 2023 by datpepper

[misterpepp]

31 minutes ago, JD Asencio said:

What happened with D&D and TF7: ROTB, won't they return this weekend? is that The Numbers I think did not put them in the theater count

 

D&D is back in at least 16 markets in the US this weekend, and TF will be playing in 36. It's not a whole lot, but some did bring them back.

[misterpepp]

Last post, I promise:

Angel Studios' next nationwide theatrical release, The Shift, opens December 1. Don't think it's been officially announced anywhere, but AMC has the date listed on their site.

 

And I'm sure there won't be any controversy around this one... surely... maybe...

[VanillaSkies]

8 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Last post, I promise:

Angel Studios' next nationwide theatrical release, The Shift, opens December 1. Don't think it's been officially announced anywhere, but AMC has the date listed on their site.

 

And I'm sure there won't be any controversy around this one... surely... maybe...

interesting. 
a sci-fi faith based film. I genuinely am curious how this one will perform.

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Last post, I promise:

 

You don't get to leave until you give a The Creator update. 

(j/k thanks for all the updates)