The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Giorno]

9 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

 

I'd not heard of it either until I saw your post. Appears to be usual Thursday previews and Wednesday EA (Fathom First special event including an exclusive Q&A with Helen Mirren and director Guy Nattiv - nice). GOLDA | Fathom Events

 

Looks to be doing pretty okay in your region!

helen promoting?

[Boxofficerules]

3 hours ago, el sid said:

That looks almost too good to be true, no? OTOH almost all horror films did fine this year, especially when they were parts of a series. Spiral had an OW of 9M and Saw X has way better circumstances and Jigsaw is back. So maybe the Quorum data isn't way off.

I just don't understand how Quorum works. When do Saw X tickets go one sale?

Edited August 22, 2023 by Boxofficerules

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/21/2023 at 4:39 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Gran Turismo (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	63	16	89	11995	0.74

 

Comps:

0.3x Blue Beetle- $976k

0.37x Haunted Mansion (just Thursday)- $1.14 Million

 

Dropped against both.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Gran Turismo (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	91	38	128	15239	0.85

 

Comps:

0.36x Blue Beetle- $1.18 Million

0.46x Haunted Mansion (Just Thursday)- $1.41 Million

 

Bunch of new shows and a few new theaters, and great jumps today versus both comps. Let's hope it keeps up the momentum

[abracadabra1998]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I can’t find the club. Send a link 

 

Take a chance on me

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/21/2023 at 6:49 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	469	31243	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.212x) of Fast X

~$1.59M THUR Previews

 

(0.239x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

(0.429x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.42M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.56M

 

Pretty great growth. My early prediction would be ~$1.5M Thursday preview. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

Gran Turismo 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	519	31596	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

50

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.208x) of Fast X

~$1.56M THUR Previews

 

(0.246x) of Mi7 (only TUES)

~$1.72M THUR Previews

 

(0.424x) of Blue Beetle

~$1.40M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.56M

 

Sticking with $1.5M previews for now. Overall, meh growth today. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/21/2023 at 6:42 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	349	30629	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.299x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.10M THUR Previews

 

(0.223x) of Fast X

~$1.67M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.89M

 

Pretty good day locally. Heading to $2M based on pace.

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	381	30629	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

32

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.315x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.20M THUR Previews

 

(0.238x) of Fast X

~$1.78M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $1.99M

 

Another good day. Increased against both comps. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
126	61	22395	0.27%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.295x) of Strays

~$243k THUR Previews

 

(0.163x) of TMNT

~$626k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $434k

[eman92]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I just don't understand how Quorum works. When do Saw X tickets go one sale?

Tickets probably wont go on sale for 2-3 weeks from now since The Nun II's tickets still aren't available and that comes out in like 2 1/2 weeks. I will say Saw X has some pretty strong metrics so far. Trailer got 47.8M views across Tiktok/Twitter/Youtube. On top of that Lionsgate posted 3 Saw tiktok's a few days after the trailer dropped and they got 10.1M views, 11.6M views, 4.8M views. They posted an Expendables tiktok a week later and it got 42.6K in views, which shows there is some solid interest in Saw X since not all Lionsgate's tiktoks do that well. Now will this translate into a 30M opening, no I don't think that's guaranteed. But the Quorum data does backup that the film has solid awareness/interest. The film is tracking on par/slightly higher than Insidious Last Door on Quorum and it's tracking higher than the Nun II at the 39 day mark (Which Saw X is at). Insidious Red Door opened to 33M, so IF the Quorum data is reliable then you could say Saw X should open to around 30M. BUT I did notice that Strays and Oppenheimer had similar awareness of like 48% the day of their films coming out, and well we know Strays bombed and Oppenheimber excelled.

 

I think the biggest telling will be when we have Nun II pre-sales we can compare that to Saw X pre-sales and that should give us the most accurate picture. Both are franchise movies, sequels, coming out in September and both horror. So time will tell, but I do feel like Saw X has much more hype than Spiral or Jigsaw had going for it. Still the last month of marketing will make or break this film, and I don't think Saw X will have any PLF (Imax goes to Creator, Dolby will go to Paw Patrol). 

Edited August 23, 2023 by eman92

[ringedmortality]

When do Haunting in Venice tickets go on sale 

[filmlover]

Super Mario Bros, Transformers, and Asteroid City are coming back to a number of theaters near me this weekend among movies that left a while ago returning for National Cinema Day.

[filmlover]

Quote

 

In the midst of a weekend with National Cinema Day, in addition to several previews, Sony’s feature take of PlayStation game, Gran Turismo, is bound to take No. 1 at the box office. This despite the fact that tracking has lowered its projections on the film down to $12M from $15M.

 

 

Gran Turismo originally was scheduled to open on Aug. 11, but Sony unconventionally decided to pivot to previews for two weeks prior to the pic’s opening this Friday in an effort to drum up word of mouth on the Neill Blomkamp directed movie since the cast wasn’t available due to the SAG-AFTRA strike. Per industry sources, not Sony, previews are estimated to be in the $3M-plus range. That cash will be rolled into Gran Turismo‘s first Friday. This would boost the movie’s opening weekend to an estimated $15M in 3,800 theaters. In major markets such as LA, cinemas have been playing Gran Turismo on Friday, Saturday and Sunday; two weekends back-to-back. Thursday previews start at 2PM in 3,100 sites. So far, critics aren’t fans of Gran Turismo at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes, but moviegoers who’ve seen it are at 98%. The production was $60M before P&A.

 

‘Gran Turismo’ Poised to Win No. 1 At Weekend Box Office – Deadline

[Hilts]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

‘Gran Turismo’ Poised to Win No. 1 At Weekend Box Office – Deadline

 

Quote

Per industry sources, not Sony, previews are estimated to be in the $3M-plus range.

 

On 8/18/2023 at 5:08 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

If I had to throw out a number, maybe 3m for all EA combined?

 

👀

[vafrow]

On 8/22/2023 at 6:27 AM, vafrow said:

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-3

 

Total sales: 338

New sales: 118

Growth from yesterday: 54%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 1.91

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

 

Regional comps

0.578x of Blue Beetle for $1.9M

 

Local comps regionally adjusted

 

0.249x Fast X for $2.2M

0.110x T:ROTB for $0.8M

 

Really good day. Comps all went up and giving some hope for $2M.

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-2

 

Total sales: 447

New sales: 109

Growth from yesterday: 32%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 2.53

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

 

Regional comps

0.594x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

 

Local comps regionally adjusted

 

0.1201x Fast X for $0.9M

0.291x T:ROTB for $2.6M

I transposed the local compa incorrectly yesterday, so they were on the wrong line.

 

Another good day with things trending up. I'd say $2.0-$2.5M for true Thursday.

[vafrow]

On 8/22/2023 at 6:43 AM, vafrow said:

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-10, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  98

New Sales: 7

Growth from yesterday: 8%

Theatre Count:  43

Showtimes:  148

Tickets per showtime: 0.66

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.557x Blue Beetle for $1.8M

 

Not a great day, but similar to its comp, so it's not a disaster.

 

Equalizer 3, Thursday previews T-9, southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  117

New Sales: 19

Growth from yesterday: 19%

Theatre Count:  51

Showtimes:  163

Tickets per showtime: 0.718

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Regional comp

0.619x Blue Beetle for $2.0M

 

Good steady growth, but, also growing at this stage versus a CBM should be the expectation. Still, if it can continue to improve, it feels like $2.5M is a reasonable target here.

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Golda	T-1	Jax	2	4	104	104	366	28.42%
		Phx	2	4	33	33	364	9.07%
		Ral	4	6	46	46	531	8.66%
	Total		8	14	183	183	1,261	14.51%
Gran Turismo	T-2	Jax	5	54	21	71	9,244	0.77%
		Phx	6	45	16	71	8,230	0.86%
		Ral	8	32	19	74	4,487	1.65%
	Total		19	131	56	216	21,961	0.98%
Jurassic 3D	T-2	Jax	3	6	19	19	326	5.83%
		Phx	4	6	25	25	617	4.05%
	Total		8	13	44	44	943	4.67%
Retribution	T-2	Jax	3	6	2	2	428	0.47%
		Phx	3	6	4	4	476	0.84%
		Ral	5	10	7	7	844	0.83%
	Total		11	22	13	13	1,748	0.74%
The Hill	T-2	Jax	3	6	11	11	428	2.57%
		Phx	3	7	2	2	495	0.40%
		Ral	5	10	7	7	770	0.91%
	Total		11	23	20	20	1,693	1.18%

 

GT T-2 comps

 - F9 - .125x (886k)

 - MI:7 - .172x (1.1m)

 - Haunted Mansion - .348x (1.01m)

 - Turtles - .367x (1.41m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .659x (1.78m)

 - Lost City - .619x (1.55m)

 - Free Guy - .615x (1.35m)

 - Meg 2 - .722x (2.31m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.99m

 

Golda T-1 comps

 - Respect - 1.743x (1.13m)

 - House of Guci - .504x (655k)

 - Cry Macho - .989x (1.58m)

 - Stillwater - 3.894x (1.09m)

 

Not sure what to expect for this.  Hadn't heard of it until yesterday.  Not sure if this is a Thursday release or if tomorrow is EA, but with most locations carrying two shows I figured that would be comparable to other previews for smaller movies.

 

The Hill T-2 comps

 - The Outfit - .909x

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .87x

 - She Said - .8x (128k)

 - Stillwater - .625x

 

Retribution T-2 comps

 - Blacklight - .565x (127k)

 - Copshop - 1.182x (148k)

 - Memory - .542x

 - The Protege - .277x

 

Not much to report.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Golda	T-1	Jax	3	9	29	29	435	6.67%
		Phx	1	3	5	5	123	4.07%
		Ral	4	12	13	13	930	1.40%
	Total		8	24	47	47	1,488	3.16%
Golda (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	4	2	106	366	28.96%
		Phx	2	4	2	35	364	9.62%
		Ral	4	6	6	52	531	9.79%
	Total		8	14	10	193	1,261	15.31%
Gran Turismo	T-1	Jax	5	54	8	79	8,586	0.92%
		Phx	6	45	14	85	8,230	1.03%
		Ral	8	32	22	96	4,487	2.14%
	Total		19	131	44	260	21,303	1.22%
Jurassic 3D	T-1	Jax	4	11	5	24	797	3.01%
		Phx	4	9	6	31	1,154	2.69%
	Total		9	21	11	55	1,951	2.82%
Retribution	T-1	Jax	5	10	8	10	704	1.42%
		Phx	4	9	1	5	746	0.67%
		Ral	7	14	5	12	1,072	1.12%
	Total		16	33	14	27	2,522	1.07%
The Hill	T-1	Jax	4	8	0	11	508	2.17%
		Phx	3	7	0	2	495	0.40%
		Ral	5	10	0	7	770	0.91%
	Total		12	25	0	20	1,773	1.13%

 

GT T-1 comps

 - F9 - .119x (846k)

 - MI:7 - .171x (1.09m)

 - Haunted Mansion - .348x (1.01m)

 - Turtles - .354x (1.36m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .563x (1.52m)

 - Lost City - .538x (1.35m)

 - Free Guy - .644x (1.42m)

 - Meg 2 - .568x (1.82m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 1.78m

 

GT pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Gran Turismo	111.38%	68.29%	61.54%	20.37%
F9: The Fast Saga	75.75%	22.24%	16.27%	26.07%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%
Haunted Mansion	78.52%	32.46%	19.79%	20.65%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Jungle Cruise	126.47%	24.02%	31.61%	40.85%
Lost City	101.25%	16.67%	20.00%	38.40%
Free Guy	45.32%	42.45%		15.10%
Meg 2	143.62%	62.23%		53.18%

 

Looking for around +42% tomorrow to keep in line with the ~1.4m avg.

 

Golda (Total) T-1 comps

 - Respect (Total) - .566x (368k)

 - Downton (Total) - .206x (370k)

These two comps were really EA heavy as well so this is a likely outcome.

 - House of Gucci - .661x (860k)

 

The Hill T-1 comps

 - The Outfit - .769x

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .571x

 - She Said - .667x (107k)

 - Stillwater - .426x (119k)

 

Retribution T-1 comps

 - Blacklight - .771x (174k)

 - Copshop - missed

 - Memory - .9x

 - The Protege - .482x

 

Jurassic Park T-1 comps

 - Titanic - .261x

 - Return of the King - missed

 - ET - .902x

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-9	Jax	5	46	3	58	8,308	0.70%
		Phx	6	32	4	46	6,700	0.69%
		Ral	7	34	10	50	5,697	0.88%
	Total		18	112	17	154	20,705	0.74%

 

Equalizer 3 T-9 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - .147x (1.31m)

 - Matrix 4 - .117x (743k)

 - F9 - .178x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .505x (2.32m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.56x (2.26m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .87x (2.61m)

 - Creed III - .458x (2.5m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-8	Jax	5	46	13	71	8,308	0.85%
		Phx	6	32	12	58	6,700	0.87%
		Ral	7	37	16	66	5,967	1.11%
	Total		18	115	41	195	20,975	0.93%

 

Equalizer 3 T-8 comps 

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Matrix 4 - .136x (864k)

 - F9 - .217x (1.54m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .617x (2.84m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.88x (2.72m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.03x (3.08m)

 - Creed III - .499x (2.72m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.84m

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Gran Turismo, southern Ontario, Thursday previews, T-2

 

Total sales: 447

New sales: 109

Growth from yesterday: 32%

Theatre Count: 50

Showtimes: 177

Ticket per showtime: 2.53

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

 

Regional comps

0.594x of Blue Beetle for $2.0M

 

Local comps regionally adjusted

 

0.1201x Fast X for $0.9M

0.291x T:ROTB for $2.6M

I transposed the local compa incorrectly yesterday, so they were on the wrong line.

 

Another good day with things trending up. I'd say $2.0-$2.5M for true Thursday.

 

I thought I'd do a quick NCD comparison before the numbers before too unwieldly.

 

With Sunday tickets only becoming available last night, Sunday tickets for Gran Turismo is at 1694 for the region, so almost 4x the Thursday previews.

 

Lots of people checking it out may never intended to see it in theatres otherwise, but I do fear that it's going to consume a lot of the demand.

[SpiderByte]

Man, everything this year is coming under expectations except Mario, Barbie and Oppenheimer. And Sound of Freedom but that's a gigantic asterix.

Edited August 23, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Man, everything this year is coming under expectations except Mario, Barbie and Oppenheimer. And Sound of Freedom but that's a gigantic asterix.

M3GAN, Evil Dead Rise, Scream VI & Insidious The Red Door. 

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-16: 34.32% Awareness

It Lives Inside T-30: 18.52% Awareness

Freelance T-44: 23.08% Awareness

The Exorcist: Believer T-51: 35.31% Awareness

Dune: Part Two T-72: 35.39% Awareness

The Holdovers T-79: 11.29% Awareness

Snow White T-212: 39.39% Awareness

 

Gran Turismo T-2: 38.33% Awareness

Final Awareness: 32% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 73% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

The Hill T-2: 23.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Retribution T-2: 33.6% Awareness

Final Awareness: 32% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M