The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

A Haunting in Venice counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 94 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 89 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 113 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 136 (5 showtimes; I counted it again and indeed it lost two tickets!)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 473.

Up poor 18% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets,
Crawdads had 262,

TLC had 745,
BT had 1.508
and Ticket to Paradise had 153 sold tickets in 6 theaters (AHIV has 347 in the same 6 theaters).

Now only on par with Death on the Nile . With that poor jump 15M OW would be my final guess.

PS: Expend4bles numbers tomorrow because it has now showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadows where action films have to be successful and let's see what happens. But so far almost nothing happened. Is there a reason why the ticket sales today are so bad?

[Hilts]

Expend4bles							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	19	53	0	19	19	9,902	0.19%

 

Comps
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.279x	=	$0.89m
The Nun II					0.311x	=	$0.97m
The Equalizer 3					0.124x	=	$0.47m

 

9 years since the last one, wow. Let's give it a few days to see where it goes. Equalizer had a week extra sales so comp will improve I would guess.

[Hilts]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:18 PM, Hilts said:

 

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-18	3	3	0	1	6	1,224	0.49%
T-17	3	3	0	3	9	1,224	0.74%
T-16	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-15	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-14	3	3	0	-1	8	1,224	0.65%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-19	17	43	0	4	49	8,947	0.55%
T-18	17	43	0	8	57	8,947	0.64%
T-17	17	43	0	2	59	8,947	0.66%
T-16	17	43	0	7	66	8,947	0.74%
T-15	17	43	0	5	71	8,947	0.79%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.113x	=	$1.22m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.138x	=	$1.22m
Barbie					0.051x	=	$1.14m
Oppenheimer					0.092x	=	$0.97m
Haunted Mansion					0.637x	=	$1.97m
Strays					1.795x	=	$1.97m

 

Comp average = $1.42m

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-17	3	3	0	3	9	1,224	0.74%
T-16	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-15	3	3	0	0	9	1,224	0.74%
T-14	3	3	0	-1	8	1,224	0.65%
T-13	3	3	0	3	11	1,224	0.90%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-18	17	43	0	8	57	8,947	0.64%
T-17	17	43	0	2	59	8,947	0.66%
T-16	17	43	0	7	66	8,947	0.74%
T-15	17	43	0	5	71	8,947	0.79%
T-14	17	43	0	7	78	8,947	0.87%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.203x	=	$1.32m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.141x	=	$1.24m
Barbie					0.053x	=	$1.19m
Oppenheimer					0.098x	=	$1.03m
Haunted Mansion					0.669x	=	$2.07m
Strays					1.854x	=	$2.04m

 

Comp average = $1.48m

[Hilts]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:21 PM, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-34	19	154	0	94	10,594	28,259	37.49%
T-33	19	154	0	94	10,688	28,259	37.82%
T-32	19	154	0	46	10,734	28,259	37.98%
T-31	19	154	0	53	10,787	28,259	38.17%
T-30	19	154	0	33	10,820	28,259	38.29%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.094x	=	$23.09m
Oppenheimer					2.222x	=	$23.33m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.588x	=	$25.83m

 

Bonus comp: Barbie (EA only) after 14 days of sales - 19.049x = $20.95m

 

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-33	19	154	0	94	10,688	28,259	37.82%
T-32	19	154	0	46	10,734	28,259	37.98%
T-31	19	154	0	53	10,787	28,259	38.17%
T-30	19	154	0	33	10,820	28,259	38.29%
T-29	19	154	0	61	10,881	28,259	38.50%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.101x	=	$23.22m
Oppenheimer					2.235x	=	$23.46m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.608x	=	$25.98m

 

Bonus comp: Barbie (EA only) after 15 days of sales - 18.793x = $20.67m

 

Small bump? Maybe not as it's similar to prior 2 days. If it drops back down tomorrow then we will know.

[Hilts]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:48 PM, Hilts said:

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	1	1	0	1	17	563	3.02%
T-3	1	1	0	2	19	563	3.37%
T-2	1	1	0	0	19	563	3.37%
T-1	1	1	0	1	20	563	3.55%
T-0	1	1	0	24	44	563	7.82%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-5	19	50	0	20	87	9,987	0.87%
T-4	19	50	0	17	104	9,987	1.04%
T-3	19	50	0	16	120	9,987	1.20%
T-2	23	65	0	45	165	12,292	1.34%
T-1	23	65	0	36	201	12,292	1.64%
Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.936x	=	$2.01m
Asteroid City					1.063x	=	$1.17m
Haunted Mansion					0.312x	=	$0.99m
Talk To Me					1.740x	=	$2.17m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.472x	=	$1.51m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.167x	=	$1.62m
Strays					0.801x	=	$0.88m
Blue Beetle					0.491x	=	$1.62m
Gran Turismo					1.028x	=	$1.44m
The Equalizer 3					0.432x	=	$1.64m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.046x	=	$1.13m
The Nun II					0.695x	=	$2.15m

 

Comp average = $1.53m. Still closely following GT so thinking $1.3m-$1.4m unless there is a big change tomorrow.

 

Not sure how much EA will play into it but with only 1 showing/theatre in my region I would guess minimal impact, maybe $100k max.

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	1	1	0	1	17	563	3.02%
T-3	1	1	0	2	19	563	3.37%
T-2	1	1	0	0	19	563	3.37%
T-1	1	1	0	1	20	563	3.55%
T-0	1	1	0	24	44	563	7.82%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-4	19	50	0	17	104	9,987	1.04%
T-3	19	50	0	16	120	9,987	1.20%
T-2	23	65	0	45	165	12,292	1.34%
T-1	23	65	0	36	201	12,292	1.64%
T-0	23	65	0	158	359	12,230	2.94%
Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.750x	=	$1.61m
Asteroid City					1.182x	=	$1.30m
Haunted Mansion					0.337x	=	$1.04m
Talk To Me					1.300x	=	$1.62m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.407x	=	$1.30m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					1.498x	=	$1.12m
Strays					0.880x	=	$0.97m
Blue Beetle					0.519x	=	$1.71m
Gran Turismo					1.158x	=	$1.62m
The Equalizer 3					0.364x	=	$1.38m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					1.995x	=	$1.10m
The Nun II					0.553x	=	$1.71m

 

Comp average = $1.37m. Finished where I expected although I have tracked this one hour earlier than normal today.

 

Therefore I will bump slightly to $1.4m-$1.5m and upper teens OW.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	477	30348	1.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(1.407x) of Talk to Me ~$1.75M THUR Previews

(1.184x) of Boogeyman ~$1.30M THUR Previews

(0.580x) of Nun II~$1.80M THUR Previews

(1.923x) of The Blackening~$1.44M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.57M THUR Previews

 

Early prediction would be $1.5M for now

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	810	30721	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

333

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.280x) of Talk to Me ~$1.59M THUR Previews

(1.757x) of Boogeyman ~$1.93M THUR Previews

(0.679x) of Nun II~$2.10M THUR Previews

(2.630x) of The Blackening~$1.97M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.90M THUR Previews

 

This was a very strong day locally, upping my prediction to $1.9M +/- $0.4M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	358	25529	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.356x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.10M THUR Previews

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	377	25529	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

19

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.364x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.13M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	327	28131	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.640x) of Blue Beetle ~$2.05M THUR Previews

(0.265x) of RoTB ~$2.33M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $2.19M

 

2 refunded tickets

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

THE CREATOR

 

Thursday Previews 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
137	353	28131	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.669x) of Blue Beetle ~$2.21M THUR Previews

(0.274x) of RoTB ~$2.41M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $2.31M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	88	27453	0.32%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.220x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$836k THUR Previews

 

Very very slow start 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

EXPEND4BLES

 

Thursday Previews 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
139	140	27453	0.51%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.341x) of EQUALIZER 3 ~$1.29M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10679	43473	24.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

previews: 

(0.803x) of Barbie ~$16.94M FRIDAY for TET

(0.997x) of GOTG3~$17.45M FRIDAY for TET

(0.965x) of ATSV~$16.74M FRIDAY for TET

(1.609x) of TLM~$16.58M FRIDAY for TET

 

COMP AVG: $16.93M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.70M

 

Not going to update comps today because the scraper issue is back

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
224	10864	43473	25.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

19

 

COMPS

T-0

 

No good comps this far out so I'll just compare to T-0 since volume is already absurdly high 

T-0 previews: 

(0.809x) of Barbie ~$17.07M FRIDAY for TET

(0.972x) of ATSV~$16.74M FRIDAY for TET

(1.622x) of TLM~$16.70M FRIDAY for TET

COMP AVG: $16.84M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $23.58M

 

T-29 comps

(2.182x) of GOTG3~$49.2M FRIDAY for TET

 

84 seats sold over the past 2 days. Added T-x GOTG comp

[Eric Prime]

 

[HummingLemon]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, Revelation gave themselves nearly a 150m cushion of a range for the OW so I would hope they would be close to a target!

 

(the high end is not something I'm debating — but 140m range on a OW is... a bit much)

As long as it's in that range or close then I'll count it

 

I'm lowkey stanning for this specific user. All his predictions have been correct especially The Flash and Barbie

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/10/2023 at 6:16 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

A Haunting in Venice (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	36	66	126	6162	2.04
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	10	17	508	3.35
TOTALS:	38	76	143	6670	2.14

 

Comps:

1.32x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.65 Million

2.38x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.79 Million

2.02x No Hard Feelings: $4.34 Million

1.26x The Equalizer 3: $4.8 Million

 

Just kinda throwing everything at this, since it's a mix of horror and a release aimed at older adults.

 

The Creator (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	26	32	68	4174	1.63
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	5	7	586	1.19
TOTALS:	28	37	75	4760	1.58

 

Comps:

0.6x Haunted Mansion: $1.86 Million

0.33x TMNT (w/ EA): $1.83 Million

 

The Exorcist: Believer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	43	19	72	7873	0.91

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Expend4bles (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	32	38	38	4994	0.76

 

Comps:

0.4x Equalizer 3: $1.54 Million

0.75x The Nun II: $2.3 Million

 

The Equalizer for the genre comp, the Nun comp for having the same start of sales. Pretty decent start tbh, I was expecting worse.

 

The Creator (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	25	46	114	4054	2.81
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	8	15	586	2.56
TOTALS:	27	54	129	4640	2.78

 

Comps:

0.8x Haunted Mansion: $2.5 Million

0.38x TMNT (w/ EA): $2.1 Million

 

Pretty good update, but heads up, most of those new sales are from the local Alamo theater. That theater has jumped out to me before for having a huge jump at the beginning and then flattening out, so I wouldn't read into it too much yet.

 

Exorcist: The Believer (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	43	19	72	7873	0.91

 

Comp:

0.666x Haunted Mansion: $2.1 Million

 

It's a silly comp but all my real horror comps are for way closer to release date.

 

[Relevation]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, Revelation gave themselves nearly a 150m cushion of a range for the OW so I would hope they would be close to a target!

 

(the high end is not something I'm debating — but a 140m range for a OW prediction/projection is... a bit much)

Quite frankly when the uncertainty is this high I think a $140M cushion is warranted

I have it at $300M OW / $845M DOM for now but I’m not confident in that lol

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
154	810	30721	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

333

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(1.280x) of Talk to Me ~$1.59M THUR Previews

(1.757x) of Boogeyman ~$1.93M THUR Previews

(0.679x) of Nun II~$2.10M THUR Previews

(2.630x) of The Blackening~$1.97M THUR Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.90M THUR Previews

 

This was a very strong day locally, upping my prediction to $1.9M +/- $0.4M

 

That is indeed an awesome final day, I hope we see the same everywhere else. Pulling for this movie.

[HummingLemon]

Just now, Relevation said:

Quite frankly when the uncertainty is this high I think a $140M cushion is warranted

I have it at $300M OW / $845M DOM for now but I’m not confident in that lol

Chances of TFA losing the crown?

[vafrow]

On 9/12/2023 at 8:23 PM, vafrow said:

 

The Creator and Exorcist: Believer, D1 (T-16, T-23 respectively), southern Ontario 

 

I thought with both going on advance sale at the same time this morning, I'd do a combined update. We're probably about 10 hours since they went up.l on MTC4, where I'm tracking.

 

Creator

 

Total sales: 28

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 0.28

 

Exorcist Believer

 

Total sales: 18

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.191

 

No comps, as it's more about comparing against each other, and I don't have much to really use.

 

Creator slightly outselling at this stage isn't too strange, as it's coming out a week earlier.

 

The Creator, Thursday previews (T-14), southern Ontario 

 

Total sales: 62

New sales: 34

Growth from Tuesday (D1): 121%

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 0.62

 

1.170x of Equalizer 3 for $4.4M

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour T-29: 37.85% Awareness

Night Swim T-113: 16.82%

Underdoggs T-134: 20.73%

Challengers T-225: 17.3%

 

A Haunting in Venice T-1: 39% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

 

Expend4bles T-8: 41.28% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 64% chance of 20M, 54% chance of 30M

 

It Lives Inside T-8: 24.2% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-36: 26.93% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 64% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-64: 27.7% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 13% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M, 4% chance of 70M, 2% chance of 80M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

Next Goal Wins T-64: 12.45% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 22% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[M37]

On 9/9/2023 at 10:18 AM, M37 said:

For some context, I went back and pulled the numbers @ZackM posted for Barbenheimer's opening weekend at MTC1. Here's the sales for Friday evening, from 6PM and later only, for those films:

• Barbie = 357.6K / 464.2K = 77% capacity
• Oppy = 204.1K / 300.9K = 68% capacity
• TOTAL = 561.7K / 765.0K = 73.4% total capacity across MTC1

Notice that Eras already has as many MTC1 seats allocated as Barbenheimer did for that opening Friday evening! and we're already up to 65% total capacity, and 88% of Barbenheimer's final sales from 6PM on ... with 5 weeks left to go before opening.

 

I'm just not sure all that many more Friday seats can be allocated given the start time, especially as those Eras screens will need to be filled M-Th by some other content. I doubt studios will agree to a M-Th only booking in dead weekdays October, will expect at least 2 shows on weekend, and Exorcist a full screen for week 2. So max like half of all screens can go to Eras, even less for Friday. [Unless theaters are just going to have empty screens during the week].  Also fwiw, Barbeheimer had ~1.9M total seats at MTC1 for Saturday (though Barbie's shorter running time probably helped boost that total), and here Eras already has 1.56M allocated

 

This being such a massive pre-sale heavy day of shows is why I brought up the Barbie Blow-Out and big EA shows, because projecting forward is not about pace (ie demand), but simply what showtime and seats people are willing to settle for just go on opening night.  For example, a typical big MCU film increases its Thursday sales by ~44% from T-1 to T-F at MTC1 (and even PLF heavy Oppy still managed +39%), While the Batman and TGM EA shows were only +5% and +14% respectively, and Barbie actually went negative due to >95% capacity and refunds [The MTC1 portion was over $400K btw]

 

Maxing out at a ballpark of say 800K seats and 75% capacity would be 600K total tickets, and current number is just shy of 500K. There just ain't a lot of room for growth, but 600K MTC1 tickets at the inflated ATP is still is still going to be a massive OD total (will get more into the weeds on those numbers at a later time)

Looking at Saturday and Sunday for Eras, again using Barbenheimer a guide

 

Saturday

On Sat, BH sold ~1.16M tickets at MTC1, though with a somewhat higher show and seat count. On the higher end, Eras could be looking at 1M+ tickets just for this chain when dust (glitter?) settles, and with a typical market share and much higher ATP, perhaps approaching Endgame's record Saturday of $109.26M

 

To put it another way, take the $74M combined gross for Barbeheimer, add a 50% adjustment for ATP - especially with no matinee pricing - and you get to $111M

 

Sunday

The Barbenheimer Sunday, as capacity limitations and WOM pushed up demand, posted a combined -10% Sunday gross, and only -7% in raw ticket sales.  However, this isn't July, and in the Fall, its difficult to post a sub-30% drop for Sunday, and really nothing goes under 25% without a holiday. But here again, the flat pricing will help, and a high end result of of -25% ticket sales still likely keeps the gross at -20% or better range

 

Put it all together, and IMO looking at an IM (from Friday) in approximately the 4-5x range, and using a working $40-$50M Friday estimate, a $160-$250M OW. That's a fairly wide range, so feel free to trim down on either on both ends on preference, but difficult for me to project outside of that range given the data in hand

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Haunting in Venice MTC1 previews(T-1) - 15964/278692 296504.08 1464 shows

 

I dont have early show numbers but its limited and so thinking 150K-200K range for that. Thursday if it doubles is looking around 1.5m. If the walkups are way better may be 2m is possible. But most probably it will fall short. 

A Haunting in Venice MTC1 previews Final - 27127/280265 487471.63 1473 shows

 

Thinking around ~1.6m including early shows. @across the Jat verse as expected ATP dropped a lot today with walkups.