The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	360	25529	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(0.334x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.44M THUR Previews

 

I have no horror comps this far out so i'll just use oppy for now

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER

 

Thursday Previews 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	344	25529	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.347x) of Haunted Mansion~$1.08M THUR Previews

 

Finally have a horror comp 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

A Haunting in Venice (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	42	39	165	7668	2.15
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	6	23	508	4.53
TOTALS:	44	45	188	8176	2.3

 

Comps:

1.4x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.75 Million

2.72x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.04 Million

2.02x No Hard Feelings: $4.34 Million

1.28x The Equalizer 3: $4.86 Million

0.5x Haunted Mansion: $1.56 Million

2.35x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.29 Million

 

Trending nicely, added some other comps. Guessing something like $1.75 Million at this point, but we'll see how this finishes up the week. Swizzle Patrol updates coming later tonight.

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

A Haunting in Venice (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	54	38	203	9211	2.2
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	6	23	508	4.53
TOTALS:	56	44	226	9719	2.33

 

Comps:

1.25x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $1.56 Million

2.19x Last Voyage of Demeter: $1.64 Million

1.93x No Hard Feelings: $4.15 Million

1.08x The Equalizer 3: $4.09 Million

0.54x Haunted Mansion: $1.66 Million

1.84x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.01 Million

 

Dropped against all comps except for Haunted Mansion. Final numbers, growth rates, and prediction tomorrow.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 9/11/2023 at 7:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
140	421	28269	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

79

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.958x) of Talk to Me ~$2.44M THUR Previews

 

(1.380x) of Boogeyman ~$1.52M THUR Previews

 

(0.686x) of Nun II~$2.13M THUR Previews

 

(0.178x) of Haunted Mansion~$552k THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.66M THUR Previews

 

Nice increase against comps 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

A HAUNTING IN VENICE

 

Thursday Previews 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
152	422	30348	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(1.702x) of Talk to Me ~$2.12M THUR Previews

 

(1.291x) of Boogeyman ~$1.42M THUR Previews

 

(0.633x) of Nun II~$1.96M THUR Previews

 

(0.155x) of Haunted Mansion~$481k THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.50M THUR Previews

 

1 seat sold this close to T-0 is odd for sure...Ran the scraper twice still the same results 

[vafrow]

9 hours ago, vafrow said:

It looks like advance tickets for both The Creator and Exorcist: Believer are available on Cineplex now.

 

Exorcist is in 47 theatres in my radius for Thursday previews. The Creator is in 48. I'm honestly surprised at the latter. It's a crowded weekend, but it looks like Disney has locked in a lot of theatres.

 

I'm kind of surprised. With Dumb Money, Saw X , and Paw Patrol all coming out, I figured things would be shared a bit more. 

 

The Creator and Exorcist: Believer, D1 (T-16, T-23 respectively), southern Ontario 

 

I thought with both going on advance sale at the same time this morning, I'd do a combined update. We're probably about 10 hours since they went up.l on MTC4, where I'm tracking.

 

Creator

 

Total sales: 28

Theatres: 48

Showtimes: 100

Tickets per showtime: 0.28

 

Exorcist Believer

 

Total sales: 18

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 94

Tickets per showtime: 0.191

 

No comps, as it's more about comparing against each other, and I don't have much to really use.

 

Creator slightly outselling at this stage isn't too strange, as it's coming out a week earlier.

[XXR vs XXR]

They just did the first commercial (that I've seen) for The Era's Tour movie during the VMA's. Taylor has already won twice tonight and will likely win 6-7 total awards, so she's trending all over Twitter right now. Curious if we see any kind of noticeable boost.

 

EDIT: I also see that her team (TaylorNation) is promoting it on Twitter/IG.

[tonytr87]

I have a hard time believing Exorcist won't hit 30 mil. I'm predicting 40m+ and am increasingly uncertain of BoxOfficePro's long-range reliability. 

[Porthos]

On 9/12/2023 at 12:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	138	11296	18606	7310	39.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

26

 

T-32 Comps:

%

Sold T-32

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

158.29

79

4618

0/294

32404/37022

12.47%

16800

43.51%

44.32m

64.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2164/6150  [35.19% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

25.94% of No Way Home's final total        [12.97m]

34.62% of Doctor Strange 2's final total   [12.46m]

43.10% of Thor 4's final total.                    [12.50m]

81.35% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.83m]

158.19% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.61m]

60.53% of Barbie's final total                    [13.50m]

 

On 9/12/2023 at 12:19 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	138	11296	18606	7310	39.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

26

 

T-32 Comps:

%

Sold T-32

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

158.29

79

4618

0/294

32404/37022

12.47%

16800

43.51%

44.32m

64.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2164/6150  [35.19% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

25.94% of No Way Home's final total        [12.97m]

34.62% of Doctor Strange 2's final total   [12.46m]

43.10% of Thor 4's final total.                    [12.50m]

81.35% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.83m]

158.19% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.61m]

60.53% of Barbie's final total                    [13.50m]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	11265	18606	7341	39.46%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	31

 

T-31 Comps:

%

Sold T-31

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Unadj  Comp

Ad-hoc Comp

BP2

151.20

237

4855

1/294

32167/37022

13.11%

16800

43.70%

42.34m

61.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2172/6150  [35.32% sold]

 

% of Final Totals: [NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR ATP DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER]

26.05% of No Way Home's final total        [13.02m]

34.76% of Doctor Strange 2's final total   [12.51m]

43.28% of Thor 4's final total.                    [12.50m]

81.69% of Avatar 2's final total                  [13.89m]

158.86% of Oppenheimer's final total       [16.68m]

60.78% of Barbie's final total                    [13.56m]

 

===

 

One of the very very few remaining non-reserved theaters in the region reopened sales for their sold out showing.  Either it was listed in error all along, or they decided to squeeze out some seats and truly try to sell each and every last one, or something else happened along the way.  Either way, that sellout has been removed from the totals.

 

Aside from that, not much else to add except to note that I'll rope in AM3 in a couple of days or so.

[vafrow]

On 9/12/2023 at 5:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-32 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,672

New Sales: 116

Growth from yesterday 1%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 168.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Staying steady with the 1% growth. Still no fallout from the nuked showtimes.

 

The shows that were added after the first rush still have some capacity, but they're slowly filling up. That's where the bulk of the new sales are happening.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-31 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  15,785

New Sales: 93

Growth from yesterday 1%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Tickets per showtime: 169.5

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Things are really slowing down. My assumptions about these potentially cancelle shows have been off. I thought Cineplex would address it quickly, or fans would start asking questions. But there's been no updates it seems, and it hasn't lead to any increased buying of people trying to ensure they have a day one ticket.

 

I think it speaks to the fandom having their attention directed elsewhere. 

[VanillaSkies]

11 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

They just did the first commercial (that I've seen) for The Era's Tour movie during the VMA's. Taylor has already won twice tonight and will likely win 6-7 total awards, so she's trending all over Twitter right now. Curious if we see any kind of noticeable boost.

 

EDIT: I also see that her team (TaylorNation) is promoting it on Twitter/IG.

She won the award for Tour of the Summer, so I’m sure we will start seeing that advertised soon - “see the Tour on the Summer winner at the MTV awards…..”

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

I have a hard time believing Exorcist won't hit 30 mil. I'm predicting 40m+ and am increasingly uncertain of BoxOfficePro's long-range reliability. 

That’s why it’s called long-range😂

 

no one should expect super accurate numbers this far out 

[vafrow]

42 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

That’s why it’s called long-range😂

 

no one should expect super accurate numbers this far out 

 

It used to be 8 weeks out as well when they'd do predictions.

 

I've always loved the predictions because It's always been consistent. Shawn puts a forecast out at a preset period, regardless of the quality of information. Some forecasts have the benefit of early sales. Some don't. But you're getting it at that time, and it's often the first publication to put a number out there. Everyone else usually has that benchmark to base their estimates on.

 

It's never easy being the first, especially when there's an easy way to look up what was put forward after the fact.

[filmlover]

Exorcist: Believer is giving me Doctor Sleep vibes. It should do twice as well as that did though for a $60M-ish total since it's opening in October instead of after spooky season has passed.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Cinemark offering private Eras screenings for $800 a pop (up to 40 guests).

 

 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 9/11/2023 at 11:02 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-32

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5026

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 28.74%

New sales - 70 (+1.4%)

3-day average of new sales - 78.6 tickets 

 

Slowed down a little bit. But not doing that bad. If it can maintain this pace, should end up with ~1500 more sales by T-10ish. From there it will be ~35-40% capacity, which leaves room for a nice bump through T-Final. Fully expecting this to finish north of 60% capacity at this point. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-30 (2 days of sales)

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 5164

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 29.53%

New sales - 138 (+2.7%)

3-day average of new sales - 69.3 tickets

 

 

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Relevation]

Tickets for Expend4bles went up this morning

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

I think it speaks to the fandom having their attention directed elsewhere. 

 

It is that, yes (though I'll be curious to see if the VMA's give a boost today or not).  

 

But, at least locally, it's also just filled up shows in the desirable viewing corridors/locations.  Talked about it at length already, so I won't belabor the point, but right now just not a lot of good seats left at popular places/times.

 

Now this being a Friday night starter (instead of Thursday afternoon/night), one would think there'd be more of an inclination to grab later showing seats.  And I expect they are grabbing them in larger metros at a much quicker pace where the scene is more 24/7.  Sacto though, while it isn't *as* much of a "bedroom community" as it was when I was younger, is still nowhere near the level of activity of more populous urban areas.  So I'm not that surprised that there is still... a level of resistance to getting seats at later showtimes, Friday or no Friday.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Burnett]

Quorum Updates

Dumb Money T-16: 18.2% Awareness

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-16: 35.7%

Freelance T-44: 28.06%

Wish T-70: 24.97%

Wonka T-93: 55.83%

Bob Marley: One Love T-121: 26.39%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-177: 27.09%

Ghostbusters: Afterlife 2 T-198: 36.2%

Ballerina T-268: 16.84%

 

A Haunting in Venice T-2: 36.42% Awareness

Final Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

[el sid]

A Haunting in Venice counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 75 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 67 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 94 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 138 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 401.

Up modest 32.5% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Death on the Nile had 359 sold tickets,
Crawdads had 212,

TLC had 502,
BT had 1.000
and Ticket to Paradise had 101 sold tickets.

So my theaters are no exception at all: It dropped against all comps (which I had on Monday). Hopefully the jump till tomorrow is better. At the moment I would rather „predict“ 15M than 20M.

[el sid]

Expend4bles, counted today for Thursday, September 21. Maybe a ½ day on sale. 8 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 7 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (2 probably very recently added showtimes, it had no showtimes when I looked at it at noon in Europe; could be the same in Texas and Arizona)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 14 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 68 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 90.

Comps (all four films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 5 days left for Expend4bles; counted in the same 6 theaters): Angel Has Fallen had 199 sold tickets,
Rambo V had 181,
Creed III had 441
and Plane had 65 sold tickets.
Beast had after ca. 1 day 53 sold ticket
M3gan had after 1 day 57 sold tickets

and The Black Phone had also after 1 day 95 sold tickets.
The Equalizer 3 had with 10 days left 118 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters
and The Meg 2 had with 7 days left 70 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.
 

This time I won't use the John Wick 4 and the Fast X comps because they were completely worthless for The Equalizer 3. These type of films just have different walk-ups.
Friday presales in a few minutes.

Edited September 13, 2023 by el sid

[vafrow]

52 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It is that, yes (though I'll be curious to see if the VMA's give a boost today or not).  

 

But, at least locally, it's also just filled up shows in the desirable viewing corridors/locations.  Talked about it at length already, so I won't belabor the point, but right now just not a lot of good seats left at popular places/times.

 

Now this being a Friday night starter (instead of Thursday afternoon/night), one would think there'd be more of an inclination to grab later showing seats.  And I expect they are grabbing them in larger metros at a much quicker pace where the scene is more 24/7.  Sacto though, while it isn't *as* much of a "bedroom community" as it was when I was younger, is still nowhere near the level of activity of more populous urban areas.  So I'm not that surprised that there is still... a level of resistance to getting seats at later showtimes, Friday or no Friday.

 

I'm definitely curious to see how the awards show boost impacts. Although, mine was done this morning, so there was an opportunity for it to have some impact. But, realistically, tomorrow's update is more likely to benefit.

 

As for seat availability, it's the one element that I find my region is a little different. Premium showtimes went early here like everywhere else. But because evening IMAX shows were scheduled for Exorcist originally, they only went online a few days later. As a result, they're only at 30-40 capacity. These are the biggest theatres, in the best available format (note, not a universal sentiment I'm sure, as many may prefer the smaller VIP auditoriums perhaps).

 

Each day, the IMAX screens are generally grabbing the most sales due to most available good seats. But it's slow. If there were fans looking for good tickets, it wouldn't be hard to find them in these showings.

 

That said, everything in my region is messed up. There's over 5000 people that assume they have great seats that may not get them. Saturday sales are currently 30% better than Friday when you remove the Friday matinees, which seems to be a higher rate than elsewhere.

 

It's also the region where ticket sales may get impacted by the actual tour. There's 300K tickets that were sold for her tour dates here. I have no idea what that does to demand.

 

If you're someone who's scored tickets to see her, do you skip the movie to preserve the experience? Or, does the large amount of people who recently tried to land tickets and failed actually create more demand here since there's a very recent FOMO feeling.