The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

Ill try and do a proper post tonight, but Killers of the Flower Moon for Thursday previews has sold 148 tickets across the region, about 48 theatres.

 

97 of those tickets are in the flagship location downtown Toronto. When I checked earlier, it was in the 20s, so it's not likely big groups.

 

Ths people who want to see this want to see it in the best format and location possible.

 

This is about hour 4 or so of being on sale.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Eric Ross said:

 

New York will obviously be a bigger market than usual for this, but still found this neat.

 

FWIW, Killers of Flower Moon is playing much more like Nope than it did Oppenheimer, locally (not even an intentional joke here, BTW, just a ref to two diff Film Twitter darlings).

 

The local TrueIMAX theater which went cra cra for Oppenheimer, for instance, has sold exactly zero tickets on Thursday.

 

Tickets went on sale locally at 6pm last night and so far it's sold a grand total of 59 tickets, which isn't bad!  But it ain't Oppenheimer good, either.  It's more or less on par with the first day of sales of Nope at T-42 (57 tickets) but still less than Oppenheimer even when I strip out all of the 70mm print sales (94 non-70mm tickets sold).

 

Don't know if I'll check it locally or not tonight.  I'll think on it and see how it goes tonight.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Porthos

[el sid]

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 83 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 27 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 16 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 71 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 225.

Comps (all counted for Friday and in the same 6 theaters): PAW Patrol: The Movie (4.5M OD/13.1M OW) had 140 sold tickets,
Dolittle (5.375M true Friday /21.8M) had 143
and The Boss Baby 2 (6.4M true Friday/16.0M) had 58 sold tickets.

 

Quite nice!

 

[el sid]

The Creator, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 104 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 83 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): stillno showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 278 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 338 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 809.

Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): 65 (1.22M from previews) had 157 sold tickets
and Moonfall (700k but winter storms) had 584 sold tickets.

I need more and better comps. Dune and Matrix 4 are also not helpful because they had both thousands of sold tickets and still performed completely different.
Overall, more than 800 sold tickets on Monday are definitely good. If this film is not only popular at the coasts, 20M+ should happen. But let's see how good the jumps in the next few days are.
 

[el sid]

Saw X, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 71 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 34 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): still no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): still no showtimes
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 22 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 48 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 225 (4 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 400.

Up mediocre 27.5% since Saturday.
Comps (all six films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): M3gan (2.75M from previews) had 274 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 115,
The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 104,
Smile (2M) had 213,
Halloween Ends (5.4M) had 906 sold tickets
and The Nun II (3.1M) had 459 sold tickets (it had a better jump than Saw X: 59% from Saturday to Monday)= 2.7M for Saw X (on Saturday it were 3.4M). Funny, what was already mentioned by other members, namly that The Nun II is already in front or will be in front on Monday indeed happened in my theaters too. But Saw X could maybe have better walk-ups?
And The Boogeyman (1.1M) finally had 173 sold tickets.

 

Overall, that's a fine number. What gives me pause is how uneven the sales are. Great in LA, not bad in other regions but also far from stellar. Idk. E.g. The Nun II was way weaker in the AMC in LA but way stronger in NY and had also better presales in Miami.

[Bob Train]

October is shaping up nicely.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

FWIW, Killer Moon is playing much more like Nope than it did Oppenheimer, locally (not even an intentional joke here, BTW, just a ref to two diff Film Twitter darlings).

 

The local TrueIMAX theater which went cra cra for Oppenheimer, for instance, has sold exactly zero tickets on Thursday.

 

Tickets went on sale locally at 6pm last night and so far it's sold a grand total of 59 tickets, which isn't bad!  But it ain't Oppenheimer good, either.  It's more or less on par with the first day of sales of Nope at T-42 (57 tickets) but still less than Oppenheimer even when I strip out all of the 70mm print sales (94 non-70mm tickets sold).

 

Don't know if I'll check it locally or not tonight.  I'll think on it and see how it goes tonight.

Isn’t that like… REALLY good for Killers of the Flower Moon? Outpacing Nope on Day 1 is fantastic given that Nope was pulling $6.4M for previews and Killers will obviously have a much better internal multiplier. Maybe this actually can hit over $50M..

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Isn’t that like… REALLY good for Killers of the Flower Moon? Outpacing Nope on Day 1 is fantastic given that Nope was pulling $6.4M for previews and Killers will obviously have a much better internal multiplier. Maybe this actually can hit over $50M..

 

Wellll, Nope was 43 days out while Killers of the Flower Moon is/was 24.5 days out and that does matter at least a little.  OTOH, that's half a day's sales so far versus a full day's sale.

 

I dunno.  Guess it depends on how one defines "breakout".

Edited September 25, 2023 by Porthos

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

i'm still betting on 32-35 for Flower Moon, but anything over 40m would be immense. Possibly beating Shutter Island and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's 41m? Leo's biggest 3day OWs are Inception (62.7m) and Gatsby (50m). 

[Relevation]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Wellll, Nope was 43 days out while Killer Moon is/was 24.5 days out and that does matter at least a little.  OTOH, that's half a day's sales so far versus a full day's sale.

 

I dunno.  Guess it depends on how one defines "breakout".

Did you do a full track for Nope? Where was it at for T-24?

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Did you do a full track for Nope? Where was it at for T-24?

 

199 tickets sold at T-24.  But because it had 18 more days worth of pre-sales, if in drips and drabs after day 1, kinda not fair to compare it. 

 

===

 

Just so we know where I was coming from, I was responding mostly to Eric's post about how this did gangbusters at Lincoln Square by saying, more or less, "Yes, but..."

 

Still ruminating/marinating my thoughts on KotFM but I think they'll be more fleshed out when I take a peek tonight after a full day's worth of sales. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Porthos

[Hilts]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:44 PM, Hilts said:

 

Saw X							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	21	55	0	55	55	8,401	0.65%
T-6	21	55	0	33	88	8,401	1.05%
T-5	21	55	0	14	102	8,401	1.21%
T-4	21	55	0	26	128	8,401	1.52%

 

Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.749x	=	$3.74m
Talk To Me					2.462x	=	$3.06m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.771x	=	$2.47m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					3.122x	=	$2.34m
The Nun II					1.208x	=	$3.74m
Expend4bles					2.612x	=	$1.96m

 

Comp average: $2.89m

 

Saw X							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	21	55	0	55	55	8,401	0.65%
T-6	21	55	0	33	88	8,401	1.05%
T-5	21	55	0	14	102	8,401	1.21%
T-4	21	55	0	26	128	8,401	1.52%
T-3	21	55	0	41	169	8,401	2.01%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.914x	=	$4.57m
Talk To Me					3.189x	=	$3.97m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.671x	=	$2.15m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					3.073x	=	$2.30m
The Nun II					1.142x	=	$3.54m
Expend4bles					2.864x	=	$2.15m

 

Comp average: $3.11m

[Hilts]

On 9/24/2023 at 8:51 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	3	3	0	2	24	1,224	1.96%
T-6	3	3	0	3	27	1,224	2.21%
T-5	3	3	0	4	31	1,224	2.53%
T-4	3	3	0	8	39	1,224	3.19%
T-3	3	3	0	2	41	1,224	3.35%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	43	0	6	107	8,760	1.22%
T-7	20	45	0	8	115	9,613	1.20%
T-6	20	45	0	7	122	9,394	1.30%
T-5	20	45	0	7	129	9,394	1.37%
T-4	20	45	0	15	144	9,394	1.53%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.667x	=	$1.83m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.143x	=	$1.26m
Haunted Mansion					0.497x	=	$1.54m
Strays					1.480x	=	$1.63m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					2.891x	=	$1.59m
A Haunting In Venice					1.504x	=	$1.80m

 

Comp average: $1.61m

 

The Creator							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-6	3	3	0	3	27	1,224	2.21%
T-5	3	3	0	4	31	1,224	2.53%
T-4	3	3	0	8	39	1,224	3.19%
T-3	3	3	0	2	41	1,224	3.35%
T-2	3	3	0	19	60	1,224	4.90%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	20	45	0	8	115	9,613	1.20%
T-6	20	45	0	7	122	9,394	1.30%
T-5	20	45	0	7	129	9,394	1.37%
T-4	20	45	0	15	144	9,394	1.53%
T-3	20	45	0	41	185	9,394	1.97%
Comps
Asteroid City					1.944x	=	$2.14m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.172x	=	$1.51m
Haunted Mansion					0.547x	=	$1.70m
Strays					1.467x	=	$1.61m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					3.356x	=	$1.85m
A Haunting In Venice					1.763x	=	$2.12m

 

Comp average: $1.82m

[Boxofficerules]

Are things looking good for Saw X?

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie							OK
Friday - showings starting 10am
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	16	64	0	32	183	9,666	1.89%
T-8	18	70	0	44	227	10,206	2.22%
T-7	18	71	0	39	266	10,320	2.58%
T-6	18	71	0	48	314	10,320	3.04%
T-5	18	71	0	55	369	10,320	3.58%
Comps
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					6.150x	=	$3.38m
Blue Beetle					1.655x	=	$5.46m
Strays					3.237x	=	$3.56m
Haunted Mansion					1.139x	=	$3.53m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.532x	=	$2.98m

 

The recent lack of family fare should really help this. Basically sold the same in the last 5 days as TET.

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie							OK
Friday - showings starting 10am
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	18	70	0	44	227	10,206	2.22%
T-7	18	71	0	39	266	10,320	2.58%
T-6	18	71	0	48	314	10,320	3.04%
T-5	18	71	0	55	369	10,320	3.58%
T-4	18	72	0	93	462	10,403	4.44%
Comps
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					7.219x	=	$3.97m
Blue Beetle					1.901x	=	$6.27m
Strays					3.696x	=	$4.07m
Haunted Mansion					1.242x	=	$3.85m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.565x	=	$3.17m

 

Still increasing on all comps.

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-15	20	74	0	2	64	15,606	0.41%
T-14	20	74	0	7	71	15,606	0.45%
T-13	20	74	0	11	82	15,606	0.53%
T-12	20	74	0	3	85	15,606	0.54%
T-11	20	74	0	6	91	15,606	0.58%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.569x	=	$1.76m
Barbie					0.063x	=	$1.33m
Asteroid City					1.083x	=	$1.19m
Strays					1.596x	=	$1.76m

 

Comp average: $1.51m

 

The Exorcist: Believer							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-14	20	74	0	7	71	15,606	0.45%
T-13	20	74	0	11	82	15,606	0.53%
T-12	20	74	0	3	85	15,606	0.54%
T-11	20	74	0	6	91	15,606	0.58%
T-10	20	74	0	9	100	15,606	0.64%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.549x	=	$1.70m
Barbie					0.061x	=	$1.29m
Asteroid City					1.149x	=	$1.26m
Strays					1.515x	=	$1.67m

 

Comp average: $1.48m. Still too early for any proper horror comps, coming soon.

[TheFlatLannister]

16 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Saw X							OK
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-7	21	55	0	55	55	8,401	0.65%
T-6	21	55	0	33	88	8,401	1.05%
T-5	21	55	0	14	102	8,401	1.21%
T-4	21	55	0	26	128	8,401	1.52%
T-3	21	55	0	41	169	8,401	2.01%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.914x	=	$4.57m
Talk To Me					3.189x	=	$3.97m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.671x	=	$2.15m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					3.073x	=	$2.30m
The Nun II					1.142x	=	$3.54m
Expend4bles					2.864x	=	$2.15m

 

Comp average: $3.11m

wow this is really good 

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-23	20	163	0	59	11,175	28,984	38.56%
T-22	20	163	0	36	11,211	28,984	38.68%
T-21	20	163	0	43	11,254	28,984	38.83%
T-20	20	163	0	47	11,301	28,984	38.99%
T-19	20	163	0	38	11,339	28,984	39.12%

 

MTC1: 6,684/11,422 - 58.5% sold - 2.0% growth

MTC2: 1,777/6,420 - 27.7% sold - 2.0% growth

MTC3: 2,011/6,396 - 31.4% sold - 2.4% growth

Other: 867/7,449 - 11.6% sold - 8.2% growth

 

T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.147x	=	$24.20m
Oppenheimer					2.329x	=	$24.45m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.760x	=	$27.07m
T-19 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					22.017x	=	$24.22m

 

Saturday (+7(.5) days of sales)

328 showings (+5)

6,619 total sold (+319)

58.4% of Friday (previously 57.2%)

 

Saturday still slightly outpacing Friday here but again not by much, to be expected I think considering current capacity.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour							OK
Friday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-22	20	163	0	36	11,211	28,984	38.68%
T-21	20	163	0	43	11,254	28,984	38.83%
T-20	20	163	0	47	11,301	28,984	38.99%
T-19	20	163	0	38	11,339	28,984	39.12%
T-18	20	163	0	49	11,388	28,984	39.29%
T-0 Comps (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie					1.152x	=	$24.30m
Oppenheimer					2.339x	=	$24.56m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					3.776x	=	$27.19m
T-18 Comp (not ATP adjusted)
Barbie (EA)					21.527x	=	$23.68m

[DAJK]

Paw Patrol is a TV show adaptation, and frankly one that has its own "rabid" fanbase of 6 year olds. I could see it being slightly more pre-sale heavy than comparable family movies. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I am happy to see KOTFM off to a good start, but I am still gonna tread with caution on whether it’ll go higher than my 30M OW prediction. Still, very good to see this.