The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 5334/62850 (247 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.8M

2.81x Oppenheimer - $26.25M (Adj for ATP)
1.16x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.40x Eternals - $22.8M

2.24x The Flash - $21.7M

Still growing for Barbie comp. LOL.

Friday - 2081/61868 (241 showings)

 

Comps
0.64x Barbie - $30.9M

1.82x The Flash - $26.6M

 

Pretty Great result. I am obviously over-indexing for this which does happen at times for horror films but still LOL. The usual overindexing should still see these comps around $17-18M for THU. 
 

Amazing. 6-8x IM would put it at a $102-144M opening weekend

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Amazing. 6-8x IM would put it at a $102-144M opening weekend

I am not buying it yet. Its just over indexing bit time at that market. There is nothing we have seen numbers across the board that screams that big an OW. Just not happening. 

 

Anyway

Five nights at Freddys MTC2 previews - 32893/264892 436144.03 1701 shows. 

 

Added about 7K tickets over 6 days. Solid but dont forget this will have lower than norm ATP(around 10% or more). So have to take that into account. 

[HummingLemon496]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not buying it yet. Its just over indexing bit time at that market. There is nothing we have seen numbers across the board that screams that big an OW. Just not happening. 

 

Anyway

Five nights at Freddys MTC2 previews - 32893/264892 436144.03 1701 shows. 

 

Added about 7K tickets over 6 days. Solid but dont forget this will have lower than norm ATP(around 10% or more). So have to take that into account. 

Yeah that's true. No IMAX. But I'm still hoping for $100M+ so @Bob Train and @Relevation are correct

[Hilts]

On 10/9/2023 at 9:23 PM, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	21	82	81	1,431	15,266	9.37%	6.00%
T-13	21	82	114	1,545	15,266	10.12%	7.97%
T-12	21	82	69	1,614	15,266	10.57%	4.47%
T-11	21	82	60	1,674	15,266	10.97%	3.72%
T-10	21	82	137	1,811	15,266	11.86%	8.18%
MTC1	8	32	+61	792	5,897	13.43%	8.34%
MTC2	4	18	+29	345	3,132	11.02%	9.18%
MTC3	3	18	+26	470	3,798	12.37%	5.86%
Other	6	14	+21	204	2,439	8.36%	11.48%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.518x	=	$15.94m
Barbie					0.793x	=	$17.60m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					2.411x	=	$21.22m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.757x	=	$18.44m
Sound of Freedom					1.306x	=	$6.79m

 

Great day. Unless I have time I will probably swap this one out for the Marvels from tomorrow and bring back in once Taylor is out.

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	25	94	183	1,994	16,611	12.00%	10.10%
T-8	25	99	129	2,123	17,347	12.24%	6.47%
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
MTC1	8	32	+31	1,004	5,897	17.03%	3.19%
MTC2	4	18	+23	478	3,132	15.26%	5.05%
MTC3	3	26	+34	685	5,060	13.54%	5.22%
Other	10	24	+30	419	3,840	10.91%	7.71%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.303x	=	$13.69m
Barbie					0.620x	=	$13.77m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.920x	=	$13.82m
Sound of Freedom					1.239x	=	$6.44m

 

Despite the locale it would still be a feat if this were to outperform Oppenheimer here.

[abracadabra1998]

3 minutes ago, Hilts said:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	25	94	183	1,994	16,611	12.00%	10.10%
T-8	25	99	129	2,123	17,347	12.24%	6.47%
T-7	25	100	183	2,306	17,929	12.86%	8.62%
T-6	25	100	162	2,468	17,929	13.77%	7.03%
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
MTC1	8	32	+31	1,004	5,897	17.03%	3.19%
MTC2	4	18	+23	478	3,132	15.26%	5.05%
MTC3	3	26	+34	685	5,060	13.54%	5.22%
Other	10	24	+30	419	3,840	10.91%	7.71%
Comps
Oppenheimer					1.303x	=	$13.69m
Barbie					0.620x	=	$13.77m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.920x	=	$13.82m
Sound of Freedom					1.239x	=	$6.44m

 

Despite the locale it would still be a feat if this were to outperform Oppenheimer here.

I would be crying tears of joys if every market looked like yours, but alas. MSP is showing $3.5 M at the moment, which wouldn’t be bad either

[Hilts]

On 10/9/2023 at 9:28 PM, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-21	16	67	73	650	11,157	5.83%	12.65%
T-20	16	72	50	700	11,880	5.89%	7.69%
T-19	19	83	67	767	13,196	5.81%	9.57%
T-18	19	83	34	801	13,196	6.07%	4.43%
T-17	19	83	43	844	13,196	6.40%	5.37%
MTC1	7	21	+15	387	2,213	17.49%	4.03%
MTC2	4	29	+6	163	4,653	3.50%	3.82%
MTC3	3	20	+12	220	4,277	5.14%	5.77%
Other	5	13	+10	74	2,053	3.60%	15.63%
Comps
Asteroid City					13.188x	=	$14.51m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.648x	=	$14.51m
Barbie					0.630x	=	$13.98m
Haunted Mansion					8.525x	=	$26.43m
Oppenheimer					1.085x	=	$11.39m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.047x	=	$7.54m
Killers of the Flower Moon					0.755x

 

I know the Haunted Mansion comp looks a little out there but it should start coming back down to earth tomorrow.

 

Think this is the last day before the Barbenheimer effect so I expect those should drop in the coming days too.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	20	86	50	894	13,364	6.69%	5.92%
T-15	20	95	46	940	14,252	6.60%	5.15%
T-14	20	95	39	979	14,252	6.87%	4.15%
T-13	20	95	71	1,050	14,252	7.37%	7.25%
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
MTC1	7	21	+27	468	2,213	21.15%	6.12%
MTC2	4	38	+12	231	5,541	4.17%	5.48%
MTC3	3	20	+12	295	4,277	6.90%	4.24%
Other	6	16	+3	110	2,221	4.95%	2.80%
Comps
Asteroid City					13.463x	=	$14.81m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.633x	=	$14.37m
Barbie					0.585x	=	$13.00m
Haunted Mansion					7.311x	=	$22.66m
Oppenheimer					1.055x	=	$11.08m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.143x	=	$8.23m

 

Very little change in comps in the last 5 days, impressed it's still keeping up.

 

Don't understand who is buying these tickets as surely the fanatics purchased as soon as they were available but demand is clearly still there.

 

MTC2 added even more shows, still waiting on action from MTC1.

[Hilts]

After Death							OK
Thursday - showings starting 5pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-16	9	17	2	45	1,742	2.58%	4.65%
T-15	9	17	2	47	1,742	2.70%	4.44%
T-14	9	17	4	51	1,742	2.93%	8.51%
T-13	9	17	10	61	1,742	3.50%	19.61%
T-12	9	17	2	63	1,742	3.62%	3.28%
MTC1	3	5	0	13	460	2.83%	0.00%
MTC2	2	4	0	11	392	2.81%	0.00%
MTC3	3	6	+2	39	784	4.97%	5.41%
Other	1	2	0	0	106	0.00%	0.00%

 

Yeah really don't have anything appropriate here to compare with.

 

But very vaguely this is looking at ~$1m or less based on similar daily sales at this stage of the cycle. I understand they are doing the pay it forward with this also which may skew things somewhat. Direct comp with Sound of Freedom only gives $250k which may be accurate, maybe not.

[Hilts]

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-30	19	167	258	258	31,972	0.81%	-
T-29	21	173	70	328	32,650	1.00%	27.13%
T-28	21	173	45	373	32,650	1.14%	13.72%
T-27	21	173	15	388	32,650	1.19%	4.02%
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
MTC1	8	59	+4	215	10,485	2.05%	1.90%
MTC2	4	48	0	43	8,204	0.52%	0.00%
MTC3	3	39	+6	123	8,077	1.52%	5.13%
Other	6	27	0	17	5,884	0.29%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.748x	=	$5.39m
Barbie					0.525x	=	$11.66m
Oppenheimer					0.667x	=	$7.00m
Haunted Mansion					5.528x	=	$17.14m

 

MCU comp-free-zone. Think I'm in the right ballpark though since this is not really performing like an MCU title.

 

Bonus comps vs their first 5 days of sales (that had shorter windows):

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.452x	=	$8.13m
Blue Beetle					3.134x	=	$10.34m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.612x

[Hilts]

Wish							OK
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm

 

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-38	17	76	13	13	12,314	0.11%

 

MTC1	7	28		13	3,970	0.33%
MTC2	4	23		0	3,687	0.00%
MTC3	3	14		0	2,590	0.00%
Other	3	11		0	2,067	0.00%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.217x	=	$0.67m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.382x	=	$1.47m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.081x	=	$0.59m

 

These are after at least first full day of sales. Tricky to say this far out and I only have Indy and Oppy for daily comps for a while so may only provide periodic updates until we get a bit closer. Will be able to look at Trolls in a few days though. TMNT should be doubly useful being a Tuesday release too as well as younger skewing but we shall see.

 

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Hilts

[Hilts]

On 10/7/2023 at 9:24 PM, Hilts said:

 

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-59	17	56	78	303	12,333	2.46%	34.67%
T-58	17	57	36	339	12,432	2.73%	11.88%
T-57	17	57	22	361	12,432	2.90%	6.49%
T-56	17	57	10	371	12,432	2.98%	2.77%
T-55	17	58	9	380	12,530	3.03%	2.43%
MTC1	7	19	+8	270	3,910	6.91%	3.05%
MTC2	4	21	0	31	3,975	0.78%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	+1	44	3,518	1.25%	2.33%
Other	3	4	0	35	1,127	3.11%	0.00%
Day 1 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour					0.062x

 

Friday (+5 days of sales)

131 showings (+9)

295 total sold (+128)

77.6% of Thursday (previously 74.2%)

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-52	17	58	3	389	12,530	3.10%	0.78%
T-51	18	59	3	392	12,627	3.10%	0.77%
T-50	18	59	-1	391	12,627	3.10%	-0.26%
T-49	18	59	7	398	12,627	3.15%	1.79%
T-48	18	59	2	400	12,627	3.17%	0.50%
MTC1	7	19	0	280	3,910	7.16%	0.00%
MTC2	4	21	0	29	3,975	0.73%	0.00%
MTC3	3	14	+2	47	3,518	1.34%	4.44%
Other	4	5	0	44	1,224	3.59%	0.00%
T-0 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Thursday)					0.446x	=	$1.25m
Day 1 Comp
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour (Friday)					0.065x	=	$2.36m

[Dreamss]

Guys is it possible for Renaissance to do $50 million opening weekend (including Thursday)?

[Giorno]

10 minutes ago, Dreamss said:

Guys is it possible for Renaissance to do $50 million opening weekend (including Thursday)?

Highly unlikely 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	610	25536	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(0.275x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.88M THUR Previews

(0.398x) of Mi7 ~$2.79M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.84M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	633	25536	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.250x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.63M Previews

(0.395x) of Mi7 ~$2.78M Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.71M 

Edited October 14, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[XXR & Friends]

19 minutes ago, Dreamss said:

Guys is it possible for Renaissance to do $50 million opening weekend (including Thursday)?

 

No. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2527	32508	7.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

131

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.076x) of Flash $10.44M THUR Previews

(0.758x) of ATSV $13.15M THUR Previews

(1.748x) of Fast X $13.11M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $12.23M

 

*For fun*

(0.858x) of Barbie $18.10M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	2616	32508	8.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(1.073x) of Flash $10.40M Previews

(0.759x) of ATSV $13.16M Previews

(1.787x) of Fast X $13.40M Previews

Comps AVG: $12.32M

 

*For fun*

(0.809x) of Barbie $17.06M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/13/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1893	50028	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-27

 

(0.472x) of GOTG3~$8.27M THUR Previews

(1.193x) of Indy 5~$8.59M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.43M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
251	1957	50028	3.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

64

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-26

 

(0.471x) of GOTG3~$8.23M THUR Previews

(1.214x) of Indy 5~$8.74M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $8.49M

[abracadabra1998]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	633	25536	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(0.250x) of Oppenheimer ~$2.63M Previews

(0.395x) of Mi7 ~$2.78M Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $2.71M 

I wonder if MSP is overindexing, if Orlando is underindexing, or a mix of both. Your updates for this have been consistently lower than mine. And well, we all know how Oklahoma is doing…

 

(this is my not so subtle way of nudging @Porthos to track this, at least a little Q&D. Give the people what they want!)

[TheFlatLannister]

21 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-39

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	155	26289	0.59%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

95

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.140x) of Ruby Gilman~$826k TUE Previews

(0.448x) of Elemental~$1.08M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $953k 

 

*Kind of forgot about this lol*

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-38

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	250	26289	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

95

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

nothing lol

 

Much better day 2

Edited October 14, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I wonder if MSP is overindexing, if Orlando is underindexing, or a mix of both. Your updates for this have been consistently lower than mine. And well, we all know how Oklahoma is doing…

 

(this is my not so subtle way of nudging @Porthos to track this, at least a little Q&D. Give the people what they want!)

 

I mean, "be careful what you wish for", and all that.

 

posted this at T-7:

 

On 10/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, Porthos said:

Other things which I didn't have time to get to....

 

 

 

Quick and Dirty Killers of the Flower Moon Sacto Check [T-7]

425/7469 (5.69% sold) [+40 tickets] 55 showtimes

 

0.69332x Nope at T-7              [4.44m]

0.22158x Oppenheimer at T-7 [2.33m]

 

Might check again at T-3, might not.  See where it goes and what other interesting comps I might have come to mind.

 

and it didn't meaningfully change last night.  

 

KOTFM T-6:

446/7469 (5.97% sold) [+21 tickets]

 

.65492x Nope at T-6               [4.19m]

.21535x Oppenheimer at T-6 [2.26m]

 

Unsurprisingly the Nope comp fell to 4.19m while the Oppenheimer comp (as unsuitable as it is — more on this below) more or less stayed flat at 2.26m.

 

While Oppenheimer should be a natural, and indeed perhaps ideal, comp, the situation surrounding it makes it... suspect.  Nationally you had the meme-tastic factor.  Locally, one of the biggest screen crunches I have seen for a film that wasn't a blockbuster, sellout, or other type of weird monster.  Hell, we just saw how Oppenheimer + ATP adj was the sole movie I had which even came close to correctly forecasting TET Friday (curious to see the Fri Actuals, in fact).  

 

KOTFM is many things, but something along those lines it isn't.  Locally at least.

 

Now the tale of this particular tape very likely isn't gonna get written until MTW, or T-3 or so, but gun to my head probs looking somewhere in the mid-3s right now.  But I have so few of these types of films recently (that I kept data on), it's hard to say.   Could break out, could just sit there.

 

Might dig into older thread to find my Creed 3 info that I posted on BOT, as unsuitable as that might be.  Could be a couple of other films as well.

 

...

 

Will say I am leaning to posting Q&D data here, yes.  But as I implied, probs starting on Monday Night (T-3).  

[Dreamss]

2 hours ago, Giorno said:

Highly unlikely 

What about $40 million? It’s insane that it’s going to do way less than Eras. I was expecting it to do at least half of Eras. A streaming service release would have been more dignified