The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-4: 47.55% Awareness

What Happens Later T-11: 22.35%

Thanksgiving T-25: 34.69%

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-25: 44.31%

Napoleon T-30: 24.41%

Underdoggs T-95: 21.17%

 

Freelance T-4: 30.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla Minus One T-39: 20.72% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce T-39: 20.85% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 40M, 2% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

The Iron Claw T-60: 15.94% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[Jake4]

1 hour ago, Eric Mouse said:

Quorum Updates

Five Nights at Freddy's T-4: 47.55% Awareness

What Happens Later T-11: 22.35%

Thanksgiving T-25: 34.69%

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-25: 44.31%

Napoleon T-30: 24.41%

Underdoggs T-95: 21.17%

 

Freelance T-4: 30.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla Minus One T-39: 20.72% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce T-39: 20.85% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 40M, 2% chance of 80M

Low Awareness: 35% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

The Iron Claw T-60: 15.94% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Is it likely renaissance is debuting at no 1 when it comes out? and could it hit close to 30 million or more than 30m. Thanks

[keysersoze123]

On 10/21/2023 at 10:44 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's

Previews - 70412/379213 1033211.54 2537 shows

Friday - 101931/447954 1506274.03 2927 shows

 

Friday is motoring along. Almost 11K tickets sold over past day. Previews is less relative to friday but that will amp up as well. Sunday should see big boost from Saturday. 

Five Night at Freddy's

Previews - 77829/381912 1145847.87 2556 shows

Friday - 114909/447601 1696214.93 2923 shows

 

We are now at final stretch. Let us see how it accelerates from this point. Its preview pace is lower than Venom 2 years ago. That said this is going to under index here. Its strong everywhere else as well. 

[DAJK]

FNAF tickets are only on sale for Thursday around here (weekend won’t go on sale until late tonight/tomorrow). And there are two things that are blowing me away.

 

1) the sheer number of tickets being sold. You would think this is a Marvel movie in the 2016-2019 era. 
 

2) the PACE is not letting up! This didn’t have a big first day and then taper off. Sales are steady, and the numbers keep going up and up and up.

[Tinalera]

Five Nights at Freddys 

Thurs Oct 26 and Fri Oct 27

Toronto Ontario

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	12	878	3902	4780	0.1836
Fri	3	14	245	3843	4088	0.0599

Edited October 23, 2023 by Tinalera

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Five Nights at Freddys 

Thurs Oct 26 and Fri Oct 27

Toronto Ontario

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	12	878	3902	4780	0.1836
Fri	3	14	245	3843	4088	0.0599

 

41 minutes ago, DAJK said:

FNAF tickets are only on sale for Thursday around here (weekend won’t go on sale until late tonight/tomorrow). And there are two things that are blowing me away.

 

1) the sheer number of tickets being sold. You would think this is a Marvel movie in the 2016-2019 era. 
 

2) the PACE is not letting up! This didn’t have a big first day and then taper off. Sales are steady, and the numbers keep going up and up and up.

 

Glad to see the overindexing I'm seeing is a bit more national, than just being isolated to my local sets.

 

I agree with @DAJK that it feels more Marvel than anything else.

 

I asked my 10 year old last night if he knows why FNAF might be more popular in Canada than the US, but he didn't have any theories. All the top YouTubers that focus on it are American he says.

 

From what I am seeing, suburb markets are outperforming urban markets. I had the same observations on ATSV when it was doing well locally. But, @Tinalera numbers show pretty good strength, and my recollection is that the sample there usually represents the urban areas well.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its preview pace is lower than Venom 2 years ago.

Wouldn't that be true except for Minions and maybe Barbie? Venom 2 is a very high bar

 

Pace from T-11 from T-4 is very strong, but also had some catching up to do.  Seems like ~200K (+/- 10K) is a good final target, and with an underindex, still in the $11-$12M+ range

[Giorno]

FNAF is our last chance at a 100m OW this year

[Boxofficerules]

When will we start getting reactions to FNAF? There has been nothing so far.

[tdangie]

5 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

When will we start getting reactions to FNAF? There has been nothing so far.

We'll get some of them on the 25th when it releases in the UK (+ reactions from the Mexican fans if anyone speaks spanish hehe)

[Boxofficerules]

7 minutes ago, tdangie said:

We'll get some of them on the 25th when it releases in the UK (+ reactions from the Mexican fans if anyone speaks spanish hehe)

Normally you would have heard something by now, even whispers.

[Austin]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Normally you would have heard something by now, even whispers.

Probably keeping it zip tight until embargo.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Wouldn't that be true except for Minions and maybe Barbie? Venom 2 is a very high bar

 

Pace from T-11 from T-4 is very strong, but also had some catching up to do.  Seems like ~200K (+/- 10K) is a good final target, and with an underindex, still in the $11-$12M+ range

True. But this looked like a juggernaut and so I was expecting it to behave like that. That said it has issues with simultaneous streaming and universal almost trying to nuke it. 

[TheFlatLannister]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does it include early shows on 11/4? 

no

 

16 hours ago, Relevation said:

That Elemental comp is gonna be freakishly huge out of the gate because of the 9 extra days lol

 

Any chance you have a Haunted Mansion comp on hand?

HM overindexed a lot here so I'm not sure if it will be the ideal comp, but I can try. 

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

 

Glad to see the overindexing I'm seeing is a bit more national, than just being isolated to my local sets.

 

I agree with @DAJK that it feels more Marvel than anything else.

 

I asked my 10 year old last night if he knows why FNAF might be more popular in Canada than the US, but he didn't have any theories. All the top YouTubers that focus on it are American he says.

 

From what I am seeing, suburb markets are outperforming urban markets. I had the same observations on ATSV when it was doing well locally. But, @Tinalera numbers show pretty good strength, and my recollection is that the sample there usually represents the urban areas well.

Might just be one of those things were Canada is doing "Canada things" when it comes to films. I do know that FNAF IP is pretty popular up here. I can certainly see the Marvel comparison in that it doesnt "feel" like a horror film (to me anyway). Just feels like its own thing, something a little different, and perhaps Canadian filmgoers are digging that maybe.

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

no

 

HM overindexed a lot here so I'm not sure if it will be the ideal comp, but I can try. 

Interesting. Early shows will take away sales from previews. I dont have any numbers but there are quite a few shows at MTC1 overall for 4th. 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-17):

 

642 tickets sold ar 10 Houston AMC's/ +8 YD

 

Comp:

0.713 x (D-17) Oppenheimer = $7.49m

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting. Early shows will take away sales from previews. I dont have any numbers but there are quite a few shows at MTC1 overall for 4th. 

153 seats sold over 6 showings EA. Scraper took those numbers at 1:18pm

 

VS 

 

230 seats sold on Thursday from yesterday's run

[M37]

A pre-release Saturday show is more of an old-school sneak preview than a now more common weekday of release EA, in that’s it’s mostly pulling from a different (weekend) audience than a Thursday evening preview 

 

In the long run it’s probably best to count those sales as a separate value, rather than part of the total preview sales, even if the Th only number is then reduced against comps in the early sales period

 

 

[keysersoze123]

 

 

 

I thunk Disney is now dumping this. With SAG strike unlikely to be resolved that quickly barring something magical and late embargo on top of really meh PS, I dont see what is a catalyst that is going to change the course.