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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR vs XXR,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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Zakiyyah6 Blockbuster

Zakiyyah6

Posted
Posted

I disagree that a fresh rating would have saved The Marvels. It needed legit good reviews not just a 61-63% on RT. Like an 85 on RT with a 7/10 average and a 70 on Metacritic. A mere fresh rating didn't save Flash and it won't save this film. The interest is too low for that to happen. 

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James Summer Tentpole

James

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jking123 said:

Wait hold on a sec...is there really a chance this gets sub 50million opening weekend domestic? Thats insane.

No. It’s LIKELY it gets under 50m. The kicker is there’s a chance it gets under 40m. This movie is like a perfect storm of doom.

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

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Also, for anyone that might think I'm being extra negative or is maybe just new to BOT and visiting from... other corners... please know that I am a huge Marvel fan, I still have my tickets for this weekend, and I take no pleasure in having to talk about such scary numbers.

 

But, uh...

 

CdTa8RYGXDISj3DF.jpg

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Bob Train Box Office Gold

Bob Train

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-marvels-and-journey-to-bethlehem/

 

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 12 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Marvels Disney & Marvel Studios $42,200,000 $42,200,000 ~4,000 NEW
Five Nights at Freddy’s Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $7,600,000 $125,600,000 ~3,600 -60%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films $7,000,000 $173,800,000 ~3,000 -49%
Killers of the Flower Moon Paramount Pictures & Apple $5,000,000 $60,100,000 ~3,300 -27%
Journey to Bethlehem Sony Pictures & AFFIRM Films $4,000,000 $4,000,000 ~2,000 NEW
Priscilla A24 $3,600,000 $11,200,000 ~2,200 -29%
The Holdovers Focus Features $2,300,000 $3,400,000 ~900 305%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Paramount Pictures $1,600,000 $64,300,000 ~1,900 -21%
Radical Pantelion Films $1,400,000 $4,900,000 ~575 -47%
The Exorcist: Believer Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $1,300,000 $65,200,000 ~1,700 -38%
Edited by Bob Train
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted

BTW trades are useless. HR is still thinking 60-65m !!! They just report what studio says and normally studio tends to be conservative, here they dont want to be realistic !!!

 

FYI I tried to see if there is any "review boost". So far things are looking anemic. That said let us wait until EOD. More than MTC1 where its not looking that bad, Its other MTC which have to show better numbers. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 360 3219 11.18%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 277 2542 10.90%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1548 209 27582 5.61% 13 145

 

0.881 The Flash T-2 8.54M
0.420 AtSV T-2 7.29M
0.343 Guardians 3 T-2 6.01M
0.621 Eternals T-2 5.90M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 399 3221 12.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 320 2542 12.59%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1780 232 27969 6.36% 13 150

 

0.855 The Flash T-1 8.30M
0.382 AtSV T-1 6.64M
0.346 Guardians 3 T-1 6.05M
0.622 Eternals T-1 5.91M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 3:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Thursday 267 Showings 5914 +750 35711 ATP: 16.94
1.021 The Flash T-2 9.90M
0.562 AtSV T-2 9.76M
0.385 Guardians 3 T-2 6.73M
0.829 Eternals T-2 7.88M

 

T-3 Friday 385 Showings 6584 +1029 53135 ATP: 16.59
1.462 The Flash T-3 21.64M
0.652 AtSV T-3 22.50M
0.424 Guardians 3 T-3 12.96M
0.879 Eternals T-3 18.75M

 

T-4 Saturday 387 Showings 5526 +777 53855 ATP: 15.74
1.463 The Flash T-4 22.96M
0.623 AtSV T-4 23.31M
0.322 Guardians 3 T-4 12.53M
0.765 Eternals T-4 18.44M

 

T-5 Sunday 365 Showings 2830 +409 50610 ATP: 15.49
1.253 The Flash T-5 19.43M
0.489 AtSV T-5 15.29M
0.282 Guardians 3 T-5 8.88M
0.644 Eternals T-5 10.51M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-1 Thursday 269 Showings 6751 +837 35959 ATP: 16.88
0.977 The Flash T-1 9.47M
0.519 AtSV T-1 9.01M
0.392 Guardians 3 T-1 6.86M
0.854 Eternals T-1 8.11M

 

T-2 Friday 400 Showings 8068 +1484 54517 ATP: 16.46
1.468 The Flash T-2 21.73M
0.626 AtSV T-2 21.58M
0.451 Guardians 3 T-2 13.80M
0.926 Eternals T-2 19.76M

 

T-3 Saturday 397 Showings 6518 +992 54728 ATP: 15.62
1.443 The Flash T-3 22.66M
0.586 AtSV T-3 21.93M
0.331 Guardians 3 T-3 12.86M
0.788 Eternals T-3 19.01M

 

T-4 Sunday 374 Showings 3321 +491 51453 ATP: 15.42
1.120 The Flash T-4 17.36M
0.484 AtSV T-4 15.11M
0.288 Guardians 3 T-4 9.05M
0.675 Eternals T-4 11.02M
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 3:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Thursday 189 Showings 2000 +347 28183
0.789 The Flash T-2 7.65M
0.507 AtSV T-2 8.80M

 

T-3 Friday 342 Showings 2096 +529 49046
1.135 The Flash T-3 16.80M
0.470 AtSV T-3 16.21M

 

T-4 Saturday 342 Showings 1756 +439 49799
1.228 The Flash T-4 19.28M
0.702 AtSV T-4 26.24M

 

T-5 Sunday 290 Showings 695 +151 43953
0.864 The Flash T-5 13.40M
0.685 AtSV T-5 21.42M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-1 Thursday 205 Showings 2340 +340 29265
0.739 The Flash T-1 7.17M
0.436 AtSV T-1 7.57M

 

T-2 Friday 370 Showings 2792 +696 51784
1.175 The Flash T-2 17.38M
0.469 AtSV T-2 16.18M

 

T-3 Saturday 375 Showings 2307 +551 52703
1.295 The Flash T-3 20.33M
0.682 AtSV T-3 25.50M

 

T-4 Sunday 330 Showings 880 +185 47843
0.806 The Flash T-4 12.49M
0.612 AtSV T-4 19.12M
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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I agree but we probably disagree on what’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th

Put me down for Wonka, The Color Purple, and Wish/THG (can’t decide) respectively. 
 

Edit: eh, put me down for Wish, still don’t think THG can go too high even with WOM

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vafrow Box Office Gold

vafrow

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/7/2023 at 6:45 PM, vafrow said:

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-9, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 179

New sales: 31

Growth: 20.9%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 19

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.454x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.545x T:ROTB for $4.8M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis (tickets sold/showtimes= tickets per showtime)

Avg: 9.4

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 15.8

Late Evening: 4.3

 

By format:

Regular: 4.0

Dolby: 9.9

VIP: 17.0

IMAX: 8.5

4DX: 6.5

 

Growth jumped back up to 20%.

 

Theres new showtimes being added today, but I tried to do the count before that to not mess things up. I'll try and update impact on showtimes tomorrow.

 

Hunger Games Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 193

New sales: 14

Growth: 7.8%

Theatres: 5 out of 5

Showtimes: 21

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.476x of Marvels for ??

 

Single theatre comps

0.300x T:ROTB for $2.6M

1.200x IJ:DoD for $8.6M

Avg: $6.7M

 

Tickets per showtime analysis 

Avg: 9.2

 

By timing:

Late Afternoon: 1.8

Early Evening: 17.3

Late Evening: 3.8

 

By format:

Regular: 4.0

Dolby: 10.4

VIP: 11.8

IMAX: 9.3

4DX: 6.0

 

Not really a great day. It only got two showtimes added with the new schedules. Growth was under 10% for the first time, and actually caused tickets per showtime to go down.

 

It needs to average 22% growth to catch Marvels as of my last update. Even with good reviews and positive word of mouth, I'm not sure if it can do it. But, it probably can count on better walk ups and IM to get it past tje line. Still, I'd like to see it doing better.

 

Edited by vafrow
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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 10:50 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $16.18
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-6 25 193 83 900 34,228 2.63% 10.16%
T-5 25 193 30 930 34,228 2.72% 3.33%
T-4 25 193 29 959 34,228 2.80% 3.12%
T-3 25 196 111 1,070 34,589 3.09% 11.57%
T-2 25 230 194 1,264 37,761 3.35% 18.13%
 
MTC1 8 62 +52 551 11,148 4.94% 10.42%
MTC2 4 49 +47 198 8,320 2.38% 31.13%
MTC3 3 44 +48 371 8,679 4.27% 14.86%
Other 10 75 +47 144 9,614 1.50% 48.45%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.709x = $5.10m
Barbie 0.199x = $4.43m
Oppenheimer 0.436x = $4.58m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 0.757x = $6.66m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.989x = $5.54m
Five Nights at Freddy's 0.505x = $5.20m

 

Matinee: 5.38%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 52.37%

 

Comp average: $5.25m

 

Phew busy day whilst everyone sorts out final sets. Increased against Indy and FNAF. I would guess $5.5m-$6m for now if it continues that trend.

 

The Marvels OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $16.00
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 25 193 30 930 34,228 2.72% 3.33%
T-4 25 193 29 959 34,228 2.80% 3.12%
T-3 25 196 111 1,070 34,589 3.09% 11.57%
T-2 25 230 194 1,264 37,761 3.35% 18.13%
T-1 25 231 270 1,534 37,859 4.05% 21.36%
 
MTC1 8 63 +109 660 11,246 5.87% 19.78%
MTC2 4 49 +54 252 8,320 3.03% 27.27%
MTC3 3 44 +65 436 8,679 5.02% 17.52%
Other 10 75 +42 186 9,614 1.93% 29.17%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.750x = $5.40m
Barbie 0.205x = $4.54m
Oppenheimer 0.451x = $4.73m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 0.719x = $6.33m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 1.022x = $5.72m
Five Nights at Freddy's 0.499x = $5.14m

 

Matinee: 6.00%

3D: 10.43%

PLF: 48.76%

 

Comp average: $5.31m

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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 10:54 PM, Hilts said:
Journey to Bethlehem OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $10.76
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-6 11 36 6 27 4,750 0.57% 28.57%
T-5 11 36 2 29 4,750 0.61% 7.41%
T-4 11 36 7 36 4,750 0.76% 24.14%
T-3 11 37 8 44 4,811 0.91% 22.22%
T-2 17 55 9 53 6,181 0.86% 20.45%
 
MTC1 4 14 +4 15 1,738 0.86% 36.36%
MTC2 3 12 0 6 1,260 0.48% 0.00%
MTC3 3 12 +3 26 1,524 1.71% 13.04%
Other 7 17 +2 6 1,659 0.36% 50.00%
 
Comps
Asteroid City 0.321x = $0.35m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 0.624x = $0.34m
After Death 0.361x = $0.14m
Priscilla 0.757x = $0.34m

 

Matinee: 30.19%

 

Comp average: $300k

 

Bit late to the party but not expecting much here. Pretty substantial matinee sales too so ATP also pretty low.

 

Journey to Bethlehem OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $10.82
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 11 36 2 29 4,750 0.61% 7.41%
T-4 11 36 7 36 4,750 0.76% 24.14%
T-3 11 37 8 44 4,811 0.91% 22.22%
T-2 17 55 9 53 6,181 0.86% 20.45%
T-1 17 56 10 63 6,245 1.01% 18.87%
 
MTC1 4 14 +5 20 1,738 1.15% 33.33%
MTC2 3 12 +3 9 1,260 0.71% 50.00%
MTC3 3 12 +2 28 1,524 1.84% 7.69%
Other 7 18 0 6 1,723 0.35% 0.00%
 
Comps
Asteroid City 0.303x = $0.33m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 0.583x = $0.32m
After Death 0.371x = $0.15m
Priscilla 0.851x = $0.38m

 

Matinee: 33.87%

 

Comp average: $300k

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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 11/5/2023 at 9:14 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together OK

 

Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $12.12
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-15 20 87 9 49 12,669 0.39% 22.50%
T-14 20 87 4 53 12,669 0.42% 8.16%
T-13 20 88 7 60 12,736 0.47% 13.21%
T-12 20 88 0 60 12,736 0.47% 0.00%
T-11 20 88 6 66 12,736 0.52% 10.00%
 
MTC1 7 25 -1 18 2,813 0.64% -5.26%
MTC2 4 27 +2 17 4,460 0.38% 13.33%
MTC3 3 12 0 14 2,536 0.55% 0.00%
Other 6 24 +5 17 2,927 0.58% 41.67%
 
Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.600x = $1.86m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.516x = $1.99m

 

Matinee: 22.73%

3D: 7.58%

 

Trolls Band Together OK
 

Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $11.33
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-12 20 88 0 60 12,736 0.47% 0.00%
T-11 20 88 6 66 12,736 0.52% 10.00%
T-10 20 91 2 68 12,971 0.52% 3.03%
T-9 24 104 5 73 14,080 0.52% 7.35%
T-8 24 106 19 92 14,269 0.64% 26.03%
 
MTC1 7 26 -4 19 2,895 0.66% -17.39%
MTC2 4 27 +18 35 4,460 0.78% 105.88%
MTC3 3 12 +5 19 2,536 0.75% 35.71%
Other 10 41 0 19 4,378 0.43% 0.00%
 
Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.643x = $1.99m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.495x = $1.90m

 

Matinee: 17.39%

3D: 5.43%

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Hilts Indie Sensation

Hilts

Posted
Posted
On 11/7/2023 at 10:58 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $15.14
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-13 20 84 94 436 15,838 2.75% 27.49%
T-12 20 84 58 494 15,838 3.12% 13.30%
T-11 20 84 75 569 15,838 3.59% 15.18%
T-10 20 88 96 665 16,237 4.10% 16.87%
T-9 24 101 112 777 17,663 4.40% 16.84%
 
MTC1 8 28 +36 348 5,040 6.90% 11.54%
MTC2 4 28 +10 130 4,176 3.11% 8.33%
MTC3 3 20 +25 181 5,355 3.38% 16.03%
Other 9 25 +41 118 3,092 3.82% 53.25%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.733x = $5.28m
Barbie 0.290x = $6.43m
Oppenheimer 0.577x = $6.06m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.575x = $5.92m
The Marvels 1.070x    

 

Matinee: 5.28%

3D: 1.54%

PLF: 32.95%

 

Comp average: $5.92m

 

Shuffled out some comps as were not particularly representative of this emerging beast. And overtook Marvels as expected. Now how much can it grow the gap.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $15.00
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-12 20 84 58 494 15,838 3.12% 13.30%
T-11 20 84 75 569 15,838 3.59% 15.18%
T-10 20 88 96 665 16,237 4.10% 16.87%
T-9 24 101 112 777 17,663 4.40% 16.84%
T-8 24 107 119 896 19,466 4.60% 15.32%
 
MTC1 8 30 +49 397 5,223 7.60% 14.08%
MTC2 4 30 +12 142 4,632 3.07% 9.23%
MTC3 3 20 +13 194 5,355 3.62% 7.18%
Other 9 27 +45 163 4,256 3.83% 38.14%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.818x = $5.89m
Barbie 0.297x = $6.59m
Oppenheimer 0.610x = $6.40m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.621x = $6.40m
The Marvels 1.155x    

 

Matinee: 5.02%

3D: 1.34%

PLF: 32.33%

 

Comp average: $6.32m

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