The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Krissykins]

Dreadful for both Marvels and Journey to Bethlehem 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	110	6654	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.320x) of Exorcist $911k Previews

Comps AVG: $911k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

288 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	118	6654	1.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.330x) of Exorcist $941k Previews

Comps AVG: $941k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

314 seats sold over 20 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	235	28317	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.486x) of KoTFM $1.26M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

Comps AVG: $1.26M

 

*MI7 comp because of discount Tuesday* 

(0.228x) of Mi7 $1.59M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	281	28317	0.99%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

46

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.576x) of KoTFM $1.50M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

(0.247x) of Mi7 $1.73M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	151	20993	0.72%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.268x) of Exorcist $764K Previews

(0.276x) of KoTFM $716K Previews

Comps AVG: $740k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	151	20993	0.72%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.248x) of Exorcist $644K Previews

(0.273x) of KoTFM $709K Previews

Comps AVG: $676k

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/7/2023 at 5:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	172	255	1803	27039	6.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1213	136	67.28
MTC1:		957	137	53.08
Marcus:		212	21	11.76
Alamo:		125	14	6.93
Other chains:		509	83	28.23

 

Comps:

0.47x Oppenheimer: $4.92 Million

1.01x Mission Impossible 7 (Tuesday): $7.09 Million

1.05x Indiana Jones 5: $7.57 Million

0.79x FNAF: $8.13 Million

0.29x Barbie (Just Thursday): $6.24 Million

 

Average: $6.79 Million

 

Lot of showtimes added today, took me a lot longer than usual to get everything together and counted. Anyways, it finally slowed down the bleeding, Barbie was the only comp that saw a significant drop. Very keen to see what the review effect is like.

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	51	20	67	4548	1.47

 

Comps:

0.29x After Death: $115k

0.54x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $300k

0.2x Asteroid City: $218k

 

Average: $211k

 

150-200k is my prediction and I am 97% sure they will not even report previews lol

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	189	366	2169	29347	7.39

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	20.3
3-Day:	56.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1406	193	64.82
MTC1:		1078	121	49.7
Marcus:		273	61	12.59
Alamo:		159	34	7.33
Other chains:		659	150	30.38

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.45x Oppenheimer: $4.71 Million (25%, 80%)

0.95x Mission Impossible 7 (Tuesday): $6.63 Million (28%, 69%)

1.09x Indiana Jones 5: $7.86 Million (16%, 65%)

0.81x FNAF: $8.35 Million (17%, 62%)

0.28x Barbie (Just Thursday): $5.98 Million (25%, 94%)

 

Average: $6.71 Million

 

Honestly? Not a terrible T-1, as it grew against Indy and FNAF. Obviously a bad final week against my comps, but this is a Marvel movie after all. No T-0 numbers from me, but without any idea of walk-ups and based on these growth rates I would go with a prediction around $6.3 Million, +/- 0.2. 

 

It does seem like my numbers are higher than some other markets on here though, so take it with a grain of salt (and plz don't call me out if I am completely wrong hehe)

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	350	31572	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.634x) of Elemental $1.52M Previews

(2.303x) of Ruby Gilman $1.67M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.60M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	371	31572	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

21

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.637x) of Elemental $1.53M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.53M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1487	34982	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

96

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.928x) of Fast X $6.96M Previews

(0.523x) of FNAF $5.39M Previews

(0.539x) of The Flash $5.23M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.86M

 

Still increasing against comps 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1581	34982	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

94

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.928x) of Fast X $6.96M Previews

(0.510x) of FNAF $5.25M Previews

(0.562x) of The Flash $5.45M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.89M

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	650	31936	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.419x) of Elemental $3.41M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

208 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	660	31936	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(1.378x) of Elemental $3.31M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

211 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
316	3382	64698	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

342

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.390x) of GOTG3 $6.82M Previews

Comps AVG: $6.82M

 

*Flash comp is at $8.14M* 

 

Ok, this was a pretty good day. I think it avoids falling below $6M for sure

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
323	3808	66017	5.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

426

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.406x) of GOTG3 $7.11M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.11M

 

*Flash comp is at $7.95M* 

 

Its recovering nicely despite the lackluster reviews. $7M+ doesn't seem out of reach imo  

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Its recovering nicely despite the lackluster reviews. $7M+ doesn't seem out of reach imo  

 

That's because The Marvels is about to hit fresh on RT and TOMATO LAW WILL NOT BE DENIED! 

[HummingLemon496]

Ok so I think it's gonna at the very least escape Shazam 2/Morbius territory. Thinking O/U $50M OW right now

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That's because The Marvels is about to hit fresh on RT and TOMATO LAW WILL NOT BE DENIED! 

People have really lost the art of parsing social reactions. I can't believe users thought 85%+ was possible based on the reactions we got yesterday. 50-60 sounded right based on the averageness of them.

[MovieMan89]

The tagline “higher, faster, further” for the movie about to post the biggest box office drop off in cinematic history is the most tragic twist of marketing irony of all time. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't care if it's from the comics, I hate that cheesy and cringe tagline so much. "Higher, Further, Faster" sounds like a dumb slogan for a multi-level marketing scheme. 

[M37]

Looking at today's numbers and pace overall, projections for final sales

• MTC1 = 130-135K (92K/133K officially)
• Orlando ~4500
• Sacto ~3800

Fwiw, these are all slightly higher than where I had them pegged at T-4

 

Factoring in over & under-indexes within range of comps, if these totals verify, should converge around ~$6.8M preview (maybe Disney rounds up to $7.0m but they usually don't under $15M). While a shock to many, OW is likely to wind up where tracking has had it for while, mid $40s range, maybe nudging up to $50M

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/7/2023 at 5:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	51	20	67	4548	1.47

 

Comps:

0.29x After Death: $115k

0.54x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $300k

0.2x Asteroid City: $218k

 

Average: $211k

 

150-200k is my prediction and I am 97% sure they will not even report previews lol

 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Journey to Bethlehem (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	54	13	80	4726	1.69

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	19.4
3-Day:	110.53

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.32x After Death: $129k (7%, 46%)

0.54x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $297k (20%, 85%)

0.17x Asteroid City: $185k (16%, 105%)

 

Average: $204k

 

Had one foot out the door as I was posting the Marvels numbers and didn't have time to post this, so doing it now (SAG deal? The Marvels pre-sales? That is BORING news compared to this!). I did do my count at the regular time, so I feel good about the growth rates and numbers. Anyways, let's say $200k, +/- 50, and call it a day. Might have potential to over perform in friendlier areas to the genre, which MSP is not.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 81163/781801 1569207.75 4238 shows +10544

Friday - 68310/1269579 1248100.24 6922 shows  +11796

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 92900/783347 1778477.62 4256 shows +11737

Friday - 81204/1266783 1465765.32 6914 shows +12894

 

 

Really meh increase as we had reactions/reviews over past 24 hours. I guess them being really meh did not help at all. I think @M37 has to be on the point on this. 

[Relevation]

Wish social reactions seem glowing to the point of being fake. Nothing negative in sight, could see a decent bump tomorrow.

[Taylor89]

8 hours ago, Relevation said:

I agree but we probably disagree on what’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th

 

Eras opened October 13 and only plays weekends, four so far. “There will be a week 5, a week 6, a week 7, a week 8,” said Aron

 

It will 200m DOM.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	266	31775	34162	2387	6.99%

 

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	1844
Total Seats Sold Today	354

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	60.69		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	37.24%		6.52m
GOTG3	33.20		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	22.20%		5.81m
TLM	60.10		435	3972		0/221	24918/28890	13.75%		6561	36.38%		6.19m
AtSV	44.18		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	24.50%		7.67m
Flash	84.59		409	2822		0/197	23670/26492	10.65%		5327	44.81%		8.20m
Indy 5	82.54		367	2892		0/169	21180/24072	12.01%		4767	50.07%		5.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     430/10683  [4.03% sold]
Matinee:    102/3173  [3.21% | 4.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:            180/5133  [3.51% | 7.54% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Huh.

 

...

 

Oh, maybe I should add something more than "Huh."?  Fair enough. 

 

No, I don't think nearly enough time has passed for any sort or reactions to have set in, as the vast majority of these sales should have been before 9pm my time.  Still...  Still I gotta say this exceeded my expectations today by more than a little.  Def seems to be trending back upward and I think this is before any real sort of reaction to social media reactions one way or the other. 

 

Still is an open question where the RT score will land, but right now, not only has The Marvels stopped the bleeding, it is gaining on the lower comps again. Enough so that 7m is back on the table?  Dunno as it's got lot of ground to make up.  Buuuut, well, let's see what Tomato Law has to say. 🙂

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	280	32550	35411	2861	8.08%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1249
Total Seats Sold Today	474

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	61.24		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	44.64%		6.58m
AM3	33.06		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	27.31%		5.79m
GOTG3	34.21		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	26.61%		5.99m
TLM	57.52		1002	4974		0/225	24182/29156	17.06%		6561	43.61%		5.92m
AtSV	40.67		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	29.36%		7.06m
Flash	79.10		795	3617		0/203	23257/26874	13.46%		5327	53.71%		7.67m
Indy 5	81.63		613	3505		0/184	21339/24844	14.11%		4767	60.02%		5.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     545/11569  [4.71% sold]
Matinee:    144/3326  [4.33% | 5.03% of all tickets sold]
3D:            225/5133  [4.38% | 7.86% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Was looking for a benchmark of about 500 tickets sold and came up a little short.  Still, not too terrible of a T-1, just not much to write home about.  Does look like comps coming out of Sacramento will probably clear 6m flat.  Might even be homing in on 6.5m though that's still a pretty tough hill to climb.  Do think we can kiss 7m adios though.

 

So not great, but still not Bottom Falling Out.

 

NB: L-O-L though at the number of showtimes. L-O-FUCKING-L, actually.  I get runtime means more shows can be screened and theaters are starved for content.  But sakes alive, folks.