The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, misterpepp said:

I.S.S. on sale Friday.

How about Argylle? I see shows listed but its still not on sale. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/2/2024 at 4:18 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	45	15	82	6420	1.28

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		41	5	50
MTC1:		59	11	71.95
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		10	2	12.2
Other chains:		13	2	15.85

 

Comps:

0.57x Thanksgiving: $575k

0.3x The Exorcist Believer: $855k

0.28x Insidious Red Door: $1.38 Million

0.8x Last Voyage of Demeter: $600k

0.65x Talk To Me*: $715k

 

*EA was never reported for this. The total reported was $1.245M, and I am assuming Thursday previews are ~1.1M since EA was pretty limited 

 

Average: $825K

 

Added a couple more original horror comps. Not feeling a ton of buzz for this but maybe a late push in sales could put this over 1 million for Thursday. Good news is I will be able to do a T-1 hour update for this one so I'll be able to give a little clearer picture of walk-ups!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	63	35	117	8014	1.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		59	18	50.43
MTC1:		82	23	70.09
Marcus:		2	2	1.71
Alamo:		12	2	10.26
Other chains:		21	8	17.95

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	42.68
3-Day:	125

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.66x Thanksgiving: $655k (24%, 89%)

0.35x The Exorcist Believer: $985k (24%, 73%)

0.29x Insidious Red Door: $1.44 Million (37%, 152%)

0.85x Last Voyage of Demeter: $635k (34%, 130%)

0.67x Talk To Me*: $740k (38%, 145%)

 

*EA was never reported for this. The total reported was $1.245M, and I am assuming Thursday previews are ~1.1M since EA was pretty limited 

 

Average: $890K

 

Really good day, perhaps a portent of good things to come tomorrow. I will provide an update tomorrow so I will have a prediction tomorrow. Another thing that is worth mentioning is that this has way more PLFs than any of my comps save for Exorcist, so with a higher ATP and this positive growth I almost feel confident predicting over 1 million for Thursday right now. We shall see tomorrow 

Edited January 3 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, my Cinemark has a Beekeper early access show this Saturday...did we know that?

 

I did include that in my latest update for that movie, and I will have EA comps tomorrow, but as of last Sunday sales for it were very lukewarm.

[keysersoze123]

Night Swim MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 9003/262104 160202.31 1662 shows

Friday - 8335/548330 134648.21 3396 shows

 

Not much of a pace for either. Probably high single digit OW and previews around 1m. 

Edited January 4 by keysersoze123

[misterpepp]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about Argylle? I see shows listed but its still not on sale. 

 

Working on it! 

[vafrow]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

I'm not doing a full track on it, but, Night Swim has sold 60 tickets for Thursday previews in my five theatre sample (western Greater Toronto Area, MTC4 theatres). It puts it about on par with where Nun 2 was, and probably around 50-60% of where Saw X was.

 

Sales jumped up 76% to 106, which continues its alignment to Nun II. Still behind Saw X, but made ground.

 

I think something in $3M range would be a reasonable estimate.

[el sid]

New numbers for Night Swim in a few hours.

I counted it two days ago, on Tuesday, and was a little bit disappointed. It had 153 sold tickets for Thursday and 119 for Friday.
That's better than the presales of e.g. The Invitation (775k from previews/6.8M OW) or Prey for the Devil (660k/7.2M OW) but only 1/2 -1/3 of e.g. Smile (2M/22.6MOW), M3gan (2.75M/30.4M OW) or The Nun II (3.1M/32.6M).
But from what I saw it looks better today.

[cannastop]

On 12/27/2023 at 6:52 PM, cannastop said:

This might not be the right place for this but in preparation for the Soul, Turning Red, and Luca re-releases I did some digging into recent re-releases.

 

Avatar in September 2022: $10,529,576 OW/$24,714,024 DOM

Titanic in February 2023: $6,714,684 OW/$15,033,795 DOM

The Nightmare Before Christmas in October 2023: $4,292,207 OW/$10,251,956 DOM

 

All three of these have multipliers between 2.30X and 2.45X

 

Kind of impressive consistency and a large multi for a re-release.

As an addendum to this, I don't see any evidence that anyone has bought tickets to these movies quite yet, outside of the El Capitan in Hollywood.

Don't know what comparisons you can use, if anyone tracked these other re releases.

Doesn't seem like they're going to do significant business, even with a Fandango offer for Inside Out 2 tickets.

[Dlund87]

Any chance Aquaman can leg out 400 million? The legs in this are way better than I thought. I didn't even think thisbmocie could beat The Flash total run. 

[misterpepp]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

How about Argylle? I see shows listed but its still not on sale. 

January 8

[el sid]

Night Swim, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 94 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 50 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 145 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 331.

Comps: The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164,
Barbarian (850k) had 289,
M3gan (2.75M) had 782,
Smile (2M) had 467

and The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 241 sold tickets.
Average: 1.3M from previews for Night Swim.
 

Night Swim, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 60 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 33 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 34 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 57 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 206.

Comps: The Invitation (6.8M OW) had 204 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (7.2M OW) had 262,
Barbarian (10.5M OW) had 249,
M3gan (30.4M OW) had 782,
Smile (22.6M OW) had 549,
The Night House (2.9M OW) had 90,
The Nun II (32.6M OW) had 1.106,
The Exorcist II (26.5M OW) had 1.383

and Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets.

Judging from my comps it could stay under 10M OW. But I guess with walk-ups it will at least get double digits. Still, I expected way more.

Edited January 4 by el sid

[abracadabra1998]

22 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	63	35	117	8014	1.46

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		59	18	50.43
MTC1:		82	23	70.09
Marcus:		2	2	1.71
Alamo:		12	2	10.26
Other chains:		21	8	17.95

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	42.68
3-Day:	125

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.66x Thanksgiving: $655k (24%, 89%)

0.35x The Exorcist Believer: $985k (24%, 73%)

0.29x Insidious Red Door: $1.44 Million (37%, 152%)

0.85x Last Voyage of Demeter: $635k (34%, 130%)

0.67x Talk To Me*: $740k (38%, 145%)

 

*EA was never reported for this. The total reported was $1.245M, and I am assuming Thursday previews are ~1.1M since EA was pretty limited 

 

Average: $890K

 

Really good day, perhaps a portent of good things to come tomorrow. I will provide an update tomorrow so I will have a prediction tomorrow. Another thing that is worth mentioning is that this has way more PLFs than any of my comps save for Exorcist, so with a higher ATP and this positive growth I almost feel confident predicting over 1 million for Thursday right now. We shall see tomorrow 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Night Swim (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	62	100	217	7867	2.76

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		97	38	44.7
MTC1:		123	41	56.68
Marcus:		24	22	11.06
Alamo:		19	7	8.76
Other chains:		51	30	23.5

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	85.47
3-Day:	223.88

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.18x Insidious Red Door: $920k (189%, 520%)

1.02x Last Voyage of Demeter: $770k (53%, 207%)

 

Average: $845K

 

I obviously don't have very many T-1 hour comps, but this is a fine but not spectacular final update. Obviously not reaching Insidious heights but better than Demeter. Let's go with a final prediction of $1 Million, +/- 0.15. I would predict under a million if not for the PLFs, which is raising the ATP by quite a bit compared to some other horror comps.

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

As an addendum to this, I don't see any evidence that anyone has bought tickets to these movies quite yet, outside of the El Capitan in Hollywood.

Don't know what comparisons you can use, if anyone tracked these other re releases.

Doesn't seem like they're going to do significant business, even with a Fandango offer for Inside Out 2 tickets.

Yeah still looks bad for Soul out there.

 

I would not be surprised if they simply do not report box office numbers.

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Yeah still looks bad for Soul out there.

 

I would not be surprised if they simply do not report box office numbers.

Actually just thought of a comp.

 

Half of what Ruby Gillman made would be good.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/1/2024 at 9:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Night Swim

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
445	1091	92509	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Miami-Orlando-Tampa-Jacksonville 

 

Ok, so as promised this is the new tracking region I will be using. I don't have a specific number, but thinking its around ~80% of all Florida screens available on Fandango. Going to have no comps for a while.  

 

This includes MTC1, MTC2, MTC3, plus several other MiniTCs

FLORIDA 

 

Night Swim

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
463	1897	93723	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

 

No comps, just raw numbers. I think I have figured out a way to track walkups. I'll update later tonight on growth

[DAJK]

Night Swim’s not doing terribly here. Consistently ahead of where I’d expect it to be for 1M previews. Would guess 1.3-1.4 based on comps, but schools haven’t gone back yet here so weekdays may be stronger than usual.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/31/2023 at 1:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	56	14	41	9092	0.45
Saturday Jan 6 EA: 9 theaters	9	10	20	2008	1
TOTALS:	65	24	61	11100	0.55

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		31	7	50.82
MTC1:		51	20	83.61
Marcus:		2	0	3.28
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	4	13.11

 

Thursday Comps:

0.69x The Equalizer 3: $2.64 Million*

 

*This underindexed in my market, and also had really late growth, so don't put too much faith in this comp for now.

 

Expend4bles comp added on Thursday

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Beekeeper (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	57	28	69	9241	0.75
Saturday Jan 6 EA: 10 theaters	10	113	133	2522	5.27
TOTALS:	67	141	202	11763	1.72

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		32	32	46.38
MTC1:		57	57	82.61
Marcus:		6	6	8.7
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		6	6	8.7

*This chart is for Thursday previews numbers only

 

Thursday Comps:

0.73x The Equalizer 3: $2.79 Million

1.82x Expend4bles: $1.36 Million

 

Average: $2.08 Million

 

EA Comps:

2.66x The Creator EA: $665k

5.78x Haunting in Venice EA: $560k

0.16x Trolls EA: $190k

0.53x Wish EA: $265k

 

Average: $420k

 

Do think it'll be closer to that Expend4bles number, Equalizer 3 notoriously underperformed here (not a very diverse metro area). EA looks decent, maybe close to $500k thinking about friendlier SAT walk-ups (and it's all PLF). Overall not bad at this stage to be honest.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/31/2023 at 1:28 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	41	38	118	6034	1.96
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters	6	38	149	1325	11.25
TOTALS:	47	76	267	7359	3.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		33	23	12.36
MTC1:		162	58	60.67
Marcus:		37	7	13.86
Alamo:		11	7	4.12
Other chains:		57	4	21.35

 

Thursday comps:

0.49x Wonka: $1.71 Million

0.27x Hunger Games BoSS: $1.58 Million

0.0684x Barbie: $1.45 Million

 

Average: $1.58 Million

 

EA comps:

0.71x Trolls EA: $925k

2.26x Wish EA: $1.13 Million

TMNT EA: Missed

0.38x MI7 EA: $770k

 

Average: $940k

 

Don't have time to add EA comps today, have one foot out the door. Might edit them in next year (LOL!)

 

Happy new year folks ❤️ 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Mean Girls (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	43	101	219	6880	3.18
Wednesday Jan 10 EA: 6 theaters	6	88	237	1325	17.89
TOTALS:	49	189	456	8205	5.56

 

Type of tix:*		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		70	37	31.96
MTC1:		103	49	47.03
Marcus:		21	12	9.59
Alamo:		20	9	9.13
Other chains:		75	31	34.25

*Chart for Thursday preview tickets only

 

Thursday comps:

0.73x Wonka: $2.56 Million

0.3x Hunger Games BoSS: $1.75 Million

0.0755x Barbie: $1.6 Million

0.82x Don't Worry Darling: $2.54 Million

 

Average: $2.11 Million

 

EA comps:

0.66x Trolls EA: $775k

1.9x Wish EA: $950k

0.49x TMNT EA: $815k

0.55x MI7 EA: $1.1 Million

 

Average: $910k

 

Pretty nice Thursday jump while EA keeps chugging along. This seems to be indexing less at MTC1 versus say Wonka or Hunger Games. Pretty low PLF numbers though

 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Box Office Report: Weekend Box Office Predictions for January 5 - January 7, 2024

(Link to BOR analysis below.)

Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Wonka (Warner Bros.)	$15.7 M	$166.0 M	-30%	4
2	Night Swim (Universal)	$14.5 M	$14.5 M	N/A	1
3	Migration (Universal)	$12.0 M	$79.7 M	-29%	3
4	Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (Warner Bros.)	$11.7 M	$101.1 M	-36%	3
6	Anyone But You (Sony / Columbia)	$7.9 M	$42.1 M	-10%	3
6	The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)	$5.9 M	$55.7 M	-50%	2
7	The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM Studios)	$5.8 M	$33.6 M	-31%	2
8	The Iron Claw (A24)	$3.4 M	$22.8 M	-33%	3
9	Ferrari (NEON)	$2.6 M	$16.0 M	-34%	2
10	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate)	$2.1 M	$164.1 M	-27%	8

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20240104.htm

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Arthur the King T-78: 27.22%

Mickey 17 T-85: 10.42%

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-99: 34.25%

Challengers T-113: 19.35%

The Strangers - Chapter 1 T-134: 23.5%

Kraven the Hunter T-239: 26.03%

 

Night Swim T-1: 43.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 40M

 

The Beekeeper T-8: 40.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 53% chance of 20M, 30% chance of 30M, 19% chance of 40M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 46% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

The Book of Clarence T-8: 27.29% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Mean Girls T-8: 57.17% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M