The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/28/2024 at 1:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
631	18	1343	46.98%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

251

1794

13.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

209

1387

15.07%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
930	86	18460	5.04%	13	89

 

1.200

Oppenheimer T-32

12.60M

0.289	Thor L&T Day 3	8.39M
0.575	Batman Day 3*	12.42M
1.283	Dune Part 1 Day 3	6.54M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday preview only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
672	41	1353	54.25%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

307

1794

17.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

220

1388

15.85%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1101	171	18464	5.96%	13	89

 

1.392

Oppenheimer T-31

14.62M

 

Switching over to T-X comps only, so I'll only have Oppenheimer for now. Definitely a noticeable boost after the ads during the NFL games yesterday.

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/28/2024 at 1:42 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-32 Thursday

153 Showings

4087

+337

23567

ATP:

19.34

1.837

Oppenheimer T-32

19.29M

0.474	Thor L&T Day 3	13.75M
0.629	Batman Day 3*	11.07M

*Doesn't include Batman EA showings I missed

 

T-33 Friday

237 Showings

4429

+501

35849

ATP:

18.49

2.327

Oppenheimer T-33

52.41M

0.742	Thor L&T Day 3	30.10M
0.730	Batman Day 3	25.62M

 

T-34 Saturday

253 Showings

5051

+574

38260

ATP:

17.94

2.186

Oppenheimer T-34

58.02M

0.977	Thor L&T Day 3	41.14M
1.020	Batman Day 3	44.12M

 

T-35 Sunday

230 Showings

2270

+334

34551

ATP:

18.66

1.930

Oppenheimer T-35

44.76M

0.907	Thor L&T Day 3	29.47M
1.213	Batman Day 3	41.42M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-31 Thursday

155 Showings

4627

+540

23827

ATP:

19.17

2.005

Oppenheimer T-31

21.05M

 

T-32 Friday

243 Showings

5216

+787

36756

ATP:

18.40

2.648

Oppenheimer T-32

59.62M

 

T-33 Saturday

257 Showings

6006

+955

38824

ATP:

17.78

2.466

Oppenheimer T-33

65.45M

 

T-34 Sunday

234 Showings

2783

+513

35115

ATP:

18.50

2.252

Oppenheimer T-34

52.22M

[Inceptionzq]

On 1/28/2024 at 1:43 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-32 Thursday

100 Showings

416

+84

16600

1.106

Oppenheimer T-32

11.62M

 

T-33 Friday

154 Showings

342

+71

26112

1.685

Oppenheimer T-33

37.94M

 

T-34 Saturday

159 Showings

309

+93

27092

2.272

Oppenheimer T-34

59.64M

 

T-35 Sunday

153 Showings

64

+1

26189

1.684

Oppenheimer T-35

39.06M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-31 Thursday

102 Showings

492

+76

16984

1.147

Oppenheimer T-31

12.04M

 

T-32 Friday

154 Showings

498

+156

26280

2.066

Oppenheimer T-32

46.54M

 

T-33 Saturday

159 Showings

427

+118

27258

2.497

Oppenheimer T-33

65.55M

 

T-34 Sunday

153 Showings

105

+41

26359

1.458

Oppenheimer T-34

33.82M

[Maggie]

So, any idea about how Madame Web might do? Any initial numbers?

[abracadabra1998]

19 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen, Season 4, Eps 1-3:

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	532	532	2171	24.5

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		243	243	45.68
Marcus:		141	141	26.5
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		148	148	27.82

 

Comps:

4.12x The Shift: $1.54 Million

3.13x After Death: $1.25 Million

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Not sure if they'll even report Thursday gross for this but I always find it funny just how many tickets stuff like this sells in pre-sales.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen, Season 4, Eps 1-3 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	69	601	2171	27.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		281	243	46.76
Marcus:		145	141	24.13
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		175	148	29.12

 

Comps:

4.45x The Shift: $1.66 Million

3.18x After Death: $1.27 Million

 

Average: $1.47 Million

[iEnri]

Dune will keep rising and people will continue to say it is opening with only 60M lol

[abracadabra1998]

19 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	44	64	203	8327	2.44

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		154	41	75.86
MTC1:		154	46	75.86
Marcus:		7	3	3.45
Alamo:		23	5	11.33
Other chains:		19	10	9.36

 

Comps:

0.5x Napoleon: $1.5 Million

0.3x KOFM: $785k

0.85x The Creator: $1.14 Million

0.15x MI7: $1.05 Million

0.17x Indiana Jones: $1.22 Million

1.42x Haunting in Venice: $1.7 Million

1.93x Iron Claw: $1.3 Million

 

Average: $1.24 Million

 

Added some more comps. Either this must really be underperforming here, or I'm missing something with my comps. Any reason this would be less front-loaded than say The Creator or Napoleon? I get MI7/Indy aren't the best comps, and even KOFM overperformed a bunch here, but I don't see why this would be any more backloaded than the two I previously mentioned. I just don't see it behaving like something like the Beekeeper, which is very friendly genre for walk-ups.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	46	34	237	8615	2.75

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		186	32	78.48
MTC1:		172	18	72.57
Marcus:		7	0	2.95
Alamo:		30	7	12.66
Other chains:		28	9	11.81

 

Comps:

0.47x Napoleon: $1.41 Million

0.31x KOFM: $800k

0.81x The Creator: $1.1 Million

1.26x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $1.51 Million

1.94x Iron Claw: $1.3 Million

0.47x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.12 Million

0.79x Blue Beetle: $2.6 Million

 

Average: $1.55 Million

 

@M37's comment (which I really appreciated, by the way, always love to hear your thoughts and analysis. Always helpful!) re-shifted my thinking a bit around comps; I thought this would play older and more cinephile for some reason, so my blockbuster comps (MI7, Indy) were reflecting that. Switched them for two blockbuster comps that are more action-comedy and did play more casual/less pre-sale heavy in this market (DC is not big here I have noticed lol). Not that I think a DC blockbuster is necessarily a good comp, but it balances out a bit of the "high-browness" of the other comps mentioned above.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/28/2024 at 6:51 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-32

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	2912	104695	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

217

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1259

 

COMPS

T-32

 

(1.390x) of Oppenheimer $14.59M 

(0.851x) of Indy 5 $6.13M 

Comps AVG: $10.36M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3114	104695	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

202

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1330

*71 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-31

 

(1.458x) of Oppenheimer $15.31M 

(0.891x) of Indy 5 $6.42M 

Comps AVG: $10.87M

Edited January 30 by TheFlatLannister

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

So, any idea about how Madame Web might do? Any initial numbers?

it is doing better than anyone could have expected.

 

Here NY it has sold out all central seats for Lincoln Square IMAX theater 19h00 screening (tickets were put on sale this morning) in NY as a whole it’s selling way better than I expected.

 

Such as someone commented on here earlier, in some areas it has already surpassed Aquaman 2  previews.

Edited January 30 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/28/2024 at 6:57 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Argylle is doing okay (on par with Mean girls)

 

Comp spits out $2.9M

Now at $2.83M

[TheFlatLannister]

Full day of sales vs previews is throwing this off causes Madame Web is doing better than Aquaman and Blue Beetle 

Edited January 30 by TheFlatLannister

[DAJK]

Jokes aside Madame Webb is doing absolutely nothing here. 4 theaters I’m tracking, 3 haven’t sold a thing yet

 

The fourth theater has 2 tickets sold Wed-Fri total. *sigh*
 

Argylle kept chugging along, albeit slowly. Thinking 2-3M previews (probably the lower end now though) unless reviews skew heavily one way or the other.

 

Dune continues to do well, with IMAX and PLF very very strong while regular shows are more tepid. Not sold on 10M+ previews yet, but if what I’m seeing is any indication, it could get close with the Sunday EA shows added in.

[Flip]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

So, any idea about how Madame Web might do? Any initial numbers?

I’d guess at the minimum 3m OD

[HummingLemon496]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Full day of sales vs previews is throwing this off causes Madame Web is doing better than Aquaman and Blue Beetle 

 

But damn! Doesn't look as DOA as I thought!

Edited January 30 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Full day of sales vs previews is throwing this off causes Madame Web is doing better than Aquaman and Blue Beetle 

 

I was going to jump in with a comment about this, as this plus VDay is going to throw things off a bit.  You should have increased traffic throughout the day, as even "lunch dates" should be something of a thing.  On the other hand, gonna have matinee and early bird pricing at play as well.

 

FWIW, Madame Web surprising, isn't to me.  I've low key been kinda thinking it'd be helped by Valentines Day and that folks were overreacting to Morbius flopping last year. 

 

As noted, this is tangentially connected to Spider-Man in a way that Morbius wasn't, if very VERY tangentially, and there are recognizable names involved with the film.

 

And, I dunno, looks "stupid fun", as opposed to Morbius which looked "stupid bad".  It's a fine line for shlock, I realize, but can't say Madame Web over-performing folks rock bed low expectations is all that surprising to me.

 

(still plenty of time for this to go south/find out we're over-reacting to minimal data)

Edited January 30 by Porthos

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

Am I going to regret chickening out and not doing a MW opening over club? 

 

Depending on what your "over" club would have been, I would have been one of the first to join.

 

(whether you would have considered that a "kiss of death" or not, I'll leave up to you 😉)

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
466	1678	89971	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

524

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.210x) of Blue Beetle $3.99M 

*NOT A GREAT COMP DUE TO PREVEIWS VS FULL DAY OF B.O.

[DAJK]

The thing people need to keep in mind for Madame Webb is that Wednesday is VDay meaning OD will probably be strong. That being said, Thursday will drop off HARD, and if the movie isn’t any good, the weekend isn’t going to recover once WOM hits.

[leoh]

12 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
466	1678	89971	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

524

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.210x) of Blue Beetle $3.99M 

*NOT A GREAT COMP DUE TO PREVEIWS VS FULL DAY OF B.O.

This matches with NY numbers.

 

Here in NY (considering only AMC theaters in NY) Madame Web first 12 hours sold more tickets than Blue Beetle, Aquaman and Morbius (considering only the first 12 hours of each in NY AMC theaters).

 

Tbh I’m really surprised, maybe I was not considering the strength that Spider-Man IP has in American pop culture. 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, iEnri said:

If Madame Web somehow makes over 30M opening weekend, dune is locked to make over 75M because it has way more hype than that mess

I would, in general, strongly caution against this sort of reasoning.  
 

If movie A does much better than you expected it’s a sign that movie A had more interest than you thought, not that movie B will have more interest than you’d thought!