The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Bob Marley's sales are actually pretty strong for the opening Valentine's Day but it hasn't moved much beyond that near me, even for the extended holiday weekend. So I would definitely be cautious about this potentially being another Color Purple.

 

Deadline has it between $27-33M for the 6 day...it seems very doable and on point right now.  

 

I mean $60-$75M total DOM (like Madame Web) would pretty much make it Color Purple...right now, the Feb 14 leader for the weekend and the total DOM is probably still up in the air...

 

Edit to Add: And it in its head-to-head tracking from Deadline, Bob Marley does have the 6 day edge (effectively by $2Mish)...

Edited January 30 by TwoMisfits

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2024/01/argylle-box-office-preview-1235809067/

 

Quote

Apple Original Films‘ third movie to go wide in theaters, the $200M Matthew Vaughn directed Argylle, hits cinemas this weekend via a distribution deal with Universal and a mid-teens start is expected.

 

As the old saying goes in distribution, ‘It would be nice if it had a 2 in front of it,’ meaning a $20M+ start.

 

Some exhibitors are bullish that the all-star movie with Henry Cavill, John Cena, Bryce Dallas Howard, Dua Lipa, Ariana DeBose, Bryan Cranston, Sam Rockwell, Samuel L. Jackson and more could reach that threshold, however, we’re in a truly downer box office atmosphere until Legendary/Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Two shows up.

 

A 50/50 male-female turnout expected with slightly older women at 3,500 theaters stateside with all the Imax and PLF screen guns a blazing. Argylle will also open in 79 offshore territories including UK & Ireland, Australia, France, Germany and Mexico. It’s the first movie of studio tentpole product leading into a Valentine’s Day-President Day spread on Feb. 14 where Paramount’s One Love: Bob Marley and Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web are expected to give some speed to turnstiles.

 

[Maggie]

200M budget???????????

 

[filmlover]

Just now, Maggie said:

200M budget???????????

 

Another loss leader for Apple, like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon were.

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Another loss leader for Apple, like Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon were.

yeah. if it went straight to Apple, nobody would know about the floppage. On streaming no one can hear/see you flop

Edited January 30 by Maggie

[TwoMisfits]

Last post from me, but didn't check my phone this morning:

 

$5 tickets to Bob Marley from Atom/TMobile, delivered Feb 13.

 

2024 Atom/TMobile Deals

Beekeeper $5

Bob Marley $5

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
672	41	1353	54.25%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

307

1794

17.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

220

1388

15.85%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1101	171	18464	5.96%	13	89

 

1.392

Oppenheimer T-31

14.62M

 

Switching over to T-X comps only, so I'll only have Oppenheimer for now. Definitely a noticeable boost after the ads during the NFL games yesterday.

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
705	33	1353	52.11%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

308

1794

17.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

226

1388

16.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1154	53	18464	6.25%	13	89

 

1.421

Oppenheimer T-30

14.92M

 

Getting some errors with Alamo Drafthouse, so no numbers for it today.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-31 Thursday

102 Showings

492

+76

16984

1.147

Oppenheimer T-31

12.04M

 

T-32 Friday

154 Showings

498

+156

26280

2.066

Oppenheimer T-32

46.54M

 

T-33 Saturday

159 Showings

427

+118

27258

2.497

Oppenheimer T-33

65.55M

 

T-34 Sunday

153 Showings

105

+41

26359

1.458

Oppenheimer T-34

33.82M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-30 Thursday

104 Showings

537

+45

16555

1.229

Oppenheimer T-30

12.90M

 

T-31 Friday

163 Showings

520

+22

26801

2.088

Oppenheimer T-31

47.03M

 

T-32 Saturday

168 Showings

453

+26

28076

2.589

Oppenheimer T-32

67.95M

 

T-33 Sunday

162 Showings

114

+9

26868

1.390

Oppenheimer T-33

32.24M

[leoh]

43 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Deadline has it between $27-33M for the 6 day...it seems very doable and on point right now.  

 

I mean $60-$75M total DOM (like Madame Web) would pretty much make it Color Purple...right now, the Feb 14 leader for the weekend and the total DOM is probably still up in the air...

 

Edit to Add: And it in its head-to-head tracking from Deadline, Bob Marley does have the 6 day edge (effectively by $2Mish)...

I would lean more towards what keysersoze123 said: Madame Web is selling better and it will certainly be the clear winner of the weekend. You have to keep in mind Deadline prediction was before Madame Web ticket sales start. And we couldn’t predict it would sell so much more than One Lone (I got shocked ngl I couldn’t expect it, it’s selling much more than I was predicting).

 

If you look at Box Office Pro prediction it’s way closer to what keysersoze123 said, not huge numbers on valentine but still a clear winner (Madame Web).

 

Considering the numbers shared here so far, on VDay Madame Web seems to be making between 4M and 5M. One Love between 2M and 2.5M. But these numbers can increase in the coming days, the last two weeks usually have an increase in marketing campaign.
 

Edited January 30 by leoh

[iEnri]

Are there any other recent movies that got EA to compare their numbers with Dune???

Edited January 30 by iEnri

[vafrow]

Weekend sets are up at my local. I reported recently that Fighter is playing at my theatre, and how rare it is for Indian films to get played at this location. They're now showing Warning 2 this weekend, while Fighter is still holding its screen.

 

Jat had a tweet recently I believe where he said that 7% of the Canadian box office was from Indian films. It's really interesting to see this play out with showtimes and availability. Fighter has been the most popular show at my theatre this week.

 

[JonathanMB]

I googled that $200M budget and found that Deadline even interviewed Vaughn last week and denied the $200M figure, while refusing to give an actual number, lol. I get that it's probably a similar situation to Killers and Napoleon where there aren't any back-end deals, but those movies also looked a lot...sharper than this does. Ah well, at least it's in theaters and not going straight to the app.

 

Regarding the Bob Marley movie, I think this will have slightly more crossover appeal than Renaissance or Color Purple, as Marley is a pretty universally recognizable figure in the US. Reviews could stunt it though - it was initially suppose to open limited and December then go wide in January, but the move to February suggests that it might not have ever been a real Oscar player...

[Flip]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Valentine's day BO MTC1

Madame Web - 7655/520989 130090.81 2461 shows

Bob Marley - 8817/276230 130461.53 1734 shows

 

Neither number is good. But MW is just for 1 day and I am not sure how long Marley has been on sale. I expect it to be even more frontloaded than Madame Web looking at BO runs of Renaissance and Color Purple. Let me look beyond OD later after few days of PS for MW to see if that holds true. My bet is for MW to win the weekend. 

I don't get comparing Bob Marley to Renaissance, concert movies have abnormally low legs. Color Purple makes decent sense but musician biopics have had long legs in the last decade or so (Elvis, Rocketman, Bohemian Rhapsody)

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, Flip said:

I don't get comparing Bob Marley to Renaissance, concert movies have abnormally low legs. Color Purple makes decent sense but musician biopics have had long legs in the last decade or so (Elvis, Rocketman, Bohemian Rhapsody)

I compared as they have similar audience profile(African American audience). They are frontloaded. Just look at friday presales for the confirmation. Unlike say Color Purple, i am not impressed by OD presales as well. 

[Flip]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I compared as they have similar audience profile(African American audience). They are frontloaded. Just look at friday presales for the confirmation. Unlike say Color Purple, i am not impressed by OD presales as well. 

but when you're talking about frontloadedness comparing a biopic to a concert movie which has much more fan rush and less wide appeal doesn't track. I'm not surprised presales aren't that high, because it won't be driven by fans in the way Renaissance or The Eras Tour were. Marley should definitely have more appeal to causals beyond OD than Renaissance and even Color Purple did.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
466	1678	89971	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

524

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(1.210x) of Blue Beetle $3.99M 

*NOT A GREAT COMP DUE TO PREVEIWS VS FULL DAY OF B.O.

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	2080	93918	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

402

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

562

*38 seats sold 

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.100x) of Blue Beetle $3.64M 

(0.614x) of AquaMan 2 $2.76M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.2M

*NOT A GREAT COMP DUE TO PREVEIWS VS FULL DAY OF B.O.

[Derpity]

2 hours ago, iEnri said:

Are there any other recent movies that got EA to compare their numbers with Dune???

 

The comparable screening that comes to mind for me is The Batman's Tuesday shows

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Derpity said:

 

The comparable screening that comes to mind for me is The Batman's Tuesday shows

 

With some variations for closures and new IMAX theaters, it's the closest we have for an exact like-for-like, since that was also an IMAX Exclusive.  Is a difference between Sun night and Tue night, yes.  But when it comes to apples-to-apples comparisons, gonna be hard to find a better recent one for the EA portion of Dune: Part Two. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

ARGYLLE

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
438	2385	82493	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

114

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.701x) of Mean Girls $2.31M 

 

Looks like ~$2M+

[TheFlatLannister]

On 1/29/2024 at 7:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3114	104695	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

202

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1330

*71 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-31

 

(1.458x) of Oppenheimer $15.31M 

(0.891x) of Indy 5 $6.42M 

Comps AVG: $10.87M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3295	104695	3.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

181

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1389

*59 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-30

 

(1.494x) of Oppenheimer $15.68M 

(0.916x) of Indy 5 $6.59M 

(0.370x) of GOTG vol 3 $6.48M 

(2.611x) of Aquaman 2 $11.75M 

Comps AVG: $10.13M