The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 3/1/2024 at 1:32 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-21]

210/18221 (1.15% sold) [111 showtimes]

 

Day 1 Comp against Ghostbusters: Afterlife:

1.05528x GBA after one day of sales       [5.37m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]

-----

Assorted Other Day 1 comps (don't take too seriously)

0.49296x BA after one day of sales               [3.75m]
1.77966x Shazam 2 after one day of sales    [6.05m]

0.43659x Wick 4 after one day of sales        [3.89m]
0.46256x TLM after one day of sales            [4.76m]
0.49763x Indy 5 after one day of sales         [3.58m]
0.32864x FNAF after one day of sales          [3.38m]
0.86420x THG:BOSS after one day of sales [4.97m]

 

======

 

That ATP hike is doing a decent amount of work here, but I'm not really loving the other comps I have.  Really, the info against GBA is the best piece of info I have I reckon, with the rest providing context.

 

So, yeah.  Decent as I said earlier.  Will want to see a couple of days of sales to see the pattern here and if it's worth shifting to a full track or not.

 

Quick and Dirty Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Sacramento Report [T-14]

453/19671 (2.30% sold) [+35 tickets] [116 showtimes]

 

1.43810x GBA at T-14                [7.32m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.89881x Sonic 2 at T-14          [5.62m]
0.49671x Black Adam at T-14   [3.78m]
0.39357x Wick 4 at T-14           [3.50m]
0.56343x RotB at T-14              [4.96m]
1.81200x Wonka at T-14            [6.34m]

 

----

 

Okay, before I say anything else, that GBA comp is a more than a bit misleading, as at this level of sales even four extra days of pre-sales will put a thumb on the scale.  Still.  Still, here are the first eight days of GBA vs the first eight days of GBFE side-by-side:

 

GBA			GBFE
T-17:	199		T-21:	210
T-16:	49		T-20:	38
T-15:	27		T-19:	47
T-14:	40		T-18:	33
T-13:	49		T-17:	35
T-12:	37		T-16:	12
T-11:	30		T-15:	43
T-10:	99		T-14:	35

 

Broadly similar until T-10 of GBA (don't remember if that was a social media lift or not, but it's close enough to release to Be Something). 

 

If we normalize the dates, we get:

			GBFE
			T-21:	210
			T-20:	38
			T-19:	47
GBA			T-18:	33
T-17:	199		T-17:	35
T-16:	49		T-16:	12
T-15:	27		T-15:	43
T-14:	40		T-14:	35

 

And it's not that different on pace, aside from a blip at T-16 for GBFE.  OTOH, GBFE got added to the TrueIMAX theater in town yesterday and has promptly sold 41 tickets over two days, giving it a bit of a boost in this portion of the U-curve.  Plus "past performance" and all that.

 

Now none of the other comps except for Wonka (which isn't that good of a comp I KNOW) is pointing to above 6m, but...

 

Well, gonna give a harder look at this than I was expecting. See how it goes over the next day or so, especially against both Sonic 2 (which started at T-24) and Rise of the Beasts (which started at T-29) plus give a deeper look at some of the other markets (none of which are this rosy for GBFE, from what I recall).

 

What I will say is that except for the T-16 day, the daily sales for GBFE have been... Not Too Bad.  Which says something.  Not a lot, maybe, but still something.

Edited March 8 by Porthos
Made the charts look a little prettier

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-15, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

T-15 Comps

0.745x HG:BoSS for $4.3M

1.346x Madame Web for $8.1M 

N/A for Aquaman 2

0.090x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.106x The Marvels for $0.7M

2.059x Wonka for $7.2M

 

Zero sales today. I switched to T minus comps, but BoSS and Madame Web just started, so it's skewing quite a bit.

 

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-14, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales: 3

Growth: 0/9%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 30/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 29/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

T-15 Comps

0.500x HG:BoSS for $2.9M

1.000x Madame Web for $6.0M 

N/A for Aquaman 2

0.091x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.112x The Marvels for $0.7M

1.652x Wonka for $5.8M

 

Everything is still all over the map. Growth remains pretty tepid, but it's also still far out.

[M37]

5 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Any idea what kind of metrics studios use to estimate walkups in advance like what we've seen for Kung Fu Panda?

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

None clue whatsoever. Sorry. 🙂.

 

 @M37 might know.  I suspect @Shawn Robbins could chip in, in a general sense; both for what he generally looks for (without giving away Trade Secrets) and what the industry in general/the studios look for.

 

But I suspect things like Google Trends and similar social media engagement metrics and similar survey data along side raw ticket sales (which is what we at BOT tend to fixate more on — well that and RT scores 😉).

I'll be honest, I don't know how much studios are factoring in ticket sales when generating their expected range, rather than relying on traditional "soft tracking" metrics: trailer views, surveys (like quorum), social media engagement, etc. And to my knowledge, exhibitors (theaters), despite having the actual ticket sales data at their fingertips, still largely rely on studio or industry projections, at least for OW. The film industry still very much has an "old school" mentality, continuing to use more outdated methods; "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", even though we've seen time and time again they can be way off. [I do think some change is underfoot, if only by necessity given state of industry post-pandemic]

 

But if they are incorporating ticket sales, would likely be a similar process to what is done here, relying on comps, where comparable films/genres behave similarly in terms of when audience buy tickets. The amount of walk-ups is baked into those comparisons, where fan-heavy CBMs are mostly early sales, family and horror are mostly late, and everything else is somewhere in between

 

It has been said before, but this little thread of volunteer movie nerds is really top notch, the BEST publicly available pre- and post-release tracking source. Someone in the industry quite possibly has a more refined internal process, but even then it likely wouldn't be all that much more advanced or precise than what anyone with a web connection could read here (though could drill down more detailed into demo composition or market performance). The data is all there, the trends undeniable, it just takes someone who is willing and able to to break it all down

[M37]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

I remember Jat saying something on here about Minions 2 like “guys… this is the first time in a while we absolutely missed the train that was coming” totally butchered the quote but really crystallized how insane its last week was

 

I wasn’t tracking at the time but it was still a fun one to lurk for 😁

It was a collective miss to a degree, thinking was like $60M (?) OW before the last wee, and nobody really had over $10M even in the final updates. Partially that was because there wasn't much in the way of comps, besides like Sonic 2 and Ghostbusters AL, which would have undershot, but there data was there to show what was happening

 

Minions was really the film that validated my fixation with growth rate trends, a proof of concept type event

[Legion Again]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don’t think KFP4 has done anything extraordinary. Was thinking 45-55 for it for last 3 weeks or so and its doing that.

Yeah I feel like mostly thread had been expecting/I had been expecting based on thread 3-4*12-15ish, which comes out to 41-53 or so.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-14, Thursday previews,

 

Everything is still all over the map. Growth remains pretty tepid, but it's also still far out.

 

It's interesting that you mention this as I still haven't gotten a really great grasp on what to think about GBFE yet.

 

I decided to take a bit of a closer look at the data from Sacramento I just posted and after seven days of pre-sales (so we discount the blip at T-10 for GBA which might be timing related), GBA outsold GBFE 431 to 415.  On the other hand you can't just throw away those four extra days for GBFE.  So if I just look at the last three days of sales, which includes the artificially inflated second day of sales for GBA (T-16), we get GBA's 116 vs GBFE's 90.  Last two days of sales is more or less the same level (67 vs 78)

 

But then there's the IMAX theater coming into play yesterday with a minor boost of sales.  Plus two days is nothing when it comes to trendlines (well, neither is three, but...)

 

So, like, the most likely result is GBA +/- a tiny amount (plus ATP hike).  But we've had more than one object lesson recently that "most likely" does not necessarily mean "going to happen" (and, no, I'm not just talking about Dune: Part Two).

 

So, I dunno.  Most of the disparate comping IMO is thanks to wildly different pre-sale lengths as well as different genres = different buying patterns.  But, still, gotta say that I've been somewhat impressed that GBFE hasn't had a flatter U-curve; both due to being a sequel (which means more frontloading from fans) and from a slightly longer pre-sale window.

 

All of the above being said... Still don't have a great handle on the film, beyond "most likely".  If that makes sense.

 

(and it might not, given it's 3:30am my time )

((really ought to get to bed, but your comment gave me the push to make a further comment that I wanted to make anyway))

(((okay, going to bed now, really!)))

Edited March 8 by Porthos

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's interesting that you mention this as I still haven't gotten a really great grasp on what to think about GBFE yet.

 

I decided to take a bit of a closer look at the data from Sacramento I just posted and after seven days of pre-sales (so we discount the blip at T-10 for GBA which might be timing related), GBA outsold GBFE 431 to 415.  On the other hand you can't just throw away those four extra days for GBFE.  So if I just look at the last three days of sales, which includes the artificially inflated second day of sales for GBA (T-16), we get GBA's 116 vs GBFE's 90.  Last two days of sales is more or less the same level (67 vs 78)

 

But then there's the IMAX theater coming into play yesterday with a minor boost of sales.  Plus two days is nothing when it comes to trendlines (well, neither is three, but...)

 

So, like, the most likely result is GBA +/- a tiny amount (plus ATP hike).  But we've had more than one object lesson recently that "most likely" does not necessarily mean "going to happen" (and, no, I'm not just talking about Dune: Part Two).

 

So, I dunno.  Most of the disparate comping IMO is thanks to wildly different pre-sale lengths as well as different genres = different buying patterns.  But, still, gotta say that I've been somewhat impressed that GBFE hasn't had a flatter U-curve; both due to being a sequel (which means more frontloading from fans) and from a slightly longer pre-sale window.

 

All of the above being said... Still don't have a great handle on the film, beyond "most likely".  If that makes sense.

 

(and it might not, given it's 3:30am my time )

((really ought to get to bed, but your comment gave me the push to make a further comment that I wanted to make anyway))

(((okay, going to bed now, really!)))

 

The timing of starts has certainly messed with my comps. The ones worth using started later. The bad comps with a similar start date aren't providing much.

 

But the main thing impacting my track is the poor showtime allocation. And if theatres were holding back to see how other films were holding, then GBFE isn't looking at a lot of opportunity here.

 

That said, with all the KFP4 talk and walk ups, I expect this film to play young, and those sales may break late. 

 

I imagine we'll have a much better understanding on this a week from now.

[Minnale101]

I mean I’ve only been following kfp4 for weeks now and for most part besides week, I saw 30-35 million predictions ow

 

so I mean if it does 50 million that’s amazing to me, growth from kfp2 and kfp3 especially when budget is 40% less than 2nd and 3rd movie 

[WorkingonaName]

Sportsbet had $33M for the over/under a week ago. 

[Legion Again]

36 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I mean I’ve only been following kfp4 for weeks now and for most part besides week, I saw 30-35 million predictions ow

 

so I mean if it does 50 million that’s amazing to me, growth from kfp2 and kfp3 especially when budget is 40% less than 2nd and 3rd movie 

We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/6/2024 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-15	Jax	5	56	5	88	8,681	1.01%
		Phx	6	50	6	100	8,790	1.14%
		Ral	8	37	3	109	5,354	2.04%
	Total		19	143	14	297	22,825	1.30%

 

T-15 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.188x (3.68m)

 - Shazam 2 - .786x (2.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.253x (5.14m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .68x (4.28m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .669x (3.75m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .449x (3.95m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.02 (4.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.07m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-13	Jax	5	56	5	105	8,681	1.21%
		Phx	6	53	6	118	9,018	1.31%
		Ral	8	37	10	126	5,354	2.35%
	Total		19	146	21	349	23,053	1.51%

 

Forgot to post yesterday, but it was +31

 

T-13 comps

 

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.238x (3.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - .839x (2.85m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.307x (5.36m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .678x (4.27m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .68x (3.81m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .454x (3.99m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.07m

 

A couple other movies that may be comps, but I'm not committing to the model yet

 - Nope - .997x (6.38m)

 - Morbius - .695x (3.96m)

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

We are still talking quite a bit down from KFP2 tickets tbf

For sure but dreamworks sequels this decade have been all down from previous movies in opening weekend 

 

trolls 1 did 47 million and trolls 3 did 32 million ow 

 

trolls 2 released right when Covid happened don’t think it went to threaters 

 

also croods 2, boss baby 2 all down as well 

 

puss in boots being absolutely incredible movie and reviews helped a ton with its legs but still down ow 

Edited March 8 by Minnale101

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Arthur the King	T-6	Jax	5	14	10	10	1,173	0.85%
		Phx	6	15	9	9	1,955	0.46%
		Ral	7	20	9	9	1,779	0.51%
	Total		18	49	28	28	4,907	0.57%

 

T-6 comps

 - Peter Rabbit - .651x (586k)

 - Dog - .609x (767k)

 - Jungle Cruise - .163x (440k)

 - Stillwater - 1.87x (523k)

 - Otto (expansion) - .583x (370k)

[Shawn Robbins]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

None clue whatsoever. Sorry. 🙂.

 

 @M37 might know.  I suspect @Shawn Robbins could chip in, in a general sense; both for what he generally looks for (without giving away Trade Secrets) and what the industry in general/the studios look for.

 

But I suspect things like Google Trends and similar social media engagement metrics and similar survey data along side raw ticket sales (which is what we at BOT tend to fixate more on — well that and RT scores 😉).

 

10 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Yeah, the non raw ticket sales metrics would be interesting to know. I.e. is some of those what you said or are there one or two metrics that raise above others or might the metrics even vary a lit based on genre or other factors. Fascinating stuff in any case.

 

Following up on @Porthos' post mostly,  but tagging you as well @von Kenni.

 

I mean, I own all my data that could be interpreted as trade secrets... but, yeah, I can't give it all away for free. 

 

You're generally in the ballpark with social engagement stuff. On top of that, exhibitors and studios can look at granular data that varies chain by chain or location by location. And honestly, the same applies on a higher view level with national box office numbers and applying common sense.

 

"Box Office 101", so to speak, includes understanding a kids' movie or something without a discernable fan rush is going to draw a lot of business not generated through pre-sales, even in a pre-sale-driven era. (Which is one reason it's always great when a fan-friendly movie does get healthy walk-ups, such as the big Marvel movies.)

 

So at the end of the day, it's all about comps, comps, comps no matter what the metric is.

[keysersoze123]

Crazy low ratio for Panda. its probably going for something in Trolls ballpark today. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/1/2024 at 10:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Dune: Part Two	3,378	136,042	-	122,015	-	14,027	4,977	0
Bob Marley: One Love	2,883	39,710	-	39,569	-	141	0	0
Ordinary Angels	2,615	31,224	-	31,206	-	18	0	0
Madame Web	2,570	28,925	-	28,859	-	66	0	0
Demon Slayer	1,834	26,326	-	26,275	-	51	0	0
The Chosen 4: 7-8	2,167	20,593	-	20,593	-	0	0	0
Drive-Away Dolls	2,105	19,894	-	19,894	-	0	0	0
Migration	1,898	16,834	-	16,599	-	235	0	215
Wonka	1,571	13,423	-	13,397	-	26	0	0
Argylle	1,890	11,913	-	11,873	-	40	0	0
The Beekeeper	1,180	9,705	-	9,687	-	18	0	0
Land of Bad	496	3,615	-	3,615	-	0	0	0
Anyone But You	455	2,976	-	2,976	-	0	0	0
Night Swim	304	2,438	-	2,438	-	0	0	0
American Fiction	633	2,145	-	2,130	-	15	0	0

 

3/1/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comps

Dune: Part Two - 136,042 (3,378 TC) (21,486 Previews)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (21,288)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (17,516)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499) (21,714)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523) (15,697)

 

Chosen 4: 7-8 - 20,593 (2,167 TC) (4,373 Previews)

 - Chosen 3: 1-2 - 22,999 (1,970)

 - Christmas W/ Chosen - 18,800 (1,556)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Kung-Fu Panda 4 - 58,221 (2,720 TC) (11,489 Previews)

 - Elemental - 59,677 (2,622) (10,948)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764) (9,350)

 - Haunted Mansion - 41,831 (2,393) (8,100)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (15,359)

 - TMNT - 39,056 (2,105)

 

Cabrini - 24,239 (2,105 TC) (3,075 Previews)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161) (4,139)

 - Babylon - 24,509 (2,289) (4,781)

 

Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048 TC) (3,510 Previews)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196) (3,057)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210) (5,168)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Arthur the King - 4,330 (1,559 TC)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706)

 - Strays - 4,756 (1,745)

 - Man Called Otto (Expansion) - 3,582 (1,324)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 2,106 (831 TC)

 - She Said - 2,214 (1,081)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790)

 

One Life - 1,243 (494 TC)

 - Man Called Otto (limited) - 1,066 (346)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 10,683 (1,917 TC)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Venom 2 - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Barbie - 10,086 (2,388)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,448	120,504		101,117		19,387	0	16,307
Dune: Part Two	3,449	75,023	-25.37%	65,556	606.47	9,467	3,940	0
Imaginary	2,790	46,327		46,325		2	0	0
Cabrini	2,660	39,434		39,387		47	0	0
Bob Marley: One Love	2,379	29,545	-25.33%	29,459	187.16	86	0	0
Ordinary Angels	2,077	20,938	-32.90%	20,938	119.70	0	0	0
Madame Web	1,668	11,868	-58.88%	11,840	109.42	28	0	0
Migration	1,231	9,532	-42.57%	9,363	148.53	169	0	154
Chosen S4: Ep 7-8	1,089	6,414	-60.46%	6,414	159.50	0	0	0
Wonka	853	6,151	-54.09%	6,136	128.11	15	0	0
Demon Slayer	805	5,784	-77.99%	5,782	78.87	2	0	0
The Beekeeper	528	3,645	-62.37%	3,633	113.67	12	0	0
Shaitaan	401	3,293		3,293		0	0	0
Argylle	663	3,010	-74.65%	2,996	116.22	14	0	0
Poor Things	532	1,673		1,673		0	0	0
American Fiction	675	1,524	-28.45%	1,509	159.99	15	0	0
Anatomy of a Fall	571	646		646		0	0	0

 

3/8/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comps

Kung-Fu Panda 4 - 120,504 (3,448 TC) (18,013 previews)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 117,504 (3,243) (16,319)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (18,937)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (14,155)

 - Transformers RotB - 119,071 (3,183) (18,066)

 

Imaginary - 46,327 (2,790 TC) (5,079 previews)

 - Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789) (4,899)

 - Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738) (4,733)

 - Joy Ride - 46,097 (2,561) (7,525)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659) (5,198)

 - Menu - 45,234 (2,830) (5,725)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482) (7,392)

 

Cabrini - 39,434 (2,660 TC) (4,135 previews)

 - Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277 (4,242)

 - Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708) (4,322)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933) (4,185)

 - King Richard - 38,074 (2,890)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Arthur the King - 27,908 (2,072 TC) (5,416 previews)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345) (6,409)

 - No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836) (5,070)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321) (4,519)

 - Easter Sunday - 27,805 (1,950) (5,188)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950) (4,311)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 13,476 (981 TC) (2,385 previews)

 - Malignant - 13,875 (1,363)

 - Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317) (1,690)
 - Bodies Bodies - 13,255 (917) (1,607)

 

American Society - 11,218 (793 TC) (1,775 previews)

 - Honk for Jesus - 11,931 (1,249) (2,597)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911) (1,250)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959) (1,228)

 

One Life - 8,037 (586 TC) (1,371 previews)

 - Mrs Harris - 7,844 (572) (948)

 - Spencer - 8,405 (714) (1,377)

 - Jawan - 8,375 (541) (2,037)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Ghostbusters - 12,645 (2,430 TC)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405) (11,617)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346) (11,334)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536) (13,664)

 - Flash - 14,296 (2,440) (14,296)

 

Immaculate - 1,599 (1,019 TC)

 - It Lives Inside - 1,660 (953) (1,660)

 - Haunting in Venice - 1,587 (622) (1,587)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 4,406 (691 TC) (6.38 per)

 - Spider-Man - 5,529 (793) (6.97 per)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 3,764 (573) (6.57 per)

 - Venom - 12,285 (1,978) (6.21 per)

 

Still in the early stages of loading shows, so I put the closest shows per theater comps

[keysersoze123]

52 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

I mean, I own all my data that could be interpreted as trade secrets... but, yeah, I can't give it all away for free. 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/1/2024 at 1:21 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows
Fri	T-0	4572	31153	201

Friday Comps

2.18x Wonka T-0 = $23.8m

1.31x HG BoSS T-0 = $17.4m

1.77x Marvels T-0 = $26.7m

1.001x FNaF T-0 = $29.3m

0.49x T-Swift Eras T-0 = $17.12m / $10.3m ATP adjusted (-40%)*

2.07x Dune 2 Thu T-0 = $19.3-$20.9m**

*just guessing ATP adjustment

**using $9.3m-$10.1m for Thu previews 

 

AVG = $21.3m

---

Gonna be really damn annoying if studios make a habit of rounding up previews 10%. But shoutout to Zaz for briefly making me seem smart 

Malco

Dune: Part Two 2nd Friday

Sales	Seats	Shows
2259	16209	140

Comp

0.49x Dune 2 1st Fri T-0 = $9.98m

---

Pulled same time as last week. Presales are down about 50% from first Friday, but thinking Spring Break and WOM will help with walkups. We'll see. 

 

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

 

Following up on @Porthos' post mostly,  but tagging you as well @von Kenni.

 

I mean, I own all my data that could be interpreted as trade secrets... but, yeah, I can't give it all away for free. 

 

You're generally in the ballpark with social engagement stuff. On top of that, exhibitors and studios can look at granular data that varies chain by chain or location by location. And honestly, the same applies on a higher view level with national box office numbers and applying common sense.

 

"Box Office 101", so to speak, includes understanding a kids' movie or something without a discernable fan rush is going to draw a lot of business not generated through pre-sales, even in a pre-sale-driven era. (Which is one reason it's always great when a fan-friendly movie does get healthy walk-ups, such as the big Marvel movies.)

 

So at the end of the day, it's all about comps, comps, comps no matter what the metric is.

Thanks, I appreciate taking time to elaborate on this and great job with Dune Part Two projection when most were jumping on the doom-gloom train. I guess those other trade secret metrics helped too

[Relevation]

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-previews-1235932634/

 

‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ Makes $3.8 Million in Previews