The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/5/2024 at 10:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Godzilla x Kong	3,104	83,288	-21.07%	63,197	640.00	20,091	12,413	2,939
Monkey Man	2,662	54,544		52,221		2,323
The First Omen	2,816	49,021		47,490		1,531
Ghostbusters: FE	2,969	41,609	-38.29%	41,542	231.02	67
Kung Fu Panda 4	2,802	40,282	-22.00%	37,971	200.35	2,311	2,184
Dune: Part Two	2,378	25,737	-22.63%	24,899	341.29	838	630
Immaculate	1,483	13,375	-52.28%	13,375	116.06	0
Arthur the King	1,553	13,192	-49.91%	13,178	94.34	14
Wicked Little Letters	954	12,950		12,950		0
Someone Like You	1,720	9,534		9,534		0
Late Night with the Devil	1,073	9,027	-35.50%	9,012	154.48	15
Epic Tails	740	6,153		6,153		0
Imaginary	806	5,877	-61.84%	5,877	90.35	0
Land of Saints	719	5,340	-52.37%	5,340	82.37	0
Family Star (Telugu)	499	5,090		5,072		18
Cabrini	415	2,340	-66.30%	2,340	144.81	0

 

4/5/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

Opening Weekend Comp

Monkey Man - 54,544 (2,662 TC) (7,008 previews)

 - Old - 56,756 (2,958) (5,027)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800) (7,814)

 - Beast - 57,591 (3,225) (7,353)

 - Strays - 52,103 (2,849) (7,230)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947) (4,864)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935) (6,725)

 

The First Omen - 49,021 (2,816 TC) (4,972 previews)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998) (6,243)

 - Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738) (4,733)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659) (5,198)

 - Imaginary - 46,327 (2,790) (5,079)

 - Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789) (4,899)

 

Someone Like You (3-day) - 9,534 (1,720 TC)

 - Mouthful of Air - 9,282 (782)

 - Back on the Strip - 11,138 (1,265)

 - Left Behind - 6,396 (1,398)

 

Wicked Little Letters - 12,950 (954 TC)

 - Mrs. Harris - 13,334 (935)

 - Family Camp - 13,401 (851)

 - Jules - 12,726 (752)

 - Vengeance - 14,169 (929)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Civil War 4/8 EA - 59 (51 TC)

Civil War - 43,804 (2,458 TC) (9,514 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798)

 - Oppenheimer - 44,992 (2,727) (8,645)

 - TMNT - 39,056 (2,105) (8,257)

 - Creed III - 48,260 (2,518) (11,443)

 

Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary) - 9,008 (1,012 TC)

 

SUGA 3-Day - 3,312 (738 TC)

 

The Long Game - 6,942 (526 TC)

 - Courageous Legacy - 6,778 (515)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

 - Glass Onion - 7,407 (617)

 - Breaking - 6,778 (515)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (4/13 EA) - 812

 - Strays EA - 835

 - Gran Turismo EA - 725

 - Top Gun EA - 970

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 2,630 (1,553 TC)

 - Evan Hanson - 2,599 (1,511)

 - Missing - 2,800 (1,182)

 - Amsterdam - 2,546 (1,441)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 

Abigail - 3,641 (1,540 TC)

 - Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 

Not a lot of horror in this range - maybe because shows just went up a couple of days ago and they are still populating.

 

Spy x Family Code: White - 3,909 (1,358 TC)

 - Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 3,960 (1,424)

 - Clifford - 4,120 (1,310)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

 

T-4 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,151 (915 TC)

Fall Guy - 7,481 (2,174 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - Oppenheimer - 6,116 (2,257)

 - Shazam 2 - 8,326 (1,558)

 

T-5 Week Previews Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,060 (881 TC)

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 3,062 (924 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506)

 

Still on PLF on sale so it's limiting theaters

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Civil War	2,792	65,314		52,786		12,528	4,871
Godzilla x Kong	2,327	41,900	-49.69%	36,529	374.64	5,371		4,294
Kung Fu Panda 4	2,003	25,644	-36.34%	24,388	192.94	1,256		1,193
The First Omen	2,226	25,144	-42.92%	25,091	170.41	53
Monkey Man	2,152	24,841	-47.74%	24,773	185.53	68
Ghostbusters: FE	2,058	24,779	-40.45%	24,742	216.38	37
Dune: Part Two	1,585	14,804	-42.48%	14,624	288.78	180
Shrek 2 - 20th Anniv	1,281	11,820		11,820		0
The Long Game	856	11,673		11,673		0
Arcadian	890	9,430		9,430		0
Sting	740	7,767		7,767		0
Arthur the King	744	6,052	-54.12%	6,041	117.19	11
Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead	553	4,821		4,821		0
Wicked Little Letters	706	4,765	-63.20%	4,765	103.49	0
Someone Like You	694	4,720	-50.49%	4,720	309.97	0
SUGA	704	3,755		3,754		1
Bade Miyan Chote Miyan	416	3,003		2,941		62
Maidaan	454	2,972		2,963		9
Immaculate	379	2,632	-80.32%	2,632	103.93	0
Late Night with the Devil	390	2,491	-72.41%	2,475	120.83	16

 

4/12/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

Opening Weekend Comp

Civil War - 65,314 (2,792 TC) (12,528 PLF)

 - Gran Turismo - 66,794 (3,130) (12,335)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (4,214)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (9,143)

 

Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary) - 11,820 (1,281 TC)

 - Father Stu: Reborn - 11,346 (941)

 

SUGA 3-Day - 3,755 (704 TC)

 - Sword Art Oline - 3,693 (813)

 

The Long Game - 11,673 (856 TC)

 - Courageous Legacy - 11,304 (967)

 - Roadrunner - 10,268 (848)

 

Arcadian - 9,430 (890 TC)

 

T-1 Week Comps

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (4/13 EA) - 932 (917 TC)

 - Strays EA - 930 (915)

 - Bullet Train EA - 847 (771)

 - Top Gun EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Death on the Nile EA - 824 (816)

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 25,249 (1,907 TC)

 - Babylon - 24,509 (2,289)

 - Cabrini - 24,239 (2,105)

 - Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878)

  - 65 - 26,446 (1,843)

 

Abigail - 29,598 (2,022 TC)

 - M3GAN - 29,092 (2,210)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Insidious: The Red Door - 31,621 (1,952)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048)

 

Spy x Family Code: White - 23,586 (1,518 TC)

 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Unsung Hero (4/24 EA) - 1,597 (1,499 TC)

 - Joy Ride EA - 1,666 (1,496)

 

Unsung Hero - 1,976 (1,206 TC)

 - Champions - 1,845 (1,276)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 - She Said - 2,214 (1,081)

 

Challengers (4/22 EA) - 477

 - Blackening EA - 466

 - Lost City - 426

 

Challengers - 2,013 (744 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790)

 - Love Lies Bleeding - 2,106 (831)

 

Boy Kills World - 1,007 (686 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495)

 - Antlers - 1,045 (644)

 - Infinity Pool - 1,046 (727)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,157 (922 TC)

 - Top Gun EA - 897 (876)

 

Fall Guy - 7,466 (2,206 TC)

 - John Wick 4 - 7,973 (1,938)

 - No Time to Die - 7,191 (1,520)

 - Haunted Mansion - 7,297 (2,028)

 

Tarot - 2,637 (962 TC)

 - Crawdads - 2,901 (971)

 - The Menu - 3,087 (1,316)

 

T-4 Week Previews Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,082 (916 TC)

 - Fall Guy EA - 1,151 (915)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 9,079 (1,892 TC)

 - Barbie - 8,920 (2,053)

 - Shazam 2 - 8,326 (1,558)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

[Flip]

Challengers is selling VERY good, EA shows already close to capacity and still good sales for Thursday

[AniNate]

They knew what they were doing timing the presale opening to the embargo drop

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

 

2.9 is expected I feel like if that number is sans EA. Hoping maybe @Shawn Robbins could shed some light here? If 2.9 includes EA then I would be very surprised

Been looking into it as well, will pass along when/if I hear anything. There's a chance they roll EA into the weekend but every studio is different and A24 is even harder to read sometimes.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

Challengers is selling VERY good, EA shows already close to capacity and still good sales for Thursday

Put anecdotal. Its definitely not close to selling out everywhere. So far release looks small. I am not buying a big OW at this point. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Put anecdotal. Its definitely not close to selling out everywhere. So far release looks small. I am not buying a big OW at this point. 

I double checked my locations and they had... five tickets total sold for EA.  LA looking good though and probably some of the big metros

[AniNate]

Yeah probably is gonna be more big city driven. A few tickets sold at some of the more glamorous theaters in the Cleveland area but definitely not much of a rush. Maybe that changes when promotion ramps up though, probably not the kind of movie people feel compelled to rush to buy tickets in advance for when they don't typically need to

[Flip]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Put anecdotal. Its definitely not close to selling out everywhere. So far release looks small. I am not buying a big OW at this point. 

Yeah asterisk that it’s going to play to metros heavily, good comp would be Don’t Worry Darling but ATP has surely grown a large amount since then

[AniNate]

Should have much better legs than DWD at least judging by the reception

[babz06]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Should have much better legs than DWD at least judging by the reception

DWD had 3.1m previews for a 19m OW and it’s legs were a 2.34 multipler. So definitely front loaded probably because of Harry Styles fans. 

[keysersoze123]

Dont Worry darling had a bigger cast. I was looking at presales for that movie and it wont be easy for Challengers to be that big. Let us wait and see close to release. 

[AniNate]

I think DWD was helped by morbid curiosity surrounding the ridiculous tabloid scandals involving its production in the two weeks before release. Ideally Challengers doesn't need to rely on anything like that to boost its box office hopes.

 

 

Edited April 12 by AniNate

[AniNate]

It looks like Cinemark's official site hasn't gotten the memo about the EA screenings, so that might also be worth taking into consideration reading into sales so far

[Bascafo]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Put anecdotal. Its definitely not close to selling out everywhere. So far release looks small. I am not buying a big OW at this point. 

You are wrong. https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=447345639&tid=AAORE&a=11533&mid=235807&chainCode=AMC&cmp=NSP_IMAX_.COM_challengers_NOWPLAYINGNEARME&sdate=2024-04-22+19%3A00&wssaffid=11533_IMAX(Desktop)&wssac=63&route=map-seat-map

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Bascafo said:

You are wrong. https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=447345639&tid=AAORE&a=11533&mid=235807&chainCode=AMC&cmp=NSP_IMAX_.COM_challengers_NOWPLAYINGNEARME&sdate=2024-04-22+19%3A00&wssaffid=11533_IMAX(Desktop)&wssac=63&route=map-seat-map

 

Yes, but that's the middle of Manhattan

 

Suburban Cleveland:

 

Choose Seats | Fandango

 

Edited April 12 by AniNate

[Bascafo]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

 

Yes, but that's the middle of Manhattan

 

Suburban Cleveland:

 

Choose Seats | Fandango

 

Well, he's saying everywhere...

[keysersoze123]

What I meant is its not behaving like a big breakout. I am sure anecdotally doing well in big cities. That does not make any movie a breakout. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
310	286	58195	0.49%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

(0.242x) of Civil War $703K

 

Has a good amount of showings but no early signs of a breakout. It's still very early though 

Edited April 12 by TheFlatLannister

[jeffthehat]

6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Could be the movie was VERY over indexed at MTC1, maybe due to limited geography appeal, maybe due to very limited GA, etc...

Overindexed MTC1 more than expected but pretty sure the $2.9m was just Thu. Would have to be a bigger MTC1 overindex than Monkey Man for <$2.9m true Thu to be possible and none of the data here suggested that. 

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	38	29	58	4032	1.44
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters	18	96	324	2004	16.17
TOTALS:	56	125	382	6036	6.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		30	13	51.72
MTC1:		41	22	70.69
Alamo:		17	8	29.31
Other chains:		0	-1	0

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Thursday comp:

0.67x Trolls: $875k (17 theaters)

Monkey Man: Missed

0.42x Argylle: $710k (17 theaters)

0.21x Napoleon (TUE): $640k (17 theaters)

 

EA Comp:

0.4x Trolls Sat EA: $445k (17 theaters)

0.45x MI7 EA: $905k (17 theaters)

0.3x Dune Part 2 EA: $595k (17 theaters)

 

Will try to give a T-1 update for EA tomorrow, maybe around $500k for that (ATP is lower than other EA due to no PLFs)?

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Early Access (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Saturday April 13 EA: 18 theaters	18	43	367	2004	18.31

 

EA Comps:

2.57x Civil War EA: $835k (using Keyser's $325k estimate)

1.83x The Beekeeper EA: ??? (Never reported)

0.36x Trolls Sat EA: $420k (17 theaters)

0.42x MI7 EA: $845k (17 theaters)

 

Lower PLF than Civil War or MI7, but still maybe 500-600k in EA. EA numbers are more prone to variance because of number of locations and all that however.