The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

I do think Bad Boys is gonna be disproportionately big city driven

[emoviefan]

 BB ROD WOM seems to be great. It will have summer weekdays and like no competition for the R rated action comedy audience like at all until D &W hits 7 weeks from now. With the budget being kept close to the same it will be fine. The overall marketplace yeah not so much if this does not break out past 50 this weekend. 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, dallas said:

I don't think Bad Boys will have any issue crossing 50M. This is a backloaded franchise, we've seen how much projections have risen in just the past 24 hours. I think much of the apprehension here comes from the fact that a lot of movies have underperformed recently. Which, although a fair concern, is not one that I express in regards to a film part of a franchise as strong as Bad Boys, especially once you consider that the few successful films this year are, in fact, franchise films. 

 

TMobile deals also tend to backload a weekend.  When you can pay $5 no matter the seat and show, Friday night and Saturday night seats become highly desired vs Thursday ones...

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, this whole week I’ve been eyeballing for BB4 an approximate $6M Thur, 8.5x IM for a $50M or so OW

 

Will (probably) have thoughts on the other majors sometime tomorrow 
 

  Reveal hidden contents

Just a heads up, some of you may be less than enthralled…

 

 

So, if it's the 2 kid movies, I'm probably with you...b/c this is not the summer of kid...at least not yet...

[Kon]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

 BB ROD WOM seems to be great. It will have summer weekdays and like no competition for the R rated action comedy audience like at all until D &W hits 7 weeks from now. With the budget being kept close to the same it will be fine. The overall marketplace yeah not so much if this does not break out past 50 this weekend. 

Lack of competition or even good reviews don't guarantee good legs. We have already seen movies fulfilling these conditions, but getting poor legs.

 

Movies really need to spark interest on the audience.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-47

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
520	1344	102453	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

(0.694x) of Ghostbusters $3.26M 

(1.047x) of Quiet place day one $???

(0.664x) of Dune 2 $6.18M

(0.876x) of Apes $4.38M
Comps AVG: $4.61M 

 

With a long presales window, this is actually pretty good? Nothing crazy, but still much better than even I anticipated. 

[todos]

Ready for the predictable IO2 doom gloom posts now.

[AnthonyJPHer]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, if it's the 2 kid movies, I'm probably with you...b/c this is not the summer of kid...at least not yet...

I think it has to be something else right? Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2’s presales so far are good. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I think it has to be something else right? Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2’s presales so far are good. 

 

I just don't expect the GA walk ups on weekends.  I mean, you'll still get daily swim teams and summer camps, but families just are gonna decide their kid can go on a weekday matinee without them...and they can hit the pool on weekends instead...

 

And for DM4, it's gonna need the same 13-25 base that carried it last time...it's hard to keep that base happy in an animated...and without them, you're looking at a big drop.  If they are in, or mostly in, yeah, we could see a great number...we'll see if they are still in...

 

IO2 I think is safer (Disney's adult base is at least almost always in), but starts from a lower predicted number right now...

 

It's unfortunate that you can't go wrong going low on family drawing movies this year DOM, but it is what it is...

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

One thing I will say for Bad Boys is that it is Game 1 of a fairly well hyped Finals tonight, and obviously there's alot of audience overlap of young and non-white crowds there. So despite my doubts I can see some backloading towards Friday and Saturday.

Edited June 7 by Cmasterclay

[AniNate]

If anything the kids movies seem like the closest things to safe bets this summer. It's the adult action movies that have really been disappointing so far.

 

Of course in this climate I wouldn't rule out any movie being overestimated.

 

 

Edited June 7 by AniNate

[dallas]

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

Tickets Sold: 113

Growth: n/a

% PLF: 36.3%

5 theaters/34 showtimes

 

Comps:

(7.533x) of Migration - $11.3M

(2.825x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 - $10.74M

COMPS AVG - $11.02M

 

This one's doing great in my area. If all goes well, this should pass 90M OW and possible even 100M if the pace accelerates. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

Tickets Sold: 113

Growth: n/a

% PLF: 36.3%

5 theaters/34 showtimes

 

Comps:

(7.533x) of Migration - $11.3M

(2.825x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 - $10.74M

COMPS AVG - $11.02M

 

This one's doing great in my area. If all goes well, this should pass 90M OW and possible even 100M if the pace accelerates. 

So maybe the concern that's brewing around here is a little overblown.

[Eric is Quiet]

Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second  

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Eric Burnett said:

Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second  

 

He was kind of asking for wild speculation with that addendum at the end

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second  

Everybody is way too on edge about the BO right now. Can we just flash forward to the end of July.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second  

 

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

He was kind of asking for wild speculation with that addendum at the end

 

Live look at @M37's reaction to all the chaos he has wrought. 

 

(said with ❤️ as you well know 👍)

[dallas]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

So maybe the concern that's brewing around here is a little overblown.

Perhaps, but at the end of the day, this is just the data I'm seeing from my area. Presales in other regions have been a lot lower than what I'm seeing, and in others, a bit higher. Regardless, this movie isn't going to flop if it doesn't break 90M in its OW, so I don't see a need for doom and gloom right now. 

[TheFlatLannister]

56 minutes ago, todos said:

Ready for the predictable IO2 doom gloom posts now.

It's doing phenomenal in Florida at least

Haven't updated in a while but...

(3.312x) of KFP4 $12.59M

(5.748x) of Garfield $10.92M

Comps AVG: $11.76M 

 

Excellent pace these past couple of days. With a strong final push, I don't think a $100M OW is too crazy to ask for 

Edited June 7 by TheFlatLannister

[AniNate]

I would be less than enthralled if comps got too high. Don't want to give people an excuse to still call it a bomb if it does end up only opening to that $85 mil it was tracking at before.