The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

Apologies if I sound dumb, but we're talking around $24M as of right now since both Dune: Part Two and Inside Out 2 did $12M in previews?

No, comping with T-7 dune and inside out gives me $41.4M and $80.59M respectively. Hence why both aren't good comps. Marvel films presales are simply on a different level. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/17/2024 at 8:06 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows Final - 40735/104687 835834.35 428 shows +14210

Previews(T-1) - 58915/719176 1074590.83 3979 shows +11000

Friday - 64710/1144290 1140345.38 6361 shows +13340

 

MTC2 Early shows Final - 25025/43124 406554.36 274 shows

 

Thinking it can do 2.25m for early shows and may be 8m for previews including early shows. I think low 60s OW is possible.  

Twisters MTC1

Previews Final - 121525/721168 2076987.81 4002 shows +62610

Friday - 96818/1148485 1656206.16 6404 shows +32108

 

Terrific final day. Just about matched Apes at a bigger level. I would have guessed around 7m thursday along with 2.25m yesterday. But rehypc is thinking 7.5m+ and so its under indexing at MTC1 big time.

 

Friday makes me think it can do 20m True Friday. 70m+ OW is in play !!! 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

No, comping with T-7 dune and inside out gives me $41.4M and $80.59M respectively. Hence why both aren't good comps. Marvel films presales are simply on a different level. 

Dune isn't actually bad comp especially since its over-indexed for you right?

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

No, comping with T-7 dune and inside out gives me $41.4M and $80.59M respectively. Hence why both aren't good comps. Marvel films presales are simply on a different level. 

 

Ok, thanks for clarifying that. 

 

Also, God that Inside Out 2 number is insane to look at. Lol!

[Migs20242]

 

 

 

Edited July 19 by Migs20242

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

JATINDER on X: “Looks like $9.5M previews for #Twisters, including early shows. Initial audience reception very positive. Expecting $61-65M weekend.”

 

 

 

[Migs20242]

3 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

JATINDER on X: “Looks like $9.5M previews for #Twisters, including early shows. Initial audience reception very positive. Expecting $61-65M weekend.”

 

 

 

Maybe 65-73 million for Twisters OW

Edited July 19 by Migs20242

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday - 96818/1148485 1656206.16 6404 shows +32108

After great Friday increases, last 2 days have been just okay. It's just around AQP when prior to that was well ahead of it.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	14	37	6411	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		30	14	81.08
Other chains:		7	0	18.92

 

Comps:

2.85x Abigail: $2.85 Million

4.11 Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $3.49 Million

 

I will have better comps for this later, a lot of these smaller movies I don't track until later

 

It Ends With Us (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	63	43	94	6274	1.5
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	9	19	55	946	5.81
TOTALS:	72	62	149	7220	2.06

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		17	9	18.09
Other chains:		77	42	81.91

 

Comps (Total THU + EA):

0.69x Fall Guy: $2.18 Million

 

Absolutely rubbish comp, I'll have better stuff closer to release date. This is doing really good in only 2 days of sales

[John Marston]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Previews Final - 121525/721168 2076987.81 4002 shows +62610

Friday - 96818/1148485 1656206.16 6404 shows +32108

 

Terrific final day. Just about matched Apes at a bigger level. I would have guessed around 7m thursday along with 2.25m yesterday. But rehypc is thinking 7.5m+ and so its under indexing at MTC1 big time.

 

Friday makes me think it can do 20m True Friday. 70m+ OW is in play !!! 

 

 

 

 

someone says 42m and another person says maybe 70m lol

[keysersoze123]

Who is saying 42m. Cannot be a serious prediction for sure. 

[Rorschach]

10 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Twisters (Thursday Afternoon Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 323/3,307 (7.2% sold) [+84]

4 IMAX showings: 56/1,552

3 XD showings: 37/714

12 2D showings: 230/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $11.45M

Furiosa: $10.09M

Avg: $10.77M

Twisters (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 667/4,519 (8% sold) [+304]

5 IMAX showings: 149/1,940

5 XD showings: 155/1,190

15 2D showings: 363/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $51.19M

Furiosa: $35.18M

Avg: $43.19M

 

Midwest go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!

 

 

Uh, idk man. I guess, divide that average in half and that's probably my rough guess for True Friday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It Ends with Us MiniTC2 T-22 Days

 

EA - 155/1513 (10 showings)
Previews - 143/17424 (97 showings)

 

Amazing start to sales.

Checked few key AMCs. Hardly sold anything there. Guess I am gonna overindex BIGly.

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Twisters MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

EA - 2315/4508 (14 showings) $37K

 

Previews - 3025/64144 (242 showings)

Friday - 4841/145107 (592 showings)

 

Comps - (inc EA) & Friday

Transformers 6 - $7.3M & $16.7M

Apes - $8.6M & $18M

 

I have an Oklahoma location, which is overindexing. Generally, it is low on pre-sales and does better in walkups. For Friday it has 250 sales which is more than one California locs that is normally among the top 3 locs of the chain.

 

In comparison, for Deadpool 3 Friday OK locs has 54 sales while California one has 1584.

Twisters MiniTC2 Final

 

Previews - 12012/65100 (246 showings) $150K

 

Normally be $7-7.5M, which seems about fine. 

[Porthos]

On 7/18/2024 at 2:59 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	293	29284	37599	8315	22.11%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	319
Total Seats Sold Today	294

 

T-8 Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.78		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	39.38%		24.76m
L&T	104.80		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	49.02%		30.39m
BP2	99.18		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	49.49%		27.77m
AM3	143.78		207	5783		0/237	26881/32664	17.70%		10475	79.38%		25.16m
GOTG3	188.59		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	77.35%		33.00m
Bats	167.10		175	4976		0/297	31814/36790	13.53%		11757	70.72%		36.09m
Ava 2	212.01		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	92.53%		36.04m
Dune 2	298.89		129	2782		0/172	22131/24913	11.17%		6001	138.56%		35.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1931/13029  [14.82% sold]
Matinee:    551/4466  [12.34% | 6.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             979/7488  [13.07% | 11.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3659/11729  [31.20% | 44.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     275 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     292 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.64709x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [40.12m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	296	29157	37847	8690	22.96%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	248
Total Seats Sold Today	375

 

T-7 Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.20		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	41.15%		24.91m
L&T	105.03		340	8274		0/240	24544/32818	25.21%		16962	51.23%		30.46m
BP2	99.78		325	8709		2/308	29418/38127	22.84%		16800	51.73%		27.94m
AM3	145.22		201	5984		0/237	26674/32658	18.32%		10475	82.96%		25.41m
GOTG3	187.65		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	80.84%		32.84m
Bats	167.70		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	73.91%		36.22m
Ava 2	209.20		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	96.71%		35.56m
Wick 4	498.28		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	159.51%		44.35m
Dune 2	295.68		157	2939		0/181	22782/25721	11.43%		6001	144.81%		35.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2049/13029  [15.73% sold]
Matinee:     576/4466  [12.90% | 6.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:             1021/7488  [13.64% | 11.75% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3763/11729  [32.08% | 43.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]

DP3 sold     343 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     348 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS         
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.6535x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [40.28m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

[Cooper Legion]

Wick is right in line with the rest in terms of size:comp fit. Sacto starting to right size a little bit, though I don’t think the size adj comp will move past 30 until midweek (currently 28.5, basically same as t-14).

[vafrow]

MTC4 website and app is down this morning. I'm guessing it'll be up soon, but it's not great to be down going into a busy summer weekend.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

MTC4 website and app is down this morning. I'm guessing it'll be up soon, but it's not great to be down going into a busy summer weekend.

Probably related to the Microsoft bug.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Probably related to the Microsoft bug.

My thought too, though not Microsoft btw, but CrowdStrike Falcon. Has to be corrected manually for most PCs. MTC1-3 and Fandango sites are all still up 

 

(If one had plans to fly today, good luck…)

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

1992 T-43: 20.08% Awareness, 45.16% Interest

Megalopolis T-71: 16.76% Awareness, 38.8% Interest

The Wild Robot T-71: 21.35% Awareness, 38.9% Interest

Flight Risk T-92: 22.14% Awareness, 46.33% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-99: 45.86% Awareness, 54.52% Interest

Paddington in Peru T-183: 28.75% Awareness, 35.25% Interest

 

Twisters T-1: 62.08% Awareness, 59.57% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M 

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-8: 69.24% Awareness, 68.4% Interest

Final Awareness: 29% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 50% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

The Crow T-36: 33.18% Awareness, 44.86% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 90M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

The Forge T-36: 14.98% Awareness, 39.92% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 25% chance of 10M