The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

+45502

HOLY SHIT.

[THUNDER BIRD]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

HOLY SHIT.

I don't know what that means, but it's something good i think.

[benny90210]

Just saw D&W in my country, here's my 2c: Cool film, not mind-bogglingly insanely good, but very good and more importantly highly watchable and enjoyable, 8/10 for me as something of a GA member and not much of a Marvel fan. RT's rating has been hovering around 79-84% where it will likely stay, CS hasn't given their verdict but an A-/A is highly likely I think (outside chance of an A+). Given my take on the film's quality, the hype around it, and the tracking data in this thread & elsewhere, I think $185-$205M domestic OW is highly likely, outside chance it of being just out of that range on either side.

Just an internet strangers opinion, but they did some good work here. 

Edited July 24 by benny90210

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Deadpool and Wolverine MTC1 T-2

Thu: 388695/1486860 6814215.26 9866 shows +45502

Fri: 276364/1850200 4842263.60 11386 shows (+121628 in 5 days)

 

Another great day, outpacing all 2022 comps and not far behind NWH, which had an Atom deal. Fri ratio is also better than Thor 4.

 

Can we have comparaison for Friday with Thor 4 , BP2 and DS2

[Menor the Destroyer]

37 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Can we have comparaison for Friday with Thor 4 , BP2 and DS2

Thor 4: 220,234

BP2: 415kish

[vafrow]

Borderlands is up on MTC4. It's playing on all five theatres in my sample. It's on 7 screens across the five screen radius. Tickets went up this morning. I saw one ticket sold.

 

Given the other wide studio releases that haven't gotten full advance showings during the month of August, it's noteworthy that it's this film getting the push from the chain.

 

Trap and Harold didn't get advance ticket listings, and only limited screens. Alien Romulus has advanced tickets, but also limited screens (but selling ridiculously well).

 

It Ends with Us is similar, advance tickets and EA, but only limited screens.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

Previews - 26879/161366 (796 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $40M

Thor 4 - $39M 

GoTG 3 - $38M

 

Nearly 4K tix sold today. Should aim for close to 6K+ tomorrow, possibly closer to 7K.

 

Last 5 days sales

 

Deadpool 3 - 11022
DSitMoM - 10421
Thor 4 - 6707
Black Panther 2 - 6256
GoTG 3 - 4873
 

 

 

Since this is headed towards mid 30s add DS2 comps.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since this is headed towards mid 30s add DS2 comps.

Right now $29M without ATP adj.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 7/22/2024 at 3:35 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Trying to finish filling out my sheets, did we ever find out how much Fly Me to the Moon and/or Maxxxine and/or The Garfield Movie gross in EA? Maybe @Shawn Robbins heard something (sorry I feel like I'm always bugging you about this!)

 

Just hurts when I track something and then never actually find out how much it made  

Sadly, the studios never reported those. We're probably at the mercy of guesstimates for them.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

@Porthos What is the finish of NWH in total ?

 

%

Sold T-2

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

NWH

56.41

1659

23106

1/368

18946/42052

54.95%

28183

46.25%

28.20m

 

 

 

 

 

[Geo1500]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Could Deadpool push for $40M previews? That would be bonkers 

 

The floor is 35M as we speak but with still 2 days of ticket sells left plus walk-ups I think it can even push for 50m as the WoM and hype on the ground is Insanely high. 

 

195m to 220m is on the card and between 450m to 500m WW opening 

Edited July 24 by Geo1500

[VanillaSkies]

12 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

The floor is 35M as we speak but with still 2 days of ticket sells left plus walk-ups I think it can even push for 50m as the WoM and hype on the ground is Insanely high. 

 

195m to 220m is on the card and between 450m to 500m WW opening 

There is no data indicating it will make anywhere near 50 million for previews. Mid-30s is where most of our insanely accurate trackers here are seeing it. 40 million would be  a surprise to the upside not out of the realm of possibility,  it 50 seems much too hard where things currently stand.

 

The good news is that 40 million previews would still likely land it in that 200 million opening weekend your discussing.

Edited July 24 by VanillaSkies

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

Borderlands T-16: 37.12% Awareness, 45.59% Interest

Cuckoo T-16: 18.4% Awareness, 42.25% Interest

It Ends with Us T-16: 26.81% Awareness, 42.37% Interest

Killer's Game T-51: 18.12% Awareness, 41.81% Interest

Smile 2 T-86: 37.93% Awareness, 46.23% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-142: 22.8% Awareness, 39.93% Interest

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-2: 71.72% Awareness, 69.99% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

1992 T-37: 20.08% Awareness, 44.6% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Afraid T-37: 15.52% Awareness, 42.27% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M

 

Never Let Go T-65: 21.59% Awareness, 45.13% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M

[AniNate]

Weekend Forecast: Marvel’s DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE Ramping Up for Biggest Box Office Debut Since 2022, Top R-Rated Opening Ever at $171M+ – Box Office Theory

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

%

Sold T-2

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

NWH

56.41

1659

23106

1/368

18946/42052

54.95%

28183

46.25%

28.20m

 

 

 

 

 

Ok Thank you , clearly D&W will finish more stronger than MOM and NWH , clearly my projection for 19k-20k total stays for me . Clearly the Wednesday update will be very important

[Grand Cine]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Weekend Forecast: Marvel’s DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE Ramping Up for Biggest Box Office Debut Since 2022, Top R-Rated Opening Ever at $171M+ – Box Office Theory

Clearly the projections are way too stronger for all of the movie ( unless D&W and Twisters ) for me , but if it's true , he could be incredible holds with this competition

Edited July 24 by Grand Cine

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, KelsieWarner said:

This thread is always a goldmine for keeping up with the latest box office trends and predictions. It's fascinating to see how pre-sales are shaping up for upcoming releases. Anyone have any early predictions for the biggest hits of the summer?

For the rest of the year, I would bet on Gladiator, Moana, Lion king to have super strong presales

 

 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local Regal (WED) (5:30pm)

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 1544/ 6597 (24 showings)

+24.11% from Tues

1 showtime added

 

RPX: 560 / 960  (13.36%)

3D: 119/744  (+32.22%)

2D: 865/4893 (+31%)

Total= 1544/ 6597

 

COMPS:
Joker: $37.89m (R)

Black Widow: $62.52m (PG-13)

GOTG3: $55.25m (PG-13)

Barbie: $39.85m (PG-13)
D.Strange: $27.61m (PG-13)

AEG: $19.09m (PG-13) (at 88%+ capacity)

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Clearly the projections are way too stronger for all of the movie ( unless D&W and Twisters ) for me , but if it's true , he could be incredible holds with this competition

 

The top 7 all fill a specific niche I feel, though I am kinda skeptical about Bad Boys being able to drop <50% just because I feel like it's gonna lose a lot of theaters this weekend.

[Ryan C]

I'm now seeing more and more showtimes being added for Deadpool & Wolverine at my local theaters. That, and showtimes in other locations that go as late as 3:00 AM. 

 

I know this is usually done with the most hyped Marvel movies, but it's definitely encouraging to see this and if walk-up business is as good as hoped, I expect them to start packing in seats. 

Edited July 24 by Ryan C