The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

I almost don't want to report about my mini-counting of Deadpool and Wolverine because it's such a negative outlier. Later today I will count its presales in another theater (probably in California) for some correction/redemption. 

 

It had yesterday in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY 1.344 sold tickets for Thursday (20 shows, almost all (very) crowded - maybe it also doesn't get enough shows).

Of course that's per se a very nice number but the average number from 4 comps (Uncharted, John Wick 4, TSS and SC) is only 23.9M. 🤨

 

I think the main explanation for this underperformance is that this AMC is very action and adventure-affine. 

Let's see how it looks today in another big theater. 

Edited July 25 by el sid

[VanillaSkies]

46 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

Taylor Swift just promoted DW on her Instagram, so be wary of any spike in presales in the next few hours.

I was actually coming here to say just that. I know it’s half joking, but swifties support everything she supports. She even posted a link to buy tickets. It will be impossible to measure impact today with so much going on, but I’m sure it will have a small impact with women moviegoers. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

50 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I was actually coming here to say just that. I know it’s half joking, but swifties support everything she supports. She even posted a link to buy tickets. It will be impossible to measure impact today with so much going on, but I’m sure it will have a small impact with women moviegoers. 

Her concert 1st day presales were stronger than NWH because of her fanbase, so while I’m not expecting a massive bump off of this it could very well move the needle a few million dollars.

[Eric Deetz]

1 hour ago, XXR & Friends said:

Taylor Swift just promoted DW on her Instagram, so be wary of any spike in presales in the next few hours.

This is like when Oprah endorsed Obama.

[VanillaSkies]

Seeing some 2am and 3am showtimes being added for tonight now, with some seats already sold. I think that speaks to a continued wave of buying and the expectation that it will stay strong throughout tonight and the weekend. Great to see!

[jeffthehat]

On 7/23/2024 at 4:57 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Deadpool & Wolverine T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
11131	68102	432

TC = 28

Comp

4.19x Dune 2 T-2 = $41.9m

14.20x Furiosa T-2 = $49.7m

 

Will drop Furiosa tomorrow. Kept pace with Dune 2

 

Indiana

Deadpool & Wolverine T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
16584	68959	452

TC = 28

Comps

4.49x Dune 2 T-0 = $44.9m

16.61x Furiosa T-0 = $58.2m

 

Adjusting Dune 2 for $9.3m previews still gives $40m+ 😮 It's probably the only usuable thing I have, but I left Furiosa in so you could see how much it's grown against another frontloaded movie

 

Overall I suspect it's overperforming here, but hard to tell without better comps. The average of all T-0's I have from this year is ~$50m, but they're mostly walkup heavy films. Twisters and Longlegs seemed to overperform here as well, and they both show ~$43m. Obviously this won't have walkups like those, but ATP might close the gap a bit. 

 

Guessing high-30s, but wouldn't be surprised if it pushes to $40m+

 

Edited July 25 by jeffthehat

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
331	17974	70803	25.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

17

*3 sellouts

COMPS

T-1

(1.917x) of GOTG 3 $36.91M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.229x) of Barbenheimer $38.84M

 

Comps AVG: $37.88M

Wow just outstanding. Absolutely demolished GOTG vol 3. I would say $35M previews is the floor. $38M looks likely and $40M is becoming a reality. 

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
331	21522	70803	30.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3548

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*4 sellouts

COMPS

T-0

(1.992x) of GOTG 3 $38.31M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary adjustment) 

(1.152x) of Barbenheimer $36.40M

 

Comps AVG: $37.36M

 

Just insane growth. It was at 1.7x of GOTG two days ago. Now it is 2x GOTG vol 3 final count. Staying with yesterday projection. $35M floor, $37M likely, $40M very possible 

[Porthos]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	359	25967	41392	15425	37.27%

 

Total Net Showings Removed Today	1
Total Net Seats Removed Today	928
Total Net Seats Sold Today	2391

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	61.54		1961	25067		0/373	16985/42052	59.61%		28183	54.73%		30.77m
MoM	84.44		1695	18267		0/404	28068/46335	39.42%		21117	73.05%		30.40m
L&T	114.12		2246	13516		0/312	25975/39491	34.23%		16962	90.94%		33.10m
BP2	113.24		1695	13622		2/375	29516/43138	31.58%		16800	91.82%		31.71m
AM3	178.24		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	147.26%		31.19m
GOTG3	184.44		1174	8363		0/343	33312/41675	20.07%		10750	143.49%		32.28m
AtSV	219.26		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	158.30%		38.04m
Bats	161.70		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	131.20%		34.93m
Ava 2	213.02		971	7241		0/309	27735/34976	20.70%		8986	171.66%		36.21m
Wick 4	394.00		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	283.13%		35.07m
Dune 2	307.88		577	5010		0/242	25728/30738	16.30%		6001	257.04%		36.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      4041/12504  [32.32% sold]
Matinee:    1220/4223  [28.89% | 7.91% of all tickets sold]
3D:             2079/7617  [27.29% | 13.48% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         5439/11103  [48.99% | 35.26% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     2236 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     2267 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.75313x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [42.71m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%] [lol]

 

====

 

Who knew the difference between a record breaking day and not was the difference between 81 RT and 79 RT?

 

AND PEOPLE DOUBT THE POWAH OF TOMATO LAW!!1!!

 

---

 

All kidding aside, what is there to say?  Just a monster of a penultimate day.  Mind, it needed a monster day to move some of those comps/keep pace with the more backloaded ones.  But still managed to do it.  Might be enough for me to start eyeing 36m+ as the target locally instead of 35m.

 

Only other thing to note is that this would have been a 2400+ seat sold day, but I had to remove six showings (totally 19 tickets sold) from a theater which yanked some showtimes.  It's what I would term a "troubled theater" in town and I suspect it's either staffing issues or projector problems or just trying to keep the lights on.  Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I must admit 24xx probably was a bit more ascetically pleasing than 239x.

 

Now we see just where this plane lands, tomorrow.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:35pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	360	24411	41421	17010	41.07%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	29
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1585

 

T-0 Comp (Mid-Day)

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH [11:30-12:40]	64.37		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	60.36%		32.19m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	87.41		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	80.55%		31.47m
L&T [11:30-12:25]	114.12		1390	14906		0/313	24653/39559	37.68%		16962	100.28%		33.09m
BP2 [11:30-12:20]	115.35		1125	14747		2/375	28391/43138	34.19%		16800	101.25%		32.30m
AM3 [11:30-12:25]	181.11		738	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	162.39%		31.69m
GOTG3 [11:30-12:15]	184.91		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	158.23%		32.36m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	210.83		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	174.57%		36.58m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	162.34		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	144.68%		35.07m
Ava 2 [11:30-12:15]	215.13		666	7907		0/310	27128/35035	22.57%		8986	189.29%		36.57m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:20]	391.48		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	312.22%		34.84m
Dune 2 [11:40-12:20]	315.35		384	5394		0/244	25489/30883	17.47%		6001	283.45%		37.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     4607/12504  [36.84% sold]
Matinee:    1471/4223  [34.83% | 8.65% of all tickets sold]
3D:            2397/7617  [31.47% | 14.09% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        5866/11103  [52.83% | 34.49% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     1456 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     1483 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.70995x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [41.66m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%] [lol]

 

====

 

Very strong start to the day, as expected.  Still looking like Sacramento is pointing to 35m-36m, if I use the higher ATP movies as a guide post, but could pip into the 36-37 range depending on how strong the rest of the day is.  Still not entirely sure how much I want to adjust for ATP hikes and slightly fewer kids tickets sold, but that's what those higher end comps are for.

 

Either way, selling like pancakes chimichangas out here in the land of tomatoes. 👍

[abracadabra1998]

14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	475	2207	14575	62502	23.32

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6539	663	44.86
MTC1:		5134	730	35.22
Other chains:		9441	1477	64.78

 

Comps:

9.74x Furiosa: $34.08 Million

2.49x Dune Part 2 (THU): $24.89 Million (17 theaters)

5.44x Marvels: $35.91 Million (17 theaters)

1.53x Barbie: $32.42 Million (17 theaters)

 

Pretty good final day, couldn't keep up with Barbie but after all very few movies could do that. My comps are pointing to around $35 Million but 1. I have shitty comps and 2. this seems to be running hotter elsewhere. I will have a T-1 Hour update but my comps are even worse for that sadly. 

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	477	2992	17567	62677	28.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		7404	865	42.15
MTC1:		5816	682	33.11
Other chains:		11751	2310	66.89

 

T-1 Hour Comps:

4.07x Twisters (w/ EA): $43.58 Million

12.57x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $39.58 Million

3.35x MI7 (w/ EA): $30.13 Million*

5.28x Indiana Jones 5: $38.04 Million

 

*No ATP adjustment, previews for this did land on a Tuesday with its various discounts

 

 

Like I said yesterday, shitty comps  before I looked I was thinking Indy 5 would be the one I would look at the closest, and that does feel like the most apt number, thinking about my comps from yesterday. Looking at The Marvels yesterday and Indy today, could see anything from $35-38 Million possible. Don't know about $40 Million from here. Also do not feel comfortable making specific predictions with my set of comps, but I'll just say I'm both glad this is over and also that I'm happy to have this for future MCU/huge blockbuster use!

 

[dallas]

What is Trap looking like?

[AniNate]

This definitely doesn't seem like a count that would justify giving it a full slate of screenings at every theater. Wonder if they will still be inclined to give Inside Out 2 a few of those

 

 

[Box Office Hit]

 

[el sid]

Deadpool and Wolverine had counted today for today in the AMC Metreon in San Francisco 2.104 sold tickets (36 shows). 

 

But I'm sorry, this week my numbers aren't helpful. The comparison numbers are either too bad (mostly) or too good (JWD).

 

At least the average number today makes a bit more sense than yesterday but not much: 28.6M compared to The Creator, TSS, JWD, Uncharted and SC (I also don't have many good comps because I counted for Friday). Without The Creator which had bad walk-ups it would be 33.4M. 

As I said, not very helpful .

 

Edited July 25 by el sid

[TalismanRing]

22 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Local Regal (WED) (5:30pm)

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 1544/ 6597 (24 showings)

+24.11% from Tues

1 showtime added

 

RPX: 560 / 960  (13.36%)

3D: 119/744  (+32.22%)

2D: 865/4893 (+31%)

Total= 1544/ 6597

 

COMPS:
Joker: $37.89m (R)

Black Widow: $62.52m (PG-13)

GOTG3: $55.25m (PG-13)

Barbie: $39.85m (PG-13)
D.Strange: $27.61m (PG-13)

AEG: $19.09m (PG-13) (at 88%+ capacity)

 

NYC Local Regal (WED) (3pm)

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 2264/6346 (23showings)

+46.63% from Tues

1 showtime subtracted

 

RPX: 612/960 (+9.28%)

3D: 237/744  (+99.15%)

2D:  1415/4638 (+63.58%)

Total: 2264/6346

 

 

COMPS:
Joker: $39.62m (R)

K: POTA: $46.32375 (PG-13)

Black Widow: $59.53m (PG-13)

GOTG3: $58.49m (PG-13)

Barbie: $40.29m (PG-13)
D.Strange2: $31.57m (PG-13)

Spiderverse 2: $44.25m (PG-13)

AEG: $27.79m (PG-13)

Dune 2: $96.95M (R)

 

• Dune 2 is a ridiculous outlier
• AEG are Wed #s but using it at the very base since AEG had very slim room for walk-ups with 88%+ capacity n/incl wheelchair & comp seats at 5-6% so 93-95%.  Mostly 3d front row seats at 12am left.  With ATP about 19%+ since 2019 - $33m COMP w/o much walkups
• D. Strange 2 had a slower  27.23% raise from Wed compared to D&W - as well as the last week overall so I think D&W will pass it today.
• Barbie was hitting capacity with Oppenheimer taking screens that I think it's walk up are a better comp than other PG-13 CBMs like GOTG3 and BW
• Basically saying I think D&W will hit the high 30s to low 40s in previews 🤷‍♀️

 

Edited July 25 by TalismanRing

[Flip]

30 minutes ago, Box Office Hit said:

 

400 theaters less than Knock at the Cabin is disappointing 

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, Flip said:

400 theaters less than Knock at the Cabin is disappointing 

Theater counts are usually higher than estimates. And Knock at the Cabin wasn't competing with a juggernaut like DP3

[Caption Action 3]

Open caption ticket sales picked up quickly close to the release date for Deadpool & Wolverine. Now past a 10.00 ticket to screentime threshold, largely because of New York and Chicago. Hopefully there's enough theaters in this data pool (162) to dilute the huge bump from New York and Chicago (e.g., 115 tickets sold at AMC Lincoln Square in NYC). It will go higher because many OC screentimes for today have not closed yet;  next post will be if the ticket to screentime ratio climbs to 15.00 or higher. So looks like 5.00 is now the threshold for selling decently, and 10.00 is the threshold to determine if it is a blockbuster. Should the threshold for a blockbuster be higher than 10.00?

Deadpool and Wolverine – Nationwide OC
# of Tickets/# of Markets	1707	127	13.44
# of tickets/#of theaters	1707	162	10.54
#of tickets/#of screen times	1707	166	10.28
# of Zero solds/# of screen times	26	166	0.16

 

These are the open caption screenings for today included in the data pool:

 

Market	Theater	Time	Count
Aventura (FL)	AMC Aventura	7/25, 3:30 pm	37
Bradenton (FL)	AMC Bradenton	7/25, 5:00 pm	17
	AMC Summit	7/25, 4:30 pm	12
Boston	AMC Boston Common	7/25, 3:45 pm	57
		7/25, 9:45 pm	12
	AMC Chattanooga	7/25, 4:45 pm	10
	AMC River East	7/25, 6:30 pm	62
	AMC Concord Mills	7/25, 9:15 pm	24
	AMC Council Bluffs	7/25, 7:00 pm	33
Denver (CO)	AMC 9+CO10	7/25, 3:30 pm	35
	AMC Westgate	7/25, 3:45 pm	24
Hiram (GA)	AMC Hiram	7/25, 5:00 pm	6
	AMC Indianapolis 17	7/25, 5:30 pm	30
Jacksonville (FL)	AMC Regency	7/25, 7:00 pm	14
	AMC Newpark	7/25, 8:45 pm	48
	AMC Bay Terrace	7/25, 4:00 pm	73
	AMC Empire	7/25, 6:15 pm	72
	AMC Lincoln Square	7/25, 3:30 pm	115
Oldsmar (FL)	AMC Woodlands Square	7/25, 3:40 pm	16
	AMC Quail Springs	7/25, 5:45 pm	2
Olathe (KS)	AMC Dine-in Studio 28	7/25, 7:30 pm	27
Parker (CO)	AMC Twenty Mile	7/25, 6:00 pm	22
	AMC Dine-in Desert Ridge	7/25, 4:15 pm	30
Port St Lucie (FL)	AMC Port St Lucie	7/25, 5:00 pm	2
	AMC UTC 14	7/25, 3:30 pm	25
	AMC Fashion Valley	7/25, 3:15 pm	17
	AMC Streets of Woodfield	7/25, 5:30 pm	17
South Miami	AMC Sunset Place	7/25, 8:45 pm	22
	AMC Tallahassee (FL)	7/25, 8:00 pm	25
	AMC Webster	7/25, 5:30 pm	43
West Homestead (PA)	AMC Waterfront	7/25, 8:00 pm	40

 

 

 

 

 

[AniNate]

Definitely don't see much audience cannibalism going on with the Twisters screenings tonight, both 7pm showings filled to near capacity at 75 apiece

[AniNate]

Also 241 already sold for tomorrow

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/21/2024 at 10:50 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	33	70	6411	1.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		63	33	90
Other chains:		7	0	10

 

Comps:

2.33x Abigail: $2.33 Million

2.41x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.05 Million

4.93x Imaginary: $3.57 Million (17 theaters)

 

Imaginary is the one comp that is PG-13, so maybe a good sign? I'll keep adding more comps as we get closer to it.

 

Also, I noticed that this was on sale...

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 7 theaters	27	0	0	2530	0

 

Yeah, 0 tickets sold. But MTC1 doesn't have any showings on sale yet, same thing with a few other chains. And this is with only 11 days left. Total dump

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	56	126	6411	1.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		110	47	87.3
Other chains:		16	9	12.7

 

Comps:

2.52x Abigail: $2.52 Million

2.17x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.85 Million

3.3x Imaginary: $2.39 Million (17 theaters)

1.82x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $2.19 Million (17 theaters)

 

I will have better comps starting at T-4. It is doing quite well in MTC1 theaters but barely has sold anything in other chains

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	51	7	7	4462	0.16

 

Increased by infinity percent, can't ask for much better than that!

Edited July 25 by abracadabra1998