The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Quiet Place is the most encouraging comp for me. I think Trap might have a shot at 30M if this pace keeps up.

[DAJK]

If Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien all hit 30M+ in August it will be a pretty decent month.

[Migs20242]

 

[Cmasterclay]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien all hit 30M+ in August it will be a pretty decent month.

If this actually happens I would put a six month moratorium on bitching about the box office in any capacity I swear.

[abracadabra1998]

20 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If Trap, It Ends With Us, and Alien all hit 30M+ in August it will be a pretty decent month.

The latter 2 sure I could see it, but not convinced on Trap just yet

[Flip]

On 7/24/2024 at 11:54 PM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 Friday (T-2) 17 days of sales

 

56 showtimes/2600 tix sold (+1886)

 

4.19x Despicable Me 4 OD (T-2) [113.97m]

4.63x Longlegs Friday (T-1*) [32.46m]

 

*unfortunately I missed T-2 for Longlegs

Deadpool 3 Friday (T-1) 

 

56 showtimes/3326 tix sold (+726)

 

18.58x MaXXXine OD (T-1) [59.18m]

5.93x Longlegs Friday (T-1) [41.57m]

1.085x Deadpool 3 Previews (T-1) [~40.18m+]

 

DM4 comp is 88m so I removed it. Should be between Longlegs and MaXXXine, so I’d predict 54-57m

[Relevation]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If this actually happens I would put a six month moratorium on bitching about the box office in any capacity I swear.

After Twisters, IO2, Bad Boys, A Quiet Place, DM4, Longlegs, and DP&W, I’m just gonna assume explosive growth from early sales and very strong walkups is the default result for movies now rather than the exception for a lucky few hits

 

In which case Trap is opening to $30M, It Ends With Us is breaking $45M, Alien: Romulus is gonna clear $50M, and maybe there’s some hope for Borderlands 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

23 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If this actually happens I would put a six month moratorium on bitching about the box office in any capacity I swear.

Alright fellas all hands on deck for August.

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Alright fellas all hands on deck for August.

I actually do think It Ends With Us and Alien might get there, I am rooting the hardest for Trap but also doubt it the most.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I actually do think It Ends With Us and Alien might get there, I am rooting the hardest for Trap but also doubt it the most.

Yeah that’s valid, like I mentioned early tho if the pace is consistent it can reach that. Alien and Ends seem set tho.

[Yollten]

18 minutes ago, Relevation said:

After Twisters, IO2, Bad Boys, A Quiet Place, DM4, Longlegs, and DP&W, I’m just gonna assume explosive growth from early sales and very strong walkups is the default result for movies now rather than the exception for a lucky few hits

 

In which case Trap is opening to $30M, It Ends With Us is breaking $45M, Alien: Romulus is gonna clear $50M, and maybe there’s some hope for Borderlands 

Although stuff like The Bikeriders/Fly Me To The Moon/Horizon suggests that it doesn't apply for everything....just something that people actually care about.

Which tbf I think would apply to Trap, It Ends With Us and Romulus. Trap still needs good reviews to get a good OW though, and I'm kind of skeptical that it will.

 

Borderlands and The Crow look obvious bombs to me. Sorry Lionsgate.

[AnthonyJPHer]

August should be over 600m but could even exceed 750m if all goes well. Meaning Deadpool and Wolverine does about 200-250m, Twisters does 150-200m (doubtful for the latter number), all the holdovers from June and July do about 100m and the openers and stuff from August does about 160m, and maybe another 100m. So maybe August 2024 can even get to 810m. 

Edited July 26 by AnthonyJPHer

[Bob Train]

Alien would have to do really bad to miss $30m. Based off the big presales, It Ends With Us seems like it would do it although it may be frontloaded. I think Trap will open closer to Longlegs although with a big studio push it may do more. 

[Geo1500]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

After Twisters, IO2, Bad Boys, A Quiet Place, DM4, Longlegs, and DP&W, I’m just gonna assume explosive growth from early sales and very strong walkups is the default result for movies now rather than the exception for a lucky few hits

 

In which case Trap is opening to $30M, It Ends With Us is breaking $45M, Alien: Romulus is gonna clear $50M, and maybe there’s some hope for Borderlands 

 

I have hard time seeing ¨¨IT Ends with us¨ doing 30m let alone 45m Idk man it is romantic genre and haven´t seen a romantic movie break out since last years surprise ''Anyone but you'' and before that it was ''Crazy rich Asians'' imho I thought ''Upgraded'' was way better then Anyone but you anyways I got side tracked here back on topic. Romantic movies have been hit and miss I would say more miss then hit there was a six year gap between Anyone but you and Crazy Rich Asians.

 

The question is will ''It Ends with us'' have even a minor break out that is what I am not so sure about and the chances are very low and it has higher probability of going under the radar. 

 

Trap I could see making 30m or 35m. 

 

I agree with you on Alien: Romulus It can definitely clear 50m opening and even surprise with 60m or little bit higher. It has good young and fun cast like Archie Renaux. 

 

 

Edited July 26 by Geo1500

[CIDMoosa]

9 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I have hard time seeing ¨¨IT Ends with us¨ doing 30m let alone 45m Idk man it is romantic genre and haven´t seen a romantic movie break out since last years surprise ''Anyone but you'' and before that it was ''Crazy rich Asians'' imho I thought ''Upgraded'' was way better then Anyone but you anyways I got side tracked here back on topic. Romantic movies have been hit and miss I would say more miss then hit there was a six year gap between Anyone but you and Crazy Rich Asians.

 

The question is will ''It Ends with us'' have even a minor break out that is what I am not so sure about and the chances are very low and it has higher probability of going under the radar. 

 

Trap I could see making 30m or 35m. 

 

I agree with you on Alien: Romulus It can definitely clear 50m opening and even surprise with 60m or little bit higher. It has good young and fun cast like Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, Cailee Spaeny etc etc. 

 

 

It Ends with Us definitely has more chances of crossing 30m OW than not. Its presales have been among the best these year in many centers.

[TalismanRing]

It Ends With Us isn't a romance.  It's about domestic abuse and repeating patterns of one's parents.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

Borderlands, D1, T-15, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 0.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 3/15

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps 

1.000x BB:RoD for $5.9M

1.250x KOTPOTA for $6.3M

0.313x Furiosa for $1.5M

0.098x GxK for $1.0M

 

Average: $3.6M

 

I threw a bunch of comps at the wall and see what sticks, but nothing feels like the right match here.

 

 

Borderlands, D2, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 0.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 3/15

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps 

0.294x BB:RoD for $1.7M

0.385x KOTPOTA for $1.9M

0.263x Furiosa for $1.2M

0.074x GxK for $0.7M

 

Average: $1.4M

 

Well, Day 2 wasn't good for this. And with a short sales cycle, it's not going to get better when I switch to T minus comps on the weekend.

[Grand Cine]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:40pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of its screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	375	23316	42664	19348	45.35%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	15
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	1243
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	2338

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH [3:00-4:30]	68.65		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	68.65%		34.33m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	91.62		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	91.62%		32.98m
L&T [3:45-4:35]	114.07		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	114.07%		33.08m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	115.17		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	115.17%		32.25m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	184.71		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	184.71%		32.32m
GOTG3 [3:45-4:30]	179.98		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	179.98%		31.50m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	198.56		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	198.56%		34.45m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	164.57		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	164.57%		35.55m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	215.31		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	215.31%		36.60m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	355.14		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	355.14%		31.61m
Dune 2 [3:50-4:15]	322.41		607	6001		0/250	25311/31312	19.17%		6001	322.41%		38.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     5342/12504   [42.72% sold]
Matinee:    1868/4223  [44.23% | 9.65% of all tickets sold]
3D:            2822/7617   [37.05% | 14.59% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    6434/11103        [57.95% | 33.25% of all tickets sold]
———    
[NOT A COMP - INFO PURPOSES ONLY]    
DP3 sold     2112 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     2168 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    
***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.66379x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [40.53m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

=====

 

 

Had to jump alllll over my sheet to capture showtimes before they rolled off of availability.  Didn't help that there were a bunch of new showtimes over at MTC2 than Fandango didn't deign to tell me about.

 

What's that?  Don't care one whit about my troubles?  Don't blame you. 😛 

 

Just a monster monster monster day.  After collecting the wayward MTC2 showings, that was enough to make this yet another record half-day.  And easily so.   Still, I don't want to get too far ahead of my skis.  Haven't checked out the other markets which may or may not have checked in whilst I was dragging my eyeballs across 400 combined showtimes, but doing some averaging on the high ATP grossers, let's go with 36.5m +/- 1.5m and call it a night.

 

Little leery of adding that extra .5m, but it's been a while for most of these films, plus the R-rating, yadda yadda yadda.  Data is probably pointing to 36m, flat, buuuuut... Let's live a little.

 

If I'm even close, considering all of the factors in play, I'll call it a win.

Monday :

 

Like MiniTC4 , Sacramento has already accelerated at two days earlier than usual. Clearly The Final Trailer felt good for the tracking. I think at this point 19K finish for the movie if reviews are good so around 33M

 

 

A new prediction on point for @Porthos?

Edited July 26 by Grand Cine

[Eric Deetz]

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-captain-america-brave-new-world-debuts-gladiator-ii-stabilizes/

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Preview showtimes by hour

 

Time	Shows	%
3:00	2,435	5.87%
3:01-3:59	3,098	7.47%
4:00-4:59	5,022	12.11%
5:00-5:59	3,692	8.90%
6:00-6:59	5,336	12.87%
7:00-7:59	5,764	13.90%
8:00-8:59	4,094	9.87%
9:00-9:59	4,990	12.03%
10:00-10:59	4,596	11.08%
11:00-11:59	2,109	5.09%
12am+	338	0.81%

 

Overall there are 41,474 shows in my sample set of US theaters, showing in 3,095 locations.  

 

Comps:
Dr Strange MoM - 41,962 (3,358)

No Way Home - 40,351 (3,270)

Black Panther 2 - 40,343 (3,315)

Thor Love & Thunder - 35,169 (3,302)

Dr Strange 2 - 34,567 (3,158)