The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers One MTC1

Early Shows(9/18) - 3926/33539 85676.96 150 shows

Previews - 6830/456749 136524.04 2359 shows
Friday - 5562/883992 98559.98 4553 shows

 

So far sales are meh. Presales wont matter for this until release week. 

Sounds at the same level of Elemental and Trolls 3 at this point .

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Megalopolis T-25: 19.54% Awareness, 39.97% Interest

Heretic T-74: 12.75% Awareness, 34.59% Interest

Moana 2 T-86: 55.67% Awareness, 54.02% Interest

Babygirl T-114: 11.38% Awareness, 33.61% Interest

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-4: 75.45% Awareness, 69.11% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The Front Room T-4: 26.28% Awareness, 41.6% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 30% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

The Killer's Game T-11: 25.24% Awareness, 45.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Speak No Evil T-11: 34.51% Awareness, 49.84% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 46% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Piece by Piece T-39: 18.69% Awareness, 35.58% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

Terrifier 3 T-39: 27.11% Awareness, 40.88% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 63% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 65% chance of 10M

[filmlover]

This animated Transformers movie feels like it's going to make similar numbers to the TMNT one from last year.

[WebSurfer]

59 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This animated Transformers movie feels like it's going to make similar numbers to the TMNT one from last year.

Imagine if that’s the case and The Wild Robot turns out to be the break out…

[CheeseWizard]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

This animated Transformers movie feels like it's going to make similar numbers to the TMNT one from last year.

Maybe. Tbh I can imagine it making the same domestic numbers as TMNT, but I feel like it could make it to around 270 or something with international numbers, especially China. 
 

Though Mutant Mayhem is a tough comparison point since it was incredibly hated when it first got revealed and never really recovered. I mean OG fans didn’t like how young they were. Newer fans were still reeling over Rise being canned, and a lot of casuals just seem turned off by the art style.
 

I didn’t get it myself but apparently TFOne managed to claw back interest with its 2nd trailer. 

Edited September 3 by CheeseWizard
Left out information I thought was necessary

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers One MTC1

Early Shows(9/18) - 3926/33539 85676.96 150 shows

Previews - 6830/456749 136524.04 2359 shows
Friday - 5562/883992 98559.98 4553 shows

 

So far sales are meh. Presales wont matter for this until release week. 

There are early shows 14th as well. They are selling better for me.

[AniNate]

I think the ceiling is lower for TFOne than Wild Robot at least. They both have good advance buzz, but Mutant Mayhem I do feel indicates there's a hard limit to what "Saturday Morning Cartoon" movies can do even if critics embrace them. Wild Robot though seems like something the Disney Adult crowd could gravitate to over the course of the couple months until the next family movie is out if the reviews are there, plus Dreamworks has gotten some of their box office pull back with Puss 2 and KFP4. If Wild Robot gets Puss 2 level reviews I think a similar domestic box office is possible.

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-4)

 

21 showtimes/389 tix sold (+39)

 

1.38x AQP Day One (T-4) [9.38m]
1.71x Alien: Romulus (T-4) [11.12m]
2.17x Bad Boys 4 (T-5) [12.10m]

 

 

the holiday weekend is definitely throwing a wrench in the sales pattern. 

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-3)

 

21 showtimes/451 tix sold (+62)

 

1.36x AQP Day One (T-3) [9.25m]
1.70x Alien: Romulus (T-3) [11.05m]
2.09x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [11.65m]

 

Despite the fact that every comp dropped, I would still consider this day to be good. Not great, but stronger than how the weekend went. Tomorrow will be the real test that determines where this will end up. At the least it should sell 70-75 tickets, but if it’s closer to 100 then that would be very strong.

[crazymoviekid]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 51 Tickets

 

Alien: Romulus: $17.59M

AQP:DO: $14.55M

The Nun II: $15.01M

Evil Dead Rise: $6.34M

Halloween Ends: $14.92M

 

Going for $15M rn

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 33201/100621 695106.37 425 shows +2090

Previews(T-4) - 73982/726249 1331188.08 3727 shows +5721

Friday - 80303/1081762 1415534.84 5445 shows +8785

 

Definitely held back due to long weekend. Pace today should be important. I am expecting a big bump. 

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 35933/101731 749345.31 431 shows +2732

Previews(T-3) - 82112/737027 1469637.59 3809 shows +8128

Friday - 92405/1098244 1617989.14 5541 shows +12102

 

Let us see how things go tomorrow post Labor day. I am still sticking to my predictions. I am thinking 60K+ for Wednesday and close to 200K for Thursday only. 

 

[keysersoze123]

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early Shows(9/4) - 23349/40148 401782.43 251 shows

Previews - 51135/567913 747479.41 4139 shows

 

Previews is from early in the day. 

[Relevation]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers One MTC1

Early Shows(9/18) - 3926/33539 85676.96 150 shows

Previews - 6830/456749 136524.04 2359 shows
Friday - 5562/883992 98559.98 4553 shows

 

So far sales are meh. Presales wont matter for this until release week. 

Comping to Kung Fu Panda 4 at the same point

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

THU comp is at $5.51M, without any EA… which for an animated movie in September, seems pretty phenomenal to me? Like this would be par with Lightyear THU in the middle of September (a $50.5M opener mind you), and this will assuredly have a much higher internal multiplier. Obviously it’s no guarantee Transformers has the same kind of explosive growth KFP4 had in its last week, but I like what I’m seeing here.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are early shows 14th as well. They are selling better for me.

Transformers One MTC1 Fan shows(9/14) - 3132/40662 52053.50 305 shows

 

Again its meh for a weekend early shows. But this should do better than Wednesday early shows overall. 

[Rorschach]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 317/3,668 (8.6% sold)

4 IMAX showings: 44/1,552

3 XD showings: 80/714

13 2D showings: 193/1,402

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $25.3M

Twisters: $28.7M

Alien: $15.6M

Avg: $23.2M

 

Friday: 486/5,370 (9.1% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 51/1,940

5 XD showings: 148/1,190

20 2D showings: 287/2,240

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $63M

Twisters: $56.9M

Alien: $75.1M

Avg: $65M

 

Thurs + Fri: 803/9,038 (8.9% sold)

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2: $92.3M

Twisters: $85.7M

Alien: $70.2M

Avg: $82.7M

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Comping to Kung Fu Panda 4 at the same point

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews - 4710/306909 69980.52 2016 shows +1040

Friday - 4405/452087 64904.23 2841 shows +1002

 

THU comp is at $5.51M, without any EA… which for an animated movie in September, seems pretty phenomenal to me? Like this would be par with Lightyear THU in the middle of September (a $50.5M opener mind you), and this will assuredly have a much higher internal multiplier. Obviously it’s no guarantee Transformers has the same kind of explosive growth KFP4 had in its last week, but I like what I’m seeing here.

Nah. This would be nothing like Panda 4. This would be more fan driven. That was family driven and was 1st family flick in eons. 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC2

Early Shows(9/4) - 23349/40148 401782.43 251 shows

 

Previews is from early in the day. 

Strong in MTC2. More shows are needed, maybe 50K final seats for something like 35K+ tix sold or even 40K.

Assuming 60K finish in MTC1, should lead to $3.25M+ early shows I think. 

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice 2 MTC1

Early Shows(9/4) - 35933/101731 749345.31 431 shows +2732

Previews(T-3) - 82112/737027 1469637.59 3809 shows +8128

Friday - 92405/1098244 1617989.14 5541 shows +12102

 

Let us see how things go tomorrow post Labor day. I am still sticking to my predictions. I am thinking 60K+ for Wednesday and close to 200K for Thursday only. 

 

I expect big jump today.

[Ryan C]

On 9/2/2024 at 2:03 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-3

 

Wednesday - Early Access Showings: 2,146 Seats Sold (29.8% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 3,377 Seats Sold (41.3% Increase From Last Time)

= 5,523 Seats Sold (36.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:55AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: We're now in the final week leading up to the first previews and if this turns out to be as walk-up heavy as we all hope it to be, an opening over $100M is practically guaranteed. More screens should be added in the coming days and since reviews out of Venice seem to be solid, this shouldn't hurt the pace of ticket sales at all. Now it's just up to the audience to see if they respond to this film well. If they do, we're gonna be in for something amazing. 

 

I'll track this one again on Wednesday (before EA showings start) and on Thursday just before the first official preview screenings start. 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

T-2

 

Wednesday - Early Access Showings: 2,268 Seats Sold (5.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 3,761 Seats Sold (11.3% Increase From Last Time)

= 6,029 Seats Sold (9% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 1:55AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Didn't think I would be tracking this one again until Wednesday, but I just had the urge to do it again. Everything I said last time pretty much still stands, but I'm seeing some encouraging signs for both walk-up business and further acceleration for pre-sales these next couple of days. 

 

Also, if @charlie Jatinder's $3.5M EA projection is true and we're all expecting at the very least $10M in actual Thursday previews, I cannot see how this misses $100M over the weekend. It would have to be stupidly frontloaded to not reach that and since we're in September, there's like almost no chance of that happening.

 

Edited September 3 by Ryan C

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 167

New Sales: 11

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 4.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 139

New sales: 16

Growth: 13%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 15/11

Early Evening: 100/13

Late Evening: 52/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 52/9

VIP: 89/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

5.759x TFG for $13.5M

2.982x Twisters for $23.9M

2.012x GB:FE for $9.5M

0.542x GxK for $5.4M

 

Average: $13.1M

 

Comps - previews

2.397x Fall Guy for $1.9M

1.209x Twisters for $3.3M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

 Slower day after a big jump yesterday. Probably chalked up to the long weekend effect.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 188

New Sales: 21

Growth: 13%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 4.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 161

New sales: 22

Growth: 16%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 15/11

Early Evening: 112/13

Late Evening: 61/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 6/9

Dolby: 58/9

VIP: 104/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 12/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.917x TFG for $9.2M

2.043x Twisters for $23.9M

2.112x GB:FE for $9.9M

0.468x GxK for $4.7M

 

Average: $10.0M

 

Comps - previews

2.639x Fall Guy for $2.1M

1.491x Twisters for $3.1M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

I'm not really enamored with the pace here. This is a very disjointed week though with schools opening, so things can definitely change. But I was hoping to see stronger growth at this point.

[CheeseWizard]

9 hours ago, AniNate said:

They both have good advance buzz, but Mutant Mayhem I do feel indicates there's a hard limit to what "Saturday Morning Cartoon" movies can do even if critics embrace them

I feel like I should agree, but Mario did gangbusters and that’s like, the most SatAm movie I can think of. Honestly imo, the biggest factor to Mutant Mayhems box office was its animation. The box office for most mainstream animated movies usually have international box office numbers that decently exceed its domestic ones.
 

Idk if it’s been brought up before cus I only pop up sporadically, but most animated movies that have either lower than normal or significantly lower international numbers are usually movies with either unique animation styles that deviate from the norm, or were uniquely American and lacked as much international appeal. 
 

Stuff like Free Birds and the animated Dr Seuss movies all did way less internationally than domestically, and that makes sense cus I’d say they’re more American centric. One is thanksgiving and Dr Seuss apparently isnt that popular outside the USA.

And then there’s stuff like the Lego movies, the Laika movies, the Wes Anderson movies, stuff with far more “out-there” artstyles like Peanuts, Rango, Book of Life and Captain Underpants, the weird Zemeckis movies and even spiderverse were all relatively different looking from the norm and all had international box office numbers that were similar or lower than their domestic counterparts. (So far I’ve only found like, 2 proper outliars to this in Strange World & Lightyear, both of which were standard looking and, at least to my knowledge, didn’t lack international appeal) 

 

Id say Mutant Mayhem is in both categories to a degree, though leaning far more to the latter being the issue. The grungy, dirty, purposefully rough and almost mishapen art style probably heavily hurt its chances.
 

The TF movies usually do pretty well overseas, so I think the clincher in Transformers One’s success or failure lies less in what people think of its writing and reviews, and more in what people think of its animation and art style. Is it overall too different looking to make audiences want to go see it?

Edited September 3 by CheeseWizard