The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Could be, but if early access word of mouth hasn’t kicked in and boosted presales, why would it boost walkups?

 

Well, I'm mostly just looking for positive rationalization, but also Thursday previews have historically tended to be relatively weak compared to the weekend for September kids films, so it is possible people just don't feel the need to buy in advance in more regions right now

[YM!]

It was fucking stupid to have two animated kids movies back to back. One of them always ends up dying. This time though it’s the IP based one. TFO should’ve opened early August on the 9th, or mid-October.

[WebSurfer]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

It was fucking stupid to have two animated kids movies back to back. One of them always ends up dying. This time though it’s the IP based one. TFO should’ve opened early August on the 9th, or mid-October.

Still too early to tell, it could open within +35-+45

[AniNate]

TFOne losing out in this fight would track with the Google Trends data, I'll say. 12 days out (September 8th) TFOne had a relative interest metric of 25 while Wild Robot had one at 50 on September 15th

 

The Wild Robot, Transformers One - Explore - Google Trends

[WorkingonaName]

Transformers without Bayhem is never gonna work.

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

Still too early to tell, it could open within +35-+45

At this point, 30m isn’t happening.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, CheeseWizard said:

Walkups are gonna have to be fucking insane, otherwise this thing isn’t even making it past 30. Are there any other movies with tracking even vaugly similar to this?

 

I always need to caution that I have a small market. But, I also recognize that there's not a lot of tracking going on for this one, so results are probably holding more weight.

 

KFP4 should have been a good comp here. Kids based film that also would attract some older audiences reminiscent of the past. It also occurred during the school year.

 

The problem is that KFP4 overindexed in Canada by a lot. It debuted at the start of the spring break period here. The Thursday/Friday was still a regular day of school. But proximity to the break period might have pushed people to get out a bit early. As well, there was zero in the market for kids, younger or older. We still have a dominant Beetlejuice in the market, which is grabbing older kids. My 11 year old saw it with me this weekend, so he's kind of got his fill for films. He's more eager for Wild Robot.

 

This is my experience with preteens. They're willing to see animated films, but if they're convinced it's aiming older. He didn't see Despicable Me for example, but saw Inside Out. He came along for Garfield and KFP4, but only because we made plans with other people who were keen.

 

This is a film that needed our 9 year old to want to see it. And he's just less of a movie fan. He drove the interest in Rise of the Beasts, but his interests are fleeting and he's not into Transformers these days. If he ends up seeing anything this next month, it'll probably be the Pharrell movie, but even that, he's not sold.

 

I also should consider if I throw in the Garfield as a comp. It performed really poorly before ramping up a bit the final week, starting at T-3. It's been so distorted though, that it changes the average quite significantly.

 

I also probably should have thrown in something like Ghostbusters as a comp. Just eyeballing, that's landing at $1.5-2.0M or so. That's probably the market this is aiming for, but probably won't match that up front interest. But should hopefully have a better multiplier over the weekend.

[CheeseWizard]

13 minutes ago, AniNate said:

TFOne losing out in this fight would track with the Google Trends data, I'll say. 12 days out (September 8th) TFOne had a relative interest metric of 25 while Wild Robot had one at 50 on September 15th

 

The Wild Robot, Transformers One - Explore - Google Trends

In fairness, that could be an unreliable metric since The Wild Robot is also the exact name of the book and the IP itself, whereas Transformers One is only the name of the movie. Plus Wild Robot’s relative interest was likely higher at an earlier date due to its embargo being lifted earlier. 
 

26 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Transformers without Bayhem is never gonna work.

Bayhem was good for the first three movies, and then Bayhem killed any and all goodwill in movies 4 and especially 5. The franchise isn’t in need of bayhem, its still recovering from it.

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

In fairness, that could be an unreliable metric since The Wild Robot is also the exact name of the book and the IP itself, whereas Transformers One is only the name of the movie. Plus Wild Robot’s relative interest was likely higher at an earlier date due to its embargo being lifted earlier. 

 

Well, taking it out to 90+ days they were more or less even, and TFOne got a much bigger trailer release bump.

 

The Wild Robot, Transformers One - Explore - Google Trends

 

Also, an early embargo lift isn't meaningless, especially when reviews are as enthusiastic as they were. It's definitely led to a bump in its presales and Quorum interest I'm sure. In that earlier chart on the day before its TIFF premiere (9/7), TWR still led 26 compared to 16 for Transformers One on August 31.

 

 

 

Edited Monday at 02:29 PM by AniNate

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

Transformers without Bayhem is never gonna work.

It wasn't working with Bayhem.

[Issac Newton]

Devera (T-11 Days)

 

$1.4M Pre-sales ($1.31M USA+$90K Canada)

 

~45K Tix sold in USA

[gojorager]

some marketing at least

[AniNate]

 

[Maggie]

35 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

[filmpalace]

On 9/14/2024 at 11:07 PM, filmpalace said:

The Wild Robot T-12

 

Tickets sold: 26

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 12

 

All tickets that are sold so far are coming from Dolby Cinema showings at one of the two theaters.

The Wild Robot T-10

 

Tickets sold: 34 (+8)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 30%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 12

 

Next update on T-7

Edited Monday at 09:54 PM by filmpalace

[AniNate]

30% increase over two days seems pretty promising 

 

Someone finally bought a Thursday preview ticket for TWR at my theater so infinite increase there. Friday sales currently at 3/4 total of TFOne. (31 to 41)

[filmpalace]

On 9/15/2024 at 10:33 PM, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-18

 

Tickets sold: 200 (+5)

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Joker: Folie a Deux T-17

 

Tickets sold: 208 (+8)

Growth: 4%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

[filmpalace]

27 minutes ago, AniNate said:

30% increase over two days seems pretty promising 

 

Someone finally bought a Thursday preview ticket for TWR at my theater so infinite increase there. Friday sales currently at 3/4 total of TFOne. (31 to 41)

Forgot to add the growth percentage. Thanks for the reminder 😅

[Grand Cine]

@Menor the Destroyer have you data from MTC1 for Transformers One or/and Wild Robot.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

TRANSFORMERS ONE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
543	1946	111376	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.814x) of Garfield $3.45M

(0.977x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.71M

Comps AVG: $3.58M

 

Good numbers, could be $4M+ previews with EA