The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not the Guardians 3 thread. Come on guys, you know better than this.

[TheFlatLannister]

unfortunately lots of agenda pushing is happening with Megalopolis. “Worst presales start I’ve ever tracked” is a lot different from “worst presales ever!” 
but it’s twitter so we should be too shocked. 
 

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun. 

[CheeseWizard]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

unfortunately lots of agenda pushing is happening with Megalopolis. “Worst presales start I’ve ever tracked” is a lot different from “worst presales ever!” 
but it’s twitter so we should be too shocked. 
 

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun. 

Tbh I’d say a lot of people of doing it just cus they hate Coppola himself. I can’t really blame them for hating him but it’s still, it never really feels right when stuff like this is taken out of context. If they wanna hate on Coppola, there’s far better ways to do it 

[Ryan C]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

unfortunately lots of agenda pushing is happening with Megalopolis. “Worst presales start I’ve ever tracked” is a lot different from “worst presales ever!” 
but it’s twitter so we should be too shocked. 
 

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun. 

 

Honestly, considering how stupid and ignorant people can be on that platform, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the people who are pushing those agendas legitmately think that Megalopolis has the "worst presales ever." That's without even realizing or caring that we're still about a week out from its release and that you were just tracking a specific place, not every theater in the world. 

 

I know Megalopolis is probably gonna open badly, but I can tell people that it's not among the worst pre-sales I've ever seen. IMAX showings are actually doing pretty damn well and I'm seeing some regular showings that have a decent amount of seats sold out. 

 

I'm sorry, but these people are gonna be surprised when they see that Megalopolis doesn't open below $5M. I can tell you it's already selling much better than The Crow at the same point. 

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by Ryan C

[ringedmortality]

17 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

unfortunately lots of agenda pushing is happening with Megalopolis. “Worst presales start I’ve ever tracked” is a lot different from “worst presales ever!” 
but it’s twitter so we should be too shocked. 
 

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun. 

 

Ruimy is a confirmed BOT user

[AniNate]

Those news aggregator handles (discussingfilm and Hollywoodhandle types) have been a pox on industry discourse 

[CompoundTheGains]

What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales?  Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night:  Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing.  Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing.  Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing.  Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday.  Danvers MA over 40 tickets.  You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening.  

[vafrow]

39 minutes ago, CompoundTheGains said:

What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales?  Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night:  Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing.  Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing.  Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing.  Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday.  Danvers MA over 40 tickets.  You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening.  

 

It's not up for sale in my area, so I can't offer any input.

 

My recommendation though is to take these numbers, put them in a spreadsheet, and check in on it weekly. You'll know before anyone if it's taking off.

[filmpalace]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, considering how stupid and ignorant people can be on that platform, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the people who are pushing those agendas legitmately think that Megalopolis has the "worst presales ever." That's without even realizing or caring that we're still about a week out from its release and that you were just tracking a specific place, not every theater in the world. 

 

I know Megalopolis is probably gonna open badly, but I can tell people that it's not among the worst pre-sales I've ever seen. IMAX showings are actually doing pretty damn well and I'm seeing some regular showings that have a decent amount of seats sold out. 

 

I'm sorry, but these people are gonna be surprised when they see that Megalopolis doesn't open below $5M. I can tell you it's already selling much better than The Crow at the same point. 

 

 

Seeing the same over at my theaters. At T-8, it has the same amount of tickets sold as Speak No Evil's T-3.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, CompoundTheGains said:

What do people make of Terrifier 3 pre-sales?  Universal Cinema AMC at CityWalk Hollywood with 248 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC Burbank 16 with 218 tickets sold opening weekend.  AMC’s in CA for first showing only of Thursday night:  Norwalk—over 60 tickets sold, Montclair and Ontario both over 50, Orange, Fullerton, City of Industry all over 40 tickets sold for first opening showing.  Edinburg Texas AMC with over 60 tickets sold in first Thursday showing.  Lake Buena Vista Florida AMC close to 70 tickets sold for first Thursday showing.  Methuen MA AMC 50+ tickets first showing Thursday.  Danvers MA over 40 tickets.  You find these numbers scattered throughout the country and still being over 3 weeks from opening.  

Terrifier 3 feels like the kind of movie that might sell better closer to release.

[Roxanne]

So I wanted to try my hand at collecting some data from my local theatre, but I think my market is too small/my theatre is too not-open-enough to produce any actually usable numbers. I've got five movies with advance tickets on sale right now and the only one with more than one THU showtime is Joker.

 

Transformers One: 0 sold of 283, one showtime

Never Let Go: 0 sold of 154, one showtime

The Substance: 0 sold of 129, one showtime

The Wild Robot: 0 sold of 283, one showtime
Joker: Folie á Deux: 2 sold of 566, two showtimes

 

I'm considering expanding my net to include Sudbury, which is two hours away but might actually have some activity to speak of. Is this data usable in any way without a built-up catalog to comp against?

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

So I wanted to try my hand at collecting some data from my local theatre, but I think my market is too small/my theatre is too not-open-enough to produce any actually usable numbers. I've got five movies with advance tickets on sale right now and the only one with more than one THU showtime is Joker.

 

Transformers One: 0 sold of 283, one showtime

Never Let Go: 0 sold of 154, one showtime

The Substance: 0 sold of 129, one showtime

The Wild Robot: 0 sold of 283, one showtime
Joker: Folie á Deux: 2 sold of 566, two showtimes

 

I'm considering expanding my net to include Sudbury, which is two hours away but might actually have some activity to speak of. Is this data usable in any way without a built-up catalog to comp against?

 

I started with one Canadian theatre, and all data is usable to an extent. You likely have a very quiet theatre, which means you might want to focus on bigger films, and focus more on things in the final week perhaps.

 

One, any data you collect, you should keep in a spreadsheet somewhere. Sometimes collecting the data will help more for future tracks, to have a comparison.

 

What I did for a while was actually only track the final day. I'd track what ths sales were in the morning of a films preview day. I'd then see what final sales were, to measure what amount of sales are same day walk ups.

 

Some of it is just playing around to see what's useful. And feel free to ask questions like this.

 

Best of luck.

 

[M37]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun.

My issue is only people misunderstanding - or misusing - the data 

 

As trackers get comfortable, we learn to speak to each other in our own kind of language, both in dialect but in also what doesn’t have to be said. Someone grabbing a post off of a page isn’t necessarily going to have that foundational knowledge/basis of comparison, and run with something that isn’t necessarily true 

[leoh]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

unfortunately lots of agenda pushing is happening with Megalopolis. “Worst presales start I’ve ever tracked” is a lot different from “worst presales ever!” 
but it’s twitter so we should be too shocked. 
 

im speaking for myself here but I don’t mind if people use my data and share it. At the end of the day this is all a hobby for me and it’s fun. 

exactly this is all anti Megalopolis agenda, they changed what you say so they can push their own agenda.

 

btw are you planning to give any update about Transformers Thursday pre sales? You last update was encouraging, Thursday pre sales were performing really close to Panda 4, so industry 30M ow projections might be lowball.

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

btw are you planning to give any update about Transformers Thursday pre sales? You last update was encouraging, Thursday pre sales were performing really close to Panda 4, so industry 30M ow projections might be lowball.

Will probably update transformer tonight. Yesterday was not good locally to say the least.  

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Roxanne said:

So I wanted to try my hand at collecting some data from my local theatre, but I think my market is too small/my theatre is too not-open-enough to produce any actually usable numbers. I've got five movies with advance tickets on sale right now and the only one with more than one THU showtime is Joker.

 

Transformers One: 0 sold of 283, one showtime

Never Let Go: 0 sold of 154, one showtime

The Substance: 0 sold of 129, one showtime

The Wild Robot: 0 sold of 283, one showtime
Joker: Folie á Deux: 2 sold of 566, two showtimes

 

I'm considering expanding my net to include Sudbury, which is two hours away but might actually have some activity to speak of. Is this data usable in any way without a built-up catalog to comp against?

If your local market is too small and if you really wanna track then you can either expand your area to include neighboring areas or pick another completely different but busy area. There is no reason nor requirement to only stick to your own locality, you can choose something across the country for instance if you want. 
 

Any data is useful (nationwide or chain wide data more so than local ones) but yes comps are also important to provide proper context. But everyone has to start fresh and build their own database with which they can comp against. So don’t be daunted or dispirited about starting and best of luck. 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Joker: Folie a Deux T-16: 67.49% Awareness, 61.47% Interest

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-51: 13.24% Awareness, 36.04% Interest

The Fire Inside T-98: 11.08% Awareness, 33.52% Interest

Mickey 17 T-135: 11.08% Awareness, 33.1% Interest

Captain America: Brave New World T-149: 52.72% Awareness, 57.65% Interest

Snow White T-184: 45.03% Awareness, 48.26% Interest

 

Never Let Go T-2: 32.12% Awareness, 42.9% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Transformers One T-2: 49.29% Awareness, 50.78% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 50M

 

Smile 2 T-30: 37.56% Awareness, 46.48% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M, 10% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 42% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M

T-30 Interest: 57% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M, 7% chance of 50M

Horror Interest: 64% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 16% chance of 30M, 6% chance of 40M

 

Heretic T-58: 12.47% Awareness, 35.15% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 28% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 32% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 22% chance of 10M

[AniNate]

Much more encouraging interest metrics for TFOne now

 

The Wednesday fan event sales tonight still seem kinda sluggish where I live, guess will have to see if there's any kind of rush closer to showtime

[ThomasNicole]

The previous TF have very unimpressive presales until very late. I would expect similar pattern for the animated one, let’s see. 
 

Seems to be getting better as it get closer to release 

[filmpalace]

On 9/17/2024 at 10:40 PM, filmpalace said:

Never Let Go T-2

 

Tickets sold: 12

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0,16x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 216K

 

Lionsgate is headed towards yet another W this year

Never Let Go T-1

 

Tickets sold: 22 (+10)

Growth: 83%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0,21x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 275K