The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 9/19/2024 at 1:27 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot Previews (T-8)

 

16 showtimes/92 tix sold (+3)

 

.42x Inside Out 2 (T-8) [5.46m]

1.53x Transformers One (T-8) [???]

The Wild Robot Previews (T-6)

 

15 showtimes/98 tix sold (+6)

 

.35x Inside Out 2 (T-6) [4.55m]

1.63x Transformers One (T-6) [4.56m]*

 

Inside Out 2 is going to start pulling away.
 

* assuming Tone made $2.8m from Thursday previews

[Flip]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:44 PM, Flip said:

Joker 2 Friday (T-17) 2 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/215 tix sold (+14)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 Friday (T-17) [???]

Missed Beetlejuice 2 Friday (T-17) [???]

5.0x Trap Friday* (T-17) [22.1m]

6.52x Alien Romulus Friday (T-17) [75.50m]
 

Added more comps, Trap overindexed (looking like Joker will do the same), and Romulus had a very slow start so I want to see how Joker paces versus that
 

*this was Trap’s first day of sales so I’d expect this number to drop

Joker 2 Friday (T-14) 3 days of sales

 

29 showtimes/281 tix sold (+66)

 

Missed Deadpool 3  (T-14) [???]

Missed Beetlejuice 2  (T-14) [???]

5.30x Trap (T-14) [23.43m]

4.46x Alien Romulus  (T-14) [51.65m]

 

Very strong growth

[AniNate]

For baseline comp purposes, current Wild Robot preview presales at Cleveland/Pittsburgh region Cinemarks:

 

BISTRO NORTH CANTON	0
CUYAHOGA FALLS	1
MONROEVILLE MALL	0
NORTH HILLS	31
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	6
STRONGSVILLE	7
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	2
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	12
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	3
VALLEY VIEW	2
WOOSTER	0

 

Total: 64 sales

 

Edited Sunday at 03:06 AM by AniNate

[AniNate]

Friday sales:

 

BISTRO NORTH CANTON	7
CUYAHOGA FALLS	21
MONROEVILLE MALL	4
NORTH HILLS	79
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	21
STRONGSVILLE	19
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	0
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	29
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	0
VALLEY VIEW	6
WOOSTER	2

 

Total: 188 sales

 

 

Edited Sunday at 03:11 AM by AniNate

[vafrow]

On 9/15/2024 at 9:28 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Wild Robot, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 12

New Sales since T-14: 3

Growth: 33%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 0.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

PSales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 8/7

Late Evening: 2/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  0/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 2/2

Dolby 3D: 9/8

IMAX: 1/4

 

Comps 

0.222x KFP4 for $1.1M

0.293x IO2 for $3.8M

3.000x Garfield for $5.8M

0.923x TFOne for ???

 

Average: $3.5M

 

 

The Wild Robot, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales since T-12: 22

Growth: 183%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 1.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 16/5

Early Evening: 14/7

Late Evening: 4/5

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular:  6/1

Regular 3D: 0/1

Dolby: 8/2

Dolby 3D: 15/8

IMAX: 5/4

 

Comps 

0.252x KFP4 for $1.2M

0.327x IO2 for $4.3M

8.500x Garfield for $16.4M

1.259x TFOne for $3.5M

4.250x IF for $7.4M

0.642x Wonka for $2.2M

 

Average: $5.8M

 

It's been a bit since I've updated this. Will aim to do it regularly this week.

 

Comps are all over the place, and I'd be reluctant to put too much into the average. It's hard to pin down what path this will follow.

 

Also of interest is that afternoon showings are the biggest sales group. Despite the appeal to older demos, it seems to still be attracting families based on that. 

Edited Saturday at 12:23 PM by vafrow

[vafrow]

On 9/20/2024 at 6:31 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 101

New Sales since T-16: 18

Growth: 22%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 5.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 6/4

Early Evening: 65/9

Late Evening: 30/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 36/7

VIP: 36/6

IMAX: 29/6

 

Comps

1.365x Beetlejuice² for $13.4M

0.894x GxK for $8.9M

0.242x Dune 2 for $2.4M

1.329x BB:RoD for $7.6M

0.297x The Marvels for $2.0M

1.031x Alien Romulus for $6.7M

Average: $6.8M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:131

New sales: 15

Growth: 13%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.310x Dune 2 for $0.6M

 

Growth rate continues to be solid. It settled around 5% a day earlier in the week, but moving up to 10% already.

 

I'll probably need to cull the comps at a certain point. I still have Aquaman comjg online in a few days which I'll want.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 108

New Sales: 7

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 5.7

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 8/4

Early Evening: 70/9

Late Evening: 30/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 40/7

VIP: 38/6

IMAX: 30/6

 

Comps

1.301x Beetlejuice² for $12.8M

0.850x GxK for $8.5M

0.239x Dune 2 for $2.4M

1.125x BB:RoD for $6.5M

0.310x The Marvels for $2.0M

1.029x Alien Romulus for $6.7M

Average: $6.5M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total:138

New sales: 7

Growth: 5%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.317x Dune 2 for $0.6M

 

Slight decline against comps after being steady in the other direction. Nothing of concern, but will be key to watch if it's a trend.

[HummingLemon496]

The Joker comps have been steadily rising, here's proof:

 

$4.91M average on September 11th:

 

 

 

$6.30M average on September 13th:

 

 

 

$6.62M average on September 16th:

 

 

$6.70M average on September 18th:

 

$6.95M average on September 21:

 

[WebSurfer]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The Joker comps have been steadily rising, here's proof:

 

$4.91M average on September 11th:

 

 

 

$6.30M average on September 13th:

 

 

 

$6.62M average on September 16th:

 

 

$6.70M average on September 18th:

 

$6.95M average on September 21:

 

We live in a society.

[emoviefan]

Maybe Joker is going to surprise us and be back loaded. Still wont get near the first one OW but it won't be the The Marvels like disaster some were hinting at. For me personally it still looks way more interesting than the first movie.

[vafrow]

I do like the work that goes into those Reddit summaries, but people should keep in mind that when doing an analysis like that, you're not maintaining comp consistency. Not all trackers are updating consistently, and even within comp averages, the make up of each trackers are different day to day (which happens with mine depending on what data I have available).

 

The most accurate way to track a consolidated view is going the M37 route and tracking specific trackers to specific films.

 

That said, I have observed an increase in Joker in my numbers and I believe others have as well, but I just want to caution people on putting too much emphasis on aggregates.

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I do like the work that goes into those Reddit summaries, but people should keep in mind that when doing an analysis like that, you're not maintaining comp consistency. Not all trackers are updating consistently, and even within comp averages, the make up of each trackers are different day to day (which happens with mine depending on what data I have available).

 

The most accurate way to track a consolidated view is going the M37 route and tracking specific trackers to specific films.

 

That said, I have observed an increase in Joker in my numbers and I believe others have as well, but I just want to caution people on putting too much emphasis on aggregates.

In that case, I would go with specifically tracking TheFlatLannister but he hasn't updated Joker in like two weeks

Edited Saturday at 07:26 PM by HummingLemon496

[Menor the Destroyer]

Joker 2 MTC1

 

EA

17706/53095, 178 shows

 

Thu

33743/670405, 3436 shows

 

Fri

24442/992604, 5087 shows

 

 

Under Flash at the same point for both EA+Thu and Fri. Combined Thu+EA is barely ahead of Marvels but Fri is less.

 

Edited Saturday at 09:28 PM by Menor the Destroyer

[keysersoze123]

It has doubled from day 1 presales and has 12-13 days to go. Issue is the number is still meh. I think it opens > Marvels but that is not a good number anyway. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Joker 2 MTC1

 

EA

17706/53095, 178 shows

 

Thu

33743/670405, 3436 shows

 

Fri

24442/992604, 5087 shows

 

 

Under Flash at the same point for both EA+Thu and Fri. Combined Thu+EA is barely ahead of Marvels but Fri is less.

 

Wow so it’s indeed as bad as @TheFlatLannister  is reporting… but 50M opening weekend should be the floor for Joker, right? 

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

Wow so it’s indeed as bad as @TheFlatLannister  is reporting… but 50M opening weekend should be the floor for Joker, right? 

More like the over/under than the floor

[Firepower]

I'm still confident it'll open over 60M when everything is said and done. Don't get me wrong, it would still be a very bad number, but it won't be as frontloaded as The Flash and The Marvels, and on top of that it'll be a significantly better movie than those two which shouldn't hurt either.

Edited Saturday at 10:57 PM by Firepower

[TheFlatLannister]

29 minutes ago, leoh said:

Wow so it’s indeed as bad as @TheFlatLannister  is reporting… but 50M opening weekend should be the floor for Joker, right? 

No way $50M can be the floor. Assuming it goes crazy and makes a strong late push getting to $8M previews, same IM as Joker 2019 only gets it to $58M. 

 

Likely scenario is it makes $7M previews for just O/U $50M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

15 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I'm still confident it'll open over 60M when everything is said and done. Don't get me wrong, it would still be a very bad number, but it won't be as frontloaded as The Flash and The Marvels, and on top of that it'll be a significantly better movie than those two which shouldn't hurt either.

I think it's very unlikely this has a better IM than Joker 2019 considering this is a sequel and will naturally play more fanbase/previews

[HummingLemon496]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I think it's very unlikely this has a better IM than Joker 2019 considering this is a sequel and will naturally play more fanbase/previews

Just wondering, can you post a new tracking for update? for joker

Edited Saturday at 11:19 PM by HummingLemon496

[Firepower]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I think it's very unlikely this has a better IM than Joker 2019 considering this is a sequel and will naturally play more fanbase/previews

Maybe, but it's a weird movie that can pull weird perfomance closer to release. It's not conventional sequel and it seems like it alienated nerds who rush to be first in line, maybe it'll rely more on a casual crowd. I could be totally wrong since numbers are numbers, but I have this gut feeling it'll surprise, even though this surprise would be more of "could be worse" than "amazing".