The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CheeseWizard]

When is the quorum likely to be updated again? Or does it just happen at random?

Edited September 12 by CheeseWizard

[kayumanggi]

 

[AniNate]

Something I've noticed at my theater is while there's still no Thursday preview sales for Wild Robot, there's already more Friday sales than there are for Transformers One. Yes I'm sure the EA and fan event taking much of the immediate interest there but still, definitely feel like TWR is gonna be much more of a weekend performer wherever its Thursday previews end up at.

[Cmasterclay]

Joker 2 falling to 60m/150 would probably close the door on topping 2023 unless it means Venom 3 breaks out to over 100m OW because of it (not impossible, btw!)

[AniNate]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Joker 2 falling to 60m/150 would probably close the door on topping 2023 unless it means Venom 3 breaks out to over 100m OW because of it (not impossible, btw!)

 

Moana 2 being an Inside Out level event would help, also think Sonic probably gonna do a lot bigger than many official trackers expecting (though still not what the stans are hoping).

 

And ofc I think my current stan being well underestimated here, enough that it might very well pick up Joker's slack itself.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[joselowe]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

I guess we'll see if this ends up a highball this time

 

Box Office: 'Joker: Folie à Deux' Eyes $70M+ U.S. Opening (deadline.com)

We hear the sequel is exactly what Phillips set out to make: a movie with musical elements. The question is whether the fans of the $1.1 billion grossing global movie want to see Arthur Fleck and Harley Quinn (here played by Lady Gaga) singing their character’s personal favorite hits. It does look wonderfully edgy

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Moana 2 being an Inside Out level event would help, also think Sonic probably gonna do a lot bigger than many official trackers expecting (though still not what the stans are hoping).

 

And ofc I think my current stan being well underestimated here, enough that it might very well pick up Joker's slack itself.

 

Yup. It makes it more challenging with a bomb, but we were never going to have every film hit expectations for the rest of the year. This summer showed tjat one or two overperformers can carry a lot of weight.

[Cmasterclay]

20 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Moana 2 being an Inside Out level event would help, also think Sonic probably gonna do a lot bigger than many official trackers expecting (though still not what the stans are hoping).

 

And ofc I think my current stan being well underestimated here, enough that it might very well pick up Joker's slack itself.

 

 

 

 

If Wild Robot did 120 instead of the 80 I initially predicted it would be good but not good enough to make up the roughly 150m or so shortfall from Joker missing 300m. Now, if Wild Robot did like 200m somehow, that'd be a start.

Edited September 12 by Cmasterclay

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Now, if Wild Robot did like 200m somehow, that'd be a start.

 

Yes, that's what I mean. See the club I started.

[Cmasterclay]

Would be awesome if the Substance could do 20m domestic total.....seems plausible based on the numbers. Wild for that kind of film.

Edited September 12 by Cmasterclay

[filmpalace]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Would be awesome if the Substance could do 20m domestic total.....seems plausible based on the numbers. Wild for that kind of film.

I'd love for it to happen since I think the movie's phenomenal, but if Speak No evil will open with just 10M, I'm not sure if something like The Substance could get to 20M total.

[kayumanggi]

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

26 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If Wild Robot did 120 instead of the 80 I initially predicted it would be good but not good enough to make up the roughly 150m or so shortfall from Joker missing 300m. Now, if Wild Robot did like 200m somehow, that'd be a start.

200m seems tough. It’d need to open quite a bit higher than 35m for it to have a chance. It’d need to open basically similar to Kung Fu Panda 4

 

[AniNate]

It could do it off just under a $50mil weekend and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs legs. Certainly not impossible, and we've had a history of animated movies exploding in the final presale week this year. This seems as prime to do it as any.

 

 

Edited September 12 by AniNate

[Ryan C]

On 9/11/2024 at 3:11 PM, Ryan C said:

 

Speak No Evil

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 793 Seats Sold (28.9% Increase From Last Time)

(From 15 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 3:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: If this can manage to get to 1,000 tickets sold by tomorrow once the first preview showings start (for whatever reason at 2:00PM), then that would be pretty impressive. 

 

Still looking at a preview gross of about $1M (I'd be very concerned if it was any lower than that) and an opening between $10M-$15M. 

 

Speak No Evil 

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 1,141 Seats Sold (43.8% Increase From Last Time)

(From 15 Theaters)

 

Taken as of 4:05PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: This should've been posted at least two hours earlier. Unfortunately, this isn't pre-sales from all the showtimes because I missed out on checking the sales for the very first showtimes (2:00PM). Let's just say I was very tired and ended up falling asleep longer than I expected to. That's my bad. 

 

Anyways, this increase from yesterday is actually pretty good. It got over 1,000 tickets sold and this number easily would've been higher (1,200-1,300) had those 2:00PM showtimes been included. Don't think the percentage increase would've been 100% from yesterday, but it definitely would've been closer than I originally thought. 

 

Overall, we're still probably looking at a preview gross between $1M-$1.25M. I would say that this guarantees a $10M+ opening, but because Universal chose to start previews for this one at 2:00 and not at 5:00, there could be a slight chance this misses double-digits. 

 

It most likely won't happen (I'm expecting $12.5M), but always be aware of the worst possible outcome. 

Edited September 12 by Ryan C

[jeffthehat]

fwiw I'm seeing what everyone else is for Joker in Indiana. Sales are about half of Dune 2 at T-21. What's worse is Dune 2 was selling around 30 tickets/day at the bottom of its U-curve and Joker sold 24 tickets since yesterday

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Would be awesome if the Substance could do 20m domestic total.....seems plausible based on the numbers. Wild for that kind of film.

Is anyone tracking its presales? Here in LA I see lots of tickets sold, but again it's LA. 

[vale9001]

25 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

fwiw I'm seeing what everyone else is for Joker in Indiana. Sales are about half of Dune 2 at T-21. What's worse is Dune 2 was selling around 30 tickets/day at the bottom of its U-curve and Joker sold 24 tickets since yesterday

 

 

And dune didn't have reviews until few day before right? 

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Speak No Evil T-1

 

Tickets sold: 104 (+32)

Growth: 44%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

Since I don't have any comps, it's difficult for me to know whether this is performing well or not 😅 But at least I have the growth rate to look at, so hopefully this can have solid final day growth like we're used to seeing with horror movies.

Speak No Evil T-0

 

Tickets sold: 162 (+58)

Growth: 56%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

First time tracking a movie done ✅ Looking forward to continue tracking and gaining comps. Do wish this had a bit of a stronger finish.

[vafrow]

I want to take a minute and pause to recognize what a good week this thread is having. It's fun when this community can spot a trend this quickly and definitively.

 

It's admittedly better when it's a positive news story, but it's still an accomplishment. We've had a variety of trackers come through, all with different markets and different tracking styles see things unfold on Joker this week.

 

We've had a lot of experienced trackers take a step back at various points in recent times, but it's always been filled with others stepping in and providing data. And the efforts here truly feels like every data point counts.

 

Also, to a lot of the new visitors to this thread, It's not hard to jump into the frey. Anyone can start by tracking a single theatre and seeing where it goes from there. Anyone wanting to try can get advice from anyone on here. Everyone here is happy to help anyone trying to figure it out.